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Orsted A/S (DNNGY)
OTHER OTC:DNNGY
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Orsted
(OTC:DNNGY)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(3.70% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/09/26
The score is held down mainly by weak and unstable fundamentals (multi-year revenue declines, rising leverage, and persistently negative free cash flow) and a high P/E. These are partially offset by moderately positive technical momentum and an earnings call that pointed to improving financial stabilization and EBITDA growth, albeit with notable regulatory/legal and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Global offshore-wind leadership
Ørsted's position as a global offshore-wind leader indicates durable competitive advantage: deep project expertise, scale in development/operations, and established relationships that support winning large tenders and long-term PPAs. Scale and experience lower execution risk and sustain returns over multi-year project cycles.
Divestment program exceeded target
Exceeding divestment targets and completing a rights issue materially strengthens capital flexibility and reduces refinancing risk. Realized proceeds support deleveraging and fund committed growth capex, improving ability to execute large offshore projects without relying solely on external debt markets over the next 2–3 years.
Improved liquidity and credit metrics
Substantial quarter-on-quarter net-debt reduction and a strong FFO/adjusted net debt ratio provide lasting financial headroom. Better credit metrics lower funding costs and increase optionality for project finance, supporting the committed DKK 145bn program while reducing near-term refinancing exposure.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Chronic negative free cash flow means ongoing reliance on external funding (divestments/rights issues or debt) to cover capex and growth. If negative FCF persists, it elevates refinancing and funding risk during downturns and constrains capacity to self-fund new projects or absorb cost overruns over the medium term.
Rising leverage and weak returns
Higher leverage combined with low or negative ROE reduces financial resilience: more earnings must go to servicing debt, limiting reinvestment. Elevated debt ratios increase sensitivity to interest or project cost shocks and make planned capex programs more dependent on continued asset sales or equity raises.
Regulatory, legal and impairment risks
Project suspensions, litigation and material impairments are structural execution and political risks that can delay cash generation and raise project costs. Repeated regulatory/legal interruptions can impair ability to monetize U.S. tax incentives, hinder project financing, and increase the likelihood of further write‑downs.
Orsted (DNNGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.23B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)13.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.60
Revenue Growth19.16%
EPS Growth-147.89%
CountryUS
Employees8,251
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding3,963,989,500
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume13,579
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio-3.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-83.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.47Price Target Upside40.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.66B
Orsted Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionØrsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, develops, constructs, owns, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, energy storage facilities, and bioenergy plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Markets & Bioenergy segments. The Offshore segment develops, constructs, owns, and operates offshore wind farms in the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United States, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. The Onshore segment develops, owns, and operates onshore wind and solar farms in the United States. The Markets & Bioenergy segment engages in the generation of heat and power from combined heat and power plants in Denmark; sells power and gas in the wholesale and B2B markets; and optimizes and hedges energy portfolio. The company was formerly known as DONG Energy A/S and changed its name to Ørsted A/S in November 2017. Ørsted A/S was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Fredericia, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyØrsted makes money primarily by developing, owning, and operating renewable energy generation assets—especially offshore wind farms—and selling the electricity they produce. A major revenue stream comes from long-term contracted sales of power (e.g., power purchase agreements and similar offtake arrangements), which provide more predictable cash flows than purely merchant electricity sales; in addition, some generation can be sold into wholesale markets where revenue varies with power prices. Ørsted also generates earnings through its development model: it develops renewable projects, builds them (often using external suppliers and contractors), and may divest minority stakes in projects or asset portfolios to institutional investors or partners, realizing proceeds and potentially retaining ongoing management roles and cash flows from the remaining ownership interest. Beyond wind, Ørsted earns revenue from other energy activities including bioenergy/thermal operations and energy customer/market activities (such as route-to-market, power trading, and related services) that support balancing, optimization, and commercialization of its generation. Key factors influencing earnings include the size and performance of its operating asset base, availability and wind resource, contract structures and prices, power price levels for merchant exposure, and the pace of new project development, construction execution, and any asset partnership or divestment transactions. Specific partnership counterparties and transaction terms are not provided here (null).
