Dow Inc. (DOW)
NYSE:DOW
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Dow Inc
(NYSE:DOW)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(9.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/26/26
The score is held down primarily by weak current financial performance—losses and negative free cash flow—despite a workable balance sheet. Technicals are moderately supportive and the dividend yield is attractive, while earnings-call guidance points to a potential near-term EBITDA rebound driven by pricing and cost actions but with elevated uncertainty from disruptions and input-cost pressure.
Positive Factors
Advantaged asset footprint & feedstock flexibility
Dow's scale and regional feedstock flexibility create a durable cost and supply advantage. High utilization and new Poly7 capacity support export opportunities and allow the company to capture margin when prices inflect, providing structural resilience and long-term pricing power across cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and reduced balance-sheet flexibility
Debt/equity around 1.29 raises cyclical vulnerability: higher leverage reduces the firm's ability to absorb earnings shocks, limits discretionary capital allocation, and constrains flexibility to invest or accelerate buybacks as earnings recover, especially in a capital-intensive industry.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Advantaged asset footprint & feedstock flexibility
Dow's scale and regional feedstock flexibility create a durable cost and supply advantage. High utilization and new Poly7 capacity support export opportunities and allow the company to capture margin when prices inflect, providing structural resilience and long-term pricing power across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Dow Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDow Inc (DOW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.88B
Dividend Yield9.17%
Average Volume (3M)12.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-7.74%
EPS Growth-1093.11%
CountryUS
Employees36,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.99
Shares Outstanding720,741,460
10 Day Avg. Volume10,275,388
30 Day Avg. Volume12,336,371
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio-11.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.50Price Target Upside16.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)2.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.92B
Dow Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dow Inc. provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through...
How the Company Makes Money
Dow makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling chemical and polymer products to industrial and consumer-facing end markets. Its revenue model is largely volume-and-price driven: it earns sales revenue from the shipment of products across i...
Dow Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced significant near-term challenges stemming from unprecedented Middle East-related supply disruptions and higher input costs with clear signs of operational resilience and multiple offsetting actions. Management reported solid Q1 financials (3% sequential volume growth, $9.8B sales, $873M EBITDA), meaningful in-quarter cost savings (~$193M), strong liquidity (~$14B), and a confident Q2 guide (~$12B revenue, ~$2B EBITDA) driven by accelerating polyethylene pricing and self-help initiatives (Transform to Outperform and cost programs). Key negatives include substantial global supply and logistics impacts (roughly half of ethylene/PE supply affected), an 8% decline in I&I sales, and Sadara-related equity losses and ongoing cash commitments. Overall, management framed the outlook as poised for upside, with pricing and asset advantages likely to drive margin recovery over coming quarters despite material uncertainty.Positive Updates
Solid First-Quarter Financials
Net sales of $9.8 billion and operating EBITDA of $873 million in Q1 FY2026; 3% sequential volume growth; approximately $193 million of period cost savings delivered in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Material Supply Disruption from Middle East Conflict
Management estimated roughly 20% of global oil capacity offline and approximately half of global ethylene and polyethylene supply either offline, constrained, or impacted; transit through Strait of Hormuz significantly impaired, creating prolonged logistics constraints and uncertainty (management cites a recovery window of roughly 6 to 18 months).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid First-Quarter Financials
Net sales of $9.8 billion and operating EBITDA of $873 million in Q1 FY2026; 3% sequential volume growth; approximately $193 million of period cost savings delivered in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dow guided second-quarter revenue of about $12 billion and EBITDA of roughly $2 billion, a sequential improvement from Q1 (Q1 net sales $9.8 billion, operating EBITDA $873 million, and 3% sequential volume growth) driven by pricing gains, expanding margins, higher asset utilization, seasonal demand and cost reductions that more than offset higher feedstock/energy and planned maintenance; the Q2 guide includes about $0.26 per pound of integrated margin improvement (April price action of $0.30/lb is included, May’s $0.20/lb is not and would be upside). Management reiterated near-term self-help targets—Transform to Outperform is expected to deliver at least $2 billion of near-term EBITDA improvement (≈2/3 productivity, 1/3 growth), $1.1 billion of in‑year savings ($600M remaining from 2025 program plus $500M from Transform), a $400M H2 ramp, and other specifics such as a first‑site $80M run‑rate gain—while highlighting strong liquidity (~$14 billion total liquidity, >$4 billion cash on hand), no substantive maturities until 2029, and a >$300 million Y/Y working‑capital improvement in Q1.Dow Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.33B | 39.97B | 42.96B | 44.62B | 56.90B | 54.97B |
| Gross Profit | 2.42B | 2.40B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 7.86B | 10.39B |
| EBITDA | 840.00M | 1.19B | 5.25B | 4.00B | 9.50B | 11.68B |
| Net Income | -2.76B | -2.62B | 1.12B | 589.00M | 4.58B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 59.78B | 58.54B | 57.31B | 57.97B | 60.60B | 62.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.11B | 3.82B | 2.57B | 2.99B | 3.89B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 19.63B | 19.60B | 17.64B | 16.45B | 16.71B | 16.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.02B | 41.02B | 39.46B | 38.86B | 39.36B | 44.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.25B | 16.01B | 17.36B | 18.61B | 20.72B | 18.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.40B | -1.45B | -151.00M | 2.72B | 5.42B | 4.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.81B | 1.03B | 2.91B | 5.20B | 7.47B | 7.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.12B | 817.00M | -2.37B | -2.93B | -2.97B | -2.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.14B | -435.00M | -1.17B | -3.12B | -3.36B | -6.07B |
Dow Inc Technical Analysis
Neutral
35.60
Price Trends
38.68
Negative
34.03
Positive
28.33
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Positive
39.27
Neutral
8.53
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.48, below the 50-day MA of 38.68, and above the 200-day MA of 28.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DOW.
Dow Inc Risk Analysis
Dow Inc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dow Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dow Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $2.52B | -10.86 | -11.76% | 8.44% | -4.74% | -149.27% | |
55 Neutral | $588.52M | ― | 1.28% | 3.81% | -0.63% | -87.72% | |
52 Neutral | $25.88B | -16.88 | -16.73% | 9.17% | -7.74% | -1093.11% | |
52 Neutral | $5.80B | 40.99 | -25.26% | 0.29% | -5.63% | 34.29% | |
49 Neutral | $1.60B | 1.31 | 142.56% | ― | -13.10% | -0.68% | |
47 Neutral | $1.23B | -3.77 | -31.25% | 8.27% | -4.02% | -206.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
DOW
Dow Inc
36.01
9.49
35.76%
CE
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52.39
<0.01
0.02%
BAK
Braskem SA
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HUN
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14.51
3.78
35.24%
TROX
TRONOX
7.55
3.01
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ASIX
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22.26
-0.15
-0.67%
Dow Inc Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
Dow Names Karen S. Carter as New CEO
Positive
Apr 14, 2026
Dow Inc. announced that its board appointed longtime executive Karen S. Carter as chief executive officer effective July 1, 2026, succeeding Jim Fitterling, who will transition to executive chair and remain on the board until at least the 2027 ann...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Dow Inc Files Exhibit via Separate Form 8-K
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
For the year ended December 31, 2025, Dow Inc. and The Dow Chemical Company opted to file a required exhibit to their Annual Report on Form 10-K separately via an optional Current Report on Form 8-K, citing administrative convenience and a desire ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Dow launches major Transform to Outperform restructuring program
Negative
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. launched its Transform to Outperform initiative, a comprehensive restructuring and efficiency program aimed at adding at least $2 billion in near-term operating EBITDA by radically simplifying its operating model, str...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.