APi Group (APG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 10.69%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 431,456,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,384,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,870,882
• PEG Ratio: 2.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.40
• 1Y Price Target: $52.00
• Price Target Upside: 31.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.52B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(11.39% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is supported primarily by strong and improving cash-flow fundamentals and constructive price momentum. Earnings-call guidance reinforces continued growth and margin expansion expectations. These positives are tempered by a very high P/E and reported earnings volatility (including the 2025 net loss) that raises consistency risk.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

APi’s FCF strength is durable: operating cash flow rose materially through 2021–2025 and culminated in record adjusted FCF in 2025. High conversion of EBITDA to cash underpins reinvestment, debt reduction, and accretive M&A, supporting long-term strategic optionality and capital allocation.

Margin expansion & scale

Meaningful revenue scaling with simultaneous gross- and EBITDA-margin expansion indicates structural operating improvements: better mix, execution, and pricing. Sustained margin progress supports durable profitability across project and recurring service lines, improving cash flow sensitivity to revenue growth.

Robust backlog & favorable end markets

A >$4B backlog and increasing exposure to high-growth, higher-margin end markets (e.g., data centers) provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and durable tailwinds. Recurring inspection/service base plus project pipeline supports steady revenue mix and follow-on service opportunities.

Negative Factors

Earnings volatility

Large swings in reported net income highlight below-the-line variability (nonoperating items, tax, or one-offs) that undermine consistency of shareholder earnings. Persistent volatility complicates forecasting, dividend/buyback policy and investor confidence over the medium term.

Balance-sheet discontinuity

An abrupt and unexplained debt step-down clouds trend assessment for leverage and credit health. This uncertainty limits reliable stress-testing of covenant/leverage exposure and makes it harder to judge sustainable financial flexibility for M&A or capital returns.

Share dilution & capital allocation

Material share issuance and a stated preference for deploying capital into M&A rather than buybacks can dilute EPS and constrain per-share returns. Over the medium term, elevated share count and acquisitive strategy increase sensitivity of EPS and returns to deal execution and integration success.

APi Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

APi Group Corporation provides safety, specialty, and industrial services in North America, Europe, Australia, and the Asian-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Safety Services, Specialty Services, and Industrial Services. The Safety Services segment offers safety solutions focusing on end-to-end integrated occupancy systems, such as fire protection solutions; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning solutions; and entry systems, which include the design, installation, inspection, monitoring, and service of these integrated systems. The Specialty Services segment provides infrastructure and specialized industrial plant services, including maintenance and repair of underground electric, gas, water, sewer, and telecommunications infrastructure. This segment also offers engineering and design, fabrication, installation, and retrofitting and upgrading services. The Industrial Services segment provides various services and solutions comprising pipeline infrastructure, access and road construction, supporting facilities, and integrity management and maintenance to the energy industry focused on transmission and distribution. It serves customers in the public and private sectors, including commercial, industrial, fulfillment centers, distribution, manufacturing, education, healthcare, telecom, transmission, utilities, high tech, entertainment, retail, financial services, and governmental markets. The company was formerly known as J2 Acquisition Limited and changed its name to APi Group Corporation in October 2019. APi Group Corporation was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in New Brighton, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

APG makes money primarily by contracting to install, upgrade, and maintain safety and specialty systems for commercial, industrial, and institutional customers. Revenue is generated through (1) project-based work: one-time or multi-phase jobs to design (where applicable), install, retrofit, or replace fire and life safety systems and other specialty infrastructure services, with revenue recognized as work is performed under customer contracts; and (2) service/inspection/monitoring work: recurring revenue from required periodic inspections, testing, maintenance, repairs, and service agreements for installed systems, which can provide steadier, repeat business over time. Additional revenue can come from selling associated parts and equipment used in installations and service calls, and from multi-site or national-account relationships where APG supports customers across many locations. Key factors supporting earnings include regulatory and insurance-driven compliance requirements for fire and life safety systems, the large installed base of customer systems that require ongoing inspection and maintenance, and long-term customer relationships that can lead to follow-on projects and renewals of service agreements. Specific material partnership arrangements, if any, are null.

