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Comfort Systems
(NYSE:FIX)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$2,010.00
▲(15.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
FIX scores well primarily due to excellent financial performance (rapid scale, expanded margins, low leverage, and very strong free cash flow) and a strongly positive earnings call with upbeat guidance and record backlog. The score is held back by a mixed near-term technical picture (negative MACD and trading below the 50DMA) and a rich valuation (P/E ~42.5 with a very low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Cash generation quality
Comfort Systems generates very large, high-quality free cash flow at scale with TTM FCF roughly $2.16B and strong conversion (~0.85). Durable cash generation supports repeatable investment in modular capacity, M&A, dividends and buybacks, enhancing long-term financial optionality.
Negative Factors
Customer / end-market concentration
Revenue concentration into technology/data‑center projects (now a majority of revenue) raises structural sensitivity to sector downturns, local permitting moratoria and a few large customer programs. Concentration can produce sustained volatility if approvals or capex plans slow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation quality
Comfort Systems generates very large, high-quality free cash flow at scale with TTM FCF roughly $2.16B and strong conversion (~0.85). Durable cash generation supports repeatable investment in modular capacity, M&A, dividends and buybacks, enhancing long-term financial optionality.
Read all positive factors
Comfort Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights how much each business unit contributes to total sales, pointing to where the company’s growth and customer concentration live. Shifts in segment revenue can reveal strategic wins or vulnerabilities tied to specific markets, geographies, or types of commercial customers.
Highlights how much each business unit contributes to total sales, pointing to where the company’s growth and customer concentration live. Shifts in segment revenue can reveal strategic wins or vulnerabilities tied to specific markets, geographies, or types of commercial customers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyComfort Systems (FIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$61.20B
Dividend Yield0.17%
Average Volume (3M)521.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.4
Beta (1Y)1.85
Revenue Growth46.11%
EPS Growth108.71%
CountryUS
Employees22,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)40.70
Shares Outstanding35,194,330
10 Day Avg. Volume528,175
30 Day Avg. Volume521,591
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)13.47
Price to Sales (P/S)3.62
P/FCF Ratio31.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2,184.00Price Target Upside25.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)48.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.75B
Comfort Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is a mechanical services and building systems contractor focused primarily on commercial, industrial, and institutional facilities across the United States. Through a network of operating companies, it provides HVAC...
How the Company Makes Money
Comfort Systems makes money by selling mechanical contracting and services work to customers who need HVAC and related building-system capabilities across new construction, renovation, and ongoing facility operations.
1) Project-based constructio...
Comfort Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive: record revenue, materially higher EPS, large margin expansion, robust backlog growth, and exceptional cash generation drove the message. Management highlighted major wins in modular and electrical businesses, closed an accretive acquisition, raised the dividend, and plans significant modular capacity expansion with attractive reported returns. Noted risks include higher absolute SG&A investment, a portion of Q2 cash driven by advanced customer payments, concentration in data center/technology exposure (with potential local moratorium/regulatory risks), and sizable ongoing capital commitments. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments substantially outweigh the identified risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EPS
Revenue of $3.3 billion in Q2 2026 (first quarter above $3.0B), up $1.1 billion YoY (approximately +50%); net income $442 million and EPS $12.53, up 92% YoY.
