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Firy
(NYSE:FIRY)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(13.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance: large ongoing losses, sustained cash burn, and meaningful leverage for a still-unprofitable business. Offsetting this, technicals show an established uptrend and the latest earnings call points to improving unit economics and narrowing losses (especially excluding litigation), while recent corporate actions (partial note redemption) modestly improve balance-sheet flexibility; valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High gross margins & monetization
Sustained ~88% gross margins indicate a structurally high-margin platform business where incremental revenue can flow to the bottom line. Combined with ARPPU rising ~7% QoQ, this signals durable monetization power of mature cohorts and a realistic path to profitability if operating costs remain controlled.
Negative Factors
Sustained cash burn and losses
Material negative operating and free cash flows (roughly -$65M TTM) and a roughly -$66M net loss reflect persistent cash burn. That structural deficit constrains reinvestment, forces reliance on external financing, and lengthens the timeline to self‑funded growth absent sustained margin expansion or higher revenue run‑rate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins & monetization
Sustained ~88% gross margins indicate a structurally high-margin platform business where incremental revenue can flow to the bottom line. Combined with ARPPU rising ~7% QoQ, this signals durable monetization power of mature cohorts and a realistic path to profitability if operating costs remain controlled.
Read all positive factors
Firy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Monthly Active Users
Measures the number of unique users engaging with Skillz's platform each month, indicating the platform's popularity and user retention capabilities.
Measures the number of unique users engaging with Skillz's platform each month, indicating the platform's popularity and user retention capabilities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFiry (FIRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$159.51M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)130.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.37
Revenue Growth21.25%
EPS Growth-77.13%
CountryUS
Employees370
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryElectronic Gaming & Multimedia
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.28
Shares Outstanding12,177,494
10 Day Avg. Volume81,348
30 Day Avg. Volume130,696
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio-0.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$135.20M
Firy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Firy Inc. operates a mobile game platform. The company's platform helps developers create franchises by enabling social competition in their games. It hosts casual eSports tournaments for mobile players....
Firy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of meaningful operational progress and material near-term risks. Positives include strong year-over-year revenue growth (+33% YoY), improved monetization (ARPU +7% QoQ), RZR profitability (adjusted EBITDA +$2M), strategic acquisitions (Beamable, Blackout Bingo, Domino's Gold), attractive user acquisition economics, and a landmark legal victory against Papaya with a potential award from $420M to >$1.2B. Offsetting these strengths are a 9% QoQ decline in paying MAUs, litigation-related expenses that widened reported adjusted EBITDA to a $13M loss, $130M of debt maturing this year (liquidity/refinancing risk), ongoing legal uncertainty regarding collectability and appeals, and the company remains unprofitable on a GAAP and adjusted basis. Overall the call emphasized disciplined execution, improving unit economics, and transformational legal and strategic milestones, while flagging near-term financial and operational risks that management is actively addressing.Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth with QoQ Normalization
GAAP revenue of $29.0M in Q1 2026, up 33% year over year (Q1 2025: $22M). Reported down 3% quarter over quarter, but normalizing for a Q4 2025 indirect tax accrual release, Q1 2026 revenue would be up ~2% QoQ.
