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Nexters (GDEV)
NASDAQ:GDEV
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Nexters (GDEV) AI Stock Analysis

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GDEV

Nexters

(NASDAQ:GDEV)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(8.55% Upside)
Nexters exhibits strong cash flow management and attractive valuation metrics, including a high dividend yield and low P/E ratio. However, financial instability due to declining revenues and negative equity, combined with mixed technical indicators, impact the overall outlook.

Nexters (GDEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nexters Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGDEV Inc. operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It develops desktop, mobile, web, and social games. The company was formerly known as Nexters Inc. and changed its name to GDEV Inc. in June 2023. GDEV Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Limassol, Cyprus.
How the Company Makes MoneyNexters makes money through a freemium revenue model, where its games are free to play but offer in-app purchases that enhance the gaming experience. These purchases can include virtual goods, additional features, or enhancements that allow players to progress faster or customize their gameplay. Additionally, the company generates revenue through advertising, as some games display ads to users. Strategic partnerships with other gaming and technology companies also contribute to Nexters' earnings, allowing for expanded distribution and access to new markets.

Nexters Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 16, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.60%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in terms of revenue growth, cash flow, leadership, and successful product launches, these were offset by year-over-year declines in revenue, bookings, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA. The company is focusing on long-term product improvements and geographical expansion, but current financial indicators show areas of concern.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations
Revenue for Q3 2024 amounted to $111 million, reflecting a 5% growth quarter-over-quarter, and surpassed analysts' consensus on revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Cash Flow Increase
Cash flows generated from operating activities increased to $12 million compared to $8 million in Q3 2023, demonstrating effective cash management.
Geographical Expansion Success
Bookings in Europe grew year-over-year, increasing the region’s share of total bookings from 26% to 30%. Notably strong performances were seen in Germany, France, the UK, and Poland.
Leadership Enhancement
Appointment of Olga Loskutova as Chief Operating Officer to guide studios towards achieving strategic goals and fostering sustainable growth.
Successful Launch on Steam
The launch of Pixel Gun on Steam was a huge success, stabilizing with an average of 2,500 to 3,000 concurrent users, and the number is growing month over month.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Revenue for Q3 2024 declined by 9% year-over-year, primarily due to the decline in bookings.
Bookings Decline
Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, affected by reduced in-game events and monetization.
Net Profit Decrease
Net profit in Q3 2024 amounted to $15 million, a decline from $24 million in the same period last year, primarily due to lower revenue and higher marketing spend.
Adjusted EBITDA Decrease
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $16 million, down $13 million year-over-year.
Company Guidance
During the GDEV Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 5% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, reaching $111 million, despite a 9% decline year-over-year. Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, attributed to strategic product improvements aimed at enhancing player experience and retention. Platform commissions decreased by 13% year-over-year, while marketing investments rose by $9 million to $52 million, aligning with efforts to increase marketing efficiency. The net profit for Q3 2024 was $15 million, down from $24 million the previous year, primarily due to increased marketing spend. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $16 million, reflecting a $13 million decrease year-over-year, although operating cash flows improved to $12 million from $8 million in Q3 2023. The company highlighted strategic geographic expansion, particularly in Europe, where bookings increased the region's share from 26% to 30%. Additionally, GDEV executed a one-for-ten reverse stock split and an at-the-market offering to enhance stock liquidity and market appeal. Overall, GDEV remains focused on sustainable growth through product evolution and marketing investments.

Nexters Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nexters shows strong cash flow trends but is challenged by declining revenues and negative equity, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Nexters has experienced fluctuating revenue with a recent decline from $464.5M in 2023 to $420.9M in 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 66.3% for 2024. However, the net profit margin decreased from 9.9% in 2023 to 6.1% in 2024. Notably, EBIT and EBITDA margins were impacted by declining revenues, reflecting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals significant weaknesses, particularly with negative stockholders' equity of -$101.5M in 2024, indicating potential financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not applicable due to negative equity. While the company has managed to maintain low levels of debt, high liabilities pose a risk to financial health.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Nexters shows positive cash flow trends with free cash flow growth from $17.2M in 2023 to $28.1M in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the company faces challenges with volatile investing and financing cash flows.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue420.93M464.55M479.69M434.09M260.89M
Gross Profit278.92M303.86M306.03M297.92M168.34M
EBITDA36.65M56.68M19.14M4.72M-1.11M
Net Income25.53M46.12M7.30M-117.44M-751.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets272.20M320.55M322.04M312.98M211.55M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments134.81M156.03M137.14M142.80M84.56M
Total Debt1.30M2.44M1.19M1.93M1.16M
Total Liabilities373.73M420.37M470.82M474.03M313.46M
Stockholders Equity-101.53M-99.81M-148.78M-161.09M-101.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow28.09M17.20M115.02M104.08M120.48M
Operating Cash Flow28.52M17.95M116.08M105.52M120.62M
Investing Cash Flow55.90M-32.46M-171.78M-2.72M361.00K
Financing Cash Flow-44.94M-1.95M-1.90M-42.98M-56.05M

Nexters Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price15.20
Price Trends
50DMA
16.47
Negative
100DMA
14.74
Positive
200DMA
16.57
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.38
Positive
RSI
47.13
Neutral
STOCH
51.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDEV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.41, below the 50-day MA of 16.47, and below the 200-day MA of 16.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GDEV.

Nexters Risk Analysis

Nexters disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexters reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Use of generative artificial intelligence tools in our business may result in significant reputational harm and liability. Q4, 2023

Nexters Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
£1.84B9.95-15.74%3.62%2.47%-68.24%
63
Neutral
$261.07M6.72
22.99%-5.57%
$107.19M3.07-22.85%
75
Outperform
$456.39M3.8813.91%10.71%21.74%
61
Neutral
$1.60B11.39-220.61%9.37%1.64%-32.31%
56
Neutral
$205.51M494.74-2.17%147.89%96.56%
55
Neutral
$137.23M-12.32%-11.11%-90.96%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GDEV
Nexters
15.20
-9.05
-37.32%
NCTY
The9
8.90
2.53
39.72%
GMGI
Golden Matrix Group
1.54
-0.72
-31.86%
DDI
Doubledown Interactive Co
9.35
-2.00
-17.62%
MYPS
PLAYSTUDIOS
1.10
-0.61
-35.67%
PLTK
Playtika Holding
4.47
-2.05
-31.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025