Negative Updates
Higher Absolute SG&A Spend
SG&A increased to $287 million from $210 million YoY (up $77 million, ~36.7% increase) as the company invests in people and innovation, even though SG&A as a percentage of revenue declined to 8.8% from 9.7%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EPS
Revenue of $3.3 billion in Q2 2026 (first quarter above $3.0B), up $1.1 billion YoY (approximately +50%); net income $442 million and EPS $12.53, up 92% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and outlook emphasized continued strong performance: they expect full‑year 2026 same‑store revenue growth in the mid‑ to high‑30% range, a full‑year effective tax rate of about 23%, and capital expenditures of roughly 5% of revenue; they also said gross profit margins should remain in the strong ranges seen recently (Q2 gross profit $844M, 25.9%). Key metrics and expectations entering Q3 included record backlog of $14.1B (up 73% YoY, same‑store backlog +69% vs. last year), Q2 revenue of $3.3B (+44% same‑store), EPS $12.53 (+92% YoY), Q2 EBITDA $600M (trailing 12‑month EBITDA ≈ $2B), free cash flow $999M and net cash >$1.8B. They highlighted operational details and allocation priorities: modular bookings ≈ $510M in Q2, modular capacity >3.5M sq ft (target >4M by year‑end and ~5M by late‑summer 2027), Electrical revenue +81% and Mechanical +40% with segment margins of 26.4% and 25.6% respectively, SG&A 8.8% of revenue, operating income $558M (17.1% margin), service = 10% of revenue (+7%), Hunt Electric adding ~ $250M annualized revenue, and a quarterly dividend up $0.10 to $0.90 while continuing to pursue CapEx, acquisitions and opportunistic buybacks.Comfort Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.23B | 9.10B | 7.03B | 5.21B | 4.14B | 3.07B |
| Gross Profit | 2.88B | 2.20B | 1.48B | 990.51M | 741.61M | 563.21M |
| EBITDA | 1.96B | 1.44B | 817.10M | 478.63M | 329.30M | 264.20M |
| Net Income | 1.43B | 1.02B | 522.43M | 323.40M | 245.95M | 143.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.49B | 6.44B | 4.71B | 3.31B | 2.60B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.85B | 981.90M | 549.94M | 205.15M | 57.21M | 58.78M |
| Total Debt | 328.03M | 785.95M | 308.60M | 256.77M | 389.14M | 514.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.27B | 3.99B | 3.01B | 2.03B | 1.60B | 1.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.22B | 2.45B | 1.70B | 1.28B | 999.92M | 805.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.16B | 1.03B | 737.99M | 544.73M | 253.17M | 157.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.55B | 1.19B | 849.06M | 639.57M | 301.53M | 180.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -751.75M | -467.27M | -343.51M | -193.01M | -97.18M | -246.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -275.23M | -287.13M | -160.76M | -298.62M | -205.91M | 70.45M |
Comfort Systems Technical Analysis
Positive
1733.60
Price Trends
1799.12
Negative
1753.94
Negative
1433.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-22.17
Negative
50.05
Neutral
41.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1733.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1714.70, below the 50-day MA of 1799.12, and above the 200-day MA of 1433.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -22.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIX.
Comfort Systems Risk Analysis
Comfort Systems disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Comfort Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Comfort Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $36.76B | 25.98 | 38.42% | 0.19% | 18.92% | 33.51% | |
77 Outperform | $61.20B | 42.42 | 53.55% | 0.15% | 46.11% | 108.71% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $330.29M | -22.06 | -10.79% | ― | 13.88% | 34.22% | |
58 Neutral | $6.96B | -4.34 | -57.08% | ― | -4.77% | -151.32% | |
58 Neutral | $4.39B | 31.34 | 8.46% | 0.37% | 5.12% | -42.27% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FIX
Comfort Systems
1,727.64
1,039.19
150.95%
EME
EMCOR Group
831.23
222.69
36.59%
FLR
Fluor
52.33
10.78
25.94%
MTRX
Matrix Service Company
11.66
-3.12
-21.11%
PRIM
Primoris Services
80.87
-29.96
-27.03%
Comfort Systems Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Comfort Systems Highlights Strong 2026 Growth and Backlog
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Comfort Systems USA posted a detailed investor presentation outlining year‑to‑date 2026 performance and strategic positioning, underscoring strong growth in revenue, earnings and adjusted EBITDA. The materials showed...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems USA Posts Record Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Comfort Systems USA reported record second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026, highlighted by a sharp jump in profitability and cash generation. Net income for the quarter rose to $441.6 million from $230.8 million a year earlier, with diluted ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Comfort Systems Elevates Leadership with New COO Appointment
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Comfort Systems USA announced that Regional Vice President – Atlantic Region Craig Sasser will be promoted to Chief Operating Officer effective July 1, 2026, reflecting his long tenure in mechanical, electrical and plumbing...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Comfort Systems Shareholders Endorse Board, Auditor and Pay
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 18, 2026, Comfort Systems reported a strong turnout, with 31.2 million shares represented, constituting an 88.74% quorum of its 35.2 million outstanding shares. Stockholders elected all ten directo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.