Fold Holdings (FLD)
NASDAQ:FLD
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Fold Holdings
(NASDAQ:FLD)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(17.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
The score is driven mainly by improving top-line performance and a cleaner, debt-free balance sheet, but is held back by large ongoing losses and persistent negative cash flow. Technicals remain weak with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation signals elevated risk due to losses (negative P/E). Earnings call commentary adds modest support from product/partnership momentum and capital-structure improvements, tempered by liquidity and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Gross Profit Recovery
A sustained revenue rebound with positive gross profit signals improving core unit economics that can support scaling. Durable top-line recovery reduces dependence on one-off asset moves and provides a foundation to expand margin-capture as higher-margin products (cards, SaaS) scale over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Large Ongoing Losses
Deep and widening operating losses materially erode equity and require external funding if sustained. Even with improving revenue, persistent negative profitability indicates structural cost or scale issues that could delay break-even, increasing financing needs and constraining long-term strategic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Gross Profit Recovery
A sustained revenue rebound with positive gross profit signals improving core unit economics that can support scaling. Durable top-line recovery reduces dependence on one-off asset moves and provides a foundation to expand margin-capture as higher-margin products (cards, SaaS) scale over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Fold Holdings (FLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$63.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)135.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-1898.55%
CountryUS
Employees28
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management - Cryptocurrency
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.72
Shares Outstanding49,831,300
10 Day Avg. Volume184,605
30 Day Avg. Volume135,484
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)3.47
P/FCF Ratio-6.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside134.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$49.67M
Fold Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fold Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a financial services platform that allows customers to earn, accumulate, and utilize bitcoin in their everyday life....
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Fold Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear strategic and product momentum—recorded revenue growth, a strong rise in transaction volumes, major product launches (notably the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card), enterprise partnerships (Steak 'n Shake), and a simplified capital structure—with meaningful near-term financial and execution challenges. The business shows compelling growth drivers and structural improvements, but material risks remain from bitcoin market volatility, widening operating losses, constrained liquidity and staged rollouts that delay the near-term revenue impact of flagship products.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $31.8M, up 34% year-over-year; Q4 revenue $9.1M, up 8% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Severe Bitcoin Price Volatility Impacting Engagement
Bitcoin price fell from ~$124,000 to ~$87,000 by year-end and to as low as ~$60,000 by early Feb 2026 (>50% decline in under four months), materially reducing industry-wide trading and spending activity and contributing to slower Q4 metrics at Fold.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $31.8M, up 34% year-over-year; Q4 revenue $9.1M, up 8% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 growth should be driven by the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card rollout, continued consumer expansion and new enterprise SaaS (e.g., Steak ’n Shake), with transaction volumes and revenue expected to increase progressively through the year though no full‑year 2026 revenue target was provided. Key metrics cited: waitlist >80,000; card economics: flat unlimited 1.5% back (up to 4% for qualifying activity, 2% if paid with Bitcoin), interchange ~2x debit, initial credit lines ~ $20k; staged rollout from hundreds → thousands → tens of thousands of cards. Recent performance and balance‑sheet figures: Q4 added 3,000 verified accounts (total >84,000, ≈+20% YoY), 2025 YTD transaction volumes $960M (+46% YoY), Q4 revenue $9.1M (+8% YoY), FY2025 revenue $31.8M (+34% YoY), YTD GAAP operating loss $27.8M, YTD adjusted EBITDA –$17.2M, cash $7.7M, net assets ≈$63M, working capital –$2.3M (incl. $10M Two Prime loan), treasury 1,527 BTC (1,000 restricted); Q4 gift‑card revenue contribution ≈$722k (Q3 YTD gift‑card/exchange ≈$740k) and gift cards showed ~20% month‑over‑month growth. Recent capital moves: Feb 2026 extinguished $66.3M convertible debt (via sale of ~200 BTC and other non‑dilutive means), releasing ~521 BTC of collateral and removing an estimated 8–10M potential shares.Fold Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 31.79M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.88M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 14.10M | 0.00 | 17.65M | -6.86M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -63.32M | -2.89M | -3.70M | -10.08M | 636.00 |
| Net Income | -69.59M | -1.87M | 4.44M | -11.97M | -120.00K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 153.47M | 52.22M | 165.96M | 12.42M | 225.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.65M | 906.04K | 29.84K | 8.36M | 1.23M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 5.74M | 2.02M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 90.48M | 60.54M | 170.27M | 13.68M | 8.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.99M | -8.32M | -4.31M | -1.27M | 216.22M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.82M | -712.14K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.49M | -712.14K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.97M | 117.32M | 99.81M | -4.48M | -266.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.41M | -113.01M | -94.77M | 6.98M | 268.82M |
Fold Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.28
Price Trends
1.48
Negative
2.12
Negative
3.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
45.58
Neutral
15.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.28, below the 50-day MA of 1.48, and below the 200-day MA of 3.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FLD.
Fold Holdings Risk Analysis
Fold Holdings disclosed 88 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fold Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fold Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $208.17M | 8.19 | 11.75% | 3.32% | 9.10% | 12.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $166.76M | 11.23 | 5.30% | 21.24% | -55.82% | -4.97% | |
51 Neutral | $63.78M | -1.58 | 46.70% | ― | ― | -1898.55% | |
49 Neutral | $214.18M | -6.36 | 6.23% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
FLD
Fold Holdings
1.23
-2.77
-69.25%
WHF
WhiteHorse
7.63
0.04
0.46%
OPBK
OP Bancorp
14.16
3.77
36.22%
FLYX
flyExclusive
2.21
-0.79
-26.33%
Fold Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Fold Holdings Expands Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card Rollout
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
Fold Holdings, Inc., a fintech company specializing in bitcoin rewards products, has expanded its rollout of the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card beyond internal team members to customers at the top of its waitlist as of March 17, 2026. This move ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Fold Launches Bitcoin Rewards Card and Business Platform
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
In 2025, Fold reported revenue of $31.8 million, up 34% year over year, on transaction volumes of $960 million, while narrowing losses remained a focus as operating loss reached $27.7 million and adjusted EBITDA loss was $17.2 million. The Phoenix...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Fold Holdings Signals Upcoming Launch of New Credit Card
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. announced via a post on X that it expects to launch a new credit card in the coming weeks, subject to successful negotiations and approvals from key third-party service providers. The timing and certainty of t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fold Holdings Restructures Financing and Retires Secured Debt
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 25–27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. restructured its financing arrangements by issuing a new $13 million one-year senior unsecured promissory note to SATS Credit Fund L.P., alongside 520,000 common shares, and granting SATS registra...
Shareholder Meetings
Fold Holdings Schedules 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting Dates
Neutral
Feb 13, 2026
Fold Holdings, Inc., a publicly listed company, announced on February 13, 2026 that its next annual shareholder meeting will be held on May 19, 2026. The company also set March 24, 2026 as the record date that will determine which shareholders are...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fold Holdings issues customer letter on 2026 plans
Neutral
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. issued a customer letter outlining its intentions for the upcoming year, including plans related to a forthcoming credit card offering. The company emphasized that the information shared in this communicati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.