Dow Inc (DOW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.58B
• Dividend Yield: 9.17%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: -5.25%
• EPS Growth: -208.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 36,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 710,767,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,130,565
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,187,519
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.89
• 1Y Price Target: $27.75
• Price Target Upside: 0.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $40.16B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▼(-2.00% Downside)

The score is weighed down primarily by weak financial performance (loss-making TTM results and deeply negative free cash flow). Offsetting factors include improving technical trends and an earnings-call outlook that suggests modest near-term EBITDA improvement plus a large cost/transformation program, though execution risk, sizable one-time costs, and the dividend cut temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong liquidity

Material near-term liquidity gives Dow durable financial flexibility to fund Transform initiatives, cover severance/one-time costs, and absorb cyclical downturns without urgent asset sales. This supports execution of multi-year capex and restructuring while protecting credit optionality.

Transform to Outperform

A targeted $2B productivity-and-growth program is a structural action to reset cost base and improve margins across the enterprise. If executed, it materially raises mid-cycle profitability and competitiveness by embedding efficiencies and scaling growth initiatives over multiple years.

Operational scale in key segments

Sustained volume capability and recent asset startups demonstrate durable operational scale in high-demand, higher-value plastics. This structural manufacturing strength supports long-term customer contracts, pricing leverage in upcycles, and faster recovery when end markets normalize.

Negative Factors

Weak profitability and cash flow

Persistent operating losses and deeply negative free cash flow constrain Dow's ability to self-fund investments, dividends, and deleveraging. Over months this limits strategic optionality, forces reliance on liquidity facilities or asset proceeds, and raises sensitivity to cyclical troughs.

Large restructuring costs & execution risk

Substantial one-time cash outlays and wide workforce reductions carry execution, timing, and integration risks. Failure to realize planned savings or disruption to operations would leave lower near-term cash and erode productivity gains, undermining the intended multi-year margin recovery.

Exposure to low-margin exports

High exposure to low-margin export channels structurally depresses segment spreads and makes results sensitive to global trade dynamics. Over several months this limits pricing power, compresses overall margins, and reduces resilience versus competitors with more advantaged regional footprints.

Dow Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dow Inc. provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, and propylene and aromatics products; and polyethylene, polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubbers. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers ethylene oxides, propylene oxides, propylene glycol and polyether polyols, aromatic isocyanates and polyurethane systems, coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. This segment also provides caustic soda, and ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers; and cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions. The Performance Materials and Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings that are used in maintenance and protective industries, wood, metal packaging, traffic markings, thermal paper, and leather; performance silicones and specialty materials; and silicone feedstocks and intermediates. It also engages in property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

How the Company Makes Money

Dow generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse range of chemical and material products. The company operates with a revenue model based on manufacturing and distributing high-performance materials across multiple sectors. Key revenue streams include the production of polyethylene and polypropylene in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, which serves the booming packaging industry. Additionally, the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment contributes significantly through the sale of chemicals and materials used in construction and automotive applications. Dow also benefits from long-term supply agreements and strategic partnerships with major companies across various industries, enhancing its market reach and stability. Factors contributing to its earnings include global demand for sustainable products, efficient manufacturing processes, and a strong focus on R&D for innovative solutions.

