Fold Holdings (FLD)
NASDAQ:FLD
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Fold Holdings
(NASDAQ:FLD)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-35.90% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large ongoing losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these are some earnings-call positives—product rollout progress and cost reductions—but near-term revenue/volume declines and higher operating cash burn keep the overall outlook constrained.
Positive Factors
Clean capital structure
A debt-free trailing-twelve-month balance sheet and restored positive equity materially lower solvency and refinancing risk over the coming months. This gives management optionality to scale via equity or targeted financing, reduces fixed-charge burden, and improves resilience during prolonged market stress.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow means the business is not self‑funding and will likely need additional capital or sustained cost cuts. This raises dilution and financing risk, constrains investment in growth initiatives like card scale, and limits runway if market recovery delays revenue normalization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Clean capital structure
A debt-free trailing-twelve-month balance sheet and restored positive equity materially lower solvency and refinancing risk over the coming months. This gives management optionality to scale via equity or targeted financing, reduces fixed-charge burden, and improves resilience during prolonged market stress.
Read all positive factors
Fold Holdings (FLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)135.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth327.47%
EPS Growth49.69%
CountryUS
Employees28
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management - Cryptocurrency
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.32
Shares Outstanding50,783,350
10 Day Avg. Volume184,605
30 Day Avg. Volume135,484
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)3.47
P/FCF Ratio-6.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.73Price Target Upside75.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$40.98M
Fold Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fold Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a financial services platform that allows customers to earn, accumulate, and utilize bitcoin in their everyday life....
How the Company Makes Money
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Fold Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear strategic and product progress (credit card rollout, gift card traction, new business offerings, cost reductions, stronger cash and a large Bitcoin treasury) against significant near-term operational headwinds (transaction volumes down 31%, revenues down 21%, widened adjusted EBITDA loss, higher cash used in operations) driven largely by a sharp Bitcoin price pullback. Management emphasized disciplined scaling, positive contribution margins across products, simplified capital structure, and multiple upcoming launches that could materially improve revenue and engagement if market conditions stabilize.Positive Updates
Credit Card Launch and Early Traction
Fold Credit Card launched into early access in March and is live with more than 1,000 cardholders (cohort >1,000), with a wait list of over 8,000 potential users. Early cohorts are using the card across everyday and larger purchases, behaving as a primary card and engaging multiple Fold products. Credit lines extend up to ~$20,000 for some cardholders. Management is intentionally throttling rollout to validate underwriting, fraud controls, and economics.
Negative Updates
Material Declines in Transaction Volumes
Transactional volumes were down 31% year-over-year in Q1, driven by a broad industry pullback as Bitcoin prices fell sharply in the period.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Credit Card Launch and Early Traction
Fold Credit Card launched into early access in March and is live with more than 1,000 cardholders (cohort >1,000), with a wait list of over 8,000 potential users. Early cohorts are using the card across everyday and larger purchases, behaving as a primary card and engaging multiple Fold products. Credit lines extend up to ~$20,000 for some cardholders. Management is intentionally throttling rollout to validate underwriting, fraud controls, and economics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance focused on scaling the Fold Credit Card and related platform products: the card is live with >1,000 cardholders (phased rollout), a waitlist of >8,000, and credit lines up to ~$20,000, with plans to expand access in the coming quarters and to scale to tens of thousands–hundreds of thousands as billing‑cycle data validate fraud, underwriting and charge‑off assumptions and as additional capital facilities (a revolving warehouse-style financing) are secured. They expect the credit card to become an increasing contributor to transaction volume, customer acquisition, engagement and revenue; the Bitcoin Gift Card economics will be restructured to materially reduce customer fees (customer fees moving toward $0) and be treated as cost‑neutral upfront while compounding value as users migrate into credit, exchange, rewards and debit (Kroger pilot has onboarded thousands). The Bitcoin bonus program (launched <1 month, live with Steak ’n Shake) is expected to expand enterprise demand and broaden the top-of-funnel. Financial