Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.93B
• Dividend Yield: 9.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: 0.26%
• EPS Growth: -19.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 211,554,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,775,845
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,318,017
• PEG Ratio: -0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.96
• 1Y Price Target: $10.67
• Price Target Upside: 17.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.84
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.19B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▼(-1.10% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and higher leverage, reinforced by flat 2026 guidance and near-term balance-sheet/dividend uncertainty discussed on the earnings call. These risks are partly offset by solid cash generation, neutral technicals, and a moderate P/E with a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow generation

Consistent absolute free cash flow (~$319M) and strong operating cash generation (~$446M) provide a durable source to fund maintenance CapEx, strategic initiatives, and debt servicing. This cash base supports a multiquarter turnaround or refinancing effort despite earnings volatility.

Large DSD distribution footprint

A predominantly direct-store-delivery network (~85%) secures shelf presence, freshness and retailer execution, creating a distribution moat. This structural channel advantage supports stable national reach, faster in-store replenishment and promotional execution over the medium term.

Diversified brand innovation (Simple Mills & premium lines)

Active innovation and growth in premium/snack platforms (Simple Mills, DKB) diversify reliance on core loaf volumes. A sustained product pipeline and higher-margin premium mix can lift unit economics and margins over time if execution continues and scale accelerates.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and covenant proximity

Higher net leverage and proximity to a 3.75x covenant constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing risk (notably a $400M bond maturity). This structural debt load can force conservative capital allocation, raise borrowing costs, or require asset/distribution adjustments if profitability doesn't recover.

Sharp margin deterioration

Material compression in net and gross margins signals weaker pricing power and rising input or investment pressures. Sustained margin decline reduces earnings power, limits reinvestment capacity, and heightens sensitivity to commodity and labor inflation over the medium term.

Core loaf category weakness (Nature's Own)

Underperformance in the traditional loaf franchise reduces volume and creates operating deleverage in a core business. Reviving a legacy brand often requires sustained marketing, pricing and distribution investment which can pressure margins and slow recovery across multiple quarters.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake brand names. The company distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates 46 bakeries comprising 44 owned and two leased. Its customers include mass merchandisers, supermarkets and other retailers, convenience stores, national and regional restaurants, quick-serve chains, retail in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products across various distribution channels. The company employs a Direct Store Delivery model, which allows it to deliver products directly to grocery stores and other retailers, ensuring freshness and optimal inventory management. Additionally, Flowers Foods utilizes a Warehouse Delivery model to service larger retail chains and foodservice customers. Key revenue streams include sales from its branded products, private label offerings, and specialty baked goods. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators, which facilitate broader market access and enhance brand visibility. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, product innovation, and an efficient distribution system that minimizes waste and maximizes shelf life.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth and generally healthy free cash flow are positives, but 2026 profitability deteriorated sharply (net margin ~1.6% vs ~4.9% in 2024) and leverage increased materially (debt-to-equity ~1.79x), reducing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the period (from $4.39B in 2020 to $5.26B in 2026), but the growth pace has been modest recently (2026 revenue growth ~2.4% after near-flat growth in 2024). Profitability is the main concern: net margin fell sharply to ~1.6% in 2026 versus ~4.9% in 2024, and gross margin also compressed (to ~45.7% in 2026 from ~49.5% in 2024), signaling cost/price pressure. Operating profitability remains positive (EBIT margin ~6.6% in 2026), but the earnings volatility (notably the 2026 net income drop) keeps the score in the middle of the range.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially in 2026, with total debt rising to ~$2.33B and debt-to-equity moving to ~1.79x (vs. ~0.96x in 2024 and ~0.83x in 2022), reducing financial flexibility. Equity remains meaningful (~$1.30B in 2026) and total assets increased (~$4.18B in 2026), but returns weakened alongside earnings: return on equity fell to ~6.4% in 2026 from ~17.6% in 2024. Overall, the balance sheet looks more leveraged and less efficient than prior years, increasing risk if profitability stays pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow was ~$446M and free cash flow was ~$319M in 2026, both healthy in absolute terms. However, free cash flow growth was slightly negative in 2026 and cash flow has been choppy over time. Cash flow quality versus accounting earnings is mixed—free cash flow was ~71.5% of net income in 2026 (solid), but operating cash flow covered less than half of net income in 2026 (coverage ~0.46), which is weaker than 2024 (~0.75) and suggests working-capital or timing headwinds.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.26B	5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B
Gross Profit	2.40B	2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B
EBITDA	341.79M	525.28M	345.43M	469.59M	438.87M
Net Income	83.83M	248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.18B	3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.10M	5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M
Total Debt	2.33B	1.36B	1.35B	1.19B	1.21B
Total Liabilities	2.88B	1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B
Stockholders Equity	1.30B	1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	319.09M	280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	133.76M
Operating Cash Flow	446.20M	412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-943.15M	-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M
Financing Cash Flow	504.05M	-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.95, below the 50-day MA of 10.38, and below the 200-day MA of 12.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JJSF	64 Neutral	$1.64B	491.43	6.60%	3.53%	0.54%	-24.42%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SMPL	62 Neutral	$1.48B	19.23	5.17%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
STKL	62 Neutral	$764.60M	27.76	9.02%	―	11.31%	99.83%
POST	61 Neutral	$5.06B	13.23	8.69%	―	2.97%	-2.68%
FLO	54 Neutral	$1.93B	27.30	6.02%	9.15%	0.26%	-19.45%

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods Announces Board Changes and Planned Downsizing

On February 17, 2026, Flowers Foods announced that long-serving director and former executive George E. Deese, after 61 years with the company, will retire from its board at the end of his current term and will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. On February 18, 2026, director Edward J. Casey, Jr. also informed the board he will not seek re-election, and, with both departures not stemming from disagreements, the company plans to reduce the board’s size from 11 to 9 members after the 2026 meeting, signaling a streamlined governance structure that could influence future strategic oversight and decision-making.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.

Flowers Foods CFO Retires, Moves to Consulting Role

Flowers Foods announced that its chief financial officer, R. Steve Kinsey, who had previously notified the company on September 19, 2025, of his intention to retire, stepped down from his position effective December 31, 2025. On the same date, the company entered into a consulting agreement under which Kinsey will continue to support Flowers Foods and its subsidiaries as a consultant from January 1, 2026, through at least February 28, 2026, at a rate of $50,000 per month, with either party able to terminate the arrangement on 30 days’ written notice and Kinsey remaining bound by confidentiality obligations, providing continuity in financial leadership during the transition period.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.