Dow Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Results are under heavy cyclical pressure: TTM profitability swung to operating and net losses (weak Income Statement score), and free cash flow is deeply negative (weak Cash Flow score). The balance sheet is comparatively supportive with manageable leverage, but earnings and cash-flow volatility are the primary risk.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully into TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue slipped ~2% and the company posted an operating loss and a sizable net loss, with margins turning negative. This is a sharp reversal from 2024’s modest profitability and well below the stronger 2021–2022 cycle (when revenue and margins were materially higher). Strengths include evidence the business can generate solid earnings in upcycles, but the current downcycle pressure on pricing/spreads is weighing heavily on results and visibility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable on the latest snapshot, with low debt relative to equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), suggesting balance-sheet flexibility. However, equity returns are currently negative due to the TTM loss, and historically leverage has at times been closer to (or above) equity (e.g., 2020–2024), implying the capital structure can be more burdened depending on the period. Overall, the balance sheet appears supportive, but earnings volatility is the key risk to credit and equity strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened versus prior years: operating cash flow in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is positive but well below 2021–2023 levels, and free cash flow is deeply negative, indicating heavy cash outflows (likely from capex and/or working-capital pressure). While free cash flow improved versus 2024 (less negative), it remains a clear weak point and is not currently funding shareholder returns or deleveraging from internal cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	39.97B	42.96B	44.62B	56.90B	54.97B
Gross Profit	2.40B	4.46B	4.97B	7.86B	10.39B
EBITDA	1.19B	5.25B	4.00B	9.50B	11.68B
Net Income	-2.62B	1.12B	589.00M	4.58B	6.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.54B	57.31B	57.97B	60.60B	62.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.82B	2.57B	2.99B	3.89B	2.99B
Total Debt	20.70B	17.64B	16.45B	16.71B	16.14B
Total Liabilities	41.02B	39.46B	38.86B	39.36B	44.25B
Stockholders Equity	16.01B	17.36B	18.61B	20.72B	18.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.45B	-151.00M	2.72B	5.42B	4.68B
Operating Cash Flow	1.03B	2.91B	5.20B	7.47B	7.01B
Investing Cash Flow	817.00M	-2.37B	-2.93B	-2.97B	-2.91B
Financing Cash Flow	-435.00M	-1.17B	-3.12B	-3.36B	-6.07B

Dow Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 27.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.93, above the 50-day MA of 24.62, and above the 200-day MA of 24.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DOW.

Dow Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ASIX	58 Neutral	$425.53M	8.35	6.62%	3.81%	-5.05%	35.01%
CE	57 Neutral	$4.87B	-1.57	-54.74%	0.29%	-7.34%	-382.79%
HUN	56 Neutral	$1.88B	-5.96	-10.65%	8.44%	-3.46%	-191.77%
DOW	52 Neutral	$19.58B	―	-15.78%	9.17%	-5.25%	-208.14%
TROX	49 Neutral	$960.83M	-2.96	-18.65%	8.27%	-7.81%	-334.15%
BAK	47 Neutral	$1.37B	-1.57	―	―	-10.68%	36.31%

Dow Inc Corporate Events

Dow launches major Transform to Outperform restructuring program

On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. launched its Transform to Outperform initiative, a comprehensive restructuring and efficiency program aimed at adding at least $2 billion in near-term operating EBITDA by radically simplifying its operating model, streamlining end-to-end processes, resetting its cost structure and modernizing customer service, including expanded use of AI and automation to boost growth and productivity. The plan, approved by the board on January 26, 2026, includes a global workforce reduction of about 4,500 roles and total one-time costs estimated at $1.1–1.5 billion, with $600–800 million tied to severance and additional implementation costs through 2027; management positions the move as a response to prolonged industry challenges and a way to raise the competitive benchmark, improve shareholder returns and enhance Dow’s resilience and long-term competitiveness while engaging local stakeholders in line with regional regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (DOW) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dow Inc stock, see the DOW Stock Forecast page.

Dow Announces CTO Transition and Board Director Resignation

On December 29, 2025, Dow Inc. announced that Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer A.N. Sreeram will retire effective June 30, 2026, and that he will be succeeded by long-time Dow executive Andre Argenton, who became Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer on January 1, 2026. Argenton, previously Chief Sustainability Officer and Vice President of Environment, Health & Safety, will oversee the company’s global research and development organization while continuing to lead its environment, health, safety and sustainability functions, underscoring Dow’s integration of technology and sustainability leadership at the top level. Separately, on January 2, 2026, board member Rebecca B. Liebert resigned from Dow’s Board of Directors, citing her new role as Chair of Occidental Chemical Corporation’s board following OxyChem’s acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway, and Dow stated that her departure was not related to any disagreement over the company’s operations, policies or practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (DOW) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dow Inc stock, see the DOW Stock Forecast page.