Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) AI Stock Analysis

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Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

(NYSE:DNA)

Select Model

Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:43Neutral

Price Target:

$8.50

▼(-7.31% Downside)

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (declining revenue, large losses, and negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides partial support through reaffirmed revenue guidance, sharply reduced cash burn, and a strong cash position, but ongoing EBITDA losses and segment revenue declines keep the overall profile below average.

Positive Factors

Cash Position

A strong cash position with no bank debt provides financial stability and flexibility, enabling strategic investments and operations continuity.

Strategic Partnerships

Long-term partnerships like the one with Bayer enhance market position and provide steady revenue streams, supporting sustainable growth.

Cost Reduction

Significant cost reductions improve financial health and operational efficiency, allowing the company to allocate resources more effectively.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A sharp decline in revenue from core segments can hinder growth and profitability, challenging the company's ability to sustain operations.

Negative Profit Margins

Persistent negative profit margins indicate operational inefficiencies and high costs, which can undermine long-term financial viability.

Operating Losses

Rising operating losses in key segments reflect challenges in cost management and revenue generation, impacting overall business sustainability.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$537.44M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)878.87K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.78

Revenue Growth-17.13%

EPS Growth51.74%

CountryUS

Employees834

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength45

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-1.45

Shares Outstanding48,523,594

10 Day Avg. Volume696,988

30 Day Avg. Volume878,867

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.02

Price to Book (P/B)0.71

Price to Sales (P/S)2.24

P/FCF Ratio-1.33

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42

Enterprise Value/Revenue4.23

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.81

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.35

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$14.00

Price Target Upside52.67% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering3

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGinkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops platform for cell programming. Its platform is used to program cells to enable biological production of products, such as novel therapeutics, food ingredients, and chemicals derived from petroleum. The company serves various end markets, including specialty chemicals, agriculture, food, consumer products, and pharmaceuticals. Ginkgo Bioworks has a partnership with Selecta Biosciences, Inc. to develop ImmTOR technology platform. Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyGinkgo Bioworks generates revenue through several key streams primarily focused on its partnerships and customer contracts in the biotechnology sector. The company collaborates with various organizations, including pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial companies, to develop custom organisms tailored to specific needs. Revenue is generated from service fees for its organism design and development services, as well as from licensing agreements that allow partners to utilize Ginkgo's proprietary technologies. Additionally, Ginkgo may earn royalties from commercialized products developed using its engineered organisms. Significant partnerships with major corporations enhance Ginkgo’s revenue potential by providing access to larger markets and more substantial projects, contributing notably to its earnings.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Active Programs

Total Active Programs
Counts the number of ongoing projects or initiatives, indicating the company's innovation capacity and potential for future revenue streams.

Chart InsightsGinkgo Bioworks' active programs surged until late 2024, but a sharp decline followed, likely due to macroeconomic pressures and reduced demand for outsourcing R&D services. Despite this, the company is strategically expanding into new tools businesses and securing government contracts, which may offset some challenges. The earnings call highlighted significant cost reductions and improved profitability metrics, indicating a focus on financial resilience. However, ongoing net losses and a tough biotech capital market remain concerns, suggesting a cautious outlook for future program growth.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in cost reductions and cash position, as well as strategic expansions and partnerships. However, these were offset by notable challenges in revenue declines and increased operating losses in the Cell Engineering segment. While the company is making strategic moves to position itself for future growth, the current financial metrics present a mixed picture.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Cash Burn Reduction

Ginkgo achieved a dramatic reduction in quarterly cash burn over the last year, decreasing from $114 million in Q3 2024 to $28 million in Q3 2025, a 75% decrease.

Strong Cash Position

The company maintains a robust cash position with $462 million in cash and cash equivalents and no bank debt as of Q3 2025.

Expansion of Frontier Autonomous Lab

Ginkgo is expanding its frontier autonomous lab in Boston, which includes the world's largest RAC install, demonstrating advancements in AI and robotics integration.

BARDA Award

Ginkgo and its partners secured a $22 million award from BARDA for monoclonal antibody manufacturing to improve national security and reduce drug manufacturing costs.

Extended Partnership with Bayer

Ginkgo extended its 5-year partnership with Bayer to engineer microbes for fertilizer production, highlighting a long-term collaboration with a major agricultural company.

Negative Updates

Significant Revenue Decline in Cell Engineering

Cell Engineering revenue was $29 million in Q3 2025, down 61% compared to Q3 2024, mainly due to a $45 million noncash revenue in 2024 from a terminated agreement.

Decreased Revenue-Generating Cell Engineering Programs

The number of revenue-generating Cell Engineering programs decreased by 5% year-over-year, attributed to ongoing program rationalization.

Increased Cell Engineering Segment Operating Loss

Cell Engineering segment operating loss increased to $37 million in Q3 2025 from $5 million in the prior year, largely due to a $21 million shortfall related to a Google Cloud contract.

Negative Adjusted EBITDA

Total adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2025 was negative $56 million, compared to negative $20 million in Q3 2024, influenced by the Google Cloud shortfall expense.

