Fastenal Company (FAST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $50.46B
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 6.92%
• EPS Growth: 5.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,339
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 1,148,057,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,984,872
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,817,405
• PEG Ratio: 3.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.80
• 1Y Price Target: $45.13
• Price Target Upside: 3.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.00B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $48.00 ▲(10.04% Upside)

FAST scores well on financial quality (strong margins, solid cash generation, and conservative leverage) and a confident earnings outlook pointing to potential acceleration in 2026. Offsetting factors are a weaker longer-term technical backdrop (still below the 100/200-day averages with a high stochastic) and a rich valuation (P/E ~40) that raises execution risk if growth or margins disappoint.

Positive Factors

Profitability and Margin Stability

High and stable gross and net margins reflect durable pricing power, procurement scale, and product mix advantages in industrial distribution. This profitability supports sustained free cash flow, funds reinvestment and dividends, and provides a buffer versus cyclical demand swings over the medium term.

Conservative Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Relatively low leverage and strong free cash generation give Fastenal flexibility to fund targeted CapEx, support dividends, and pursue strategic investments without stressing liquidity. This conservative financial posture reduces refinancing risk and supports capital allocation through industry cycles.

Digital/FMI Adoption and Channel Shift

Rapid adoption of FMI and e-business creates recurring, captive demand via managed inventory and vending solutions. Digital penetration deepens customer relationships, raises switching costs, improves order predictability, and enables scalable margin expansion as services scale across the branch network.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin Pressure from Supplier Timing

Supplier rebate timing and true-ups introduce recurring variability to gross margin realization, making profitability more sensitive to vendor terms and timing. If supplier rebates or slower pricing in non-fastener categories persist, it can compress long-term margins and complicate planning for incremental margin targets.

Slowing Top-Line Momentum

A clear slowdown in revenue growth reduces near-term operating leverage and raises execution requirements to meet aggressive future targets. Sustained cooler growth could limit ROIC improvement, pressure incremental margins, and make funding higher planned CapEx more reliant on successful conversion of digital/large-account initiatives.

Working Capital Build for Expansion

Rising AR and inventory tied to product expansion increases working capital needs and can depress free cash flow conversion if turns slow. This ties up liquidity, raises short- to medium-term financing dependency, and elevates risk if end-market demand softens before expanded capacity is fully absorbed.

Fastenal Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, North America, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, which are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It also offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations; and non-residential construction market, which includes general, electrical, plumbing, sheet metal, and road contractors. It also serves farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. The company distributes its products through a network of 3,209 in-market locations and 15 distribution centers. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Fastenal generates revenue primarily through the sale of industrial and construction products, including fasteners, tools, and safety equipment. The company employs a direct sales model, leveraging its extensive branch network to reach customers across multiple sectors. Key revenue streams include regular sales transactions, inventory management services, and vending solutions that provide automatic replenishment of supplies. Additionally, Fastenal has established significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, allowing it to offer a wide range of products and competitive pricing. The company's focus on value-added services, such as customized inventory solutions and supply chain management, further contributes to its earnings by encouraging long-term customer relationships and repeat business.

Fastenal Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent profitability (gross margin ~45–46%, net margin ~15–16%) alongside multi-year revenue expansion to ~$8.2B and solid free cash flow generation. Balance sheet leverage is modest with debt trending down and equity compounding. The main risk flagged in the statements is cooling top-line momentum in the most recent years and some reduced visibility from missing/invalid 2025 cash-flow ratio fields.

