APi Group (APG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 10.69%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 431,128,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,447,371
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,108,947
• PEG Ratio: 2.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.00
• 1Y Price Target: $52.29
• Price Target Upside: 16.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.44B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $50.00 ▲(11.71% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is supported primarily by strong and improving cash-flow fundamentals and constructive price momentum. Earnings-call guidance reinforces continued growth and margin expansion expectations. These positives are tempered by a very high P/E and reported earnings volatility (including the 2025 net loss) that raises consistency risk.

Positive Factors

Strong Free Cash Flow

Sustained, rising free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, field training and bolt‑on M&A without heavy reliance on external financing. High cash conversion supports strategic flexibility, deleveraging, and reinvestment into higher‑margin service lines over time.

Scale and Margin Expansion

Meaningful revenue growth paired with sustained gross‑margin expansion indicates improved mix, pricing power and execution across segments. Scale supports operating leverage, cross‑sell opportunities and higher returns on incremental revenue, bolstering long‑term profitability durability.

Conservative Leverage and M&A Firepower

Relatively low net leverage provides capacity for continued bolt‑on acquisitions and strategic investments while preserving balance‑sheet resilience. This financial flexibility enables disciplined growth, industry consolidation and faster vertical expansion without compromising liquidity.

Negative Factors

Earnings Volatility

Below‑the‑line variability (tax, interest, nonrecurring items) that produced a 2025 net loss undermines predictability of shareholder returns. Persistent swings in net income complicate ROE improvement and make long‑term EPS visibility and capital allocation signaling less reliable.

Maturing Inspection Growth

Inspection and service historically drove outsized growth (54% of revenue). As this base enlarges, law‑of‑large‑numbers dynamics will likely slow organic growth rates, reducing a structural tailwind and pressuring the company to deliver more from lower‑growth project channels.

Share Dilution Risk

Issuance of common shares to settle preferred dividends and a management tilt toward M&A over buybacks increases share count, which can dilute per‑share metrics. Over time, dilution pressures EPS and returns unless acquisitions are consistently accretive and scale benefits offset the share growth.

APi Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

APi Group Corporation provides safety, specialty, and industrial services in North America, Europe, Australia, and the Asian-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Safety Services, Specialty Services, and Industrial Services. The Safety Services segment offers safety solutions focusing on end-to-end integrated occupancy systems, such as fire protection solutions; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning solutions; and entry systems, which include the design, installation, inspection, monitoring, and service of these integrated systems. The Specialty Services segment provides infrastructure and specialized industrial plant services, including maintenance and repair of underground electric, gas, water, sewer, and telecommunications infrastructure. This segment also offers engineering and design, fabrication, installation, and retrofitting and upgrading services. The Industrial Services segment provides various services and solutions comprising pipeline infrastructure, access and road construction, supporting facilities, and integrity management and maintenance to the energy industry focused on transmission and distribution. It serves customers in the public and private sectors, including commercial, industrial, fulfillment centers, distribution, manufacturing, education, healthcare, telecom, transmission, utilities, high tech, entertainment, retail, financial services, and governmental markets. The company was formerly known as J2 Acquisition Limited and changed its name to APi Group Corporation in October 2019. APi Group Corporation was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in New Brighton, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

APi Group generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by offering specialized services in life safety, specialty, and industrial sectors. The company earns money by securing contracts for installation, maintenance, and inspection of fire protection systems, security solutions, and various industrial services. These contracts can be long-term agreements, providing a steady income stream. Additionally, APi Group benefits from partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, which enhance its service offerings and may include exclusive agreements that contribute to profitability. The company also capitalizes on acquisitions, expanding its market reach and service capabilities, thereby increasing its revenue potential through a larger customer base and diversified services.

