Nexters (GDEV) AI Stock Analysis

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Nexters

(NASDAQ:GDEV)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$19.00

▲(16.21%Upside)

Nexters receives a solid score driven by its attractive valuation, highlighted by a low P/E ratio and an unusually high dividend yield. Technical analysis shows positive momentum, though financial performance reflects challenges with declining revenues and negative equity. Addressing these financial weaknesses is crucial for long-term sustainability.

Nexters (GDEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$296.43M

Dividend Yield1052.72%

Average Volume (3M)17.74K

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6

Beta (1Y)1.27

Revenue Growth-5.57%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees589

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength89

IndustryElectronic Gaming & Multimedia

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)N/A

Shares Outstanding18,130,090

10 Day Avg. Volume22,937

30 Day Avg. Volume17,744

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.63

Price to Book (P/B)-8.49

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio10.98

Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.97

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.66

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.13

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.30

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$70.00

Price Target Upside328.13% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Nexters Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNexters (GDEV) is a prominent gaming company known for developing and publishing mobile and social games. The company is primarily focused on creating engaging and interactive gaming experiences for a global audience, with a strong emphasis on mobile platforms. Nexters' portfolio includes popular titles such as 'Hero Wars' and 'Thrill Rush,' which have garnered significant player bases.

How the Company Makes MoneyNexters generates revenue primarily through the freemium model, where games are free to download and play but offer in-app purchases to enhance the gaming experience. This includes purchasing virtual goods, currencies, and other in-game items that provide benefits or customization options for players. Additionally, the company monetizes through advertising within its games, offering ad placements that generate income while keeping the games accessible to a wide user base. Strategic partnerships with major app stores and advertising networks also play a crucial role in maximizing revenue streams.

Nexters Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 16, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: 8.21%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 17, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in terms of revenue growth, cash flow, leadership, and successful product launches, these were offset by year-over-year declines in revenue, bookings, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA. The company is focusing on long-term product improvements and geographical expansion, but current financial indicators show areas of concern.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations

Revenue for Q3 2024 amounted to $111 million, reflecting a 5% growth quarter-over-quarter, and surpassed analysts' consensus on revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Cash Flow Increase

Cash flows generated from operating activities increased to $12 million compared to $8 million in Q3 2023, demonstrating effective cash management.

Geographical Expansion Success

Bookings in Europe grew year-over-year, increasing the region’s share of total bookings from 26% to 30%. Notably strong performances were seen in Germany, France, the UK, and Poland.

Leadership Enhancement

Appointment of Olga Loskutova as Chief Operating Officer to guide studios towards achieving strategic goals and fostering sustainable growth.

Successful Launch on Steam

The launch of Pixel Gun on Steam was a huge success, stabilizing with an average of 2,500 to 3,000 concurrent users, and the number is growing month over month.

Negative Updates

Year-over-Year Revenue Decline

Revenue for Q3 2024 declined by 9% year-over-year, primarily due to the decline in bookings.

Bookings Decline

Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, affected by reduced in-game events and monetization.

Net Profit Decrease

Net profit in Q3 2024 amounted to $15 million, a decline from $24 million in the same period last year, primarily due to lower revenue and higher marketing spend.

Adjusted EBITDA Decrease

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $16 million, down $13 million year-over-year.

Company Guidance

During the GDEV Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 5% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, reaching $111 million, despite a 9% decline year-over-year. Bookings declined by 8% year-over-year to $93 million, attributed to strategic product improvements aimed at enhancing player experience and retention. Platform commissions decreased by 13% year-over-year, while marketing investments rose by $9 million to $52 million, aligning with efforts to increase marketing efficiency. The net profit for Q3 2024 was $15 million, down from $24 million the previous year, primarily due to increased marketing spend. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $16 million, reflecting a $13 million decrease year-over-year, although operating cash flows improved to $12 million from $8 million in Q3 2023. The company highlighted strategic geographic expansion, particularly in Europe, where bookings increased the region's share from 26% to 30%. Additionally, GDEV executed a one-for-ten reverse stock split and an at-the-market offering to enhance stock liquidity and market appeal. Overall, GDEV remains focused on sustainable growth through product evolution and marketing investments.

