Comfort Systems (FIX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.54B
• Dividend Yield: 0.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 392.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 55.9
• Beta (1Y): 2.03
• Revenue Growth: 27.71%
• EPS Growth: 80.54%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 9.37
• Shares Outstanding: 35,271,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 443,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 392,433
• PEG Ratio: 0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 31.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.81
• 1Y Price Target: $1,235.33
• Price Target Upside: -15.52% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 30.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.17B

• Rating: 82 Outperform
• Price Target: $1,696.00 ▲(15.99% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

FIX scores well primarily on excellent financial performance (rapid scale, strong margin expansion, robust free cash flow, and low leverage) and a positive earnings outlook supported by record backlog and solid 2026 guidance. Technicals also support the score due to strong trend momentum, though near-overbought readings temper it. The main offset is valuation, with a high P/E and minimal dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Robust cash generation

Very strong operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility. Sustained FCF near $1B supports recurring dividends, buybacks, disciplined M&A and capacity investments without materially raising leverage, reducing financing risk and enabling long-term capital allocation.

Record backlog and demand visibility

A record, highly elevated backlog gives multi-year revenue visibility and underpins mid‑to‑high‑teens same‑store growth guidance. Firm backlog supports capacity planning, stable utilization of modular facilities and smoother revenue cadence across project cycles.

Margin expansion and profitability

Material margin expansion reflects improved pricing, scale and operational efficiencies across services and modular work. Higher, sustainable margins drive strong ROE and cash conversion, creating durable earnings power beyond cyclical revenue swings.

Negative Factors

Customer and geographic concentration

Heavy exposure to a single end market and regions increases revenue volatility and counterparty risk. If hyperscaler spending or a regional market softens, the company could see outsized demand swings and bargaining pressure, stressing margins and utilization.

Extended backlog duration raises execution risk

Longer horizon between booking and revenue exposes contracts to future inflation, labor-cost escalation and supply-chain shifts. That timing mismatch can compress margins, require re-contracting or additional procurement costs, challenging multi-year margin visibility.

Labor scarcity and rising operating costs

Skilled-craft scarcity and higher SG&A indicate persistent cost pressure and execution complexity. Workforce tightness drives wage inflation and reliance on contractors, which can raise margins' breakeven and increase variability in project delivery and profitability over time.

Comfort Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. The company offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. It also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of MEP systems in existing buildings. In addition, the company provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. It serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional MEP markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Comfort Systems generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the installation and maintenance of HVAC systems, plumbing, and electrical services for commercial buildings. The company operates on a project basis, receiving payments at various stages of project completion, as well as through ongoing service contracts that provide recurring revenue. Additionally, Comfort Systems benefits from partnerships with equipment manufacturers and suppliers, allowing them to offer competitive pricing and innovative solutions to their clients. The company also invests in technology and training, positioning itself to capture emerging opportunities in energy efficiency and sustainable building practices, which contribute to its overall earnings.

Comfort Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year growth and profitability: revenue scaled to ~$9.1B (2025) with meaningful margin expansion (gross margin ~24%, net margin ~11%) and ~$1.0B net income. Balance sheet leverage remains low (debt-to-equity ~0.18) with very strong ROE (~42%). Cash flow is robust (2025 OCF ~$1.19B; FCF ~$1.03B; ~87% of net income), with the main watch items being periodic working-capital/timing effects and a rise in absolute debt (still modest versus equity).

Income Statement

Comfort Systems shows strong and accelerating profitability alongside solid top-line momentum. Revenue rose from ~$2.9B (2020) to ~$9.1B (2025), with 2025 revenue up ~9% year over year after a very strong 2024. Profitability improved meaningfully over the period: gross margin expanded to ~24% (from ~19% in 2020) and net margin increased to ~11% (from ~5% in 2020), driving net income to ~$1.0B in 2025 (vs. ~$150M in 2020). A minor weakness is some inconsistency in the operating profit margin data (2025 operating margin appears missing/zero), but the overall earnings trajectory and margin expansion are clearly positive.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative and improving. Leverage is low with debt-to-equity around ~0.18 in 2024–2025 (down substantially from ~0.64 in 2021), while equity has grown to ~$2.45B on ~$6.44B of assets in 2025. Returns to shareholders are very strong (return on equity ~42% in 2025, up from ~18–31% in prior years), reflecting both higher profitability and efficient capital use. The main watch item is that debt has risen in absolute dollars in 2025 versus 2024, but it remains modest relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and strengthening. Operating cash flow increased to ~$1.19B in 2025 (from ~$0.85B in 2024 and ~$0.29B in 2020), and free cash flow reached ~$1.03B in 2025 with strong growth (~29% year over year). Free cash flow conversion is healthy, with free cash flow running at ~87% of net income in both 2024 and 2025, indicating earnings quality is solid. A weakness is that cash flow coverage metrics shown are relatively low and not improving meaningfully, suggesting working-capital needs or timing effects may periodically dampen cash conversion despite high absolute cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.10B	7.03B	5.21B	4.14B	3.07B
Gross Profit	2.20B	1.48B	990.51M	741.61M	563.21M
EBITDA	1.45B	817.10M	478.63M	329.30M	264.20M
Net Income	1.02B	522.43M	323.40M	245.95M	143.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.44B	4.71B	3.31B	2.60B	2.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	981.90M	549.94M	205.15M	57.21M	58.78M
Total Debt	447.82M	308.60M	256.77M	389.14M	514.78M
Total Liabilities	3.99B	3.01B	2.03B	1.60B	1.40B
Stockholders Equity	2.45B	1.70B	1.28B	999.92M	805.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.03B	737.99M	544.73M	253.17M	157.82M
Operating Cash Flow	1.19B	849.06M	639.57M	301.53M	180.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-467.27M	-343.51M	-193.01M	-97.18M	-246.72M
Financing Cash Flow	-287.13M	-160.76M	-298.62M	-205.91M	70.45M

