Ferguson PLC (FERG)
NYSE:FERG
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Ferguson PLC
(NYSE:FERG)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$235.00
▼(-9.22% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/04/26
FERG’s score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth and steady profitability) tempered by weaker recent free-cash-flow growth and meaningful leverage. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive rather than strongly bullish, and valuation is somewhat rich (P/E ~25.8) with only a modest dividend yield, which together cap the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and distributor margins
Sustained 24.1% TTM revenue growth alongside distributor margins near industry-typical levels shows a scalable core business and pricing power with trade customers. Over a 2–6 month horizon, this durable top-line momentum supports reinvestment in branches, supplier terms, and stable operating profit contribution.
Negative Factors
Declining free cash flow growth
A ~27% decline in FCF growth despite positive absolute FCF points to working-capital or timing pressures that weaken cash conversion. Less consistent cash flow reduces capacity for capex, acquisitions or dividends and raises sensitivity to inventory or receivable swings over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and distributor margins
Sustained 24.1% TTM revenue growth alongside distributor margins near industry-typical levels shows a scalable core business and pricing power with trade customers. Over a 2–6 month horizon, this durable top-line momentum supports reinvestment in branches, supplier terms, and stable operating profit contribution.
Read all positive factors
Ferguson PLC (FERG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.24B
Dividend Yield1.35%
Average Volume (3M)2.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.0
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth4.92%
EPS Growth18.72%
CountryUS
Employees35,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.99
Shares Outstanding194,392,940
10 Day Avg. Volume1,449,887
30 Day Avg. Volume2,162,744
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.62
Price to Book (P/B)7.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.44
P/FCF Ratio27.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$277.51Price Target Upside7.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)11.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.57B
Ferguson PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ferguson plc distributes plumbing and heating products in the United States and Canada. It offers plumbing and heating solutions to customers in the residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial end markets. The company also distri...
How the Company Makes Money
Ferguson makes money primarily by distributing building and infrastructure products to trade and commercial customers at a markup over its purchase cost, generating revenue when products are sold through its branch network and online platforms. It...
Ferguson PLC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 09, 2025
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid financial execution and margin expansion despite a mixed top-line backdrop. Key positives include 5% revenue growth, significant operating profit and EPS expansion (14% and ~16%), strong free cash flow and disciplined capital returns, lower leverage, healthy nonresidential and waterworks growth, and an upgraded operating margin guide. Offsetting these strengths are persistent residential softness, notable HVAC weakness tied to regulatory transitions and consumer behavior, Canada underperformance, elevated working capital timing effects, and commodity mix volatility. Management positioned the company as well-capitalized and strategically invested to capture medium-term tailwinds (large capital projects, HVAC/plumbing dual-trade expansion, waterworks), while cautioning on potential lumpiness and near-term market pressure.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Net sales of $8.2 billion, up ~5% year-over-year (Bill: +5.1%), driven by organic growth (~4%–4.4%) and ~1% from acquisitions.
Negative Updates
Residential Weakness
Residential end markets (≈half of US revenue) remain challenged with new housing starts and permits weak; residential revenue down ~1% in the quarter and residential trade plumbing down 4%.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Net sales of $8.2 billion, up ~5% year-over-year (Bill: +5.1%), driven by organic growth (~4%–4.4%) and ~1% from acquisitions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ferguson updated its calendar 2025 guidance to roughly 5% revenue growth and an operating margin of 9.4%–9.6% (midpoint ~9.5%, up from prior 9.2%–9.6%), with interest expense of about $190 million, CapEx of roughly $350 million (upper end of prior guide), and an effective tax rate near 26%. The company said it will operate at the lower end of its 1–2x net debt/EBITDA target (current net debt/EBITDA = 1.1x), pursue bolt‑on M&A and organic investment, return capital when below the low end of the range, has ~$800 million remaining on its buyback authorization, and recently raised the quarterly dividend to $0.89 (a 7% increase).Ferguson PLC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 38.65B | 30.76B | 29.64B | 29.73B | 28.57B | 22.79B |
| Gross Profit | 11.81B | 9.44B | 9.05B | 9.03B | 8.76B | 6.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.83B | 3.06B | 2.98B | 2.97B | 3.12B | 2.26B |
| Net Income | 2.35B | 1.86B | 1.74B | 1.89B | 2.12B | 1.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.15B | 17.73B | 16.57B | 15.99B | 15.66B | 13.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 557.00M | 674.00M | 571.00M | 669.00M | 771.00M | 1.33B |
| Total Debt | 5.41B | 5.97B | 5.52B | 5.26B | 5.13B | 3.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.29B | 11.90B | 10.96B | 10.96B | 11.00B | 8.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.86B | 5.83B | 5.62B | 5.04B | 4.67B | 5.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.60B | 1.50B | 2.28B | 859.00M | 1.14B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.91B | 1.87B | 2.72B | 1.15B | 1.38B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -281.17M | -543.00M | -601.00M | -1.05B | -922.00M | -125.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.38B | -1.29B | -1.31B | -1.81B | -744.00M | -2.05B |
Ferguson PLC Technical Analysis
Positive
258.86
Price Trends
243.72
Positive
240.41
Positive
234.81
Positive
Market Momentum
5.08
Negative
67.01
Neutral
97.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FERG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 258.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.46, above the 50-day MA of 243.72, and above the 200-day MA of 234.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FERG.
Ferguson PLC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $52.59B | 39.20 | 33.25% | 2.10% | 6.92% | 5.98% | |
77 Outperform | $54.98B | 28.33 | 45.93% | 0.86% | 4.83% | -3.60% | |
77 Outperform | $16.91B | 25.70 | 18.04% | 3.38% | -0.71% | -0.17% | |
67 Neutral | $10.43B | 23.55 | 23.20% | ― | 8.09% | 6.33% | |
66 Neutral | $50.24B | 28.00 | 35.56% | 1.35% | 4.92% | 18.72% | |
66 Neutral | $14.82B | 18.89 | 13.02% | 0.72% | 5.28% | 1.97% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FERG
Ferguson PLC
258.86
95.61
58.56%
FAST
Fastenal Company
44.62
4.63
11.59%
GWW
WW Grainger
1,155.42
164.47
16.60%
WSO
Watsco
410.63
-88.29
-17.70%
WCC
Wesco International
310.11
161.27
108.35%
CNM
Core & Main
53.94
4.45
8.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.