Dow Inc (DOW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.34B
• Dividend Yield: 9.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 75.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -2.08%
• EPS Growth: -76.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 36,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 706,861,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,064,430
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,702,608
• PEG Ratio: -1.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -42.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.96
• 1Y Price Target: $32.07
• Price Target Upside: 6.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

Dow Inc.'s overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its strengths and challenges. While the company benefits from strong gross margins and proactive cost management, it faces significant hurdles in revenue growth and valuation concerns. The high dividend yield offers some support, but the technical indicators suggest caution. Recent corporate events provide a positive outlook for future financial flexibility.

Positive Factors

Cash Inflows

DOW expects cash inflows of approximately $6B from various sources in 2025, supporting the dividend.

Cost Reductions

Dow is making progress on its $1B in annualized cost reductions, contributing to financial stability.

Dividend Security

The delay of the Alberta project is reducing the FCF drain, and together with the NOVA judgement the dividend now looks secure through 2026.

Negative Factors

Earnings Headwinds

Intensifying earnings headwinds more than offset a reduced dividend risk.

Macroeconomic Challenges

A slower than expected macroeconomic backdrop is anticipated as the first quarter ends.

Tariff Impact

The proposed charges on Chinese shipping vessels could represent a $240-$500m headwind for EBITDA, depending on how much of the tariffs can be offset through adjustments in shipping vessels and tradeflows.

Dow Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dow Inc. provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, and propylene and aromatics products; and polyethylene, polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubbers. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers ethylene oxides, propylene oxides, propylene glycol and polyether polyols, aromatic isocyanates and polyurethane systems, coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. This segment also provides caustic soda, and ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers; and cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions. The Performance Materials and Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings that are used in maintenance and protective industries, wood, metal packaging, traffic markings, thermal paper, and leather; performance silicones and specialty materials; and silicone feedstocks and intermediates. It also engages in property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

How the Company Makes Money

Dow Inc. generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of its diverse portfolio of chemical and material products. The company's revenue streams are largely driven by its three major operating segments: Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings. In the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, Dow supplies polymers and materials used in packaging, consumer goods, and transportation. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment focuses on providing chemicals and materials for construction, automotive, and industrial applications. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment offers products used in coatings, adhesives, and sealants. Dow also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its market reach and technological capabilities, contributing to its earnings.

Dow Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dow Inc. exhibits a mixed financial performance. The company shows strong gross and EBIT margins, yet struggles with declining revenue and net profit margins, indicating profitability pressures. The balance sheet remains stable with moderate leverage, but the equity position could be strengthened. Cash flow management shows signs of improvement, but growth is limited. The company must address revenue and profitability challenges to enhance overall financial health.

Income Statement

Dow Inc.'s income statement shows a significant fluctuation in revenue and profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 32.28%, but the net profit margin is relatively low at 1.45%. Revenue growth has been negative, declining by 5.91% from 2024 to TTM. Despite a strong EBIT margin of 26.31%, the EBITDA margin is weaker at 9.23%, indicating high depreciation and amortization expenses. Overall, while the company has strong gross margins, the declining revenue and net profit margins suggest challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Dow Inc. indicates stability with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04 and an equity ratio of 30.08% in the TTM period. The company maintains a solid return on equity (ROE) of 3.57%, which is comparatively low, reflecting pressure on profitability. Total assets are substantial, but the equity position has weakened over time. Despite high leverage, the company manages to maintain an acceptable equity ratio, highlighting a balanced approach to financing.

