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Fluor Corp (FLR)
NYSE:FLR

Fluor (FLR) AI Stock Analysis

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FLR

Fluor

(NYSE:FLR)

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Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▼(-10.15% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by sharp 2025 profitability and cash-flow deterioration and ongoing project execution risks, despite a de-risked leverage profile. Offsetting factors include a very low valuation multiple and a moderately constructive outlook from the earnings call (2026 guidance, backlog strength, and significant planned buybacks), while technical signals point to stabilization rather than strong momentum.
Positive Factors
Large, diversified backlog (mostly reimbursable)
A >$25B backlog, concentrated in Urban and largely reimbursable work, gives multi-quarter revenue visibility and dampens cyclicality. With management noting book-to-burn >1 and much of 2026 guidance coming from backlog, the pipeline supports sustained revenue conversion and steadier margins.
NuScale monetization materially improved liquidity
Realizing nearly $2B and capturing strong MOIC/IRR converts an equity stake into durable liquidity, reducing reliance on operating cash in the near term. This strategic monetization both repairs balance-sheet flexibility and funds buybacks and investment, a lasting structural boost to financial optionality.
De-risked leverage with active capital returns
Improved leverage metrics and large, disciplined buybacks signal management confidence and free-cash deployment discipline. Lowered debt-to-equity and meaningful repurchases reduce float and concentrate upside for shareholders while evidencing capacity to return capital even amid project headwinds.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent cash generation and negative FCF in 2025
Volatile operating cash conversion undermines the company's ability to self-fund projects and absorb overruns. A swing to zero/negative OCF in 2025 heightens reliance on asset monetization or external funding, raising execution and timing risk that can persist across quarters in project-centric businesses.
Large Santos charge and near-term cash hit
A ~$643M charge and nearly equal cash payment materially weakened 2025 results and liquidity. The litigation and insurance recovery timeline is uncertain, creating structural cash-timing risk and potential balance-sheet volatility until recoveries or resolution occur, affecting funding of operations.
Project cost growth and legacy loss-making projects
Ongoing cost growth and several legacy loss-making projects signal execution weakness that depresses margins and forces reserve recognition. Persisting lost-project funding needs and scheduled handovers create structural margin pressure and increase the probability of future cash strain or additional charge recognition.

Fluor (FLR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Fluor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFluor Corporation provides engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC); fabrication and modularization; operation and maintenance; asset integrity; and project management services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Energy Solutions, Urban Solutions, Mission Solutions, and Other. The Energy Solutions provides solutions to the energy transition markets, including asset decarbonization, carbon capture, renewable fuels, waste-to-energy, green chemicals, hydrogen, nuclear power, and other low-carbon energy sources. It also provides consulting services, including feasibility studies, process assessments, and project finance structuring; and a range of services for small modular reactor technologies, as well as operation support services for nuclear power facilities and managing waste. This segment serves the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries. The Urban Solutions segment offers EPC and project management services to the infrastructure, advanced technologies, life sciences, and mining and metals industries. This segment also provides staffing services to the company and third-party clients with technical, professional, and craft resources on a contract or permanent placement basis. The Mission Solutions offers technical solutions to the U.S. and other governments. It also delivers solutions for nuclear security and operation, nuclear waste management, and laboratory management; and operation and maintenance, logistics, EPC, and life support solutions for mission-critical facilities across U.S. military service organizations. This segment offers site management, environmental remediation, and decommissioning for nuclear remediation at governmental facilities, as well as services to commercial nuclear clients. The Other segment researches, develops, licenses, and commercializes small modular nuclear reactor technology. It also provides unionized management and construction services. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyFluor generates revenue through various channels, primarily by providing engineering and construction services for large infrastructure and industrial projects. The company's revenue model is based on contracts that can be structured as fixed-price, cost-plus, or unit-rate arrangements, allowing it to capture revenue based on the nature of the project and client requirements. Key revenue streams include fees for engineering services, construction services, and project management. Fluor also benefits from partnerships with government entities and private sector companies, which provide a steady pipeline of projects. The company's ability to secure long-term contracts and maintain a diversified portfolio across multiple sectors contributes significantly to its earnings stability and growth potential.

