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Arvinas Holding Company (ARVN)
NASDAQ:ARVN
US Market

Arvinas Holding Company (ARVN) AI Stock Analysis

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Arvinas Holding Company

(NASDAQ:ARVN)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(0.00%Upside)
Arvinas's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and positive strategic developments from recent earnings calls, but is weighed down by ongoing profitability challenges and mixed technical indicators. The company's negative valuation metrics further contribute to a cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Efficacy and Safety
Vepdegestrant achieved a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.0 months vs 2.1 months with fulvestrant, placing vepdeg ahead of other oral SERDs in the competitive landscape.
Market Positioning
Pfizer's strong presence in breast cancer is expected to help drive the adoption of vepdegestrant.
Tolerability
Low rates of adverse events could meaningfully influence physician choice, favoring vepdegestrant over other treatments.
Negative Factors
Commercialization Strategy
Co-commercialization may be less appealing for both companies, given the relatively small target patient population.
Market Competition
As a monotherapy, the drug may face competition from other treatments, potentially relegating it to a later line of therapy.
Partnership Uncertainty
There is expected volatility in ARVN shares as discussions continue regarding the future of the Pfizer partnership.

Arvinas Holding Company (ARVN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Arvinas Holding Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArvinas Holding Company (ARVN) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the research and development of therapeutics aimed at degrading disease-causing proteins. The company operates in the healthcare sector, focusing on creating innovative protein degradation therapies for the treatment of cancers and other serious diseases. Arvinas leverages its proprietary PROTAC (PROteolysis TArgeting Chimeras) technology platform to develop small molecule therapies that harness the body's natural protein disposal system to selectively degrade and eliminate unwanted proteins.
How the Company Makes MoneyArvinas makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapeutics. The company generates revenue from collaboration and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. These partnerships enable Arvinas to leverage its PROTAC technology across a broader range of therapeutic areas while sharing development costs and risks. Additionally, as its drug candidates progress through clinical trials and receive regulatory approval, Arvinas anticipates generating revenue from the sales of its proprietary drugs. Key factors contributing to its earnings include successful clinical trial outcomes, strategic partnerships, and the eventual commercialization of its drug candidates.

Arvinas Holding Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -27.23%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive sentiment with significant progress in clinical trials, especially for Vepdegestrant and ARV-102. However, the removal of planned phase 3 trials and workforce reductions indicate challenges and strategic realignments.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Phase 3 Results for Vepdegestrant
Arvinas announced positive phase 3 results from the VERITAC-2 trial for Vepdegestrant, demonstrating a clinically meaningful improvement in progression-free survival in ESR1 mutant tumors.
Progress in Neuroscience Program
Arvinas reported promising first-in-human data for ARV-102, their LRRK2 degrader, showing substantial central LRRK2 protein degradation and a favorable safety profile.
Reduction in Operating Expenses
Arvinas announced a restructuring effort, including a workforce reduction and portfolio reprioritization, resulting in cost savings and avoidance of approximately $500 million over three years, extending the cash runway into the second half of 2028.
Strong Financial Position
Arvinas reported $954 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at the end of Q1 2025 and significantly increased revenue due to changes in collaboration agreements.
Negative Updates
Removal of Phase 3 Combination Trials
Arvinas and Pfizer decided to remove two phase 3 combination trials from their joint development plan due to emerging data and strategic alignment, impacting the scope of their collaboration.
Workforce Reduction
Arvinas implemented a workforce reduction affecting approximately one-third of the company as part of a cost reduction initiative.
Company Guidance
During the Arvinas first-quarter 2025 earnings call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company's strategic direction and financial outlook. Arvinas plans to submit a regulatory filing for Vepdegestrant (VEPDEG) in the second line plus ESR1 mutant breast cancer, following strong data from the VERITAC-2 study. The company announced a restructuring effort to extend its cash runway into the second half of 2028, including a workforce reduction of approximately one-third and an annual cost reduction of $80 million. These actions are expected to result in around $500 million in cost savings and avoidance over the next three years. Arvinas also confirmed that its promising pipeline will be supported, with clinical data for ARV-102 in Neurodegeneration and ARV-393 in Hematology expected later in 2025. The company reported cash and equivalents of $954 million at the end of the first quarter, with total revenue of $188.8 million, indicating a strong financial position to support its strategic initiatives.