Cash Flow

Dow Inc.'s cash flow metrics reflect mixed performance. The TTM free cash flow has improved compared to the previous year, indicating better cash management. However, the free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to TTM is 3.64%, showing only slight improvement. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.97, suggesting efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.16, indicating some cash is being retained despite low net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
42.63B	42.96B	44.62B	56.90B	54.97B	38.54B
	Gross Profit
4.00B	4.61B	5.06B	8.56B	10.78B	5.20B
	EBIT
1.38B	1.91B	2.96B	6.87B	8.88B	3.85B
	EBITDA
4.51B	5.30B	4.00B	9.50B	11.68B	5.54B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
290.00M	1.12B	589.00M	4.58B	6.31B	1.23B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.47B	2.19B	2.99B	3.89B	2.99B	5.10B
	Total Assets
57.50B	57.31B	57.97B	60.60B	62.99B	61.47B
	Total Debt
17.92B	17.64B	16.45B	16.71B	16.14B	19.04B
	Net Debt
16.46B	15.46B	13.46B	12.82B	13.15B	13.94B
	Total Liabilities
40.20B	39.46B	38.86B	39.36B	44.25B	48.47B
	Stockholders Equity
16.79B	17.36B	18.61B	20.72B	18.16B	12.44B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-495.00M	-151.00M	2.72B	5.42B	4.68B	4.84B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.54B	2.91B	5.20B	7.47B	7.01B	6.23B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.50B	-2.37B	-2.93B	-2.97B	-2.91B	-841.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.25B	-1.17B	-3.12B	-3.36B	-6.07B	-2.76B

Dow Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 30.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.85, below the 50-day MA of 31.70, and below the 200-day MA of 41.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DOW.

Dow Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLKP	72 Outperform	$801.32M	15.26	10.22%	8.29%	-6.76%	-3.19%
DOW	61 Neutral	$21.34B	75.46	1.60%	9.27%	-2.08%	-76.11%
CE	56 Neutral	$5.86B	6.84	-26.94%	2.73%	-5.98%	-183.27%
HUN	54 Neutral	$2.16B	―	-4.46%	7.90%	0.02%	-43.65%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$1.98B	-1.08	-21.29%	3.61%	1.96%	-30.59%
TROX	48 Neutral	$839.85M	―	-8.44%	9.22%	4.15%	57.25%
BAK	41 Neutral	$1.49B	―	-8638.28%	―	0.81%	-34.74%

Dow Inc Corporate Events

Dow Inc Sells 40% Stake in Diamond Infrastructure

On May 1, 2025, Dow Inc. completed the sale of a 40% equity stake in Diamond Infrastructure Solutions to a fund managed by Macquarie Asset Management. This strategic partnership, which could increase Macquarie’s stake to 49%, is expected to generate up to $3 billion in proceeds for Dow, supporting its capital allocation strategy. The transaction is part of Dow’s efforts to unlock value from non-core assets and improve its balance sheet, while maintaining control over Diamond to ensure operational safety and reliability in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Spark’s Take on DOW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, DOW is a Neutral.

Dow Inc.’s overall stock score reflects its operational efficiency and stable financial position, counterbalanced by challenges in revenue growth and bearish market sentiment. The attractive dividend yield provides some support, but the high P/E ratio signals potential overvaluation. Strategic initiatives may bolster future performance, though current market conditions and cautious guidance advise prudence.

To see Spark’s full report on DOW stock, click here.

Dow Inc Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting and Elections

On April 10, 2025, Dow Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where all thirteen director nominees were elected with a high approval rate of 93-98%. Stockholders also approved executive compensation and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. Additionally, the Board declared a quarterly dividend of 70 cents per share and re-elected Richard K. Davis as the independent lead director, highlighting the company’s strong governance and commitment to shareholder value.

Spark’s Take on DOW Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, DOW is a Neutral.

Dow Inc.’s stock score reflects its strong operational efficiency and a stable financial position, but is weighed down by challenges in revenue growth and market sentiment. Valuation appears attractive due to a high dividend yield, although technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. The strategic initiatives from the earnings call could bolster future performance, yet current market conditions and guidance imply caution.

To see Spark’s full report on DOW stock, click here.

Dow Inc Announces $1 Billion Debt Tender Offer

On February 25, 2025, The Dow Chemical Company announced a cash tender offer to purchase up to $1 billion of certain debt securities from itself and its subsidiaries, Rohm and Haas Company and Union Carbide Corporation. This move is part of Dow’s strategy to manage its debt portfolio, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and market positioning. The tender offer is subject to a financing condition and will expire on March 25, 2025, with the possibility of early settlement for securities tendered by March 10, 2025.