Nexters Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nexters shows strong cash flow management with positive free cash flow growth and improved operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, the company faces challenges with declining revenues, negative equity, and decreased profitability margins, raising concerns about long-term financial sustainability.

Income Statement

Positive

Nexters has experienced fluctuating revenue with a recent decline from $464.5M in 2023 to $420.9M in 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 66.3% for 2024. However, the net profit margin decreased from 9.9% in 2023 to 6.1% in 2024. Notably, EBIT and EBITDA margins were impacted by declining revenues, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals significant weaknesses, particularly with negative stockholders' equity of -$101.5M in 2024, indicating potential financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not applicable due to negative equity. While the company has managed to maintain low levels of debt, high liabilities pose a risk to financial health.

Cash Flow

Positive

Nexters shows positive cash flow trends with free cash flow growth from $17.2M in 2023 to $28.1M in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the company faces challenges with volatile investing and financing cash flows.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
432.60M	420.93M	464.55M	479.69M	434.09M	260.89M
	Gross Profit
285.37M	278.92M	303.86M	306.03M	297.92M	168.34M
	EBIT
40.05M	40.50M	38.36M	108.34M	127.62M	-1.67M
	EBITDA
47.87M	36.65M	56.68M	19.14M	4.72M	-1.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
39.42M	25.53M	46.12M	7.30M	-117.44M	-751.00K
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
116.71M	134.81M	156.03M	137.14M	142.80M	84.56M
	Total Assets
283.39M	272.20M	320.55M	322.04M	312.98M	211.55M
	Total Debt
1.19M	1.30M	2.44M	1.19M	1.93M	1.16M
	Net Debt
-85.38M	-109.75M	-69.36M	-85.59M	-140.87M	-83.40M
	Total Liabilities
386.49M	373.73M	420.37M	470.82M	474.03M	313.46M
	Stockholders Equity
-103.10M	-101.53M	-99.81M	-148.78M	-161.09M	-101.91M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
32.99M	28.09M	17.20M	115.02M	104.08M	120.48M
	Operating Cash Flow
33.64M	28.52M	17.95M	116.08M	105.52M	120.62M
	Investing Cash Flow
32.86M	55.90M	-32.46M	-171.78M	-2.72M	361.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
-44.86M	-44.94M	-1.95M	-1.90M	-42.98M	-56.05M

Nexters Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price16.35

Price Trends

50DMA

14.80

Positive

100DMA

14.26

Positive

200DMA

17.68

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

1.03

Positive

RSI

46.40

Neutral

STOCH

14.50

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDEV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.70, above the 50-day MA of 14.80, and below the 200-day MA of 17.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GDEV.

Nexters Risk Analysis

Nexters disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nexters reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Use of generative artificial intelligence tools in our business may result in significant reputational harm and liability. Q4, 2023

Nexters Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GDEV	71 Outperform	$296.43M	7.63		1052.72%	-5.57%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.57B	5.94	-3.83%	7.78%	2.79%	-33.24%
MYPS	57 Neutral	$180.03M	―	-11.64%	―	-11.11%	-90.96%
WIMI	54 Neutral	$24.06M	4.82	8.21%	―	-8.74%	―
SKLZ	51 Neutral	$112.20M	―	-21.26%	―	-29.26%	57.78%
ZH	44 Neutral	$334.34M	―	-0.39%	―	-19.68%	99.02%
BODI	42 Neutral	$26.20M	―	-130.56%	―	-26.11%	57.68%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GDEV

Nexters

16.35

-5.17

-24.02%

WIMI

WiMi Hologram Cloud

2.45

-5.40

-68.79%

SKLZ

Skillz

6.29

-0.92

-12.76%

MYPS

PLAYSTUDIOS

1.43

-0.66

-31.58%

BODI

Beachbody Company

3.74

-5.00

-57.21%

Zhihu

3.71

0.86

30.18%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.