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Dow Inc
(NYSE:DOW)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(3.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—losses and compressed margins combined with elevated leverage—despite improved operating cash flow. Technicals are mixed with negative MACD and only partial trend confirmation. Offsetting factors include a high dividend yield and an earnings call that highlighted strong Q2 EBITDA, sizable liquidity, and expanding cost/self-help actions, though near-term guidance points to a sequential EBITDA decline from margin pressure.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Cash generation recovered materially versus 2025, with operating cash flow around $4.6B and positive free cash flow TTM. This sustained cash flow, despite a net loss, provides durable funding for capex, self-help investments, deleveraging and liquidity coverage through cycles, improving resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated and rising leverage
Leverage has increased materially versus 2021–2024, with total debt near $21B and a debt-to-equity around 1.12. Higher leverage constrains strategic flexibility, raises interest and covenant exposure, and heightens risk if cyclical weakness persists or if cash flow reverts toward historical volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Cash generation recovered materially versus 2025, with operating cash flow around $4.6B and positive free cash flow TTM. This sustained cash flow, despite a net loss, provides durable funding for capex, self-help investments, deleveraging and liquidity coverage through cycles, improving resilience.
Read all positive factors
Dow Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
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The Fly
The FlyDow Inc (DOW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.00B
Dividend Yield4.65%
Average Volume (3M)11.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-1.20%
EPS Growth-30.03%
CountryUS
Employees34,600
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.81
Shares Outstanding722,340,700
10 Day Avg. Volume10,134,323
30 Day Avg. Volume11,719,799
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio-11.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.91Price Target Upside16.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.72B
Dow Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dow Inc. is a global leader in materials science, delivering diverse solutions for key industries such as packaging, infrastructure development, mobility, and consumer products. The company's reach extends across numerous regions, including the Un...
How the Company Makes Money
Dow primarily makes money by producing large-scale chemical and polymer materials and selling them to business customers under supply agreements and spot/market-based transactions. Revenue is generated mainly from (1) Performance Materials & Coati...
Dow Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights solid top-line growth, robust Q2 EBITDA ($2.3B), strong pricing in key businesses (P&SP), meaningful progress and upsizing of self-help programs, improved liquidity and active portfolio optimization (cracker restart, Barry shutdown). Offsetting these positives are a lower Q3 EBITDA guide ($1.7B) due to expected margin compression and seasonality, regional volume softness and near-term headwinds from maintenance, SG&A timing effects and geopolitical volatility. Overall, the company presented multiple durable operational and financial fixes that improve competitiveness and cash flow potential, while acknowledging near-term cyclical and structural risks.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and EBITDA Performance
Net sales of $12.1 billion in Q2, up 20% year-over-year, and operating EBITDA of $2.3 billion, reflecting meaningful earnings growth and margin expansion versus the prior year.
Negative Updates
Sequential Earnings Guidance Decline for Q3
Third-quarter EBITDA guidance approximately $1.7 billion, a sequential decline from Q2, reflecting anticipated margin compression from North American polyethylene price settlement and typical seasonal patterns following high Q2 demand.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and EBITDA Performance
Net sales of $12.1 billion in Q2, up 20% year-over-year, and operating EBITDA of $2.3 billion, reflecting meaningful earnings growth and margin expansion versus the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dow guided third-quarter operating EBITDA of approximately $1.7 billion, assuming about a $0.10/lb decline in global integrated polyethylene margins (which incorporates the $0.15/lb June North America settlement) and no further quarterly price moves; the Q3 outlook factors in roughly $130 million of sequential tailwinds from self‑help (including Transform to Outperform and initial benefit from the Barry siloxanes shutdown) while reflecting planned maintenance, seasonal demand patterns and the non‑repeating Q2 land‑sale. Management reiterated numerous metrics behind the guide: >$300 million of self‑help delivered in Q2; completion of the $1.0 billion 2025 cost‑savings program; an expected >$1.3 billion of self‑help this year (up $200 million from prior target) with Transform to Outperform upsized to ~$700 million in 2026 and a ~$2.0 billion opportunity by the end of next year; a $60 million H2 EBITDA uplift from the Barry shutdown; ~55% of role reductions implemented (driving >$200 million H2 EBITDA) and ~$50 million H2 from six site playbooks; ~ $14 billion available liquidity; a minimum >$500 million working‑capital release in H2; ~$1.3 billion litigation receipts (~$1.0B Q1, ~$300M early Q3); no substantive debt maturities until 2029 and a revolver to 2031; and expected operating rates above 90% in Q3.Dow Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 41.32B | 39.97B | 42.96B | 44.62B | 56.90B | 54.97B |
| Gross Profit | 4.04B | 2.40B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 7.86B | 10.39B |
| EBITDA | 2.30B | 1.19B | 5.25B | 4.00B | 9.50B | 11.68B |
| Net Income | -1.21B | -2.62B | 1.12B | 589.00M | 4.58B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.59B | 58.54B | 57.31B | 57.97B | 60.60B | 62.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.97B | 3.82B | 2.57B | 2.99B | 3.89B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 20.86B | 19.60B | 17.64B | 16.45B | 16.71B | 16.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.56B | 41.02B | 39.46B | 38.86B | 39.36B | 44.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.42B | 16.01B | 17.36B | 18.61B | 20.72B | 18.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 436.00M | -1.45B | -151.00M | 2.72B | 5.42B | 5.51B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.61B | 1.03B | 2.91B | 5.20B | 7.47B | 7.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.53B | 817.00M | -2.37B | -2.93B | -2.97B | -2.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.79B | -435.00M | -1.17B | -3.12B | -3.36B | -6.07B |
Dow Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
29.84
Price Trends
31.54
Negative
34.85
Negative
30.03
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.36
Negative
45.77
Neutral
51.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.54, below the 50-day MA of 31.54, and below the 200-day MA of 30.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DOW.
Dow Inc Risk Analysis
Dow Inc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dow Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dow Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
53 Neutral | $22.00B | -15.98 | -6.58% | 4.69% | -1.20% | -30.03% | |
52 Neutral | $2.10B | -6.08 | -11.76% | 4.00% | -4.74% | -149.27% | |
51 Neutral | $4.82B | -4.35 | -25.26% | 0.26% | -5.63% | 34.29% | |
51 Neutral | $542.42M | 52.38 | 1.28% | 3.04% | -0.63% | -87.72% | |
45 Neutral | $966.72M | -2.11 | -31.25% | 3.21% | -4.02% | -206.93% | |
42 Neutral | $829.52M | -0.69 | 142.56% | ― | -13.10% | -0.68% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
DOW
Dow Inc
30.09
9.38
45.32%
CE
Celanese
44.81
-3.62
-7.48%
BAK
Braskem SA
2.41
-0.63
-20.72%
HUN
Huntsman
12.07
3.26
36.94%
TROX
TRONOX
6.26
3.01
92.38%
ASIX
AdvanSix
20.60
1.94
10.41%
Dow Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Dow Inc registers shares tied to stock incentive plan
Neutral
Jul 10, 2026
On July 10, 2026, Dow Inc. moved to register 5,410,000 shares of its common stock under an existing shelf registration statement on Form S-3 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The shares are tied to awards granted under the Dow Inc....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.