Fold Holdings (FLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $64.28M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 135.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -1898.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 28
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management - Cryptocurrency
• EPS (TTM): -0.72
• Shares Outstanding: 49,831,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 184,605
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 135,484
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.54
• 1Y Price Target: $3.00
• Price Target Upside: 180.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $54.57M

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-6.54% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance—large net losses and persistent negative operating/free cash flow—despite improved revenue and a debt-free balance sheet. Technicals are also bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD. Corporate events provide some support via product launches and debt restructuring, but execution uncertainty remains, and valuation appears demanding with a high P/E.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

The company reports no total debt and ~ $63M of equity, which materially improves financial flexibility versus prior years. A debt-free position reduces interest burden and covenant risk, giving management runway to invest in growth initiatives without immediate refinancing pressure.

Revenue rebound and positive gross profit

Revenue recovery to ~$31.8M alongside positive gross profit (~$14.1M) indicates improving unit economics at the core transaction level. Sustained top-line growth and stable gross margins provide a structural path to leverage fixed costs and narrow operating losses if management controls operating and non-operating spend.

Product and market expansion

Launching a bitcoin rewards credit card and Fold for Business expands the addressable market beyond treasury plays into consumer payments and enterprise services. Diversified product mix and enterprise partnerships can improve lifetime value, cross-sell opportunities and reduce dependence on volatile crypto holdings over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Large net losses and cash burn

Material net losses (~-$69.6M) and negative operating/free cash flow (~-$16.1M) indicate the business is consuming cash to operate. Persistent cash burn reduces runway, increases reliance on external financing or asset sales, and elevates dilution and liquidity risk absent a durable shift to positive operating cash generation.

Historical balance sheet volatility

Past swings that included periods of negative equity highlight volatility in financial position and forecasting risk. Such instability can weaken creditor and investor confidence, constrain access to low-cost capital, and make the company more sensitive to shortfalls if operating losses persist over the coming quarters.

Execution and partner-dependency risk

Key growth initiatives (new credit card, enterprise rollouts) are dependent on third-party approvals and partner execution. Coupled with recent related-party financing that includes bitcoin-linked triggers and optional additional indebtedness, this increases execution, counterparty and governance risks that could delay revenue scaling or impose unfavorable financing outcomes.

Fold Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fold Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a financial services platform that allows customers to earn, accumulate, and utilize bitcoin in their everyday life.

How the Company Makes Money

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Fold Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue rebounded to about $31.8M with positive gross profit, and the balance sheet shows no total debt with positive equity (~$63M). However, losses remain very large (net income about -$69.6M) and operating/free cash flow are meaningfully negative (~-$16.1M), indicating ongoing cash burn and high sustainability risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a sharp rebound in revenue to about $31.8M with positive gross profit (~$14.1M), indicating improving core economics versus earlier periods. However, profitability remains very weak: EBIT/EBITDA are deeply negative and net income is a large loss (about -$69.6M), suggesting heavy operating and/or non-operating costs overwhelming gross profit. Results have also been volatile across years (including periods with minimal revenue and mixed profitability), which increases forecasting risk.

Balance Sheet

The latest period shows no total debt and a meaningful equity base (~$63.0M) against ~$153.5M of assets, which is a clear improvement in financial flexibility versus prior years when equity was negative. That said, the balance sheet has historically swung significantly (including negative equity in multiple years), and the current asset base is large relative to equity, leaving less cushion if losses continue.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in the most recent period (both about -$16.1M), implying the business is currently consuming cash to operate. While free cash flow growth is shown as positive in the latest year, absolute cash flow remains meaningfully negative and has been consistently negative across the provided history, which can pressure liquidity unless funded by capital raises or asset sales.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.79M	0.00	0.00	28.88M	0.00
Gross Profit	14.10M	0.00	17.65M	-6.86M	0.00
EBITDA	-27.73M	-2.89M	-3.70M	-10.08M	636.00
Net Income	-69.59M	-1.87M	4.44M	-11.97M	-120.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	153.47M	52.22M	165.96M	12.42M	225.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.65M	906.04K	29.84K	8.36M	1.23M
Total Debt	0.00	5.74M	2.02M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	90.48M	60.54M	170.27M	13.68M	8.95M
Stockholders Equity	62.99M	-8.32M	-4.31M	-1.27M	216.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.12M	-3.43M	-5.08M	-1.82M	-712.14K
Operating Cash Flow	-16.12M	-3.43M	-5.08M	-1.49M	-712.14K
Investing Cash Flow	-8.97M	117.32M	99.81M	-4.48M	-266.64M
Financing Cash Flow	14.41M	-113.01M	-94.77M	6.98M	268.82M

Fold Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.37, below the 50-day MA of 1.75, and below the 200-day MA of 3.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.76 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLD.

