Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) AI Stock Analysis

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Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

(NYSE:DNA)

Rating:48Neutral

Price Target:

$9.50

▼(-2.86%Downside)

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings is navigating significant financial difficulties with consistent net losses and negative cash flows, impacting its stock valuation. Technical indicators show mixed short-term trends, and while there is strategic progress in cost reductions and business expansion, the macroeconomic challenges continue to pose risks. The cautiously optimistic outlook from the latest earnings call slightly offsets these challenges, but the overall risk remains high.

Positive Factors

Leadership transition

Steve Coen, with over 30 years of experience, is set to replace the outgoing CFO, promising a smooth leadership transition.

Operational performance

Ginkgo delivered a slight beat on the top line and adjusted EBITDA while keeping guidance for the year intact, showcasing operational resilience.

Negative Factors

Biotech market uncertainty

Biotech market uncertainty weighs on visibility and 2025 guidance, affecting confidence in future performance.

Revenue visibility

Analyst's visibility on revenue per program remains low, leading to a reiteration of a Sell rating and a $6 price target for shares of DNA.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$497.52M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.06M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.88

Revenue Growth13.76%

EPS Growth48.34%

CountryUS

Employees834

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength55

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-1.68

Shares Outstanding46,344,630

10 Day Avg. Volume1,079,989

30 Day Avg. Volume1,064,268

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.20

Price to Book (P/B)1.63

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-9.32

Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.18

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.97

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.76

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.17

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$9.00

Price Target Upside-7.98% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering5

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGinkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. is a leading biotechnology company specializing in the development of custom organisms across multiple sectors, including pharmaceuticals, agriculture, food, and industrial chemicals. The company leverages its expertise in synthetic biology to design microorganisms that can produce valuable chemicals, materials, and other products. Ginkgo Bioworks operates a platform that enables the programming of cells for a variety of applications, partnering with organizations to create tailored biological solutions.

How the Company Makes MoneyGinkgo Bioworks primarily generates revenue through a combination of collaboration fees, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships with companies across diverse industries. The company engages with partners to develop custom organisms that meet specific commercial needs, often entering into multi-year agreements that provide upfront payments and potential downstream revenue through royalties on sales of products developed using Ginkgo's engineered organisms. Additionally, Ginkgo Bioworks offers its expertise in cell programming as a service, providing access to its extensive biological engineering capabilities. Strategic collaborations and joint ventures further enhance its revenue streams, allowing the company to expand its reach and capitalize on its synthetic biology platform.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Active Programs

Total Active Programs
Counts the number of ongoing projects or initiatives, indicating the company's innovation capacity and potential for future revenue streams.

Chart InsightsGinkgo Bioworks' active programs surged until late 2024, but a sharp decline followed, likely due to macroeconomic pressures and reduced demand for outsourcing R&D services. Despite this, the company is strategically expanding into new tools businesses and securing government contracts, which may offset some challenges. The earnings call highlighted significant cost reductions and improved profitability metrics, indicating a focus on financial resilience. However, ongoing net losses and a tough biotech capital market remain concerns, suggesting a cautious outlook for future program growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 51.63%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects significant progress in cost reduction, revenue growth in key segments, and strategic expansion into new business areas, offset by ongoing net losses and challenges in the macroeconomic environment. The sentiment is cautiously optimistic with substantial achievements but also notable challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Cost Reduction Achieved

Ginkgo Bioworks achieved a $205 million reduction in annual run rate costs between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, exceeding the target of $200 million set for mid-2025.

Increase in Cell Engineering Revenue

Cell Engineering revenue increased by 37% to $38 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. Excluding noncash revenue, the increase was 10%.

Strategic Expansion into Tools Business

Ginkgo Bioworks expanded its offerings to include tools business, Datapoints and Automation, aiming to diversify revenue streams and serve a broader customer base.

Improved Profitability and Cash Burn

Adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $117 million in Q1 2024 to negative $47 million in Q1 2025. Cash burn decreased from $104 million to $58 million year-over-year.

New Government Contracts

Ginkgo secured a $29 million ARPA-H contract and continues to work on 28 government projects with a significant backlog.

Negative Updates

Continued Net Loss

Despite improvements, Ginkgo Bioworks reported a net loss for Q1 2025, highlighting ongoing challenges in reaching profitability.

Macro Environment Challenges

The biotech capital market is experiencing a tough time, which presents challenges in securing funding and affects the overall industry outlook.

Pressure on Outsourcing in Biopharma

There is a general hesitancy and reduced demand for outsourcing R&D services, impacting Ginkgo's traditional solutions business.

