TopBuild (BLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 286.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: -1.28%
• EPS Growth: -0.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,984
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 5.36
• Shares Outstanding: 28,071,651
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 214,212
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 286,369
• PEG Ratio: 3.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.03
• 1Y Price Target: $485.30
• Price Target Upside: 11.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.42B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $487.00 ▲(11.43% Upside)

TopBuild's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive technical indicators. The company's strategic acquisitions and market expansion efforts are promising, but high leverage and declining free cash flow growth pose risks. The valuation is reasonable, and the earnings call provides a balanced view of opportunities and challenges. Investors should monitor cash flow improvements and leverage management closely.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of Progressive Roofing and other companies strengthens TopBuild's market position and diversifies revenue streams, enhancing long-term growth prospects.

Commercial and Industrial Growth

Growth in commercial and industrial segments offsets residential weakness, indicating resilience and potential for sustained revenue in diverse markets.

Improved EBITDA Margins

Improved EBITDA margins reflect effective cost management and operational efficiency, supporting profitability and financial health over the long term.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can pose financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.

Decline in Residential Sales

Weakness in residential sales highlights vulnerability to sector-specific downturns, potentially affecting revenue consistency and growth.

Declining Free Cash Flow

Reduced free cash flow limits the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, potentially hindering long-term strategic initiatives.

TopBuild Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TopBuild Corp (BLD) is a leading installer and distributor of insulation and building material services in the United States. The company operates through two primary segments: Installation and Distribution. TopBuild offers a comprehensive portfolio of products and services, including insulation installation, residential and commercial building solutions, and energy-efficient products. By focusing on innovation and sustainability, TopBuild aims to enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impact in the construction sector.

How the Company Makes Money

TopBuild generates revenue primarily through its Installation and Distribution segments. The Installation segment provides insulation installation services for residential and commercial construction projects, making it a significant source of recurring revenue. The Distribution segment involves the sale of insulation products and other building materials to contractors and retail customers. Key revenue streams include direct sales from installations, product sales from distribution centers, and value-added services such as energy audits and consulting. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, enabling it to offer a wide range of products while maintaining competitive pricing. Economic factors such as housing starts, renovation activity, and energy efficiency regulations also contribute to its revenue growth.

TopBuild Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TopBuild shows strong revenue and profit growth, supported by effective cost management. However, high leverage and declining free cash flow growth present potential risks. The company should focus on improving cash flow generation and managing debt levels to sustain its growth trajectory.

Income Statement

TopBuild demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 38.1%, indicating robust demand and market expansion. The gross profit margin is healthy at 29.7%, and the net profit margin has improved to 16.3%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.39 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong at 39.3%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 34.7%, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is robust, but the free cash flow has declined by 46.4% in the TTM, which could impact future investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.73, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 93.9%, highlighting good cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.24B	5.33B	5.19B	5.01B	3.49B	2.72B
Gross Profit	1.56B	1.62B	1.60B	1.49B	974.39M	746.36M
EBITDA	995.37M	1.05B	1.03B	922.19M	541.98M	417.96M
Net Income	567.75M	622.60M	614.25M	555.99M	324.02M	247.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.41B	4.74B	5.16B	4.61B	4.26B	2.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.14B	400.32M	848.57M	240.07M	139.78M	330.01M
Total Debt	3.09B	1.58B	1.64B	1.68B	1.68B	793.96M
Total Liabilities	4.19B	2.53B	2.60B	2.68B	2.62B	1.47B
Stockholders Equity	2.22B	2.21B	2.56B	1.93B	1.64B	1.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	791.20M	706.68M	785.41M	419.42M	347.48M	316.95M
Operating Cash Flow	845.82M	776.03M	849.41M	495.80M	403.02M	357.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-952.87M	-203.52M	-198.17M	-93.91M	-1.32B	-121.88M
Financing Cash Flow	994.84M	-1.02B	-43.84M	-300.07M	729.01M	-90.80M

TopBuild Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 437.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 437.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 432.34, above the 50-day MA of 426.48, and above the 200-day MA of 361.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLD.

TopBuild Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIX	80 Outperform	$35.32B	42.41	43.84%	0.19%	27.71%	80.54%
DY	79 Outperform	$10.19B	34.64	21.90%	―	13.19%	33.58%
BLD	73 Outperform	$12.27B	22.19	26.18%	―	-1.28%	-0.66%
MTZ	73 Outperform	$17.32B	52.19	11.18%	―	12.99%	274.10%
STRL	70 Outperform	$9.99B	31.88	35.73%	―	6.20%	72.81%
FLR	64 Neutral	$7.09B	2.23	91.03%	―	-1.81%	1228.51%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

TopBuild Corporate Events

TopBuild Raises 2025 Sales Outlook Amid Acquisitions

On November 4, 2025, TopBuild Corp. reported its third-quarter results, showing sales of $1.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.8%. The company raised its 2025 sales outlook to $5.35 to $5.45 billion, incorporating contributions from recent acquisitions, including SPI and four others. Despite challenges in residential new construction due to weak consumer confidence, TopBuild remains optimistic about growth opportunities in commercial and industrial markets, supported by its strategic acquisitions and operational excellence.

TopBuild Completes Acquisition of Specialty Products

On October 8, 2025, TopBuild Corp. announced the completion of its acquisition of Specialty Products and Insulation (SPI) for $1 billion in cash. This strategic acquisition, finalized on October 7, 2025, enhances TopBuild’s leadership in specialty distribution, extends its geographic footprint, and expands its mechanical insulation fabrication capabilities. The transaction is expected to generate $35 to $40 million in annual cost synergies and is immediately accretive to earnings per share. The acquisition strengthens TopBuild’s presence in commercial and industrial markets and improves its non-cyclical revenue stream, with approximately 55% of SPI’s revenue linked to recurring maintenance and repair.

TopBuild Completes $750 Million Senior Notes Offering

On September 25, 2025, TopBuild Corp. completed a private offering of $750 million in senior notes due 2034, with an interest rate of 5.625%. The proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, potentially including acquisitions. The notes, governed by an indenture, are unsecured senior obligations and are guaranteed by the company’s subsidiaries. They include provisions for redemption and repurchase under specific conditions and are subject to restrictive covenants and events of default.

TopBuild Announces $750M Senior Notes Offering

On September 15, 2025, TopBuild Corp. announced the pricing of its private offering of $750 million in senior unsecured notes due 2034, with an interest rate of 5.625%. The proceeds are intended for general corporate purposes, potentially including acquisitions, and the offering is expected to close on September 25, 2025, subject to customary conditions. The notes will be guaranteed by TopBuild’s wholly owned domestic subsidiaries, but they are not registered under the Securities Act, limiting their sale in the U.S. The announcement highlights TopBuild’s strategic financial maneuvers to support its operations and potential growth through acquisitions.

TopBuild Launches $750M Senior Notes Offering

On September 15, 2025, TopBuild Corp. announced the launch of a private offering of $750 million in senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. persons. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general corporate purposes, potentially including acquisitions. The notes will be guaranteed by TopBuild’s wholly owned domestic subsidiaries and are subject to market conditions. This move reflects TopBuild’s strategic financial planning and could impact its market positioning by providing additional capital for growth opportunities.