Dow (DOW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.57B
• Dividend Yield: 11.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 75.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -2.82%
• EPS Growth: -186.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 36,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Chemicals
• EPS (TTM): -0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 708,844,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,374,418
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,727,872
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.71
• 1Y Price Target: $27.53
• Price Target Upside: 17.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.50 ▼(-3.68% Downside)

The overall stock score reflects significant financial and technical challenges. Financial performance shows profitability pressures with declining revenue and net profit margins. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, further weighing down the score. The valuation is affected by a negative P/E ratio, but the high dividend yield provides some support. The earnings call underscores strategic efforts amidst a challenging environment. Corporate events provide a long-term positive outlook, but short-term impacts are limited.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Management

Dow has several one-time cash inflows that will help support the dividend even if operating cash is negative, including significant proceeds from asset sales and divestitures.

Dividend Strategy

Dow has cut its dividend to a more manageable level, strengthening its cash flow profile.

Market Sentiment

Analyst sees shares as oversold, with a 15% total return potential to the unchanged price objective.

Negative Factors

Capacity Challenges

Continued capacity additions in China for the next few years are expected to weigh on asset utilizations of many relevant DOW commodities.

Earnings Performance

DOW reported lower than expected adjusted EBITDA, which came in below both Bloomberg consensus and last year's figures.

European Market Challenges

Dow’s European asset base is arguably permanently impaired given higher costs and slower demand.

Dow Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dow Inc. is a global leader in materials science, delivering a broad range of innovative solutions in various sectors, including packaging, infrastructure, and consumer care. The company operates through three primary segments: Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings. Dow's core products include polyethylene, polyurethanes, and specialty chemicals, which are essential in manufacturing various consumer and industrial goods, thus positioning it as a key player in the chemical industry.

How the Company Makes Money

Dow Inc. generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of a diverse array of chemical products and materials. Its key revenue streams come from the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, which provides high-demand products like films and resins for the packaging industry; the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment, which supplies chemicals used in construction and automotive applications; and the Performance Materials & Coatings segment, which offers advanced materials for various applications. The company benefits from significant partnerships with other industry leaders, allowing it to expand its market reach and enhance product offerings. Additionally, fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand for its products significantly influence its earnings, as does the company's focus on innovation and sustainability initiatives to meet evolving market needs.

Dow Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dow Inc. exhibits mixed financial performance with strong gross and EBIT margins but struggles with declining revenue and net profit margins, indicating profitability pressures. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, but the equity position could be improved. Cash flow management shows signs of improvement, but growth is limited.

Income Statement

Dow Inc.'s income statement shows a significant fluctuation in revenue and profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 32.28%, but the net profit margin is relatively low at 1.45%. Revenue growth has been negative, declining by 5.91% from 2024 to TTM. Despite a strong EBIT margin of 26.31%, the EBITDA margin is weaker at 9.23%, indicating high depreciation and amortization expenses. Overall, while the company has strong gross margins, the declining revenue and net profit margins suggest challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Dow Inc. indicates stability with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04 and an equity ratio of 30.08% in the TTM period. The company maintains a solid return on equity (ROE) of 3.57%, which is comparatively low, reflecting pressure on profitability. Total assets are substantial, but the equity position has weakened over time. Despite high leverage, the company manages to maintain an acceptable equity ratio, highlighting a balanced approach to financing.

Cash Flow

Dow Inc.'s cash flow metrics reflect mixed performance. The TTM free cash flow has improved compared to the previous year, indicating better cash management. However, the free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to TTM is 3.64%, showing only slight improvement. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.97, suggesting efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.16, indicating some cash is being retained despite low net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	41.82B	42.96B	44.62B	56.90B	54.97B	38.54B
Gross Profit	3.20B	4.61B	5.06B	8.56B	10.78B	5.20B
EBITDA	3.02B	5.30B	4.00B	9.50B	11.68B	5.54B
Net Income	-947.00M	1.12B	589.00M	4.58B	6.31B	1.23B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.99B	57.31B	57.97B	60.60B	62.99B	61.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.40B	2.19B	2.99B	3.89B	2.99B	5.10B
Total Debt	18.10B	17.64B	16.45B	16.71B	16.14B	19.04B
Total Liabilities	40.40B	39.46B	38.86B	39.36B	44.25B	48.47B
Stockholders Equity	17.23B	17.36B	18.61B	20.72B	18.16B	12.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-608.00M	-151.00M	2.72B	5.42B	4.68B	4.84B
Operating Cash Flow	1.71B	2.91B	5.20B	7.47B	7.01B	6.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.00B	-2.37B	-2.93B	-2.97B	-2.91B	-841.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.56B	-1.17B	-3.12B	-3.36B	-6.07B	-2.76B

Dow Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.96, below the 50-day MA of 26.74, and below the 200-day MA of 33.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DOW.

Dow Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLKP	70 Outperform	$772.78M	14.68	10.28%	8.57%	-7.24%	-7.30%
DOW	54 Neutral	$16.57B	75.91	-5.59%	11.99%	-2.82%	-186.41%
HUN	50 Neutral	$1.77B	―	-10.43%	9.82%	-1.56%	-259.58%
CE	45 Neutral	$4.67B	6.84	-25.69%	1.86%	-5.83%	-183.85%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.54B	-7.28	-22.62%	4.37%	-3.13%	-36.41%
BAK	42 Neutral	$1.22B	―	-8638.28%	―	-3.33%	44.37%
TROX	40 Underperform	$596.05M	―	-14.11%	11.87%	0.20%	-292.54%

Dow Corporate Events

Dow Inc Restructures European Operations Amid Market Challenges

On June 30, 2025, Dow Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a series of restructuring actions aimed at optimizing the company’s global asset footprint, particularly focusing on its European operations. These actions, which include the shutdown of three upstream assets in Europe, are part of a strategic review to enhance competitiveness and profitability amid challenging market dynamics. The restructuring will result in charges ranging from $630 million to $790 million and is expected to improve operating EBITDA starting in 2026, with full benefits realized by 2029. Approximately 800 roles will be affected, and the company plans to engage local stakeholders in compliance with relevant processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (DOW) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dow Inc stock, see the DOW Stock Forecast page.

Dow Inc Wins CAD $1.62 Billion Court Ruling

On June 11, 2025, Dow Inc. announced that the Court of King’s Bench of Alberta, Canada, ordered NOVA Chemicals Corporation to pay CAD $1.620 billion (approximately USD $1.2 billion) to Dow subsidiaries for damages related to their jointly-owned ethylene asset in Joffre, Alberta. This judgment, which is subject to appeal, is in addition to a previous CAD $1.43 billion payment made by NOVA to Dow in 2019, following a 2018 decision that found NOVA had breached contractual obligations by not operating the asset at full capacity since 2001.

The most recent analyst rating on (DOW) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dow Inc stock, see the DOW Stock Forecast page.