Income Statement

Fastenal shows high and steady profitability, with gross margin consistently ~45–46% and net margin holding around ~15–16% from 2020–2025. Revenue has grown from ~$5.6B (2020) to ~$8.2B (2025), indicating solid multi-year expansion, though growth has clearly cooled in the last two years (low-single-digit growth in 2024–2025 versus a stronger 2022). Overall, the income statement reflects strong pricing/discipline and resilient earnings power, with the main weakness being the recent slowdown in top-line momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned, with relatively low debt versus equity (debt-to-equity around ~0.13–0.25 from 2021–2024) and total debt trending down into 2025. Equity has expanded steadily over time (roughly $2.7B in 2020 to ~$3.9B in 2025), supporting a stronger capital base. Returns on equity are strong in the years provided (roughly ~30%+ in 2020–2024), though some 2025 ratio fields appear missing/zeroed in the dataset, limiting comparability for the latest year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong, with operating cash flow generally covering net income well (above 1x in 2020–2024) and free cash flow consistently substantial (about ~$0.6B–$1.26B across 2020–2025). Free cash flow as a share of net income is healthy and stable (about ~0.80–0.88), suggesting earnings quality is solid. The main weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (notably down in 2021 and 2024), and the 2025 operating cash flow coverage ratio is shown as 0.0 (likely missing/invalid in the provided data), which reduces visibility into the most recent period’s conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.20B	7.55B	7.35B	6.98B	6.01B
Gross Profit	3.69B	3.40B	3.35B	3.22B	2.78B
EBITDA	1.66B	1.69B	1.71B	1.63B	1.39B
Net Income	1.26B	1.15B	1.16B	1.09B	925.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.05B	4.70B	4.46B	4.55B	4.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	276.80M	255.80M	221.30M	230.10M	236.20M
Total Debt	441.90M	485.40M	535.00M	802.10M	636.80M
Total Liabilities	1.11B	1.08B	1.11B	1.39B	1.26B
Stockholders Equity	3.94B	3.62B	3.35B	3.16B	3.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.05B	946.80M	1.26B	767.20M	613.50M
Operating Cash Flow	1.30B	1.17B	1.43B	941.00M	770.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-231.00M	-214.50M	-161.20M	-163.00M	-148.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.05B	-913.70M	-1.28B	-774.90M	-627.10M

Fastenal Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 43.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FAST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.48, above the 50-day MA of 41.58, and above the 200-day MA of 43.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FAST.

Fastenal Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FAST	75 Outperform	$50.46B	40.32	33.30%	2.10%	6.92%	5.98%
WCC	75 Outperform	$14.00B	22.58	13.06%	0.72%	5.28%	1.97%
GWW	73 Outperform	$50.29B	29.52	48.98%	0.86%	4.83%	-3.60%
AIT	72 Outperform	$9.89B	24.96	22.02%	0.70%	4.03%	5.93%
GPC	69 Neutral	$19.39B	24.01	17.05%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
MSM	64 Neutral	$4.66B	22.84	14.84%	3.96%	-1.35%	-22.24%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Fastenal Company Corporate Events

Fastenal announces CEO transition and leadership succession plan

Fastenal announced on December 22, 2025, that longtime chief executive Daniel L. Florness, who has been with the company since 1996 and CEO since 2016, informed the board on December 19, 2025 of his decision to step down as CEO and resign from the board effective July 16, 2026; he plans to remain with the company as a strategic advisor to the incoming CEO until early 2028 to support a smooth succession. The board simultaneously named current president and chief sales officer Jeffery M. Watts as Florness’s successor as CEO, also effective July 16, 2026, and signaled its intention to appoint him to the board at that time, underscoring an orderly, internally driven leadership transition that aligns with a succession process begun in 2024 and is intended to preserve Fastenal’s growth trajectory and cultural continuity for shareholders, employees and customers.

The most recent analyst rating on (FAST) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fastenal Company stock, see the FAST Stock Forecast page.

Fastenal Appoints Max Tunnicliff as New CFO

On November 3, 2025, Fastenal Company announced the appointment of Max Tunnicliff as Chief Financial Officer and Senior Executive Vice President, effective November 10, 2025. Tunnicliff, who previously held senior financial roles at Beko Europe and Whirlpool Corporation, brings extensive global financial experience to Fastenal. This strategic appointment aims to strengthen Fastenal’s financial foundation and support its growth strategy. Concurrently, Sheryl A. Lisowski will continue as Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Treasurer, following her interim CFO role.

The most recent analyst rating on (FAST) stock is a Hold with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fastenal Company stock, see the FAST Stock Forecast page.