Comfort Systems Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1462.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1462.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1239.96, above the 50-day MA of 1100.48, and above the 200-day MA of 802.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 84.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIX.

Comfort Systems Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIX	82 Outperform	$46.54B	55.88	49.24%	0.20%	27.71%	80.54%
PRIM	75 Outperform	$8.67B	31.70	18.56%	0.25%	21.45%	67.31%
EME	73 Outperform	$35.05B	31.49	37.10%	0.16%	14.11%	26.26%
BLD	68 Neutral	$14.96B	26.54	26.18%	―	-1.28%	-0.66%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MTRX	58 Neutral	$311.66M	-16.10	-16.33%	―	17.16%	24.10%
FLR	55 Neutral	$8.16B	―	-1.42%	―	-1.81%	1228.51%

Comfort Systems Corporate Events

Comfort Systems Highlights Strong 2025 Results and Growth Outlook

On February 20, 2026, Comfort Systems USA posted a new investor presentation on its website outlining its recent financial performance, market positioning and growth trends. The slideshow highlights robust 2025 results, including $9.1 billion in revenue, $1.02 billion in net income, strong adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, as well as a record $11.9 billion backlog concentrated in technology, manufacturing and other resilient end markets.

Management emphasizes the company’s long record of positive free cash flow, low leverage, and disciplined capital allocation, with substantial spending on acquisitions alongside rising dividends and share repurchases. The materials also underscore continued expansion of its national footprint, growing recurring service and maintenance base, and investments in modular off-site construction and workforce initiatives, factors that collectively support its competitive position in the MEP contracting sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (FIX) stock is a Buy with a $1196.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Comfort Systems stock, see the FIX Stock Forecast page.

Comfort Systems Reports Record Q4 Earnings and Backlog Surge

On February 19, 2026, Comfort Systems USA reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025 net income more than doubled year-on-year to $330.8 million, or $9.37 per diluted share, on revenue of $2.65 billion, with operating cash flow rising to $468.5 million. Backlog surged to $11.94 billion at December 31, 2025, nearly doubling from a year earlier and reflecting what management described as unprecedented demand and strong execution across its operations.

For full-year 2025, the company’s net income climbed to $1.02 billion, or $28.88 per diluted share, on revenue of $9.10 billion, while operating cash flow exceeded $1.19 billion, all sharply higher than 2024 levels. Management highlighted that both annual net income and cash flow surpassed $1 billion for the first time, strengthening the company’s financial position and underpinning an optimistic outlook for continued growth momentum into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (FIX) stock is a Buy with a $1315.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Comfort Systems stock, see the FIX Stock Forecast page.

Comfort Systems Announces Key Executive Leadership Transitions

On December 19, 2025, Comfort Systems USA announced a slate of year-end leadership changes, highlighted by the promotion of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Trent T. McKenna to President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 1, 2026, with a revised compensation package that includes a higher base salary, an increased bonus opportunity and a substantial long-term incentive award. The company also disclosed that long-serving Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Laura F. Howell will retire as of December 31, 2025 after more than 11 years with the firm, remaining on as a Senior Executive Advisor in 2026, while Associate General Counsel and Assistant Corporate Secretary Rachel R. Eslicker will step into Howell’s role, moves that underscore Comfort Systems’ ongoing succession planning, leadership continuity and emphasis on a smooth transition for its legal and executive functions.

The most recent analyst rating on (FIX) stock is a Buy with a $1200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Comfort Systems stock, see the FIX Stock Forecast page.