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Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
NYSE:FIX

Comfort Systems (FIX) AI Stock Analysis

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FIX

Comfort Systems

(NYSE:FIX)

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Outperform 80 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$1,083.00
▲(13.91% Upside)
Comfort Systems USA's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call results. The company's robust revenue growth, efficient cash flow management, and strategic acquisitions contribute significantly to its high score. However, the valuation suggests the stock is relatively expensive, which slightly offsets the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth of 35% year-over-year underscores Comfort Systems' strong market demand and effective business strategies, indicating a robust position in the industry and potential for sustained growth.
Cash Generation
Strong cash generation with over $500 million in free cash flow supports Comfort Systems' ability to invest in growth opportunities, reduce debt, and return capital to shareholders, enhancing long-term financial stability.
Leadership Transition
The appointment of Trent T. McKenna as President and COO reflects strategic succession planning, ensuring leadership continuity and potentially driving sustained operational success and strategic growth initiatives.
Negative Factors
Increased SG&A Expenses
Rising SG&A expenses could pressure profit margins if not managed effectively, potentially impacting long-term profitability and operational efficiency.
Manufacturing Revenue Decline
A decline in manufacturing revenue may indicate challenges in this segment, which could affect overall revenue diversification and growth if not addressed.
Valuation Concerns
High valuation metrics could limit stock price appreciation potential, making the stock less attractive to value-focused investors and potentially impacting future capital raising efforts.

Comfort Systems (FIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Comfort Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionComfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is a leading provider of mechanical services and solutions, specializing in HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), plumbing, and electrical services primarily for commercial and industrial clients. The company operates through a network of subsidiaries across various regions, focusing on delivering high-quality installation, maintenance, and repair services. Comfort Systems aims to enhance building efficiency and comfort while ensuring compliance with industry standards and regulations.
How the Company Makes MoneyComfort Systems generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the installation and maintenance of HVAC systems, plumbing, and electrical services for commercial buildings. The company operates on a project basis, receiving payments at various stages of project completion, as well as through ongoing service contracts that provide recurring revenue. Additionally, Comfort Systems benefits from partnerships with equipment manufacturers and suppliers, allowing them to offer competitive pricing and innovative solutions to their clients. The company also invests in technology and training, positioning itself to capture emerging opportunities in energy efficiency and sustainable building practices, which contribute to its overall earnings.

Comfort Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Comfort Systems USA reported a strong third quarter with record earnings and significant revenue growth across segments, driven by robust backlog and strategic acquisitions. While there are some challenges in managing increased SG&A expenses and a decline in manufacturing revenues, the overall outlook remains positive due to strong demand and effective capital allocation.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Earnings per Share
Comfort Systems USA earned $8.25 per share in Q3 2025, which is double the earnings from the same quarter last year.
Significant Revenue Growth
Q3 2025 revenue increased by 35% to $2.5 billion, with the electrical segment revenue growing by 71% and mechanical revenue by 26%.
Remarkable Backlog Growth
The backlog reached a new high of $9.4 billion, a 65% year-over-year increase, with $3.7 billion more backlog than last year at this time.
Strong Free Cash Flow
Quarterly free cash flow was over $500 million, with $519 million generated in Q3 2025 and year-to-date free cash flow of $632 million.
Successful Acquisitions
Acquisition of FZ Electrical and Meisner Electric, adding over $200 million in incremental annual revenue and $15-$20 million of annual EBITDA.
Increased Dividend
The quarterly dividend was increased by 20% to $0.60 per share.
Negative Updates
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses rose to $230 million, representing 9.4% of revenue, compared to 9.9% of revenue in Q3 2024, mainly from investments in people.
Challenges in Manufacturing Revenue
Manufacturing revenues declined on a percentage basis, although demand remains good but overshadowed by more compelling data center opportunities.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Comfort Systems USA reported impressive financial results, driven by strong demand and exceptional execution. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $8.25, which is a significant increase from the previous year's EPS of $4.09. Revenue for the quarter reached $2.5 billion, marking a 35% increase year-over-year, with the electrical segment growing by 71% and the mechanical segment by 26%. The company also reported a record backlog of $9.4 billion, a $3.7 billion increase from the same period last year. Comfort Systems USA saw a 74% rise in quarterly EBITDA to $414 million, contributing to a trailing 12-month EBITDA of $1.25 billion. Free cash flow for the quarter was $519 million, bolstered by strong bookings and favorable project developments. The company also announced a 20% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.60 per share and the acquisition of two companies, FZ Electrical and Meisner Electric, which are expected to add over $200 million in annual revenue. Despite industry challenges, Comfort Systems USA remains optimistic about continued growth and strong performance in 2025 and 2026, driven by ongoing strength in industrial and technology sectors.

