Fastenal Company (FAST)
NASDAQ:FAST
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Fastenal Company
(NASDAQ:FAST)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(5.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/21/26
FAST scores well on financial quality (strong margins, solid cash generation, and conservative leverage) and a confident earnings outlook pointing to potential acceleration in 2026. Offsetting factors are a weaker longer-term technical backdrop (still below the 100/200-day averages with a high stochastic) and a rich valuation (P/E ~40) that raises execution risk if growth or margins disappoint.
Positive Factors
Profitability and Margin Stability
High and stable gross and net margins reflect durable pricing power, procurement scale, and product mix advantages in industrial distribution. This profitability supports sustained free cash flow, funds reinvestment and dividends, and provides a buffer versus cyclical demand swings over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Pressure from Supplier Timing
Supplier rebate timing and true-ups introduce recurring variability to gross margin realization, making profitability more sensitive to vendor terms and timing. If supplier rebates or slower pricing in non-fastener categories persist, it can compress long-term margins and complicate planning for incremental margin targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability and Margin Stability
High and stable gross and net margins reflect durable pricing power, procurement scale, and product mix advantages in industrial distribution. This profitability supports sustained free cash flow, funds reinvestment and dividends, and provides a buffer versus cyclical demand swings over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Fastenal Company (FAST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$52.41B
Dividend Yield2.1%
Average Volume (3M)8.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.6
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth6.92%
EPS Growth5.98%
CountryUS
Employees21,339
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding1,148,328,500
10 Day Avg. Volume8,823,221
30 Day Avg. Volume7,997,790
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.66
Price to Book (P/B)11.68
Price to Sales (P/S)5.62
P/FCF Ratio43.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda29.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.63Price Target Upside2.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.06B
Fastenal Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, North America, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial a...
How the Company Makes Money
Fastenal generates revenue primarily through the sale of industrial and construction products, including fasteners, tools, and safety equipment. The company employs a direct sales model, leveraging its extensive branch network to reach customers a...
Fastenal Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFastenal Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial achievements—double-digit Q4 growth, record FY sales, rising digital adoption (FMI and e-business), improved SG&A leverage, robust cash generation, and clear momentum heading into 2026. These positives were balanced against margin pressures from timing-related COGS and supplier rebate effects, slower-than-expected pricing in certain non-fastener categories, declines in low-volume customer sites by design, working capital increases, and mixed macro demand. Overall, management presented confidence in continued growth while acknowledging near-term margin and pricing headwinds that they expect to manage.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth in Q4
Daily sales rose just over 11% in Q4; net sales were $2.3 billion in the quarter, up ~11% year over year.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin decreased ~50 basis points in 2025 year over year, driven primarily by timing elements in cost of goods sold and supplier rebate timing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth in Q4
Daily sales rose just over 11% in Q4; net sales were $2.3 billion in the quarter, up ~11% year over year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management indicated they expect strong 2026 momentum, signaling they “anticipate double‑digit net sales growth in 2026” driven by FMI and digital solutions and key‑account wins; they plan to increase CapEx to roughly 3.5% of sales (vs. $230M, 2.8% of sales in 2025) to fund hub capacity, additional FMI devices and IT, and suggested incremental margins could be in the high‑20s if top‑line targets are met; they also noted pricing carryover but cautioned uncertainty, that the fastener expansion project will anniversary after Q1 (affecting gross margin dynamics), and reaffirmed strong cash returns and flexibility—2025 operating cash flow was ~ $370M (~125% of net income), ROIC rose ~90 bps to ~31%, and they returned just over $1.0B in dividends (~80% of 2025 net income).Fastenal Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.20B | 7.55B | 7.35B | 6.98B | 6.01B |
| Gross Profit | 3.69B | 3.40B | 3.35B | 3.22B | 2.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.66B | 1.69B | 1.71B | 1.63B | 1.39B |
| Net Income | 1.26B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.09B | 925.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.05B | 4.70B | 4.46B | 4.55B | 4.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 276.80M | 255.80M | 221.30M | 230.10M | 236.20M |
| Total Debt | 441.90M | 485.40M | 535.00M | 802.10M | 636.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.11B | 1.08B | 1.11B | 1.39B | 1.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.94B | 3.62B | 3.35B | 3.16B | 3.04B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.05B | 946.80M | 1.26B | 767.20M | 613.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.30B | 1.17B | 1.43B | 941.00M | 770.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -231.00M | -214.50M | -161.20M | -163.00M | -148.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.05B | -913.70M | -1.28B | -774.90M | -627.10M |
Fastenal Company Technical Analysis
Positive
45.64
Price Trends
45.63
Positive
43.39
Positive
44.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
52.40
Neutral
75.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FAST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.52, above the 50-day MA of 45.63, and above the 200-day MA of 44.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FAST.
Fastenal Company Risk Analysis
Fastenal Company disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fastenal Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fastenal Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $52.50B | 28.33 | 45.93% | 0.86% | 4.83% | -3.60% | |
75 Outperform | $52.41B | 36.60 | 32.83% | 2.10% | 6.92% | 5.98% | |
72 Outperform | $10.17B | 25.36 | 21.74% | 0.70% | 4.03% | 5.93% | |
66 Neutral | $13.56B | 18.89 | 13.02% | 0.72% | 5.28% | 1.97% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $14.29B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
62 Neutral | $5.06B | 31.30 | 15.00% | 3.96% | -1.35% | -22.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FAST
Fastenal Company
45.64
10.77
30.90%
AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies
272.54
68.02
33.26%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
103.84
1.68
1.65%
MSM
MSC Industrial
90.71
23.41
34.79%
GWW
WW Grainger
1,108.15
196.30
21.53%
WCC
Wesco International
278.57
146.80
111.40%
Fastenal Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Fastenal announces CEO transition and leadership succession plan
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025
Fastenal announced on December 22, 2025, that longtime chief executive Daniel L. Florness, who has been with the company since 1996 and CEO since 2016, informed the board on December 19, 2025 of his decision to step down as CEO and resign from the...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Fastenal Appoints Max Tunnicliff as New CFO
Positive
Nov 3, 2025
On November 3, 2025, Fastenal Company announced the appointment of Max Tunnicliff as Chief Financial Officer and Senior Executive Vice President, effective November 10, 2025. Tunnicliff, who previously held senior financial roles at Beko Europe an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.