Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) AI Stock Analysis

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Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

(NYSE:DNA)

Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:

$7.50

▲( 9.49% Upside)

The overall stock score reflects substantial financial challenges with consistent net losses and negative cash flows. While there is cautious optimism from recent earnings call highlights, such as cost reduction and strategic expansion, these are counterbalanced by poor valuation metrics and neutral technical indicators.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Ginkgo delivered 123 active revenue-generating cell programs, showing a 32% year-over-year growth, mainly driven by an increase in biopharma customers.

New Contracts and Services

The company announced a series of new contract and program wins, highlighting the potential of its new services model within its CE business, with the most notable win being the $29 million ARPA-H contract award.

Negative Factors

Biotech Market Uncertainty

Biotech market uncertainty weighs on visibility and 2025 guidance.

Revenue Visibility

Analyst's visibility on revenue per program remains low, leading to a reiteration of a Sell rating and a $6 price target for shares of DNA.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$400.94M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.20M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.87

Revenue Growth13.76%

EPS Growth48.34%

CountryUS

Employees834

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength43

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-1.68

Shares Outstanding46,344,630

10 Day Avg. Volume988,945

30 Day Avg. Volume1,204,498

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.04

Price to Book (P/B)0.56

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-1.18

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.42

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.31

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.14

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$9.17

Price Target Upside33.87% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering7

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGinkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. is a biotechnology company that specializes in using genetic engineering to design and produce custom organisms for a variety of industries. The company operates in the synthetic biology sector, providing a platform that enables the programming of biology for a wide range of applications, including pharmaceuticals, agriculture, food, and industrial chemicals. Ginkgo Bioworks leverages its expertise in organism engineering to offer innovative solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of its clients.

How the Company Makes MoneyGinkgo Bioworks makes money primarily through its platform, which allows customers to design and produce custom microorganisms for various applications. The company generates revenue by providing organism engineering services, which are typically delivered through collaborative partnerships with other companies in industries such as pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and specialty chemicals. These partnerships often involve milestone payments and royalties based on the successful development and commercialization of products. Additionally, Ginkgo may also earn revenue from licensing its proprietary technologies and intellectual property to third parties. The company's strategic partnerships with major corporations and its ability to scale its platform to address diverse biological challenges play a significant role in its revenue generation.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Active Programs

Total Active Programs
Counts the number of ongoing projects or initiatives, reflecting Ginkgo Bioworks' innovation pipeline and potential for future growth.

Chart InsightsGinkgo Bioworks' active programs surged until late 2024, but a sharp decline followed, likely due to macroeconomic pressures and reduced demand for outsourcing R&D services. Despite this, the company is strategically expanding into new tools businesses and securing government contracts, which may offset some challenges. The earnings call highlighted significant cost reductions and improved profitability metrics, indicating a focus on financial resilience. However, ongoing net losses and a tough biotech capital market remain concerns, suggesting a cautious outlook for future program growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings faces significant financial challenges, characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. While the balance sheet displays a manageable leverage profile, ongoing profitability and liquidity issues pose risks. The company needs to improve operational efficiency and revenue generation to enhance its financial position.

Income Statement

Neutral

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the past year, with a negative revenue growth rate of approximately -9.7%. The company faces substantial profitability challenges, as indicated by negative gross and net profit margins. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting ongoing operational and profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a relatively stable equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio at 0.61, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses. The equity ratio of 52% indicates a healthy proportion of equity financing, providing some stability amidst financial challenges.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, consistent with the company's net losses. There is a modest improvement in operating cash flow to net income ratio, but free cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing cash burn and potential liquidity risks.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
227.04M	251.46M	477.71M	313.84M	76.66M
	Gross Profit
188.49M	197.45M	273.49M	184.15M	61.05M
	EBIT
-559.76M	-864.41M	-2.21B	-1.83B	-137.03M
	EBITDA
-484.39M	-821.29M	-2.06B	-1.81B	-108.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-547.03M	-892.87M	-2.10B	-1.83B	-126.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
561.57M	944.07M	1.32B	1.55B	380.80M
	Total Assets
1.38B	1.67B	2.54B	2.07B	675.15M
	Total Debt
467.73M	241.77M	442.59M	23.03M	17.00M
	Net Debt
-93.84M	-702.30M	-873.20M	-1.53B	-363.80M
	Total Liabilities
661.39M	568.19M	803.04M	503.61M	205.10M
	Stockholders Equity
716.06M	1.10B	1.74B	1.51B	461.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-382.13M	-336.30M	-304.47M	-310.34M	-193.65M
	Operating Cash Flow
-319.58M	-295.50M	-252.20M	-253.82M	-135.83M
	Investing Cash Flow
-62.24M	-80.69M	-67.39M	-73.26M	-67.12M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.74M	-3.22M	95.34M	1.53B	90.32M

