Arvinas Holding Company (ARVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $856.44M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 770.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 430
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 63,961,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 896,176
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 770,422
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.93
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.79
• 1Y Price Target: $15.90
• Price Target Upside: 19.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $90.47M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▼(-5.80% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

ARVN scores middling primarily due to weak financial performance (ongoing losses, significant cash burn, and 2025 gross profit volatility) despite low leverage. The earnings call adds support with credible 2026 clinical catalysts and cost control, but the steep cash decline and revenue drop elevate risk. Technicals are neutral-to-soft, and valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Proprietary PROTAC pipeline with multiple clinical programs

Arvinas’ PROTAC platform supports multiple clinical-stage assets across oncology and neurology, creating diversified development optionality. Multiple 2026 readouts spread technical risk and can de-risk the portfolio over months, improving chances for partnerships or regulatory paths and sustaining strategic value.

Target-level differentiation and early biomarker signals

Clear target engagement and preclinical potency (LRRK2 biomarker reductions, potent KRAS degraders, early ARV-393 responses and combo tumor inhibition) suggest scientific differentiation. These durable biological signals increase the probability of clinical success and make the programs more attractive to partners and payers long-term.

Low financial leverage and capitalization flexibility

Minimal debt provides structural financial flexibility to fund R&D, pursue partner deals, or access capital without immediate solvency pressure. Even with recent equity/asset declines, low leverage reduces bankruptcy risk and preserves options for strategic maneuvers across the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sustained high cash burn and negative operating cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow reflects ongoing R&D intensity and structural cash consumption. This necessitates recurring financing or material partnering, increasing dilution and execution risk. Over 2–6 months, cash runway sensitivity can constrain program timing and strategic choices.

Profitability volatility and sharp revenue deterioration

A negative gross profit and steep quarterly revenue decline indicate volatile revenue recognition and one-time charges that impair margin predictability. This weakens free-cash-flow prospects and undermines confidence in sustainable commercial revenue, complicating long-term planning and partner negotiations.

Dependence on partnerships and competitive clinical landscapes

Critical late-stage commercialization and milestone outcomes hinge on partner selection and competitive differentiation. In crowded areas like KRAS and oncology, failing to clear efficacy benchmarks or secure strong partners would materially limit commercial upside and force costly solo commercialization or suboptimal licensing.

Arvinas Holding Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. Its lead product candidates include Bavdegalutamide, a proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) protein degrader that is in phase I clinical trial targeting the androgen receptor (AR) protein for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC); ARV-471, a PROTAC protein degrader targeting the estrogen receptor protein for the treatment of patients with metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer; and ARV-766 an investigational orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degrader for the treatment of men with mCRPC. The company has collaborations with Pfizer Inc., Genentech, Inc., F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., and Bayer AG. Arvinas, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

Arvinas generates revenue primarily through collaborations and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies, which may include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future product sales. The company engages in strategic alliances to co-develop its drug candidates, which allows it to share the financial burden of research and development while also gaining access to additional resources and expertise. Additionally, Arvinas may receive funding from government grants and other non-dilutive sources to support its research initiatives. As its clinical programs advance and potentially lead to new drug approvals, the company aims to monetize these assets through commercialization efforts or further partnerships.