APi Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is the standout strength with rising operating cash flow and free cash flow reaching $663M in 2025. Operating performance improved with meaningful revenue scaling and gross margin expansion versus earlier years. Offsetting this is notable earnings volatility, including a 2025 net loss despite positive operating income, and a major discontinuity in reported 2025 debt that reduces confidence in the latest balance-sheet trend.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time (from $3.6B in 2020 to $7.9B in 2025), and profitability improved from 2020’s operating loss to solid operating income in 2023–2025. Gross margin also expanded from ~21% (2020) to ~31% (2023–2024), signaling better mix and/or execution. The key concern is earnings volatility: net income swung from a $250M profit (2024) to a $288M loss (2025), despite positive operating profit, which raises questions around below-the-line items and consistency of shareholder earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially across the period, with debt-to-equity declining from 1.42x (2022) to 0.90x (2023) to ~1.03x (2024). Equity has grown (from $1.56B in 2020 to $3.41B in 2025), supporting a larger asset base. However, the data shows a sharp step-down in total debt in 2025 ($5M vs. ~$3.0B in 2024), which is a major discontinuity; if accurate it’s a big credit positive, but it also reduces confidence in trend interpretation for the latest year. Returns on equity improved into 2024 (~8.5%) but remain moderate and are pressured by the 2025 net loss.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow rose from $182M (2021) to $514M (2023), $620M (2024), and $759M (2025), while free cash flow expanded to $663M in 2025 (+15.9% year over year). Free cash flow has generally tracked well relative to earnings in profitable years (about 0.83–0.86x of net income in 2023–2024), indicating earnings quality and working-capital discipline. The main weakness is variability in free cash flow growth (including a decline in 2021), but the most recent trajectory is solid.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.91B	7.02B	6.93B	6.56B	3.94B
Gross Profit	2.49B	2.18B	1.94B	1.71B	939.00M
EBITDA	881.00M	778.00M	680.00M	522.00M	341.00M
Net Income	302.00M	250.00M	153.00M	73.00M	47.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.94B	8.15B	7.59B	8.09B	5.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	912.00M	499.00M	479.00M	605.00M	1.19B
Total Debt	3.29B	3.04B	2.57B	3.03B	1.87B
Total Liabilities	5.53B	5.20B	4.72B	5.96B	2.84B
Stockholders Equity	3.41B	2.95B	2.87B	2.13B	2.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	663.00M	536.00M	428.00M	191.00M	127.00M
Operating Cash Flow	759.00M	620.00M	514.00M	270.00M	182.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-254.00M	-829.00M	-115.00M	-2.90B	-121.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-121.00M	245.00M	-532.00M	1.76B	917.00M

APi Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.74, above the 50-day MA of 41.84, and above the 200-day MA of 36.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APG.

APi Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DY	83 Outperform	$12.41B	41.90	21.90%	―	13.19%	33.58%
PWR	76 Outperform	$85.02B	83.59	12.65%	0.09%	18.72%	23.97%
MTZ	72 Outperform	$22.70B	67.83	11.18%	―	12.99%	274.10%
APG	71 Outperform	$19.58B	-59.37	9.50%	―	10.69%	―
ACM	69 Neutral	$12.33B	21.88	27.11%	1.06%	0.21%	53.80%
J	66 Neutral	$15.80B	36.92	12.01%	0.94%	-23.00%	-61.88%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

APi Group Corporate Events

APi Group Issues Common Shares for Preferred Dividend

On December 31, 2025, APi Group Corporation’s board approved a stock dividend tied to its 4,000,000 outstanding shares of Series A preferred stock, issuing 15,212,810 shares of common stock after the volume-weighted average share price for the last ten trading days of 2025 exceeded the prior year’s dividend reference price, adjusted for a three-for-two stock split completed in June 2025. The company, following its stated intention to settle the 2025 annual dividend on the Series A preferred shares in common stock, completed the issuance on January 2, 2026, bringing its total common shares outstanding to approximately 431,128,083 and modestly diluting existing common shareholders while fulfilling obligations to the preferred holder.

The most recent analyst rating on (APG) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APi Group stock, see the APG Stock Forecast page.

APi Group to Acquire CertaSite, LLC

On December 10, 2025, APi Group Corporation announced its agreement to acquire CertaSite, LLC, a Midwest-based provider of fire and life safety services. The acquisition, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, aims to enhance APi’s inspection-first strategy and is projected to be accretive to its financial targets. CertaSite is anticipated to contribute significantly to APi’s revenue mix, aligning with the company’s long-term goals. APi also updated its 2025 financial guidance, expecting net revenues and adjusted EBITDA to meet or exceed previous estimates, reflecting strong operational momentum and strategic positioning for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (APG) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on APi Group stock, see the APG Stock Forecast page.