Elastic (ESTC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: 17.42%
• EPS Growth: -228.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,403
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 106,270,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,432,083
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,597,541
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 240.15
• 1Y Price Target: $118.75
• Price Target Upside: 37.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $88.00 ▲(1.64% Upside)

Elastic's strong earnings call performance, with significant revenue growth and raised guidance, is a major positive factor. However, ongoing profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio weigh on the overall score. The technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Elastic's strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for its products, driven by cloud and self-managed offerings, supporting long-term expansion.

AI and Product Innovation

The introduction of Agent Builder enhances Elastic's product offerings, positioning it strongly in AI, which is crucial for future competitiveness and market relevance.

Cash Flow Management

Effective cash flow management ensures Elastic can invest in growth opportunities while maintaining financial stability, crucial for long-term success.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues could hinder Elastic's ability to reinvest in its business and compete effectively, impacting long-term financial health.

Negative Return on Equity

Negative ROE indicates inefficiencies in generating shareholder returns, which could affect investor confidence and long-term capital raising ability.

U.S. Public Sector Challenges

Challenges in the U.S. public sector could limit growth opportunities in a significant market segment, affecting Elastic's overall revenue potential.

Elastic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Elastic N.V., a search company, delivers technology solutions designed to run in public or private clouds in multi-cloud environments. It primarily offers Elastic Stack, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as perform search, analysis, and visualization. The company's Elastic Stack product portfolio comprises Elasticsearch, a distributed, real-time search and analytics engine, and data store for various types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the Elastic Stack; Beats, a single-purpose data shippers for sending data from edge machines to Elasticsearch or Logstash; Elastic Agent that offers integrated host protection and central management services; and Logstash, a data processing pipeline for ingesting data into Elasticsearch or other storage systems. It also provides software solutions on the Elastic Stack that address cases, including app search, workplace search, logging, metrics, application performance management, and synthetic monitoring. The company's platform solutions provide new capabilities that helps users to combine the benefits of the Elastic Stack. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Elastic generates revenue primarily through subscription-based models that offer access to its commercial offerings, including advanced features and support associated with its Elastic Stack products. Key revenue streams include subscriptions for Elastic Cloud, which provides a managed service for Elasticsearch, and license fees for on-premises deployments. Additionally, the company earns revenue through professional services, including training and consulting. Strategic partnerships with cloud providers such as AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings by facilitating bundled offerings and integrations that attract more customers.

Elastic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Elastic demonstrates strong gross margins and cash flow management, but profitability remains a concern with negative net income. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, though returns on equity are negative. Overall, the company shows potential for improvement in profitability while maintaining strong cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Elastic shows a solid gross profit margin of 75.19% TTM, indicating strong cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -5.38% TTM, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. Revenue growth is modest at 4.58% TTM, suggesting a slowdown compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are slightly positive, indicating some operational improvements but still under pressure.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.61 TTM, showing a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -9.36% TTM, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 38.49% TTM, suggesting a stable capital structure with a reasonable proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Elastic's free cash flow growth is strong at 19.93% TTM, highlighting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.53 TTM, showing robust cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.55B	1.48B	1.27B	1.07B	862.37M	608.49M
Gross Profit	1.17B	1.10B	937.24M	772.36M	630.18M	447.44M
EBITDA	33.17M	6.05M	-78.63M	-171.49M	-157.34M	-104.29M
Net Income	-83.49M	-108.11M	61.72M	-236.16M	-203.85M	-129.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.52B	2.59B	2.24B	1.74B	1.64B	973.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.49B	1.40B	1.08B	915.21M	860.95M	400.81M
Total Debt	594.17M	595.01M	593.70M	594.23M	594.22M	28.18M
Total Liabilities	1.55B	1.67B	1.50B	1.34B	1.23B	522.34M
Stockholders Equity	971.36M	927.23M	738.18M	398.90M	415.43M	450.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	314.00M	261.82M	145.31M	32.98M	-1.75M	18.32M
Operating Cash Flow	318.25M	266.17M	148.76M	35.66M	5.67M	22.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-285.52M	-118.67M	-287.96M	-272.95M	-127.27M	-1.52M
Financing Cash Flow	36.53M	40.95M	40.05M	17.47M	602.13M	77.26M

Elastic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 86.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESTC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 86.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.73, above the 50-day MA of 86.32, and below the 200-day MA of 89.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ESTC.