Fluor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balance of strong strategic and capital actions (NuScale monetization, significant share repurchases, robust new awards and backlog, improved backlog margin, and forward guidance) alongside material near-term challenges (a large Santos-related charge and cash outflow, a sizable loss in Energy Solutions, project cost growth on several infrastructure contracts, and lower reported cash/OCF in 2025). Management emphasized confidence in backlog conversion, active monetization, and continued capital returns while acknowledging legacy project headwinds and near-term tax/cash timing issues.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
NuScale Monetization
Received roughly $2.0 billion since September 2025 from NuScale monetization with more proceeds expected in Q2 2026; achieved a realized MOIC of over 3.5x and IRR >13% (excluding 40 million shares still held); CFO expects completion of monetization in Q2 2026.
Aggressive Share Repurchases and Capital Returns
Deployed $754 million in share repurchases in 2025 (management also cited $754M and CFO noted over $750M), producing an ~11% reduction in float; additional $335 million repurchased to-date in 2026; company plans ~$1.4 billion of repurchases for full-year 2026 (including $400M in first two months).
Strong New Awards and Backlog
Consolidated new awards for 2025 totaled $12.0 billion, 87% reimbursable. Segment new awards: Urban $8.7B, Energy Solutions $1.4B, Mission $1.8B. Ending backlog by segment: Urban $18.7B, Energy Solutions $4.6B, Mission $2.2B (total backlog >$25B). Management expects 2026 new awards to be significantly higher than 2025 and a book-to-burn ratio in excess of one.
Guidance and 2026 Outlook
Established 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $525M–$585M (versus $504M adjusted EBITDA in 2025), operating cash flow guidance of $300M (excludes >$400M tax bill due Q2), and provided expected segment margin ranges: Urban 3%–4%, Energy 4%–5%, Mission ~6%.
Equity Method Earnings Contribution
Recorded $210 million in equity method earnings for 2025, driven mainly by NuScale (and Q1 NTTA impact), which supported consolidated results amid other headwinds.
Safety and Execution Milestone
Achieved mechanical completion on BASF's largest investment to date in China with over 75 million work hours without a lost-time injury; scope delivered full EPCM services across multiple facilities, demonstrating large-project execution capability.
Improved Backlog Margin and Execution Confidence
Management reported improvement in new award margin and total backlog margin, with ~70%+ of 2026 guidance contribution expected from existing backlog (management said two-thirds to three-quarters), supporting confidence in hitting 2026 targets.
Negative Updates
Large Santos Charge and Cash Impact
Recognized a ~$643 million charge related to the Santos ruling (booked as a reduction to revenue) and paid roughly $642 million to Santos, which drove operating cash flow negative $387 million in 2025; appeal expected mid-2026 with potential insurance recoveries not expected until H2 2026.
Energy Solutions Significant Loss
Energy Solutions reported a segment loss of $414 million in 2025 versus a $256 million profit in 2024, representing a swing of approximately $670 million year-over-year; performance impacted by the Santos ruling, completion of several large projects, and temporary slowdown in Mexico.
Declines in Urban and Mission Profitability
Urban Solutions profit declined to $205 million in 2025 from $304 million in 2024 (down ~$99M, ~-33%); Mission Solutions profit fell to $94 million from $153 million (down ~$59M, ~-39%), reflecting project-specific cost growth and reserve recognition.
Project Cost Growth and Legacy Problem Projects
Recorded $108 million in cost growth across three infrastructure projects (including $30M in Q4); four infrastructure projects remain in a loss position with handovers scheduled (three in 2026, one in early 2027). Lost project funding totaled $238M in 2025; expected funding for 2026 approximately $220M (including $90M within OCF).
Decrease in Cash and Operating Cash Flow Pressure
Cash and marketable securities ended 2025 at $2.2 billion versus $3.0 billion a year ago (down ~$800M, ~-26.7%); operating cash flow was negative $387M in 2025 largely due to the Santos payment and other items; 2026 OCF guide excludes a >$400M tax payment due in Q2 related to the NuScale conversion.
Adjusted Financial Metrics Slightly Weaker YoY
Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $504M in 2025 from $530M in 2024 (down $26M, ~-4.9%). Adjusted EPS fell to $2.19 from $2.32 in 2024 (down $0.13, ~-5.6%).
Restructuring and Other Charges
Recorded $43 million of restructuring costs in 2025 (including $16M in Q4) to optimize the operating platform; other notable items include $210M equity method nuance from NuScale (volatile accounting effects) and potential near-term tax and cash variability.
Company Guidance
Fluor’s 2026 guidance targets adjusted EBITDA of $525–$585 million and assumes operating cash flow of about $300 million (excluding an expected >$400 million NuScale-related tax payment due in Q2); the company plans ~$1.4 billion of share repurchases in 2026 (including ~$400 million in the first two months) and expects to conclude NuScale monetization by Q2, with operating results weighted to the second half of the year. Key planning assumptions include corporate G&A of roughly $175–$185 million (excluding up to $10 million of early ERP work), an income tax rate of ~26–28%, a revenue mix of ~20% Energy/65% Urban/15% Mission, reported segment margins of ~3–4% Urban, ~4–5% Energy, and ~6% Mission, a book-to-burn >1 for new awards, and that roughly two‑thirds to three‑quarters of the EBITDA guidance will come from backlog; expected 2026 lost‑project funding is ~ $220 million (≈$90 million in OCF).

