Evolus (EOLS) AI Stock Analysis

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Evolus

(NASDAQ:EOLS)

51Neutral

Evolus shows strong revenue growth and has achieved profitability ahead of schedule, which is a positive development. However, ongoing profitability challenges, a weak balance sheet, and bearish technical indicators weigh down the overall score. The negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield further impact the valuation perspective. Investors might consider the stock's growth potential but should remain cautious due to existing financial vulnerabilities.

Positive Factors

Profitability

EOLS is on track for profitability in 2025, with a reiterated goal of achieving $700 million in revenues by 2028.

Regulatory Approval

The FDA approved Evolysse for facial lines and folds, making it the first HA filler to include wrinkles from weight loss in the label.

Revenue Growth

The strong sales performance in 4Q enabled the company to achieve full-year profitability with a positive non-GAAP operating income of $0.3M for 2024, one year ahead of expectations.

Negative Factors

Earnings Impact

The 4Q24 earnings update was mostly a non-event, given the company's prior disclosures and thus is unlikely to drive major EOLS share movements.

Economic Environment

The current economic environment has brought significant uncertainty and dynamics that management could not have anticipated.

Economic Sensitivity

The dermal filler market is more economically sensitive given the higher price point.

Evolus (EOLS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$598.67M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)879.03K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.11

Revenue Growth31.76%

EPS Growth24.85%

CountryUS

Employees332

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength69

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.81

Shares Outstanding63,586,754

10 Day Avg. Volume1,164,691

30 Day Avg. Volume879,029

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)3.11

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)43.10

P/FCF Ratio60.10

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$24.83

Price Target Upside160.27% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

Evolus Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvolus, Inc., a performance beauty company, provides medical aesthetic products for physicians and their patients in the United States. It offers Jeuveau, a proprietary 900 kilodalton purified botulinum toxin type A formulation for the temporary improvement in the appearance of moderate to severe glabellar lines in adults. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyEvolus generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aesthetic product, Jeuveau®. The company targets its sales efforts towards dermatologists, plastic surgeons, and aesthetic practitioners, leveraging a specialized sales force to promote its product. Jeuveau® is distributed through a network of third-party distributors and direct sales channels. A significant portion of Evolus's revenue is derived from the U.S. market, although the company is also expanding its presence internationally. In addition to direct sales, Evolus engages in strategic partnerships and distribution agreements to enhance market penetration and broaden its customer base. The company focuses heavily on branding and marketing initiatives to increase product awareness and drive demand, which are critical factors in its revenue generation strategy.

Evolus Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Evolus is showing signs of growth in revenue and gross profit margins, but it remains unprofitable with ongoing net losses. The balance sheet is weighed down by low equity levels, and cash flow from operations is negative, though showing signs of improvement. The company must focus on improving profitability and strengthening its balance sheet to enhance financial stability and investor confidence.

Income Statement

Neutral

Evolus has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, increasing from $34.9 million in 2019 to $264.3 million in 2024. However, the company is still facing profitability challenges, with negative net income each year. The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting better cost management. Despite this, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate ongoing operational losses.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Evolus's balance sheet shows a concerning debt-to-equity ratio due to low equity levels, which have been negative in several years. The company’s total debt has decreased, but stockholders' equity remains minimal, affecting overall financial stability. Positive cash balances partially mitigate these risks, but improvements in equity are needed for stronger financial health.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow from operations remains negative, but there has been a decrease in the deficit over time, indicating potential improvements. Free cash flow is also negative, reflecting continued cash burn. However, the company has been able to secure financing to bolster cash reserves, which is crucial for operations in the short term.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
264.31M	202.09M	148.62M	99.67M	56.54M
	Gross Profit
180.34M	140.53M	92.73M	56.14M	38.24M
	EBIT
-34.41M	-49.23M	-57.58M	-63.62M	-68.70M
	EBITDA
-25.00M	-41.81M	-60.72M	-39.06M	-144.75M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-50.42M	-61.69M	-74.41M	-46.81M	-163.01M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
86.95M	62.84M	53.92M	146.26M	107.56M
	Total Assets
232.57M	189.00M	177.98M	257.48M	209.07M
	Total Debt
8.47M	126.55M	73.20M	74.74M	138.32M
	Net Debt
-78.48M	63.71M	19.28M	-71.51M	35.76M
	Total Liabilities
227.05M	209.69M	159.48M	175.61M	282.03M
	Stockholders Equity
5.52M	-20.69M	18.50M	-422.88M	-376.07M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-19.47M	-35.63M	-11.71M	-34.36M	-61.01M
	Operating Cash Flow
-18.00M	-34.01M	-8.77M	-33.39M	-57.87M
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.82M	-1.63M	-1.39M	4.03M	12.19M
	Financing Cash Flow
47.41M	44.64M	-1.52M	73.05M	38.35M