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price6.85

Price Trends

50DMA

7.24

Negative

100DMA

9.09

Negative

200DMA

8.70

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.02

Positive

RSI

43.61

Neutral

STOCH

10.23

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.52, below the 50-day MA of 7.24, and below the 200-day MA of 8.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNA.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Risk Analysis

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Our recent restructuring actions in connection with our plans to reduce operational expenditures may not result in anticipated savings, could result in total costs and expenses that are greater than expected and could disrupt our business. Q4, 2024

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (53)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MAZE	59 Neutral	$445.42M	―		―	―	―
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.06	-43.57%	2.81%	16.81%	-0.12%
DNA	48 Neutral	$400.94M	―	-57.76%	―	13.76%	48.34%
TRML	45 Neutral	$392.26M	―	-26.14%	―	―	74.59%
RAPP	44 Neutral	$373.01M	―	-33.14%	―	―	―
ERAS	34 Underperform	$342.78M	―	-45.82%	―	―	10.38%
SANA	33 Underperform	$451.11M	―	-71.44%	―	―	19.94%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DNA

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

6.99

-19.45

-73.56%

SANA

Sana Biotechnology

1.99

-6.03

-75.19%

TRML

Tourmaline Bio

15.27

1.82

13.53%

ERAS

Erasca

1.22

-1.41

-53.61%

RAPP

Rapport Therapeutics, Inc.

10.82

-15.37

-58.69%

MAZE

Maze Therapeutics, Inc.

10.28

-4.72

-31.47%

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 6.20%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects significant progress in cost reduction, revenue growth in key segments, and strategic expansion into new business areas, offset by ongoing net losses and challenges in the macroeconomic environment. The sentiment is cautiously optimistic with substantial achievements but also notable challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Cost Reduction Achieved

Ginkgo Bioworks achieved a $205 million reduction in annual run rate costs between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, exceeding the target of $200 million set for mid-2025.

Increase in Cell Engineering Revenue

Cell Engineering revenue increased by 37% to $38 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. Excluding noncash revenue, the increase was 10%.

Strategic Expansion into Tools Business

Ginkgo Bioworks expanded its offerings to include tools business, Datapoints and Automation, aiming to diversify revenue streams and serve a broader customer base.

Improved Profitability and Cash Burn

Adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $117 million in Q1 2024 to negative $47 million in Q1 2025. Cash burn decreased from $104 million to $58 million year-over-year.

New Government Contracts

Ginkgo secured a $29 million ARPA-H contract and continues to work on 28 government projects with a significant backlog.

Negative Updates

Continued Net Loss

Despite improvements, Ginkgo Bioworks reported a net loss for Q1 2025, highlighting ongoing challenges in reaching profitability.

Macro Environment Challenges

The biotech capital market is experiencing a tough time, which presents challenges in securing funding and affects the overall industry outlook.

Pressure on Outsourcing in Biopharma

There is a general hesitancy and reduced demand for outsourcing R&D services, impacting Ginkgo's traditional solutions business.

Company Guidance

During the earnings call, Ginkgo Bioworks provided significant guidance on their financial and strategic trajectory. The company reported a $205 million reduction in their annual run rate between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, surpassing their target of $200 million by Q3 2025, and is on track to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2026. They also highlighted their strong financial position with $517 million in cash and cash equivalents and no bank debt. Revenue from the Cell Engineering business grew by 37% year-over-year to $38 million, with a 32% increase in revenue-generating programs. Biosecurity revenue was reported at $10 million for the quarter with a segment gross margin of 28%. The call also included updated full-year revenue guidance, now expected to be between $167 million and $187 million, reflecting a $7.5 million noncash deferred revenue release. Additionally, the company emphasized their strategic progress in launching new tools businesses, such as Datapoints and Automation, as well as expanding opportunities with government clients, notably securing a $29 million ARPA-H contract.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Ginkgo Bioworks Announces CFO Transition

Neutral

May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Ginkgo Bioworks announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Mark Dmytruk, effective May 30, 2025, as he transitions to another organization. Steven Coen, the current Chief Accounting Officer, will assume the role of CFO, bringing over 30 years of experience in public accounting and corporate finance. Coen’s appointment is expected to provide continuity and build upon the financial strategies laid out by Dmytruk, with a focus on achieving cost reduction targets and reaching Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNA) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings stock, see the DNA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.