Arvinas Holding Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Arvinas shows strong revenue growth but is challenged by unprofitability and negative cash flows. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity base, but operational efficiencies need improvement to sustain long-term growth.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Arvinas Holding Company has shown a significant increase in total revenue with a TTM revenue of $426.9M compared to $263.4M in the previous year, indicating strong growth. However, the company remains unprofitable with negative EBIT and net income, reflecting challenges in managing operational costs and achieving profitability. The gross profit margin is high, but the negative net profit margin highlights the significant expenses outweighing revenues.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet is relatively stable with a strong equity base and a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent financial management. The company maintains a high level of cash and equivalents, which provides a buffer against financial uncertainty. The equity ratio indicates a solid capital structure, which is positive for long-term stability.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals challenges with negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential difficulties in sustaining operations without additional financing. Despite this, the company has managed to maintain liquidity through investing activities. The negative free cash flow growth rate suggests that the company is not yet generating sufficient cash from its operations.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
426.90M263.40M78.50M131.40M46.70M21.80M
Gross Profit
423.60M256.80M78.50M123.20M40.70M21.80M
EBIT
-95.60M-250.20M-401.50M-263.20M-195.30M-124.86M
EBITDA
-91.00M-250.20M-394.80M-256.90M-183.60M-117.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-46.60M-198.90M-367.30M-271.90M-183.20M-111.79M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
954.30M1.04B1.26B1.21B1.50B688.53M
Total Assets
1.00B1.09B1.30B1.27B1.58B717.37M
Total Debt
10.50M9.70M3.20M5.50M5.00M4.04M
Net Debt
-70.50M-90.80M-308.50M-75.80M-103.30M-584.33M
Total Liabilities
341.00M529.70M644.60M703.90M799.90M75.11M
Stockholders Equity
660.10M561.70M660.00M564.90M781.70M642.26M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-252.80M-261.10M-350.70M-280.30M554.70M-96.20M
Operating Cash Flow
-250.70M-259.30M-347.80M-273.50M559.40M-89.76M
Investing Cash Flow
232.00M34.70M203.50M242.80M-1.31B164.25M
Financing Cash Flow
6.20M7.90M374.70M4.70M278.60M504.67M

Arvinas Holding Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.00
Price Trends
50DMA
7.34
Negative
100DMA
11.70
Negative
200DMA
18.02
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Negative
RSI
46.30
Neutral
STOCH
64.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.70, below the 50-day MA of 7.34, and below the 200-day MA of 18.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARVN.

Arvinas Holding Company Risk Analysis

Arvinas Holding Company disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arvinas Holding Company reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We may be subject to securities litigation, which is expensive and could divert management attention. Q4, 2024
2.
Social media platforms and Artificial Intelligence, or AI, based platforms present new risks and challenges to our business. Q4, 2024
3.
Changes in U.S. and international trade policies, particularly with respect to China, may adversely impact our business and operating results. Q4, 2024

Arvinas Holding Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$923.97M68.2133.47%29.77%
64
Neutral
$448.64M8.9411.96%43.67%
59
Neutral
$730.52M53.85-4.52%92.31%78.17%
53
Neutral
$5.25B3.24-45.38%2.81%16.79%-0.06%
49
Neutral
$535.03M-35.41%-39.92%7.38%
OPOPT
39
Underperform
$480.08M
-25.10%-7.06%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ARVN
Arvinas Holding Company
6.95
-20.75
-74.91%
NAGE
Niagen Bioscience
11.72
8.86
309.79%
IMTX
Immatics
5.75
-7.74
-57.38%
OPT
Opthea Limited Sponsored ADR
3.20
0.70
28.00%
PRTC
PureTech Health
18.60
-10.36
-35.77%

Arvinas Holding Company Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Arvinas and Pfizer Announce Phase 3 Trial Results
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

On May 31, 2025, Arvinas, Inc. and Pfizer announced detailed results from their Phase 3 VERITAC-2 clinical trial, which evaluated vepdegestrant as a monotherapy for ER+/HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer. The trial demonstrated a significant improvement in progression-free survival among patients with ESR1 mutations, with vepdegestrant reducing the risk of disease progression or death by 43% compared to fulvestrant. Despite not reaching statistical significance in the intent-to-treat population, the results suggest vepdegestrant’s potential as a best-in-class treatment option. The companies plan to submit a New Drug Application to the FDA in the latter half of 2025, indicating a significant step towards regulatory approval and potential market introduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARVN) stock is a Buy with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arvinas Holding Company stock, see the ARVN Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Arvinas Showcases Promising Preclinical Data at AACR
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

On April 28, 2025, Arvinas presented preclinical data at the AACR annual meeting in Chicago, showcasing the investigational PROTAC BCL6 degrader, ARV-393. The studies demonstrated synergistic antitumor activity and complete tumor regressions when combined with standard chemotherapy, biologics, and investigational small molecule inhibitors in models of high-grade B-cell lymphoma and aggressive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. These findings highlight the potential for ARV-393 in combination therapies for lymphoma, supporting further evaluation in clinical settings.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Arvinas Holding Company Unveils Promising ARV-102 Trial Results
Positive
Apr 4, 2025

On April 4, 2025, Arvinas, Inc. presented promising data from the first-in-human clinical trial of ARV-102, an investigational PROTAC LRRK2 degrader, at the 2025 International Conference on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s Diseases in Vienna. The Phase 1 trial demonstrated ARV-102’s ability to penetrate the blood-brain barrier and significantly degrade LRRK2 protein in both central and peripheral systems, with a favorable safety profile. These findings support further evaluation of ARV-102 in treating neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson’s disease, with a Phase 1 trial in patients already initiated.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Arvinas and Pfizer Announce Positive Phase 3 Trial Results
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

On March 11, 2025, Arvinas, Inc. and Pfizer announced positive results from the Phase 3 VERITAC-2 clinical trial, which evaluated vepdegestrant monotherapy against fulvestrant in patients with ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer. The trial met its primary endpoint in the ESR1m population, showing significant improvement in progression-free survival compared to fulvestrant, although it did not achieve statistical significance in the intent-to-treat population. Vepdegestrant was well tolerated, and the trial will continue to assess overall survival as a secondary endpoint. These results may support future regulatory filings and represent a potential advancement in treatment options for patients with advanced breast cancer.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.