Company Guidance

In the recent call, Ginkgo Bioworks provided detailed guidance on their financial and strategic outlook. For the full year 2025, they reaffirmed their overall revenue guidance of $167 million to $187 million, with Cell Engineering revenue projected at $117 million to $137 million, and Biosecurity revenue expected to be at least $40 million. They also highlighted a significant reduction in cash burn, reporting a 75% decrease from $114 million in Q3 of 2024 to $28 million in Q3 of 2025. The company holds $462 million in cash and cash equivalents with no bank debt, underscoring their strong financial position. Despite a 61% decline in Cell Engineering revenue due to a $45 million noncash revenue in the prior year, they supported 102 revenue-generating programs, attributing a 5% decrease to program rationalization. Biosecurity revenue reached $9 million with a segment gross margin of 19%. In terms of expenses, Cell Engineering R&D costs dropped 8% to $51 million, and G&A expenses decreased 47% to $12 million. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at negative $56 million, down from negative $20 million in the previous year, influenced by a $21 million Google Cloud contract shortfall and the prior year's noncash revenue. Looking ahead, Ginkgo is focused on expanding its AI and automation initiatives, aiming for a significant shift towards a tools business model by 2030, potentially making up 80% of their revenue mix.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues, substantial losses, and negative cash flows. Despite a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, persistent negative profitability and cash flow issues pose risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings has experienced declining revenue over the TTM period with a significant negative revenue growth rate of -21.75%. The company shows strong gross profit margins, but the net profit margin is deeply negative, indicating substantial losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased over time, indicating rising leverage, but remains moderate at 0.76. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a reasonable proportion of equity financing, but the overall financial health is weakened by persistent losses.

Cash Flow

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings has negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate of -31.73% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	180.61M	227.04M	251.46M	477.71M	313.84M	76.66M
Gross Profit	131.31M	188.49M	197.45M	273.49M	184.15M	61.05M
EBITDA	-324.47M	-484.39M	-821.29M	-2.06B	-1.81B	-108.58M
Net Income	-339.55M	-547.03M	-892.87M	-2.10B	-1.83B	-126.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.19B	1.38B	1.67B	2.54B	2.07B	675.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	461.86M	561.57M	944.07M	1.32B	1.55B	380.80M
Total Debt	422.87M	467.73M	239.31M	442.59M	23.03M	17.00M
Total Liabilities	629.38M	661.39M	568.19M	803.04M	503.61M	205.10M
Stockholders Equity	559.78M	716.06M	1.10B	1.74B	1.51B	461.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-187.19M	-382.13M	-336.30M	-304.47M	-310.34M	-193.65M
Operating Cash Flow	-165.82M	-319.58M	-295.50M	-252.20M	-253.82M	-135.83M
Investing Cash Flow	-348.47M	-62.24M	-80.69M	-67.39M	-73.26M	-67.12M
Financing Cash Flow	9.43M	-1.74M	-3.22M	95.34M	1.53B	90.32M

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price9.17

Price Trends

50DMA

9.41

Negative

100DMA

11.05

Negative

200DMA

10.05

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.20

Negative

RSI

53.74

Neutral

STOCH

73.27

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.79, below the 50-day MA of 9.41, and below the 200-day MA of 10.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DNA.

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Risk Analysis

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NAGE	75 Outperform	$514.75M	27.77	38.90%	―	36.04%	1240.00%
JBIO	55 Neutral	$603.58M	-1.16	-50.23%	14.68%	―	89.16%
MNPR	53 Neutral	$412.52M	-17.76	-26.54%	―	―	-73.48%
LYEL	52 Neutral	$595.04M	-1.12	-75.75%	―	-34.92%	-43.26%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ABSI	49 Neutral	$562.39M	-4.31	-55.68%	―	-33.09%	3.38%
DNA	43 Neutral	$537.44M	-1.47	-50.02%	―	-17.13%	51.74%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DNA

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

9.17

-1.94

-17.46%

NAGE

Niagen Bioscience

6.76

1.31

24.04%

MNPR

Monopar Therapeutics Inc

61.07

36.61

149.65%

LYEL

Lyell Immunopharma

25.73

12.70

97.47%

JBIO

Jade Biosciences

13.17

3.52

36.48%

ABSI

AbSci

3.90

0.68

21.12%

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Ginkgo Bioworks realigns leadership, shifts COO responsibilities

Positive

Dec 23, 2025

On December 18, 2025, Ginkgo Bioworks announced that longtime co-founder and Chief Operating Officer Dr. Reshma Shetty will transition her COO responsibilities to CEO Dr. Jason Kelly and senior executive Jennifer Wipf, effective January 1, 2026. Dr. Shetty will remain President and a member of the Board and will concentrate on expanding and utilizing the company’s autonomous lab to deliver its cell engineering service offerings, while Dr. Kelly assumes the principal operating officer policymaking role and Wipf, formerly Chief Commercial Officer and General Manager for Discovery Solutions and Manufacturing, takes charge of day-to-day commercial and operational functions, including procurement, deployment, facilities, real estate, and people operations, reflecting a leadership realignment aimed at strengthening operations and commercial execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNA) stock is a Sell with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings stock, see the DNA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 25, 2025