TopBuild (BLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 351.17K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: -1.28%
• EPS Growth: -0.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,984
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 4.50
• Shares Outstanding: 28,139,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 397,021
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 351,170
• PEG Ratio: -2.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.03
• 1Y Price Target: $475.13
• Price Target Upside: 32.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 18.41
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.08B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $379.00 ▲(5.91% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and free-cash-flow generation, tempered by a meaningful recent rise in leverage and slower/softer earnings momentum. Near-term technicals are weak (below key short-term averages), while management’s outlook is balanced but cautious due to organic volume declines, margin pressure, and embedded price/cost headwinds; valuation remains moderate-to-elevated at ~24.6x earnings without dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

TopBuild consistently produces substantial operating and free cash flow, generating roughly $0.7B FCF in 2025 and FCF close to net income. Durable cash generation funds buybacks, inorganic growth and working capital needs, supporting strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Productive, scale-building M&A program

Aggressive, accretive M&A has materially expanded scale and diversified product/end-market exposure. Recent bolt-ons add significant revenue and management reports on-track synergy delivery, implying durable incremental EBITDA and competitive breadth that support long-term margin and growth.

Long-term compounded revenue and EPS growth

A decade of double-digit sales compounding and very strong EPS growth reflects successful execution, scalable operating model and disciplined capital deployment. This long-term track record suggests durable competitive advantages in distribution+installation and ability to grow through cycles.

Negative Factors

Material increase in leverage

Leverage increased meaningfully after 2025 acquisitions, reducing balance-sheet flexibility and increasing interest exposure. Higher net debt and elevated leverage magnify recession risk, constrain capacity for opportunistic investment, and raise refinancing sensitivity if cash flow or markets weaken.

Persistent organic volume weakness

Sustained declines in installation and distribution volumes—especially a steep installation drop—reflect exposure to weaker residential and light commercial markets. With ~52% of sales tied to residential, prolonged housing softness could depress organic growth and limit leverage benefits from scale.

Margin pressure and price/cost headwinds

Material margin compression and explicit price/cost headwinds indicate earnings sensitivity to input and pricing dynamics. Deleverage from lower volumes and a ~27% decremental on volumes can persist, threatening medium-term profitability and free cash flow if volumes or pricing do not recover.

TopBuild Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, afterpaint products, fireproofing products, garage doors, fireplaces, closet shelving, roofing materials, and other products; and insulation installation services. The company also offers various services and tools to assist builders in applying the principles of building science to new home construction, which include pre-construction plan reviews, diagnostic testing, and various inspection services; and home energy rating services. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial general contractors, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates approximately 235 installation branches and 175 distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

TopBuild makes money primarily by selling and installing insulation and related building products through two core revenue streams. (1) Installation services: Through its installation segment, TopBuild earns revenue from turnkey job fulfillment—estimating jobs, sourcing materials, delivering to the site, and performing installation (and in some cases removal/replacement) for customers such as national and regional homebuilders, multifamily developers, and commercial contractors. Revenue is generated on a per-project basis and reflects both product sales (materials) and labor/service components; profitability is influenced by installation volume, labor utilization, local market pricing, and input costs for insulation and related materials. (2) Specialty distribution: Through its distribution segment, TopBuild sells insulation and complementary building products to professional contractors, installers, and other trade customers. This segment generates revenue from product sales across a branch network, with margins driven by purchase economics, supplier pricing, freight, inventory management, and mix of higher-value specialty products. Across both segments, earnings are tied to levels of residential and commercial construction activity (new build and repair/remodel), regional housing starts and permitting, and the company’s ability to manage material and labor costs. Specific significant partnerships: null.

