APi Group Corporation (APG)
NYSE:APG
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APi Group
(NYSE:APG)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▼(-3.17% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is supported primarily by strong and improving cash-flow fundamentals and constructive price momentum. Earnings-call guidance reinforces continued growth and margin expansion expectations. These positives are tempered by a very high P/E and reported earnings volatility (including the 2025 net loss) that raises consistency risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds bolt-on M&A, capital investments, and debt reduction without relying on equity markets. Over the next 2–6 months this underpins reinvestment in service capacity and supports execution of long-term growth targets.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
Material swings in reported net income despite positive operating income indicate below-the-line items and one-offs can meaningfully affect shareholder earnings. This reduces predictability of per-share returns and complicates multi-period forecasting and capital-allocation planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds bolt-on M&A, capital investments, and debt reduction without relying on equity markets. Over the next 2–6 months this underpins reinvestment in service capacity and supports execution of long-term growth targets.
Read all positive factors
APi Group (APG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)52.7
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth10.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding431,456,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,592,187
30 Day Avg. Volume2,993,671
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.27
Price to Book (P/B)4.67
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio24.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.00Price Target Upside17.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.52B
APi Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
APi Group Corporation provides safety, specialty, and industrial services in North America, Europe, Australia, and the Asian-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Safety Services, Specialty Services, and Industrial Services. The Safety Serv...
How the Company Makes Money
APG makes money primarily by contracting to install, upgrade, and maintain safety and specialty systems for commercial, industrial, and institutional customers. Revenue is generated through (1) project-based work: one-time or multi-phase jobs to d...
APi Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, record free cash flow ($836M) with 80% conversion, low leverage (~1.6x), and active accretive M&A including new vertical expansion. Key strengths outweigh the cautions described: management highlighted material progress against long-term targets and a healthy backlog (> $4B). Principal risks discussed were project revenue timing/mix, a wide near-term guidance range, and slowing tailwinds for inspection growth as the base enlarges. Overall, the narrative is one of solid performance and confident execution tempered by reasonable conservatism around near-term project variability and macro sensitivity.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Full-year net revenues increased 13% year-over-year (approximately 8% organic). Reported Q4 net revenues were $2.12 billion, up 13.8% vs. prior-year Q4 with Q4 organic growth of 11.1%.
Negative Updates
Guidance Uncertainty and Wide Q1 Range
Q1 guidance implies reported net revenues of $1.875 billion to $1.975 billion with a wide organic growth range of 4%–10%, reflecting uncertainty/seasonality. Full-year organic midpoint implies more modest growth (~5% at midpoint of cited guidance).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Full-year net revenues increased 13% year-over-year (approximately 8% organic). Reported Q4 net revenues were $2.12 billion, up 13.8% vs. prior-year Q4 with Q4 organic growth of 11.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
APi guided 2026 net revenues of about $8.66 billion (≈5% organic growth at the midpoint) with an organic growth algorithm targeting mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth in inspection, service & monitoring and low‑ to mid‑single‑digit project growth; full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $1.14–$1.20 billion (≈8–13% growth year‑over‑year, and roughly a ~60 bps margin expansion at the midpoint on the path to a 16%+ goal by 2028); adjusted free‑cash‑flow conversion expected to be at or above ~100%. For Q1 2026 the company guided reported net revenues of $1.875–$1.975 billion (4–10% organic), adjusted EBITDA ≈ $130 million, depreciation ≈ $90 million, capital expenditures ≈ $105 million, an adjusted effective tax rate ≈ 23%, corporate expenses ≈ $35 million/quarter, and an adjusted diluted weighted average share count of ≈ 441 million; APi exited 2025 with $7.9 billion of revenue, a 13.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, $836 million of adjusted FCF (80% conversion) and net debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~1.6x.APi Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.91B | 7.02B | 6.93B | 6.56B | 3.94B |
| Gross Profit | 2.49B | 2.18B | 1.94B | 1.71B | 939.00M |
| EBITDA | 881.00M | 778.00M | 680.00M | 522.00M | 341.00M |
| Net Income | 302.00M | 250.00M | 153.00M | 73.00M | 47.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.94B | 8.15B | 7.59B | 8.09B | 5.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 912.00M | 499.00M | 479.00M | 605.00M | 1.19B |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 3.04B | 2.57B | 3.03B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.53B | 5.20B | 4.72B | 5.96B | 2.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.41B | 2.95B | 2.87B | 2.13B | 2.32B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 663.00M | 536.00M | 428.00M | 191.00M | 127.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 759.00M | 620.00M | 514.00M | 270.00M | 182.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -254.00M | -829.00M | -115.00M | -2.90B | -121.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -121.00M | 245.00M | -532.00M | 1.76B | 917.00M |
APi Group Technical Analysis
Positive
44.41
Price Trends
42.70
Positive
41.24
Positive
38.11
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
61.67
Neutral
93.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.55, above the 50-day MA of 42.70, and above the 200-day MA of 38.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APG.
APi Group Risk Analysis
APi Group disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. APi Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
APi Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $87.58B | 62.25 | 12.60% | 0.09% | 18.72% | 23.97% | |
74 Outperform | $28.50B | 42.42 | 13.08% | ― | 12.99% | 274.10% | |
71 Outperform | $19.34B | 52.70 | 9.13% | ― | 10.69% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $10.81B | 42.33 | 19.75% | 1.06% | 0.21% | 53.80% | |
68 Neutral | $14.43B | 30.11 | 11.80% | 0.94% | -23.00% | -61.88% | |
66 Neutral | $11.78B | 37.65 | 18.81% | ― | 13.19% | 33.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
APG
APi Group
44.41
20.84
88.45%
ACM
Aecom Technology
83.59
-9.68
-10.38%
DY
Dycom
393.00
240.84
158.28%
J
Jacobs Solutions
122.87
7.32
6.33%
MTZ
MasTec
361.22
243.02
205.60%
PWR
Quanta Services
585.36
311.33
113.61%
APi Group Corporate Events
DividendsStock Split
APi Group Issues Common Shares for Preferred Dividend
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
On December 31, 2025, APi Group Corporation’s board approved a stock dividend tied to its 4,000,000 outstanding shares of Series A preferred stock, issuing 15,212,810 shares of common stock after the volume-weighted average share price for t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.