Dow Inc (DOW)
NYSE:DOW
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Dow Inc
(NYSE:DOW)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(6.92% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses and deeply negative free cash flow), partially offset by a supportive balance sheet and strong technical momentum. The earnings call adds modest support due to liquidity and a defined EBITDA improvement program, but is tempered by the dividend cut, large one-time restructuring costs, and execution risk from the delayed Path to Zero plan.
Positive Factors
Liquidity & balance-sheet flexibility
Substantial liquidity and a manageable leverage profile provide durable financial flexibility. With >$3.8B cash and ~ $14B available liquidity, Dow can fund near-term Transform investments, absorb cyclical earnings volatility, maintain operations during downturns and avoid forced asset sales while pursuing deleveraging.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability & free cash flow
Trailing profitability weakness and deeply negative free cash flow constrain the company's ability to self-fund growth, pay dividends or materially de-lever without relying on liquidity or asset actions. Sustained margin pressure could prolong negative returns and limit strategic optionality over several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Liquidity & balance-sheet flexibility
Substantial liquidity and a manageable leverage profile provide durable financial flexibility. With >$3.8B cash and ~ $14B available liquidity, Dow can fund near-term Transform investments, absorb cyclical earnings volatility, maintain operations during downturns and avoid forced asset sales while pursuing deleveraging.
Read all positive factors
Dow Inc (DOW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.18B
Dividend Yield9.17%
Average Volume (3M)15.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-5.25%
EPS Growth-208.14%
CountryUS
Employees36,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.34
Shares Outstanding717,534,060
10 Day Avg. Volume13,505,247
30 Day Avg. Volume14,995,073
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio-11.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda36.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.07Price Target Upside-3.08% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$41.11B
Dow Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dow Inc. provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through...
How the Company Makes Money
Dow makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling chemical and polymer products to industrial and consumer-facing end markets. Its revenue model is largely volume-and-price driven: it earns sales revenue from the shipment of products across i...
Dow Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDow Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive strategic and financial response to a challenging macro and industry environment. Highlights include solid liquidity, meaningful realized cost savings, a large new Transform to Outperform program targeting at least $2 billion of near-term EBITDA uplift, operational milestones (Poly 7 startup, ethylene production record), and modestly improving near-term EBITDA guidance (~$750 million for Q1). Key negatives include continued top-line and margin pressure in several segments (notably II&I), a 50% dividend cut, planned workforce reductions (4,500 roles) with material one-time severance costs, and a two-year delay to the Path to Zero project that lowers near-term returns. Overall, management emphasizes preserving financial flexibility, executing cost and cash actions, and pursuing structural transformation to position Dow for a recovery.Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter and Near-Term EBITDA
Fourth-quarter operating EBITDA of $741 million; first-quarter 2026 EBITDA guidance ~ $750 million, representing a modest sequential improvement driven by expected margin expansion and seasonal uplift.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Margin Pressure in II&I
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure Q4 net sales $2.7 billion, down 9% year-over-year; volumes down 1% YoY; operating EBIT decreased $285 million YoY and $154 million sequentially, driven by lower integrated margins and weak industrial demand (building & construction weakness).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fourth Quarter and Near-Term EBITDA
Fourth-quarter operating EBITDA of $741 million; first-quarter 2026 EBITDA guidance ~ $750 million, representing a modest sequential improvement driven by expected margin expansion and seasonal uplift.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided first-quarter operating EBITDA of approximately $750 million (up modestly from Q4 operating EBITDA of $741 million), citing anticipated margin expansion and seasonal uplift but noting offsets from higher planned turnaround spending and lower equity earnings (including ~ $75 million headwind from Kuwait JV/licensing and ~ $125 million headwind from a Louisiana cracker outage). Segment-level guidance included a ~$10 million cost-savings tailwind and ~$15 million planned-maintenance headwind for Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure and roughly $80 million of sequential tailwinds for Performance Materials & Coatings. Looking to 2026, Dow reiterated it will deliver the remaining >$500 million of a $1 billion cost program and expects Transform to Outperform to provide at least $2 billion of near‑term EBITDA improvement (two‑thirds productivity, one‑third growth) with ~ $500 million of value expected this year, one‑time implementation costs of $1.1–1.5 billion (including $600–800 million of severance) and a workforce reduction of ~4,500 roles. The company also highlighted >$3 billion of near‑term earnings uplift potential before Path to Zero phase one start, cash & equivalents > $3.8 billion, ~ $14 billion of available liquidity, 2026 CapEx targeted around $2.5 billion (at or below D&A until mid‑cycle), and a revised Path to Zero timeline moving phase one startup to late‑2029 with ~30% of project CapEx spent and expected returns of at least 8–10% (plus 100–200 bps potential upside from low‑carbon premiums).Dow Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 39.97B | 42.96B | 44.62B | 56.90B | 54.97B |
| Gross Profit | 2.40B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 7.86B | 10.39B |
| EBITDA | 1.19B | 5.25B | 4.00B | 9.50B | 11.68B |
| Net Income | -2.62B | 1.12B | 589.00M | 4.58B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 58.54B | 57.31B | 57.97B | 60.60B | 62.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.82B | 2.57B | 2.99B | 3.89B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 19.60B | 17.64B | 16.45B | 16.71B | 16.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.02B | 39.46B | 38.86B | 39.36B | 44.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.01B | 17.36B | 18.61B | 20.72B | 18.16B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.45B | -151.00M | 2.72B | 5.42B | 4.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 2.91B | 5.20B | 7.47B | 7.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 817.00M | -2.37B | -2.93B | -2.97B | -2.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -435.00M | -1.17B | -3.12B | -3.36B | -6.07B |
Dow Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
39.28
Price Trends
34.03
Positive
28.97
Positive
26.29
Positive
Market Momentum
2.13
Positive
57.03
Neutral
62.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.72, above the 50-day MA of 34.03, and above the 200-day MA of 26.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DOW.
Dow Inc Risk Analysis
Dow Inc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dow Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dow Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $656.51M | 9.44 | 6.06% | 3.81% | -5.05% | 35.01% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $2.36B | -6.29 | -10.06% | 8.44% | -3.46% | -191.77% | |
58 Neutral | $7.14B | -3.97 | -25.13% | 0.29% | -7.34% | -382.79% | |
56 Neutral | $28.18B | -6.34 | -15.53% | 9.17% | -5.25% | -208.14% | |
53 Neutral | $1.45B | -1.41 | -29.85% | 8.27% | -7.81% | -334.15% | |
43 Neutral | $1.30B | -0.66 | 142.56% | ― | -10.68% | 36.31% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
DOW
Dow Inc
39.28
11.31
40.45%
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Dow Inc Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dow Inc Files Exhibit via Separate Form 8-K
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
For the year ended December 31, 2025, Dow Inc. and The Dow Chemical Company opted to file a required exhibit to their Annual Report on Form 10-K separately via an optional Current Report on Form 8-K, citing administrative convenience and a desire ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Dow launches major Transform to Outperform restructuring program
Negative
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. launched its Transform to Outperform initiative, a comprehensive restructuring and efficiency program aimed at adding at least $2 billion in near-term operating EBITDA by radically simplifying its operating model, str...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.