Orsted Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive progress on financial stabilization and execution: rights issue completed, divestment proceeds materially exceeded targets (~DKK 46bn vs >DKK 35bn), solid full-year EBITDA (DKK 25.1bn), improved availability (93%, +5pp), strong project milestones and robust liquidity metrics (net debt down ~DKK 64bn quarter; FFO/adjusted debt ~43%). However, material near-term challenges remain, notably US lease suspensions that caused construction pauses and impairments (totaling DKK ~6.9bn disclosed across items), a Q4 net loss, restructuring costs (~DKK 750m), legal uncertainty (Elsam case DKK 4.4bn exposure) and market headwinds (lower wind speeds in 2025, expected lower market prices and subsidy step-downs). On balance the positives around balance sheet repair, delivery progress and outlook (EBITDA >DKK 28bn guidance, commissioning >2.5 GW in 2026) outweigh the negatives, though execution and legal risks require monitoring.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strengthened Capital Structure and Exceeded Divestment Target
Completed a rights issue and delivered on the partnership/divestment program, signing transactions amounting to ~DKK 46 billion (target was >DKK 35 billion), supporting a stronger balance sheet and the target of an investment-grade rating.
Solid Full-Year EBITDA in Line with Guidance
Delivered full-year EBITDA (excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees) of DKK 25.1 billion, in line with guidance; company guides 2026 EBITDA of more than DKK 28 billion.
Improved Operational Availability
Offshore portfolio availability of 93% for the full year, an increase of 5 percentage points versus prior year, driving higher site earnings despite below-normal wind speeds.
Progress on Construction Portfolio and Major Milestones
Significant project milestones in 2025: commissioning of Gode Wind 3; first power at Borkum Riffgrund 3; turbine installation and first power at Greater Changhua 2b & 4. Degree of completion: Greater Changhua 75% (from 65%), Revolution Wind ~87% (from 85%), Sunrise Wind 45% (from 40%); Baltica 2 completion rose to 25% from 15%.
Renewables and Decarbonization Achievements
Reached target of 99% renewables in generation for 2025 (driven by prior coal CHP closure). Reduced Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity by more than 98% since 2006.
Safety Improvement
Total recordable injury rate reduced to 2.5 in 2025, reflecting improved safety performance and targeted initiatives with suppliers.
Strengthened Liquidity and Credit Metrics
Net debt at Q4'25 of DKK 19 billion, a decrease of ~DKK 64 billion during the quarter (primarily from rights issue proceeds). FFO to adjusted net debt ~43%, well above the 30% target, increasing financial headroom.
Committed Investment Program and 2026 CapEx Outlook
Committed capital of approximately DKK 145 billion for 2025-27 remains unchanged; gross investments for 2026 expected at DKK 50-55 billion. Plan to commission >2.5 GW offshore across three continents in 2026.
Negative Updates
US Lease Suspension Orders and Operational Pauses
Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind received BOEM suspension orders causing offshore construction pauses (Revolution ~3 weeks, Sunrise ~6 weeks). Litigation ensued; preliminary injunctions were later granted (Revolution Jan 12, 2026; Sunrise Feb 2, 2026) and work resumed, but pauses increased costs and schedule risk.
Impairments and Noncash Accounting Impacts
Recognized significant noncash and impairment items: a DKK 4.8 billion noncash accounting impact related to the Hornsea 3 transaction, ~DKK 600 million impairment linked to the US lease suspensions, and a DKK 1.6 billion goodwill impairment from the divestment of the European onshore business.
Negative Q4 Net Profit and ROCE Pressure
Reported a Q4 net loss of DKK 3.4 billion; adjusted ROCE for the year came in at 8.4% (decrease vs prior year) and reported ROCE at 5.4%, lower than internal expectations.
Lower Wind Speeds Reduced Earnings
2025 wind speeds were below historical averages, reducing earnings by approximately DKK 1 billion versus 2024, partially offset by higher availability and ramp-ups.
Restructuring Costs and Workforce Reductions
Recorded severance and restructuring provisions of ~DKK 750 million in 2025 (provision ~DKK 500 million plus ~DKK 200–250 million cash costs). Announced headcount reduction of ~2,000 positions by end-2027; ~500 departures already executed, and ~200 EU onshore roles to transfer with the sale.
Uncertainties on US Project Financing and Political/Legal Risks
Ongoing US regulatory and legal uncertainty could affect timing of project financing, ITC monetization and broader execution risk. Management noted remaining political/legal risk and potential for further appeals; Elsam-related litigation also poses a potential liability of DKK 4.4 billion with a midyear decision expected and possible appeals.
Accounting Complexity from Farm-Downs and Partnerships
Analysts flagged reduced financial transparency due to increased noncash EBITDA effects from partnership/farm-down structures (accounting for proceeds and working capital effects), complicating comparability with prior models.
Market Headwinds Impacting Future Site Earnings
Management expects lower market prices, decreased trading earnings and subsidy step-downs (e.g., Borkum Riffgrund 3, Gode Wind 1 & 2), which will offset some operational gains and leave site earnings broadly in line with 2025 levels despite higher generation in 2026.
