Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
NYSE:FIX
Top Page
Comfort Systems
(NYSE:FIX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$1,484.00
▲(4.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
FIX scores well primarily on excellent financial performance (rapid scale, strong margin expansion, robust free cash flow, and low leverage) and a positive earnings outlook supported by record backlog and solid 2026 guidance. Technicals also support the score due to strong trend momentum, though near-overbought readings temper it. The main offset is valuation, with a high P/E and minimal dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
Consistent, large-scale cash generation (OCF ~$1.19B; FCF ~$1.03B) with FCF converting ~87% of net income creates durable internal funding. This funds modular capacity, share repurchases, dividends, and selective M&A without materially increasing leverage, supporting strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Customer and geographic concentration
Heavy exposure to hyperscalers and Texas creates lasting concentration risk: a few large customers or regional slowdowns could disproportionately reduce utilization and backlog. This limits diversification benefits and makes revenues sensitive to capex cycles of a concentrated end-market base.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
Consistent, large-scale cash generation (OCF ~$1.19B; FCF ~$1.03B) with FCF converting ~87% of net income creates durable internal funding. This funds modular capacity, share repurchases, dividends, and selective M&A without materially increasing leverage, supporting strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Comfort Systems (FIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.85B
Dividend Yield0.2%
Average Volume (3M)469.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.3
Beta (1Y)1.96
Revenue Growth27.71%
EPS Growth80.54%
CountryUS
Employees22,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.37
Shares Outstanding35,174,970
10 Day Avg. Volume479,605
30 Day Avg. Volume469,213
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)13.47
Price to Sales (P/S)3.62
P/FCF Ratio31.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda34.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,235.33Price Target Upside-12.83% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)36.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.95B
Comfort Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Comfort Systems generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the installation and maintenance of HVAC systems, plumbing, and electrical services for commercial buildings. The company operates on a project basis, receiving payment...
Comfort Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated multiple significant operational and financial wins: record backlog, strong same-store growth, marked margin expansion, robust cash generation and modular capacity scaling. Challenges were noted but framed as manageable: longer backlog duration (with execution and labor implications), concentration in data center customers/geographies, higher absolute SG&A spending, and standard seasonal/weather impacts. Management emphasized disciplined contracting, early procurement for equipment, investments in contract-craft capacity, and conservative M&A discipline. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum and strong cash generation outweigh the risks discussed.Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Strong EPS Growth
Quarterly EPS of $9.37, up 129% year-over-year; full-year EPS of $28.88 versus $14.60 in 2024 (annual EPS growth of 98%). Reported net income of $331,000,000 (as stated) and record quarterly and annual earnings.
Negative Updates
Concentration Risk in Technology/Data Centers and Texas
Technology (data centers) comprised 45% of revenue (up from 33%) and industrial/technology accounted for 67% of volume; a large portion of pipeline and backlog is concentrated with a few large hyperscalers and in regions such as Texas — creating customer and geographic concentration risk.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Earnings and Strong EPS Growth
Quarterly EPS of $9.37, up 129% year-over-year; full-year EPS of $28.88 versus $14.60 in 2024 (annual EPS growth of 98%). Reported net income of $331,000,000 (as stated) and record quarterly and annual earnings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to mid-to-high‑teens same‑store revenue growth for 2026 (weighted to the first half), said gross‑profit margins should remain in the “strong ranges” seen recently (Q4 gross margin 25.5%, FY 2025 gross profit margin 24.1%) albeit seasonally lower in Q1, and estimated a 2026 tax rate of ~23% (vs 20.9% in 2025). They plan to expand modular capacity from ~3,000,000 to ~4,000,000 square feet by end‑2026 (weighted to H1) and expect baseline CapEx around 2025’s $155M (~1.7% of revenues), noting that large building purchases could raise that level. Guidance is underpinned by record financials and backlog — backlog of ~$11.9B (roughly doubled year‑over‑year, +$6.0B, ~93% same‑store increase), record free cash flow of $1.0B, operating cash flow of $1.2B, FY EBITDA margin of 16%, and continued capital deployment (>$200M returned via buybacks in 2025, ~440k shares at $489 avg, plus dividend increases).Comfort Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.10B | 7.03B | 5.21B | 4.14B | 3.07B |
| Gross Profit | 2.20B | 1.48B | 990.51M | 741.61M | 563.21M |
| EBITDA | 1.44B | 817.10M | 478.63M | 329.30M | 264.20M |
| Net Income | 1.02B | 522.43M | 323.40M | 245.95M | 143.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.44B | 4.71B | 3.31B | 2.60B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 981.90M | 549.94M | 205.15M | 57.21M | 58.78M |
| Total Debt | 785.95M | 308.60M | 256.77M | 389.14M | 514.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.99B | 3.01B | 2.03B | 1.60B | 1.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.45B | 1.70B | 1.28B | 999.92M | 805.67M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.03B | 737.99M | 544.73M | 253.17M | 157.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19B | 849.06M | 639.57M | 301.53M | 180.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -467.27M | -343.51M | -193.01M | -97.18M | -246.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -287.13M | -160.76M | -298.62M | -205.91M | 70.45M |
Comfort Systems Technical Analysis
Positive
1417.19
Price Trends
1330.54
Positive
1154.90
Positive
936.08
Positive
Market Momentum
15.33
Positive
53.52
Neutral
63.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1417.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1390.41, above the 50-day MA of 1330.54, and above the 200-day MA of 936.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 15.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIX.
Comfort Systems Risk Analysis
Comfort Systems disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Comfort Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Comfort Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $49.85B | 32.26 | 48.52% | 0.20% | 27.71% | 80.54% | |
79 Outperform | $33.68B | 21.70 | 39.04% | 0.16% | 14.11% | 26.26% | |
74 Outperform | $7.99B | 24.39 | 17.49% | 0.25% | 21.45% | 67.31% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $10.05B | 22.33 | 23.72% | ― | -1.28% | -0.66% | |
58 Neutral | $328.54M | -92.28 | -13.58% | ― | 17.16% | 24.10% | |
55 Neutral | $6.77B | -131.50 | -1.14% | ― | -1.81% | 1228.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FIX
Comfort Systems
1,417.19
1,105.94
355.32%
EME
EMCOR Group
756.30
406.54
116.24%
FLR
Fluor
47.14
15.59
49.41%
MTRX
Matrix Service Company
11.68
1.58
15.70%
PRIM
Primoris Services
147.82
94.44
176.93%
BLD
TopBuild
356.91
69.79
24.31%
Comfort Systems Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems Highlights Strong 2025 Results and Growth Outlook
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Comfort Systems USA posted a new investor presentation on its website outlining its recent financial performance, market positioning and growth trends. The slideshow highlights robust 2025 results, including $9.1 billion in r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems Reports Record Q4 Earnings and Backlog Surge
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Comfort Systems USA reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025 net income more than doubled year-on-year to $330.8 million, or $9.37 per diluted share, on revenue of $2.65 billion, with operating cash flow rising to $468.5 ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Comfort Systems Announces Key Executive Leadership Transitions
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Comfort Systems USA announced a slate of year-end leadership changes, highlighted by the promotion of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Trent T. McKenna to President and Chief Operating Officer, effective J...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.