Fold Holdings (FLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $72.46M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 135.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -1898.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 28
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management - Cryptocurrency
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 48,307,644
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 184,605
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 135,484
• PEG Ratio: 0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): -19.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -48.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.25
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 369.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $33.94M

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(34.23% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/13/26

The score is primarily held back by weak underlying operating economics and ongoing cash burn despite strong revenue growth and an improved, debt-free balance sheet. Technicals also remain negative with the stock trading below key moving averages and a negative MACD, while valuation is difficult to support due to a negative P/E and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained TTM revenue growth of ~41.5% indicates expanding product adoption and market traction. Over a 2–6 month horizon, above-market top-line growth provides operational leverage potential and supports investments in product, marketing, and distribution to deepen customer relationships.

Balance Sheet Improvement

A clean leverage profile with zero debt and materially positive equity improves financial flexibility and lowers solvency risk. This durable strength gives management runway to fund product initiatives, weather cash burn, and reduces the need for dilutive or expensive financing over the medium term.

Strategic Product Expansion

Introducing an integrated app experience and planning a credit-card product are structural moves that can increase engagement, cross-sell, and recurring revenue. Over months these product initiatives can raise customer LTV, deepen network effects, and support positioning bitcoin as a core financial utility.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Flow / Cash Burn

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicate the business consumes cash to run and grow. This structural cash burn pressures liquidity and forces reliance on financing or equity raises, which can constrain strategic options and slow execution if cash generation doesn't improve.

Deeply Negative Operating Margins

Extremely negative gross and operating margins point to weak unit economics and non-scalable core operations. Even with top-line growth, negative margins undermine sustainable profitability and mean revenue expansion may not translate into durable earnings without structural cost or pricing changes.

Earnings Quality & Higher Financing Cost

Reported net income appears driven by non-operating items, reducing earnings reliability. Coupled with a loan amendment increasing interest to 8.5% and altered collateral, the company faces higher financing costs and collateral pressure, worsening liquidity risk if operations don't generate cash.

Fold Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fold Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a financial services platform that allows customers to earn, accumulate, and utilize bitcoin in their everyday life.

How the Company Makes Money

Fold Holdings generates revenue primarily through transaction fees associated with its mobile wallet services and cryptocurrency transactions. Additionally, the company earns income from its rewards program, where it partners with various merchants to provide customers with cryptocurrency rewards for their purchases. This not only drives user engagement but also encourages spending within the ecosystem. Furthermore, Fold Holdings may benefit from strategic partnerships with financial institutions and technology providers that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach.

Fold Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is strong (+41.5% TTM) and the balance sheet is improved with zero debt and positive equity, but operating performance is very weak (deeply negative gross and operating margins) and cash burn persists (negative operating cash flow and free cash flow). Positive net income appears driven by non-operating factors, raising earnings-quality and sustainability risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew strongly (+41.5%), but core profitability is weak: gross profit is deeply negative (gross margin ~-320%) and operating results are materially loss-making (EBIT and EBITDA margins both significantly negative). Net income is positive in TTM with a very high net margin (~392%), which suggests earnings were driven by items outside normal operations rather than sustainable operating performance. Historical results are mixed, including years with zero revenue and recurring operating losses, indicating a volatile and less predictable earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a clean leverage position with zero debt and positive equity (~$94.7M) against ~$191.0M of assets, which is a meaningful improvement versus prior annual periods where equity was negative (2022–2024) and debt was present in 2023–2024. Return on equity is strong in TTM (~46.7%), but given the weak operating margins and unusual net income profile, the quality and durability of that return is a key risk to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear weakness: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is negative (~-$11.5M) and free cash flow is also negative (~-$11.6M), indicating the business is consuming cash. While free cash flow growth is positive in TTM, it is improving from a negative base and remains meaningfully below breakeven. The mismatch between positive net income and negative operating cash flow points to limited earnings quality and potential reliance on non-cash gains or working-capital swings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.35M	0.00	21.53M	28.88M	0.00
Gross Profit	-44.85M	0.00	17.65M	-6.86M	0.00
EBITDA	-29.08M	-2.89M	-3.70M	-10.08M	636.00
Net Income	28.81M	-1.87M	4.44M	-11.97M	-120.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	190.97M	52.22M	165.96M	12.42M	225.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.66M	906.04K	29.84K	8.36M	1.23M
Total Debt	0.00	5.74M	2.02M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	96.28M	60.54M	170.27M	13.68M	8.95M
Stockholders Equity	94.69M	-8.32M	-4.31M	-1.27M	216.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-11.64M	-3.43M	-5.08M	-1.82M	-712.14K
Operating Cash Flow	-11.47M	-3.43M	-5.08M	-1.49M	-712.14K
Investing Cash Flow	115.27M	117.32M	99.81M	-4.48M	-266.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-117.49M	-113.01M	-94.77M	6.98M	268.82M

Fold Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.75, below the 50-day MA of 2.28, and below the 200-day MA of 3.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.20 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLD.

Fold Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPBK	70 Outperform	$207.65M	8.11	10.99%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WHF	61 Neutral	$151.78M	15.39	3.51%	21.24%	-55.82%	-4.97%
FLYX	48 Neutral	$205.41M	-2.00	―	―	―	―
FLD	43 Neutral	$72.46M	-0.91	-50.72%	―	―	-1898.55%

Fold Holdings Corporate Events

Fold Holdings issues customer letter on 2026 plans

On January 27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. issued a customer letter outlining its intentions for the upcoming year, including plans related to a forthcoming credit card offering. The company emphasized that the information shared in this communication, while publicly furnished, is not deemed filed for purposes of U.S. securities law liability and will only be incorporated into other regulatory filings if specifically referenced, underscoring a cautious approach to disclosure and legal exposure for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.

Fold Holdings Amends Loan Agreement with Two Prime

On November 19, 2025, Fold, Inc., a subsidiary of Fold Holdings, Inc., amended its Master Loan Agreement with Two Prime Lending Limited. The amendment increased the interest rate to 8.5% per annum and adjusted various collateral levels, impacting the company’s financial arrangements and potentially its liquidity management.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.

Fold Holdings Issues Regulation FD Disclosure Update

The news release from Fold Holdings does not provide specific details about the company’s industry, products, or market focus. The release references information set forth under Item 2.02 but does not provide any additional context or details about the company’s operations, industry positioning, or implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.