Elastic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEGA	76 Outperform	$10.36B	41.36	51.96%	0.15%	17.00%	120.21%
NICE	73 Outperform	$8.19B	15.32	15.07%	―	11.72%	37.05%
ESTC	65 Neutral	$9.41B	―	-9.65%	―	17.42%	-228.98%
U	64 Neutral	$15.16B	―	-13.64%	―	-8.23%	48.57%
CVLT	62 Neutral	$5.67B	70.47	32.87%	―	22.02%	-55.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
KC	48 Neutral	$3.67B	―	-31.02%	―	20.42%	-9.39%

Elastic Corporate Events

Elastic Approves $29.3M Equity Award for CEO

On October 13, 2025, Elastic N.V.’s board approved a special performance-based equity award for CEO Ashutosh Kulkarni, valued at $29.3 million. This award aims to align Kulkarni’s interests with shareholders and incentivize his leadership in executing the company’s growth strategy, emphasizing substantial shareholder value creation. The award, tied to rigorous share price and performance goals, underscores the company’s commitment to transformational growth and securing a leading position in the Generative AI market.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESTC) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Elastic stock, see the ESTC Stock Forecast page.

Elastic Announces $500 Million Share Repurchase Program

On October 9, 2025, Elastic‘s Board of Directors approved a $500 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in the company’s business strategy and execution. The program, which has no expiration date, allows Elastic to buy back shares based on market conditions and other factors, aiming to enhance shareholder value while maintaining investment in its business.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESTC) stock is a Hold with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Elastic stock, see the ESTC Stock Forecast page.

Elastic Approves Key Proposals at Shareholder Meeting

On September 30, 2025, Elastic N.V. held its annual general meeting of shareholders in Amsterdam, where ten proposals were voted on and passed. Key decisions included the appointment of Ashutosh Kulkarni and Steven Schuurman as directors, adoption of the company’s annual accounts, and the authorization of the board to issue shares and repurchase ordinary shares, reflecting strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic directions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESTC) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Elastic stock, see the ESTC Stock Forecast page.

Elastic N.V. Surpasses Q1 Expectations with Strong Growth

Elastic N.V. Reports Strong Q1 Earnings Amidst Complex Macro Environment

Elastic N.V. Maintains Stability Amid Unchanged Risk Factors: Vigilance Advised for Stakeholders

Elastic N.V. continues to face the same risk factors previously disclosed, with no significant changes reported. This stability in risk factors suggests that the company has not encountered new threats or challenges that could materially impact its operations. However, stakeholders should remain vigilant, as the absence of new risks does not eliminate the potential for existing risks to evolve. Continuous monitoring of these factors is essential to ensure the company’s resilience in a dynamic market environment.

Elastic N.V. Reports Strong Q1 Fiscal 2026 Growth

Elastic N.V., a leader in search technology and artificial intelligence, specializes in transforming data into actionable insights across search, observability, and security solutions. The company, known for its Elastic Search AI Platform, serves a broad spectrum of industries, including more than half of the Fortune 500 companies.

Elastic Director Sohaib Abbasi to Step Down

On August 22, 2025, Sohaib Abbasi announced he would not seek re-election as a non-executive director at Elastic‘s upcoming annual general meeting. Elastic reported a strong financial performance for Q1 fiscal 2026, with a 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $415 million. The company highlighted significant growth in its Elastic Cloud and subscription revenues, alongside key product innovations and strategic partnerships. Elastic’s advancements in AI and cloud services are expected to enhance its market position and offer substantial value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESTC) stock is a Hold with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Elastic stock, see the ESTC Stock Forecast page.