Comfort Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Comfort Systems exhibits robust financial performance with strong revenue growth, efficient cash flow management, and a solid balance sheet. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth with an 8.31% increase in the TTM, supported by improving profit margins and a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Comfort Systems has demonstrated strong revenue growth with an 8.31% increase in the TTM, supported by improving gross and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating efficient operational management. The company's consistent revenue growth trajectory over the years highlights its robust market position.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in the TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is impressive at 43.59%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a strong asset base relative to liabilities.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant 42.39% growth in free cash flow, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, reflecting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio further supports the company's ability to generate cash relative to its earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.32B7.03B5.21B4.14B3.07B2.86B
Gross Profit1.95B1.48B990.51M741.61M563.21M546.98M
EBITDA1.22B817.10M478.63M329.30M264.20M259.18M
Net Income837.62M522.43M323.40M245.95M143.35M150.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.78B4.71B3.31B2.60B2.21B1.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments881.22M549.94M205.15M57.21M58.78M54.90M
Total Debt423.74M308.60M256.77M389.14M514.78M332.89M
Total Liabilities3.54B3.01B2.03B1.60B1.40B1.06B
Stockholders Equity2.23B1.70B1.28B999.92M805.67M696.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow798.79M737.99M544.73M253.17M157.82M262.38M
Operating Cash Flow928.28M849.06M639.57M301.53M180.15M286.51M
Investing Cash Flow-275.49M-343.51M-193.01M-97.18M-246.72M-207.80M
Financing Cash Flow-207.85M-160.76M-298.62M-205.91M70.45M-74.60M

Comfort Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price950.79
Price Trends
50DMA
934.69
Positive
100DMA
840.39
Positive
200DMA
645.54
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.62
Positive
RSI
50.12
Neutral
STOCH
38.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 950.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 966.03, above the 50-day MA of 934.69, and above the 200-day MA of 645.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIX.

Comfort Systems Risk Analysis

Comfort Systems disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Comfort Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Comfort Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$33.18B39.8443.84%0.20%27.71%80.54%
75
Outperform
$6.76B24.7418.56%0.25%21.45%67.31%
73
Outperform
$27.37B24.5937.10%0.16%14.11%26.26%
68
Neutral
$11.98B21.8126.18%-1.28%-0.66%
64
Neutral
$6.59B2.0791.03%-1.81%1228.51%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
47
Neutral
$329.90M-13.80-16.33%17.16%24.10%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FIX
Comfort Systems
950.79
515.50
118.43%
EME
EMCOR Group
621.84
159.26
34.43%
FLR
Fluor
40.79
-9.90
-19.53%
MTRX
Matrix Service Company
11.83
-0.27
-2.23%
PRIM
Primoris Services
128.20
48.11
60.07%
BLD
TopBuild
429.53
117.09
37.48%

Comfort Systems Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Comfort Systems Announces Key Executive Leadership Transitions
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Comfort Systems USA announced a slate of year-end leadership changes, highlighted by the promotion of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Trent T. McKenna to President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 1, 2026, with a revised compensation package that includes a higher base salary, an increased bonus opportunity and a substantial long-term incentive award. The company also disclosed that long-serving Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Laura F. Howell will retire as of December 31, 2025 after more than 11 years with the firm, remaining on as a Senior Executive Advisor in 2026, while Associate General Counsel and Assistant Corporate Secretary Rachel R. Eslicker will step into Howell’s role, moves that underscore Comfort Systems’ ongoing succession planning, leadership continuity and emphasis on a smooth transition for its legal and executive functions.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems Releases Investor Presentation Highlighting Growth
Positive
Oct 28, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. released an investor presentation on its website, showcasing financial information using non-GAAP measures to provide insights into its performance. The presentation highlighted the company’s strong market position, with a focus on technology, life sciences, and energy storage sectors, and detailed its financial performance, including a year-to-date revenue of $6.46 billion and a gross profit of $1.52 billion. The company emphasized its history of profitable growth and cash flow, as well as its strategic focus on modular construction and service projects.

M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Comfort Systems USA announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a significant increase in net income to $291.6 million and revenue to $2.45 billion compared to the same period in 2024. The company also achieved a record backlog of $9.38 billion and completed the acquisition of two electrical companies, enhancing its market presence and anticipating over $200 million in additional annual revenue.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 20, 2025