Expeditors International (EXPD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.59B
• Dividend Yield: 1.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 12.54%
• EPS Growth: 19.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,203
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 133,503,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,884,701
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,775,411
• PEG Ratio: 6.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.01
• 1Y Price Target: $136.90
• Price Target Upside: -6.69% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.16B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $150.00 ▲(2.24% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by strong balance-sheet conservatism and cash-flow strength, which support resilience through freight-cycle swings. This is tempered by a meaningful revenue downturn and margin drift versus peak years, and by weak technical signals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is acceptable but not clearly cheap, while the new $3B buyback is a modest positive offset.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Very strong cash conversion (TTM OCF ~$1.01B; FCF ~$0.95B; FCF-to-net income ~0.95) supports durable self-funding. This underpins reinvestment, dividends and buybacks, reducing reliance on external financing and enhancing resilience across freight-cycle swings.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.24) and manageable absolute debt provide financial flexibility and low interest burden. High ROE (~35.6%) signals efficient capital use, allowing the company to absorb cyclical shocks and maintain capacity for strategic investments or returns.

Shareholder Returns Policy

A $3B buyback authorization paired with a long dividend track record signals management confidence in recurring cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Over time this supports per-share value and provides a durable mechanism to return excess cash to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Revenue Downturn

A material TTM revenue decline and margin drift versus 2021–2023 reflect a meaningful cyclical reset. Prolonged lower volumes compress operating leverage, reduce scalable profitability, and constrain sustainable EBITDA growth even if cash conversion remains strong.

Working-Capital Sensitivity

Despite healthy FCF, operating cash flow coverage is volatile and below 1.0 (TTM ~0.49), indicating sensitivity to working-capital swings. In downturns this can pressure liquidity, force short-term borrowing, or require cutting capex/dividends to preserve balance-sheet strength.

Eroding Equity Cushion

Equity trading below 2021–2022 levels reduces the company’s capital cushion. A thinner equity base amplifies leverage metrics in stress scenarios, limits tolerance for future losses, and may constrain ability to pursue acquisitions or sustain aggressive buybacks if earnings weaken.

Expeditors International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. The company offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other supply chain solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance, consulting, cargo security, and solutions. In addition, it acts as a freight consolidator or as an agent for the airline, which carries the shipment. Further, the company provides ancillary services that include preparation of shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance services, negotiation of letters of credit, and the preparation of documentation to comply with local export laws. Its customers include retailing and wholesaling, electronics, technology, and industrial and manufacturing companies. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Expeditors International generates revenue primarily through its logistics and transportation services. The company earns money by charging fees for freight forwarding services, which include the transportation and handling of cargo via air and ocean. Additionally, Expeditors provides customs brokerage services, which involve managing the complexities of importing and exporting goods across international borders. Key revenue streams also come from warehousing and distribution services, where the company charges clients for storage and order fulfillment. Significant partnerships with airlines, shipping lines, and other carriers enhance its service offerings and operational efficiencies, allowing the company to optimize costs and maintain competitive pricing. Furthermore, Expeditors benefits from a strong reputation and established relationships within the logistics industry, contributing to customer loyalty and repeat business.