APi Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is the standout strength with rising operating cash flow and free cash flow reaching $663M in 2025. Operating performance improved with meaningful revenue scaling and gross margin expansion versus earlier years. Offsetting this is notable earnings volatility, including a 2025 net loss despite positive operating income, and a major discontinuity in reported 2025 debt that reduces confidence in the latest balance-sheet trend.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time (from $3.6B in 2020 to $7.9B in 2025), and profitability improved from 2020’s operating loss to solid operating income in 2023–2025. Gross margin also expanded from ~21% (2020) to ~31% (2023–2024), signaling better mix and/or execution. The key concern is earnings volatility: net income swung from a $250M profit (2024) to a $288M loss (2025), despite positive operating profit, which raises questions around below-the-line items and consistency of shareholder earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially across the period, with debt-to-equity declining from 1.42x (2022) to 0.90x (2023) to ~1.03x (2024). Equity has grown (from $1.56B in 2020 to $3.41B in 2025), supporting a larger asset base. However, the data shows a sharp step-down in total debt in 2025 ($5M vs. ~$3.0B in 2024), which is a major discontinuity; if accurate it’s a big credit positive, but it also reduces confidence in trend interpretation for the latest year. Returns on equity improved into 2024 (~8.5%) but remain moderate and are pressured by the 2025 net loss.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow rose from $182M (2021) to $514M (2023), $620M (2024), and $759M (2025), while free cash flow expanded to $663M in 2025 (+15.9% year over year). Free cash flow has generally tracked well relative to earnings in profitable years (about 0.83–0.86x of net income in 2023–2024), indicating earnings quality and working-capital discipline. The main weakness is variability in free cash flow growth (including a decline in 2021), but the most recent trajectory is solid.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.91B	7.02B	6.93B	6.56B	3.94B
Gross Profit	2.49B	2.18B	1.94B	1.71B	939.00M
EBITDA	881.00M	778.00M	680.00M	522.00M	341.00M
Net Income	302.00M	250.00M	153.00M	73.00M	47.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.94B	8.15B	7.59B	8.09B	5.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	912.00M	499.00M	479.00M	605.00M	1.19B
Total Debt	3.29B	3.04B	2.57B	3.03B	1.87B
Total Liabilities	5.53B	5.20B	4.72B	5.96B	2.84B
Stockholders Equity	3.41B	2.95B	2.87B	2.13B	2.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	663.00M	536.00M	428.00M	191.00M	127.00M
Operating Cash Flow	759.00M	620.00M	514.00M	270.00M	182.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-254.00M	-829.00M	-115.00M	-2.90B	-121.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-121.00M	245.00M	-532.00M	1.76B	917.00M

APi Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.49, below the 50-day MA of 42.77, and above the 200-day MA of 37.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APG.

APi Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PWR	77 Outperform	$83.10B	62.25	12.60%	0.09%	18.72%	23.97%
MTZ	74 Outperform	$23.71B	42.42	13.08%	―	12.99%	274.10%
APG	71 Outperform	$17.20B	52.70	9.13%	―	10.69%	―
ACM	68 Neutral	$11.45B	42.33	19.75%	1.06%	0.21%	53.80%
J	68 Neutral	$15.08B	30.11	11.80%	0.94%	-23.00%	-61.88%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
DY	62 Neutral	$10.08B	37.65	18.81%	―	13.19%	33.58%

APi Group Corporate Events

APi Group Issues Common Shares for Preferred Dividend

On December 31, 2025, APi Group Corporation’s board approved a stock dividend tied to its 4,000,000 outstanding shares of Series A preferred stock, issuing 15,212,810 shares of common stock after the volume-weighted average share price for the last ten trading days of 2025 exceeded the prior year’s dividend reference price, adjusted for a three-for-two stock split completed in June 2025. The company, following its stated intention to settle the 2025 annual dividend on the Series A preferred shares in common stock, completed the issuance on January 2, 2026, bringing its total common shares outstanding to approximately 431,128,083 and modestly diluting existing common shareholders while fulfilling obligations to the preferred holder.

The most recent analyst rating on (APG) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APi Group stock, see the APG Stock Forecast page.