Company Guidance

During the earnings call, Ginkgo Bioworks provided significant guidance on their financial and strategic trajectory. The company reported a $205 million reduction in their annual run rate between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, surpassing their target of $200 million by Q3 2025, and is on track to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2026. They also highlighted their strong financial position with $517 million in cash and cash equivalents and no bank debt. Revenue from the Cell Engineering business grew by 37% year-over-year to $38 million, with a 32% increase in revenue-generating programs. Biosecurity revenue was reported at $10 million for the quarter with a segment gross margin of 28%. The call also included updated full-year revenue guidance, now expected to be between $167 million and $187 million, reflecting a $7.5 million noncash deferred revenue release. Additionally, the company emphasized their strategic progress in launching new tools businesses, such as Datapoints and Automation, as well as expanding opportunities with government clients, notably securing a $29 million ARPA-H contract.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings is facing substantial financial challenges with consistent net losses and negative operating cash flows. While the company maintains a reasonable leverage position and gross profit margins, the negative profitability and cash flow issues highlight the need for strategic improvements.

Income Statement

Negative

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings has shown a declining trend in revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The gross profit margin for TTM 2025 is approximately 73.55%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the company is facing significant losses with a net profit margin of -198.86% in TTM 2025, highlighting profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, showing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 in TTM 2025, indicating reasonable leverage. The equity ratio stands at 50.06%, suggesting a balanced equity position. However, the return on equity is negative due to the net losses, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow remains negative at -$281.8 million in TTM 2025, indicating cash outflows from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is poor, reflecting challenges in converting earnings into cash. However, the company has shown some improvement in free cash flow since 2024, with a growth rate of 9.63%.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
237.42M	227.04M	251.46M	477.71M	313.84M	76.66M
	Gross Profit
174.71M	188.49M	197.45M	273.49M	184.15M	61.05M
	EBIT
-470.72M	-559.76M	-864.41M	-2.21B	-1.83B	-137.03M
	EBITDA
-384.69M	-484.39M	-821.29M	-2.06B	-1.81B	-108.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-472.07M	-547.03M	-892.87M	-2.10B	-1.83B	-126.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
516.92M	561.57M	944.07M	1.32B	1.55B	380.80M
	Total Assets
1.29B	1.38B	1.67B	2.54B	2.07B	675.15M
	Total Debt
434.56M	467.73M	241.77M	442.59M	23.03M	17.00M
	Net Debt
122.14M	-93.84M	-702.30M	-873.20M	-1.53B	-363.80M
	Total Liabilities
646.04M	661.39M	568.19M	803.04M	503.61M	205.10M
	Stockholders Equity
647.43M	716.06M	1.10B	1.74B	1.51B	461.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-345.30M	-382.13M	-336.30M	-304.47M	-310.34M	-193.65M
	Operating Cash Flow
-281.85M	-319.58M	-295.50M	-252.20M	-253.82M	-135.83M
	Investing Cash Flow
-248.81M	-62.24M	-80.69M	-67.39M	-73.26M	-67.12M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.10M	-1.74M	-3.22M	95.34M	1.53B	90.32M

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price9.78

Price Trends

50DMA

7.47

Positive

100DMA

8.77

Positive

200DMA

8.57

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.34

Negative

RSI

64.24

Neutral

STOCH

89.02

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.69, above the 50-day MA of 7.47, and above the 200-day MA of 8.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DNA.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Risk Analysis

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MAZE	59 Neutral	$559.73M	―		―	―	―
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.31	-45.11%	3.29%	16.82%	0.04%
DNA	48 Neutral	$497.52M	―	-57.76%	―	13.76%	48.34%
TRML	45 Neutral	$488.08M	―	-26.14%	―	―	74.59%
RAPP	44 Neutral	$441.62M	―	-33.14%	―	―	―
ERAS	34 Underperform	$430.60M	―	-45.82%	―	―	10.38%
SANA	33 Underperform	$656.37M	―	-71.44%	―	―	19.94%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DNA

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

9.29

-8.70

-48.36%

SANA

Sana Biotechnology

2.54

-3.54

-58.22%

TRML

Tourmaline Bio

19.90

2.94

17.33%

ERAS

Erasca

1.53

-0.64

-29.49%

RAPP

Rapport Therapeutics, Inc.

11.14

-13.16

-54.16%

MAZE

Maze Therapeutics, Inc.

13.55

-1.45

-9.67%

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Ginkgo Bioworks Announces CFO Transition

Neutral

May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Ginkgo Bioworks announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Mark Dmytruk, effective May 30, 2025, as he transitions to another organization. Steven Coen, the current Chief Accounting Officer, will assume the role of CFO, bringing over 30 years of experience in public accounting and corporate finance. Coen’s appointment is expected to provide continuity and build upon the financial strategies laid out by Dmytruk, with a focus on achieving cost reduction targets and reaching Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNA) stock is a Sell with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings stock, see the DNA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.