TopBuild Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue expansion, solid historical margins, and robust free cash flow, but recent results show slowing growth, a step-down in earnings, softer cash-flow momentum, and a sharp increase in leverage that reduces flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the multi-year period (from ~$2.7B in 2020 to ~$5.4B in 2025), but the growth rate has slowed sharply in the last two years (low-single-digits). Profitability remains solid with gross margin around ~29–31% and net margin near ~10–12%, though 2025 shows a clear step-down in net income versus 2024. Overall: good scale and historically strong profitability, offset by slowing growth and recent margin/earnings softness.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.64–0.71 (2023–2024) to ~1.36 in 2025, indicating a meaningfully more debt-heavy capital structure. Equity is still sizable (~$2.3B) and returns on equity have been attractive (generally ~20%+), but the higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises risk if the cycle weakens. Overall: strong historical returns, but a notable deterioration in leverage in the most recent year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy: operating cash flow remains strong (roughly ~$0.76B in 2025) and free cash flow is robust (roughly ~$0.70B), with free cash flow close to net income (about ~0.91–0.92x in 2024–2025). However, free cash flow declined in 2024–2025 (negative growth), and operating cash flow covered net income slightly below 1x in 2025, suggesting a modest weakening in cash conversion versus the prior year. Overall: strong ongoing cash production with some recent softening in momentum.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.41B	5.33B	5.19B	5.01B	3.49B
Gross Profit	1.57B	1.62B	1.60B	1.49B	974.39M
EBITDA	1.08B	1.05B	1.03B	922.19M	541.98M
Net Income	521.73M	622.60M	614.25M	555.99M	324.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.73B	4.74B	5.16B	4.61B	4.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.74M	400.32M	848.57M	240.07M	139.78M
Total Debt	3.15B	1.58B	1.64B	1.68B	1.68B
Total Liabilities	4.42B	2.53B	2.60B	2.68B	2.62B
Stockholders Equity	2.32B	2.21B	2.56B	1.93B	1.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	696.89M	706.68M	785.41M	419.42M	347.48M
Operating Cash Flow	756.32M	776.03M	849.41M	495.80M	403.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.99B	-203.52M	-198.17M	-93.91M	-1.32B
Financing Cash Flow	1.02B	-1.02B	-43.84M	-300.07M	729.01M

TopBuild Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 357.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 357.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 426.41, below the 50-day MA of 466.49, and below the 200-day MA of 416.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -34.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.57 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLD.

TopBuild Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIX	82 Outperform	$50.05B	32.26	48.52%	0.20%	27.71%	80.54%
STRL	76 Outperform	$12.91B	32.23	30.17%	―	6.20%	72.81%
MTZ	74 Outperform	$23.91B	42.42	13.08%	―	12.99%	274.10%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BLD	62 Neutral	$10.07B	22.33	23.72%	―	-1.28%	-0.66%
DY	62 Neutral	$10.56B	37.65	18.81%	―	13.19%	33.58%
FLR	55 Neutral	$6.69B	-131.50	-1.14%	―	-1.81%	1228.51%

TopBuild Corporate Events

TopBuild Posts Q4 2025 Results, Highlights Acquisition-Driven Growth

On February 26, 2026, TopBuild reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $1.49 billion, up 13.2% year over year, driven primarily by the acquisitions of SPI and Progressive Roofing, which offset weakness in residential and light commercial new construction. Despite higher sales, profitability metrics, including gross and operating margins, declined as mix and acquisition-related costs weighed on results, although Installation Services maintained a robust 21.0% adjusted EBITDA margin.

For full-year 2025, sales edged up 1.5% to $5.41 billion as seven acquisitions added about $1.2 billion in annual revenue, while volume fell and margins compressed versus 2024. The company reinforced its growth-through-M&A strategy by prioritizing acquisitions for capital deployment, highlighted by the SPI deal that strengthens its leadership in mechanical insulation, and it returned $434.2 million to shareholders via buybacks as it set a 2026 outlook of $5.925 billion to $6.225 billion in sales and $1.005 billion to $1.155 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLD) stock is a Buy with a $620.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TopBuild stock, see the BLD Stock Forecast page.