Expeditors International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are solid, led by strong cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.01B; free cash flow ~$0.95B with ~0.95 FCF-to-net income) and conservative leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.24). Offsetting this, the income statement shows a notable cyclical slowdown with TTM revenue materially down year over year and some margin compression versus 2021–2023 peaks.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is materially down versus the prior year (revenue growth -0.884), reflecting a sharp cyclical/volume reset. Profitability remains solid for the industry, with TTM net margin ~7.3% and EBITDA margin ~10.3%, but margins have drifted lower versus 2021–2023 levels. Net income has held roughly flat (~$811M TTM vs ~$810M in 2024), showing resilience, though the earnings profile is less robust than the 2021–2022 peak.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet leverage is conservative, with low debt relative to equity (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.24) and a manageable absolute debt load (~$571M) against a sizeable equity base (~$2.36B). Returns on equity remain strong (TTM ~35.6%), indicating efficient capital use. The main watch item is equity trending below the 2021–2022 level, which reduces balance-sheet cushion versus peak conditions, though overall financial flexibility still looks favorable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM operating cash flow is ~${1.01}B and free cash flow is ~${0.95}B, with free cash flow closely matching earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.95), signaling good earnings quality. Free cash flow rebounded strongly versus 2024 (growth ~3.322). A weakness is that operating cash flow is not consistently strong relative to near-term obligations (coverage ratio remains below 1.0 in most periods, including TTM ~0.49), indicating some working-capital/volatility sensitivity despite strong free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.07B	10.60B	9.30B	17.07B	16.52B
Gross Profit	1.69B	1.35B	1.25B	2.17B	2.17B
EBITDA	1.15B	1.10B	1.01B	1.88B	1.98B
Net Income	813.76M	810.07M	752.88M	1.36B	1.42B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.89B	4.75B	4.52B	5.59B	7.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.31B	1.15B	1.51B	2.03B	1.73B
Total Debt	1.03B	568.94M	527.73M	518.47M	467.66M
Total Liabilities	2.53B	2.53B	2.13B	2.48B	4.11B
Stockholders Equity	2.36B	2.22B	2.39B	3.11B	3.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	953.40M	682.89M	1.01B	2.04B	832.25M
Operating Cash Flow	1.01B	723.36M	1.05B	2.13B	868.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-44.70M	-40.52M	-39.43M	-87.71M	-36.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-802.48M	-1.03B	-1.54B	-1.68B	-613.55M

Expeditors International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 146.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXPD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 146.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.71, below the 50-day MA of 155.05, and above the 200-day MA of 131.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXPD.

Expeditors International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDX	73 Outperform	$87.78B	17.37	15.87%	1.94%	3.09%	14.94%
JBHT	69 Neutral	$21.41B	31.73	15.79%	0.89%	-1.60%	4.87%
EXPD	66 Neutral	$19.59B	24.87	35.40%	1.02%	12.54%	19.59%
UPS	66 Neutral	$88.37B	11.75	33.83%	6.55%	-1.25%	-2.25%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CHRW	61 Neutral	$21.92B	32.93	32.91%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%
LSTR	58 Neutral	$5.43B	44.08	14.41%	2.56%	-0.74%	-32.79%

Expeditors International Corporate Events

Expeditors International Unveils New $3 Billion Share Buyback

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., a global logistics provider based in Bellevue, Washington, offers air and ocean freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, vendor consolidation, cargo insurance and a range of time‑definite transportation, warehousing, distribution and customized logistics services through a worldwide office network. On February 24, 2026, the company announced that its board had authorized a new share repurchase program on February 23, 2026, permitting buybacks of up to $3 billion of common stock once its existing authorization, which allows repurchases down to 130 million shares and was approved in February 2024, expires.

Management framed the move as part of a capital deployment strategy that prioritizes organic growth but anticipates substantial excess cash from a capital‑efficient business model and strong operating cash flows. By pairing its long‑standing dividend track record with this sizable repurchase capacity, Expeditors aims to underline its commitment to returning significant cash to shareholders and to reinforce its appeal to income‑focused and total‑return investors in the logistics sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXPD) stock is a Buy with a $183.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expeditors International stock, see the EXPD Stock Forecast page.

Expeditors International Appoints Roberto Martinez President, Global Products

On May 23, 2025, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. entered into an employment agreement with Roberto A. Martinez to serve as President, Global Products, effective June 1, 2025. The agreement sets his annual base salary at $100,000, subject to review, and makes him eligible for incentive-based compensation determined by the board or its compensation committee.

The contract includes severance benefits in the case of termination without cause or qualifying resignation, contingent on a release of claims, and imposes a six-month non-compete and 12-month non-solicitation period. The company noted that Martinez has no family relationships with directors or executive officers and no related-party transactions requiring additional disclosure beyond what was reported in its most recent proxy statement filed on March 25, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXPD) stock is a Buy with a $183.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expeditors International stock, see the EXPD Stock Forecast page.