Fold Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPBK	69 Neutral	$187.92M	8.19	11.75%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WHF	63 Neutral	$162.53M	11.23	5.30%	21.24%	-55.82%	-4.97%
FLYX	47 Neutral	$210.41M	-6.36	6.23%	―	―	―
FLD	43 Neutral	$64.28M	-1.58	46.70%	―	―	-1898.55%

Fold Holdings Corporate Events

Fold Launches Bitcoin Rewards Card and Business Platform

In 2025, Fold reported revenue of $31.8 million, up 34% year over year, on transaction volumes of $960 million, while narrowing losses remained a focus as operating loss reached $27.7 million and adjusted EBITDA loss was $17.2 million. The Phoenix-based company, which closed 2025 with about 84,000 verified accounts and 1,527 bitcoin in its investment treasury, also retired its convertible notes and, in early 2026, launched a bitcoin rewards credit card and Fold for Business enterprise services, moves aimed at expanding its addressable market, improving unit economics and signaling a shift away from being viewed primarily as a digital asset treasury play.

During the fourth quarter of 2025, Fold generated $9.1 million in revenue, an 8% increase from the prior-year period, while total transaction volume slipped 3% to $215 million as account growth moderated with a net addition of 2,000 verified users. Management highlighted that the new Visa- and Stripe-powered bitcoin rewards credit card, together with the bitcoin gift card distribution through online channels and roughly 2,000 Kroger locations and the inaugural Fold for Business partnership with Steak ’n Shake, sets the stage for 2026 to focus on scaling customer acquisition, cross-selling and enterprise contracts despite the company withholding specific revenue guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.

Fold Holdings Signals Upcoming Launch of New Credit Card

On March 4, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. announced via a post on X that it expects to launch a new credit card in the coming weeks, subject to successful negotiations and approvals from key third-party service providers. The timing and certainty of the launch remain uncertain, and the company emphasized that there is no guarantee the card will debut within the anticipated period, or at all, highlighting execution and partner-dependency risks for stakeholders.

The update clarifies that the information shared about the anticipated card launch is being communicated for informational purposes and will not carry the legal status or liabilities typically associated with filed reports under U.S. securities laws. This approach underscores Fold Holdings’ caution in managing regulatory exposure while signaling its strategic push to expand its financial product lineup, a move that could influence its competitive positioning once the card is successfully brought to market.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.

Fold Holdings Restructures Financing and Retires Secured Debt

On February 25–27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. restructured its financing arrangements by issuing a new $13 million one-year senior unsecured promissory note to SATS Credit Fund L.P., alongside 520,000 common shares, and granting SATS registration rights for these and any renewal-related shares. The new note permits up to $25 million in additional indebtedness, includes bitcoin price-based prepayment triggers, and was approved as a related-party transaction due to SATS’ affiliation with the company’s lead director.

In tandem with this new financing, the company extinguished two major prior obligations: a $46.3 million secured convertible note issued in March 2025 to SATS that was collateralized by 500 bitcoin, and a separate senior secured Investor Note issued in December 2024 that was backed by 521 bitcoin and carried restrictive covenants. By February 27, 2026, Fold had returned the collateral bitcoin, paid roughly $27.5 million in cash to retire the Investor Note using proceeds from the new SATS financing and bitcoin sales, and terminated the associated securities purchase agreements, thereby simplifying its capital structure and removing prior debt-related constraints.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.

Fold Holdings Schedules 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting Dates

Fold Holdings, Inc., a publicly listed company, announced on February 13, 2026 that its next annual shareholder meeting will be held on May 19, 2026. The company also set March 24, 2026 as the record date that will determine which shareholders are entitled to vote at the meeting.

The announcement clarifies the key dates for investor participation in corporate governance and provides shareholders with a defined timetable to prepare any proposals or votes. This scheduling information helps stakeholders plan their engagement with Fold Holdings’ upcoming annual meeting and related decision-making processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.

Fold Holdings issues customer letter on 2026 plans

On January 27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. issued a customer letter outlining its intentions for the upcoming year, including plans related to a forthcoming credit card offering. The company emphasized that the information shared in this communication, while publicly furnished, is not deemed filed for purposes of U.S. securities law liability and will only be incorporated into other regulatory filings if specifically referenced, underscoring a cautious approach to disclosure and legal exposure for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLD) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fold Holdings stock, see the FLD Stock Forecast page.