Company Guidance
Ørsted guided 2026 EBITDA of more than DKK 28 billion, expects to commission over 2.5 GW of offshore wind across three continents, and plans gross investments of DKK 50–55 billion with committed capital of ~DKK 145 billion for 2025–27; it expects offshore, onshore and bioenergy earnings broadly in line with 2025 (2025 EBITDA excl. new partnerships/cancellation fees DKK 25.1 billion, offshore availability 93%, net profit DKK 3.2 billion) and reiterated a ROCE recovery target of ~11% for 2026–27 (rising to >13% in 2028–30) after 2025 adjusted ROCE of 8.4% (reported 5.4%). The company said it has secured ~DKK 46 billion of divestment proceeds (above its >DKK 35 billion target), finished Q4 with net debt of DKK 19 billion (down ~DKK 64 billion in the quarter) and FFO/adjusted net debt of ~43% (vs. a 30% target), and flagged DKK ~750 million of severance/provision charges in 2025 plus impairments/non‑cash impacts of DKK 4.8 billion (Hornsea 3), ~DKK 600 million (U.S. lease suspensions) and DKK 1.6 billion (European onshore goodwill).Orsted Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement performance is volatile with three straight years of revenue decline and uneven profitability, while the balance sheet is workable but increasingly leveraged (debt-to-equity ~1.14–1.16). Operating cash flow is positive and improving, but persistently deeply negative free cash flow elevates ongoing funding/refinancing risk.Income Statement
Results are volatile and have deteriorated from the 2021–2022 peak. Revenue has declined for three consecutive years (2023–2025), and profitability has swung sharply (large loss in 2023, near-breakeven in 2024, back to a modest profit in 2025). While EBITDA margins remain solid in 2024–2025, the 2025 gross profit turning negative and the uneven net margin trajectory highlight execution/price-cost pressure and earnings instability.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is workable but increasingly leveraged. Debt-to-equity has moved from below 1.0 in 2020–2022 to ~1.14–1.16 in 2023–2025, indicating rising reliance on debt financing. Equity has grown versus 2023, which provides some cushion, but returns on equity are very low in 2025 and were negative in 2023–2024, signaling weak value creation relative to the capital base.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is consistently positive and has improved in 2024–2025, but free cash flow is deeply negative every year shown, reflecting heavy investment/spend that is not being funded by internally generated cash. The relationship between free cash flow and net income is also weak (free cash flow materially below earnings), which elevates financing/refinancing risk if negative free cash flow persists.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 61.16B | 58.83B | 69.08B | 126.09B | 69.14B |
| Gross Profit | -1.65B | 22.87B | 22.45B | 28.93B | 16.03B |
| EBITDA | 15.05B | 16.84B | -7.70B | 27.34B | 23.84B |
| Net Income | 1.66B | -206.00M | -20.51B | 15.13B | 10.96B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 367.89B | 298.79B | 281.14B | 314.14B | 270.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 91.76B | 32.94B | 39.18B | 38.13B | 14.83B |
| Total Debt | 136.92B | 96.62B | 88.05B | 71.55B | 58.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 239.92B | 205.30B | 203.34B | 218.61B | 185.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 119.71B | 83.09B | 75.89B | 91.54B | 82.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -30.45B | -24.30B | -9.67B | -21.08B | -22.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.22B | 18.36B | 28.53B | 11.92B | 12.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -65.97B | -21.76B | -34.73B | -17.91B | -12.59B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.64B | 15.84B | 265.00M | 13.79B | 3.39B |
Orsted Technical Analysis
Negative
6.75
Price Trends
7.52
Negative
7.07
Positive
7.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Positive
38.53
Neutral
4.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNNGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.65, below the 50-day MA of 7.52, and below the 200-day MA of 7.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNNGY.
Orsted Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $7.68B | 23.42 | 5.91% | 5.60% | 2.54% | 124.89% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
61 Neutral | $7.68B | 23.42 | 5.91% | 5.29% | 2.54% | 124.89% | |
55 Neutral | $6.96B | -2.94 | -1196.72% | 3.84% | 5.93% | -39.88% | |
55 Neutral | $1.85B | -231.49 | 10.05% | ― | 42.09% | 219.69% | |
50 Neutral | $28.23B | -11.47 | 2.10% | ― | 19.16% | -147.89% | |
47 Neutral | $3.87B | -6.52 | -41.93% | ― | 765.67% | -202.81% |
* Utilities Sector Average
DNNGY
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-24.52%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.