Evolus Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.54

Price Trends

50DMA

13.02

Negative

100DMA

12.54

Negative

200DMA

13.53

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.41

Positive

RSI

34.77

Neutral

STOCH

20.93

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EOLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.80, below the 50-day MA of 13.02, and below the 200-day MA of 13.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EOLS.

Evolus Risk Analysis

Evolus disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evolus reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Evolus Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (48)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIGA	83 Outperform	$422.91M	7.19	28.70%	10.13%	-0.86%	-13.33%
COLL	77 Outperform	$845.07M	14.23	32.62%	―	11.41%	45.89%
ORGO	59 Neutral	$475.61M	760.71	0.26%	―	11.29%	-79.52%
EOLS	51 Neutral	$598.67M	―	-913.07%	―	31.76%	24.85%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.35B	1.19	-46.26%	2.67%	19.24%	1.75%
TLRY	46 Neutral	$490.57M	―	-31.06%	―	11.22%	-108.58%
AVDL	42 Neutral	$742.11M	―	-60.44%	―	504.79%	74.24%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

EOLS

Evolus

9.54

-2.35

-19.76%

AVDL

Avadel Pharmaceuticals

7.68

-9.32

-54.82%

SIGA

SIGA Technologies

5.96

-2.92

-32.88%

COLL

Collegium Pharmaceutical

26.30

-8.84

-25.16%

ORGO

Organogenesis Holdings

4.26

1.50

54.35%

TLRY

Tilray

0.49

-1.29

-72.47%

Evolus Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 4, 2025 | % Change Since: -33.52% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Evolus demonstrated strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and profitability achieved ahead of schedule, along with successful product approvals and market expansion. However, there are concerns regarding market conditions and managing cash flow in Q1 2025.

Highlights

Achieving Profitability

Evolus achieved meaningful profitability in Q4 2024 and delivered profitability for the full year, one year ahead of their stated goal.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth exceeded 30% for the fifth consecutive year, with 2024 total net revenues of $266.3 million, representing a 32% increase over 2023.

Expansion of Product Portfolio

FDA approval of Evolys Form and Evolys Smooth injectable gels, expanding the total addressable market in the US by 78%.

Increase in Market Share

US market share approaching 14%, with over 2,900 new accounts added in 2024.

International Growth

Expanded direct presence in Australia and Spain, with the goal of $100 million in international revenue by 2028.

Strong Cash Position

Ended Q4 2024 with $87 million in cash, reflecting strong sales growth and efficient cash collection.

Lowlights

Flat Filler Market Expectations

2025 projections include a relatively flat filler market, indicating potential challenges in achieving expected growth.

Seasonal Cash Flow Challenges

Anticipated use of cash in Q1 2025 due to seasonality of revenue and timing of bonus payments and inventory stocking.

Company Guidance

In the recent earnings call for Evolus, the company reported achieving profitability in the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing their target by one year. Notably, Evolus experienced over 30% revenue growth for the fifth consecutive year, with the U.S. market share nearing 14%. The company ended 2024 with global net revenues of $266.3 million, marking a 32% increase over 2023, and set a 2025 revenue guidance of $345 to $355 million. Evolus also expanded its customer base by adding over 2,900 new accounts, totaling more than 15,000 purchasing accounts. The launch of Evolys, approved by the FDA, is expected to increase the U.S. market by 78%, contributing 8% to 10% of total revenue in 2025. Evolus aims for $700 million in revenue by 2028, supported by strong international growth, particularly in the UK, Australia, and Spain, with a target of $100 million in international revenue by 2028. The company emphasized its focus on digital strategy and consumer engagement, with Evolys Rewards surpassing 1.1 million users, a 40% increase from the previous year.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.