Negative Updates
Paying MAU Decline and Traffic Compression
Paying MAU (PM AU) declined to 128k, down 9% quarter over quarter (though up 3% year over year). Sequential decline was driven by reduced UA spend, resulting in fewer new user cohort additions and lower non-paying MAU.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth with QoQ Normalization
GAAP revenue of $29.0M in Q1 2026, up 33% year over year (Q1 2025: $22M). Reported down 3% quarter over quarter, but normalizing for a Q4 2025 indirect tax accrual release, Q1 2026 revenue would be up ~2% QoQ.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to continued progress toward profitability and disciplined growth, citing Q1 results of GAAP revenue $29M (‑3% QoQ, +33% YoY; +2% QoQ normalized for an indirect tax accrual release), adjusted EBITDA loss $13M (or a $7M loss excl. litigation, a 15% QoQ improvement), RZR adjusted EBITDA +$2M (third consecutive profitable quarter), paying MAU 128k (‑9% QoQ, +3% YoY) with ARPPU up 7% QoQ, net loss $11M (improved 36% YoY), R&D $5M (+5% YoY), S&M $17M (user marketing $8M, UA $3M), G&A $19M (+2% YoY), cash $185M and $130M of debt maturing this year; they expect underlying profitability to improve into Q2, PMAU/traffic to be flat-to-up with better unit economics as UA spend is scaled thoughtfully (UA costs described as the best in years), and they flagged a material legal outcome—Papaya’s jury award of $420M in actual damages with total potential recovery from $420M to over $1.2B pending disgorgement/enhancement, which the court is expected to address in June while the company pursues settlement and evaluates secured capital or appeal‑bond options.Firy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 104.50M | 95.47M | 152.08M | 269.71M | 380.15M |
| Gross Profit | 91.45M | 82.06M | 136.70M | 238.99M | 354.91M |
| EBITDA | -53.67M | -92.78M | -96.31M | -394.80M | -194.18M |
| Net Income | -70.41M | -48.23M | -101.36M | -438.88M | -187.93M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 293.45M | 364.17M | 395.83M | 621.29M | 1.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 194.51M | 281.92M | 302.03M | 489.78M | 560.39M |
| Total Debt | 128.72M | 136.54M | 136.70M | 288.38M | 297.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 181.63M | 192.58M | 185.34M | 342.89M | 411.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 111.82M | 171.59M | 210.49M | 278.40M | 609.16M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.33M | -9.58M | -84.99M | -181.49M | -183.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -68.93M | -7.07M | -71.76M | -179.60M | -180.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.14M | -1.63M | 168.30M | 311.39M | -643.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.97M | -21.29M | -149.95M | -10.61M | 802.68M |
Firy Technical Analysis
Positive
8.36
Price Trends
9.12
Positive
7.26
Positive
5.96
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Negative
57.65
Neutral
60.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIRY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.26, below the 50-day MA of 9.12, and above the 200-day MA of 5.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIRY.
Firy Risk Analysis
Firy disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Firy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Firy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $612.98M | 5.33 | 12.16% | ― | 13.67% | 17.69% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $80.86M | -1.55 | -20.93% | ― | -13.26% | -46.97% | |
58 Neutral | $217.81M | 2.96 | -60.77% | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $159.51M | -2.33 | -55.17% | ― | 21.25% | -77.13% | |
52 Neutral | $40.59M | -2.34 | 171.06% | ― | -5.65% | 46.36% | |
50 Neutral | $1.02B | -3.24 | 82.92% | 10.87% | 5.84% | -421.33% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
FIRY
Firy
9.98
1.36
15.78%
DDI
Doubledown Interactive Co
12.25
2.86
30.46%
GDEV
Nexters
11.71
-3.30
-21.99%
MYPS
PLAYSTUDIOS
0.56
-0.49
-46.67%
PLTK
Playtika Holding
2.37
-1.22
-33.96%
SNAL
Snail, Inc. Class A
2.91
-2.34
-44.57%
Firy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Firy Announces Partial Redemption of Secured Notes
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Firy Inc. announced a partial redemption of its 10.250% Secured Notes due 2026, targeting $80.0 million in aggregate principal at par, plus accrued and unpaid interest. The redemption, scheduled for August 14, 2026, reduces the ...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Firy Secures Landmark False Advertising Judgment Against Papaya
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, a federal judge in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York said she will enter judgment requiring Papaya Gaming to disgorge $719 million in unjust profits to Firy’s wholly owned subsidiary Skillz Platf...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Firy Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
Firy Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 18, 2026, with 12,435,460 Class A and 3,430,063 Class B shares outstanding as of the April 24, 2026 record date, and all Class B shares carrying 20 votes each. Stockholders elected all...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.