priorities are to scale the card responsibly, manage fixed costs and expand margins — noting current Q1 context: transaction volumes -31% YoY, revenues -21% YoY, operating expenses $13.4M (down ~19% YoY from $16.6M), direct costs -21% YoY, net loss $29.2M vs $48.9M prior year, adjusted EBITDA -$5.8M vs -$4.2M, cash $11.5M (vs $7.7M at year‑end), net cash used in operations $6.6M (vs $5.0M), and an investment treasury of 826 BTC (~$67M) with 430 BTC pledged as collateral — with multiple product launches and capital updates expected soon.Fold Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 30.30M | 31.79M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28.88M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 21.83M | 14.10M | 0.00 | 17.65M | -6.86M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -23.64M | -63.32M | -2.89M | -3.70M | -10.08M | 636.00 |
| Net Income | -49.88M | -69.59M | -1.87M | 4.44M | -11.97M | -120.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 78.33M | 153.47M | 52.22M | 165.96M | 12.42M | 225.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.53M | 7.65M | 906.04K | 29.84K | 8.36M | 1.23M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.74M | 2.02M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 41.98M | 90.48M | 60.54M | 170.27M | 13.68M | 8.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.35M | 62.99M | -8.32M | -4.31M | -1.27M | 216.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.44M | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.82M | -712.14K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -17.76M | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.49M | -712.14K |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.06M | -8.97M | 117.32M | 99.81M | -4.48M | -266.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.53M | 14.41M | -113.01M | -94.77M | 6.98M | 268.82M |
Fold Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
1.56
Price Trends
1.33
Negative
1.60
Negative
2.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
38.03
Neutral
17.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.37, above the 50-day MA of 1.33, and below the 200-day MA of 2.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLD.
Fold Holdings Risk Analysis
Fold Holdings disclosed 99 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fold Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fold Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $210.60M | 6.84 | 12.20% | 3.32% | 7.88% | 29.20% | |
68 Neutral | $142.20M | -59.70 | 3.58% | 21.24% | -58.30% | 2.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
50 Neutral | $234.94M | -2.37 | 6.87% | ― | 14.51% | 28.04% | |
45 Neutral | $56.37M | -0.56 | -70.61% | ― | 327.47% | 49.69% |
* Financial Sector Average
FLD
Fold Holdings
1.11
-3.58
-76.33%
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6.58
-0.82
-11.09%
OPBK
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FLYX
flyExclusive
2.49
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-17.82%
Fold Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Fold Holdings Shareholders Back Directors and Auditor Appointment
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, during which investors voted on the election of two Class I directors and the ratification of the company’s independent auditor. Stockholders elected Bracebridge H...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fold Holdings Reports Weak Q1 Amid Bitcoin Downturn
Negative
May 12, 2026
Fold Holdings, Inc., the first publicly traded bitcoin financial services company, reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 12, 2026 that reflected significant pressure from a weak bitcoin market. Revenue fell 21.1% year on year to $5.6 million,...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Fold Holdings Expands Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card Rollout
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
Fold Holdings, Inc., a fintech company specializing in bitcoin rewards products, has expanded its rollout of the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card beyond internal team members to customers at the top of its waitlist as of March 17, 2026. This move ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Fold Launches Bitcoin Rewards Card and Business Platform
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
In 2025, Fold reported revenue of $31.8 million, up 34% year over year, on transaction volumes of $960 million, while narrowing losses remained a focus as operating loss reached $27.7 million and adjusted EBITDA loss was $17.2 million. The Phoenix...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Fold Holdings Signals Upcoming Launch of New Credit Card
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. announced via a post on X that it expects to launch a new credit card in the coming weeks, subject to successful negotiations and approvals from key third-party service providers. The timing and certainty of t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fold Holdings Restructures Financing and Retires Secured Debt
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 25–27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. restructured its financing arrangements by issuing a new $13 million one-year senior unsecured promissory note to SATS Credit Fund L.P., alongside 520,000 common shares, and granting SATS registra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.