Erasca (ERAS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 45.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 103
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 283,711,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,337,600
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,604,122
• PEG Ratio: 0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -3.25K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -21.50
• 1Y Price Target: $6.88
• Price Target Upside: -28.48% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-11.64% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, heavy losses, and ongoing cash burn). Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. Valuation remains challenged by negative earnings, partially offset by a positive corporate update showing accelerating clinical momentum and clear upcoming data catalysts.

Positive Factors

Clinical momentum in RAS programs

Accelerated dose escalation and early partial responses across tumor types materially increase the probability of program success and de-risk the lead assets. Durable clinical progress and favorable safety/PK support continued investment, potential partnerships, and clearer development choices into 2026–2027.

Modest leverage on the balance sheet

Low debt-to-equity (~0.13) reduces near-term refinancing and interest burden risks, giving management financial flexibility to fund R&D without heavy reliance on costly borrowings. This structural strength improves survivability through multi-year development cycles common in biotech.

Focused RAS/MAPK pipeline with clear timelines

A concentrated RAS/MAPK strategy with defined near-term and medium-term data readouts enhances strategic clarity. Predictable milestones aid resource allocation, partnering/licensing discussions, and program prioritization—structural advantages for execution over the next 2–18 months.

Negative Factors

No revenue and sustained operating losses

As a pre-commercial biotech, persistent zero revenue and sizable TTM losses mean the company relies entirely on capital markets or partners to fund operations. This structural dependence raises dilution risk and constrains long-term investment unless clinical progress converts to sustainable financing sources.

Weak cash generation and deteriorating FCF

Material negative operating and free cash flow, with sharply worsening FCF growth, signal accelerating cash burn. Structurally this shortens runway for multi-cohort trials, increases probability of financing needs, and may force delays, asset sales, or dilutive financings affecting long-term execution.

Equity erosion and negative returns on capital

A meaningful drop in shareholders' equity and deeply negative ROE reflect capital erosion from ongoing losses. Structurally, this undermines investor returns, increases likelihood of future equity raises, and limits the company's ability to absorb setbacks without materially diluting existing holders.

Erasca Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Erasca, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing therapies for patients with RAS/MAPK pathway-driven cancers. The company's lead candidates include ERAS-007, an oral inhibitor of ERK1/2 for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and acute myeloid leukemia; and ERAS-601, an oral SHP2 inhibitor for patients with advanced or metastatic solid tumors. It is also developing ERAS-801, a central nervous system-penetrant EGFR inhibitor for the treatment of patients with recurrent glioblastoma multiforme. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Erasca makes money primarily through partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, focusing on the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. As a clinical-stage company, Erasca is not yet generating revenue from product sales, but it may receive milestone payments, research funding, and potential royalties from strategic alliances. The company also relies on equity financing and public offerings to fund its operations and R&D activities.

Erasca Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Development-stage profile with zero revenue and large ongoing losses (TTM net income -$127.7M; TTM EBIT -$144.0M) alongside significant cash burn (TTM FCF -$98.4M). Balance sheet leverage is modest (debt-to-equity ~0.13), but equity has declined (from $423.5M to $347.9M), underscoring continued burn/dilution risk.

Income Statement

ERAS continues to report zero revenue across the period provided, consistent with a pre-commercial biotechnology profile. Losses remain large and persistent: Net income was -$127.7M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus -$161.7M in 2024 (annual), indicating some improvement year-over-year, but profitability is still deeply negative with TTM EBIT at -$144.0M. The lack of revenue and continued heavy operating losses meaningfully weaken earnings quality and near-term visibility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength: leverage appears modest with debt-to-equity at ~0.13 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (and ~0.12 in 2024 annual), suggesting manageable financial risk from borrowing. However, equity has declined from $423.5M (2024 annual) to $347.9M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), consistent with ongoing losses and dilution/burn risk. Returns on equity are negative in the most recent periods (TTM ROE about -31%), reflecting that capital is not yet generating profits.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak, with operating cash flow at -$98.3M and free cash flow at -$98.4M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating continued cash burn to fund operations. Free cash flow also deteriorated sharply versus 2024 (annual) (free cash flow growth about -76.6% in TTM). A positive free cash flow to net income ratio near ~1.0 mainly reflects that losses are being mirrored by cash outflows rather than signaling healthy cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-832.00K	0.00	-3.73M	-2.64M	-829.00K	0.00
EBITDA	-125.90M	-153.28M	-121.31M	-240.16M	-121.94M	-36.97M
Net Income	-127.69M	-161.65M	-125.04M	-242.81M	-122.76M	-101.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	420.40M	502.53M	395.30M	514.91M	501.42M	124.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	288.40M	298.31M	312.35M	435.62M	414.48M	118.70M
Total Debt	48.29M	51.89M	55.86M	55.10M	18.79M	2.99M
Total Liabilities	72.52M	79.03M	78.61M	103.06M	44.89M	17.40M
Stockholders Equity	347.89M	423.50M	316.69M	411.85M	456.53M	107.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.43M	-131.98M	-102.99M	-119.81M	-98.48M	-71.38M
Operating Cash Flow	-98.31M	-109.42M	-101.22M	-103.26M	-79.60M	-32.69M
Investing Cash Flow	98.33M	-156.62M	-91.22M	-71.08M	-64.59M	-71.20M
Financing Cash Flow	1.32M	240.70M	1.29M	98.08M	439.40M	139.99M

Erasca Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ERAS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.07, above the 50-day MA of 3.80, and above the 200-day MA of 2.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 87.81 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ERAS.

Erasca Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARVN	61 Neutral	$783.54M	-15.19	―	―	―	―
OLMA	56 Neutral	$2.13B	-14.98	-59.22%	―	―	17.23%
BCAX	56 Neutral	$917.60M	―	-26.64%	―	―	-103.95%
ERAS	52 Neutral	$2.73B	-21.34	-32.00%	―	―	45.66%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ARCT	46 Neutral	$207.14M	-2.96	-27.43%	―	-41.53%	-11.32%

Erasca Corporate Events

Erasca Highlights Accelerated Progress in RAS-Targeted Trials

On January 12, 2026, Erasca updated its corporate presentation and announced clinical progress across its RAS-targeting franchise, highlighting that dose escalation in the Phase 1 AURORAS-1 trial of ERAS-0015 has been advancing faster than anticipated, with ongoing confirmed and unconfirmed partial responses seen at low doses across multiple tumor types and RAS mutations, alongside favorable safety, tolerability, and linear pharmacokinetics observed as of a January 7, 2026 data cutoff. The company also reported that dose escalation for its pan-KRAS inhibitor ERAS-4001 in the Phase 1 BOREALIS-1 trial is proceeding as expected and laid out a detailed development timeline, with initial Phase 1 monotherapy data for ERAS-0015 expected in the first half of 2026, initial monotherapy data for ERAS-4001 in the second half of 2026, and subsequent expansion and combination cohort readouts slated into 2027, while shifting to use its website rather than regulatory filings as the primary channel for future corporate presentation updates, a move that underscores its growing clinical momentum and investor outreach efforts around its core RAS/MAPK-focused strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (ERAS) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Erasca stock, see the ERAS Stock Forecast page.