Fluor Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are dominated by volatility: profitability improved into 2024 but deteriorated sharply in 2025 with losses, negative gross profit, and a steep revenue decline. Balance sheet leverage appears more manageable, but cash flow conversion is inconsistent and 2025 free cash flow was negative, elevating execution and working-capital risk.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Results have been volatile. After improving profitability through 2022–2024 (including strong 2024 net income and positive operating earnings), 2025 deteriorated sharply with a return to losses, negative gross profit, and a steep revenue decline versus the prior year. Margins remain thin in the “good” years, highlighting sensitivity to project execution and cost issues.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Leverage appears manageable and has improved versus earlier years: debt-to-equity moved down meaningfully from 2020–2022 levels to a lower level in 2024–2025, and total debt is relatively stable. However, profitability swings drove return on equity from very strong in 2024 to negative in 2025, and equity levels have fluctuated materially—signaling that earnings quality and consistency are key balance-sheet risks.
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Cash generation is inconsistent. 2024 showed strong operating cash flow and solid free cash flow, but 2025 reported zero operating cash flow and negative free cash flow, indicating a sharp working-capital/operating reversal. Earlier years also show uneven conversion (including negative free cash flow in 2021–2022), which raises execution and cash timing risk.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.50B16.32B15.47B13.74B14.16B
Gross Profit-120.00M574.00M477.00M355.00M454.00M
EBITDA-245.00M732.00M449.00M376.00M-182.00M
Net Income-51.00M2.15B139.00M145.00M-440.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.24B9.14B6.97B6.83B7.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.77B2.96B2.59B2.62B2.34B
Total Debt1.07B1.10B1.16B1.13B1.19B
Total Liabilities4.96B5.15B4.92B4.83B5.52B
Stockholders Equity3.24B3.95B1.94B1.79B1.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-437.00M664.00M106.00M-44.00M-50.00M
Operating Cash Flow-387.00M828.00M212.00M31.00M25.00M
Investing Cash Flow502.00M-333.00M-277.00M-78.00M-122.00M
Financing Cash Flow-862.00M-116.00M127.00M315.00M122.00M

Fluor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price52.31
Price Trends
50DMA
45.57
Positive
100DMA
45.30
Positive
200DMA
45.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.10
Negative
RSI
62.59
Neutral
STOCH
82.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.02, above the 50-day MA of 45.57, and above the 200-day MA of 45.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FLR.

Fluor Risk Analysis

Fluor disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fluor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Fluor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$12.16B41.3621.90%13.19%33.58%
81
Outperform
$9.87B29.4642.01%16.89%54.13%
76
Outperform
$13.12B45.6830.28%6.20%72.81%
74
Outperform
$8.15B30.0517.79%0.25%21.45%67.31%
69
Neutral
$5.34B12.1130.18%1.65%9.66%29.01%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
55
Neutral
$7.67B-41.69-1.42%-1.81%1228.51%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FLR
Fluor
52.31
15.39
41.68%
DY
Dycom
420.02
259.00
160.85%
IESC
IES Holdings
495.35
328.29
196.51%
KBR
KBR
42.23
-5.43
-11.39%
PRIM
Primoris Services
150.72
82.08
119.57%
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure
428.13
306.56
252.17%

Fluor Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Fluor Appoints James P. Elliott as Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026

On February 3, 2026, Fluor Corporation’s board of directors appointed James P. Elliott, 47, as chief accounting officer effective February 4, 2026, elevating him from his current role as corporate controller, which he has held since 2025 after serving as director of technical accounting and internal reporting from 2019 to 2025. The company emphasized that Elliott has no family relationships with directors or executive officers and no disclosable related-party transactions, and noted that his appointment will be accompanied by standard indemnification and change-in-control agreements, underscoring routine governance practices around a key finance leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLR) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fluor stock, see the FLR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026