Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.01B
• Dividend Yield: 5.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): -0.11
• Revenue Growth: 0.25%
• EPS Growth: 101.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 210,844,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,013,629
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,322,781
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 7.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $19.75
• Price Target Upside: 4.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Flowers Foods faces significant financial challenges with recent declines in revenue and profitability, which are the primary concerns impacting the stock. Despite this, the company has made strategic acquisitions to diversify and strengthen its product offerings, which could support future growth. The stock's valuation is reasonable, and its attractive dividend yield offers some appeal. Technical indicators are mixed, reflecting uncertainty in market sentiment. Overall, while there are opportunities for growth, the stock's current financial condition presents notable risks.

Positive Factors

Brand Strategy

Management's approach in creating smaller loaves to help consumers stay within budget and expanding the DKB brand into new formats is appreciated.

Margins

Adjusted gross margins expanded driven by improved input costs and optimization of the non-retail business.

Market Position

The company is well positioned with its portfolio of healthier brands for the continued decline of the white bread segment.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

The likelihood exists that competitors start to step up their own activities, leading to incremental brand support needs for FLO.

Sales Growth

It is tough to get excited about another year of tepid sales growth.

White Bread Segment

White bread remains a large part of the overall business, and at least low single-digit top line growth is necessary to gain investor attention.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is a leading producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods in the United States. The company operates in the food processing industry, primarily focusing on producing a wide range of bakery products, including bread, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas. Some of its well-known brands include Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Tastykake, and Canyon Bakehouse. Flowers Foods distributes its products through a network of independent distributors and direct store delivery, serving retail and foodservice customers across the nation.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products to retail and foodservice customers. Its revenue model relies on a diversified portfolio of bakery goods that cater to different consumer preferences and dietary needs. Key revenue streams include sales from branded products, which often command premium pricing, and private label products that cater to cost-conscious consumers. The company's direct store delivery system and partnerships with independent distributors help optimize distribution efficiency and reach a broad customer base. Additionally, Flowers Foods leverages significant economies of scale and invests in brand marketing to maintain its competitive edge and drive sales growth.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Flowers Foods is facing financial challenges with a recent decline in revenue and profitability, as well as increased leverage. While the company has shown historical strengths such as stable gross profit margins and positive cash flows, the latest results highlight potential risks in profitability and liquidity that need to be addressed to ensure sustainable growth.

Income Statement

Flowers Foods has experienced inconsistent revenue growth, with a decline in the most recent year. Gross profit margins have been strong historically, but the recent EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning with negative EBIT reported in the latest year. Net profit margin was also impacted, showing no net income for the latest period.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that has been increasing, indicating rising debt levels. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a reasonable balance between debt and equity financing. ROE has shown strength in previous periods but is currently challenged by a lack of net income.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has been historically positive, but there is a sharp decline in free cash flow in the most recent period, indicating potential cash management issues. The lack of operating cash flow and free cash flow in the latest year further impacts the company's ability to support operations and growth without external financing.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B	4.39B
	Gross Profit
2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B	2.19B
	EBIT
348.29M	172.87M	303.21M	294.92M	321.49M
	EBITDA
525.28M	345.80M	469.96M	438.99M	380.74M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M	152.32M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M	307.48M
	Total Assets
3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B	3.32B
	Total Debt
1.60B	1.35B	1.17B	1.19B	1.31B
	Net Debt
1.59B	1.33B	1.01B	1.01B	998.39M
	Total Liabilities
1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B	1.95B
	Stockholders Equity
1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B	1.37B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	198.45M	356.54M
	Operating Cash Flow
412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M	454.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M	-73.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M	-84.04M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.65, above the 50-day MA of 18.85, and below the 200-day MA of 20.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POST	75 Outperform	$6.57B	19.70	10.01%	―	7.32%	34.44%
K	73 Outperform	$28.48B	21.25	38.65%	2.74%	-16.16%	41.01%
CPB	66 Neutral	$11.90B	22.99	13.43%	3.76%	9.15%	-31.94%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.94B	14.39	-10.05%	3.13%	1.25%	3.11%
SJM	61 Neutral	$12.60B	22.22	-3.55%	3.63%	7.07%	-181.54%
FLO	59 Neutral	$4.01B	16.25	17.97%	5.05%	0.25%	101.63%
THS	54 Neutral	$1.36B	49.60	1.67%	―	-4.59%	-42.81%

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods Acquires Purposeful Foods for $795 Million

On February 14, 2025, C. Martin Wood III announced his decision to retire from the board of directors of Flowers Foods at the end of his current term, coinciding with the company’s 2025 annual meeting of shareholders. This decision will result in a reduction of the board’s size from 12 to 11 members. Additionally, on February 21, 2025, Flowers Foods completed the acquisition of Purposeful Foods Holdings, Inc., the parent company of Simple Mills, for $795 million. This acquisition aims to enhance Flowers Foods’ presence in the better-for-you and snacking segments, diversifying its category exposure and improving growth and margin prospects.

Flowers Foods Acquires Simple Mills for Portfolio Expansion

Flowers Foods has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Simple Mills, a leading brand in the better-for-you snack segment, for $795 million in cash. This acquisition is expected to bolster Flowers Foods’ growth by enhancing its product portfolio with Simple Mills’ renowned natural products and accelerating its entry into the attractive snacking categories. The deal is projected to be immediately accretive to Flowers Foods’ net sales and adjusted EBITDA growth, while aligning with the company’s strategy to diversify and expand within the better-for-you food industry.