Arvinas Holding Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured by ongoing losses and heavy cash burn (2025 operating cash flow about -$273.8M; free cash flow about -$275.7M) and an unusual negative gross profit in 2025. Offsetting this is a low-debt balance sheet (2025 total debt about $8.5M vs equity about $433.9M), though the equity/asset base has declined versus prior years.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled sharply versus earlier years (2025: $262.6M vs 2023: $78.5M), but momentum weakened with 2025 annual revenue down ~15.9% year over year. Profitability remains the core issue: the company is still loss-making (2025 net loss: ~$80.8M; 2024 net loss: ~$198.9M) with negative operating profitability, despite a material improvement in losses from 2023–2024. 2025 shows an unusual negative gross profit (gross profit margin ~-152%), which is a notable quality/volatility flag and weighs on the score.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet leverage is very low, with minimal debt (2025 total debt: ~$8.5M) relative to equity (2025 equity: ~$433.9M), supporting financial flexibility. However, equity and assets have declined from prior years (equity down from ~$660.0M in 2023; assets down from ~$1.30B in 2023), and returns remain negative due to ongoing losses (2025 return on equity ~-18.6%). Overall: strong capitalization with limited balance-sheet risk, but weakening capital base and continued losses are the key offsets.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is pressured with consistently negative operating cash flow in recent years (2025: ~-$273.8M; 2024: ~-$259.3M; 2023: ~-$347.8M) and similarly negative free cash flow (2025: ~-$275.7M), indicating ongoing cash burn. Free cash flow also deteriorated in 2025 (down ~16.3% year over year). While free cash flow broadly tracks net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), the absolute level of burn and negative operating cash flow versus net income signal continued funding needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	262.60M	263.40M	78.50M	131.40M	53.60M
Gross Profit	257.40M	263.40M	78.50M	131.40M	53.60M
EBITDA	-75.30M	-243.60M	-394.80M	-255.00M	-182.40M
Net Income	-80.80M	-198.90M	-367.30M	-282.50M	-191.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	717.90M	1.09B	1.30B	1.27B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	685.40M	1.04B	1.26B	1.21B	1.50B
Total Debt	8.50M	9.70M	3.20M	5.50M	5.00M
Total Liabilities	284.00M	529.70M	644.60M	703.90M	799.90M
Stockholders Equity	433.90M	561.70M	660.00M	564.90M	781.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-275.70M	-261.10M	-350.70M	-280.30M	554.70M
Operating Cash Flow	-273.80M	-259.30M	-347.80M	-273.50M	559.40M
Investing Cash Flow	407.60M	34.70M	203.50M	242.80M	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-91.40M	7.90M	374.70M	4.70M	278.60M

Arvinas Holding Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARVN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.82, above the 50-day MA of 12.45, and above the 200-day MA of 9.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARVN.

Arvinas Holding Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMPX	58 Neutral	$1.01B	-12.41	-37.82%	―	-100.00%	-28.79%
OLMA	56 Neutral	$1.89B	-13.26	-59.22%	―	―	17.23%
BCAX	56 Neutral	$1.09B	-7.89	-26.64%	―	―	-103.95%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ARVN	50 Neutral	$856.44M	-11.01	-16.23%	―	―	―
ANAB	49 Neutral	$1.52B	-19.48	-308.02%	―	196.42%	53.92%
MGTX	47 Neutral	$610.12M	-3.59	-611.42%	―	96.83%	-61.92%

Arvinas Holding Company Corporate Events

Arvinas Announces Leadership Transition and New CEO Appointment

On February 10, 2026, Arvinas president, CEO and board chair John Houston, Ph.D., notified the company he would resign from those roles effective February 12, 2026, while remaining on the board and transitioning to a consulting position through March 1, 2027. On February 11, 2026, the board named lead independent director Briggs Morrison, M.D., as chair and appointed long‑time executive Randy Teel, Ph.D., as president, CEO, principal executive officer and director, under an amended employment agreement that sets his compensation, equity grants and detailed severance protections, including enhanced benefits and accelerated vesting in the event of a qualifying termination following a change in control.

The consulting agreement with Dr. Houston provides for a lump‑sum COBRA‑related payment, a cash amount equivalent to his 2025 bonus had he remained CEO, additional hourly fees beyond a baseline level of consulting hours and continued equity vesting. The leadership transition concentrates strategic and operational authority with Dr. Teel, who has held multiple senior roles at Arvinas since 2018, while preserving continuity and access to Dr. Houston’s expertise, a combination that may help stabilize governance and signal longer‑term planning to shareholders and employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARVN) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arvinas Holding Company stock, see the ARVN Stock Forecast page.

Arvinas Reveals Promising Preclinical Data for ARV-393

On December 6, 2025, Arvinas, Inc. announced preclinical data for ARV-393, a PROTAC BCL6 degrader, in combination with glofitamab, a CD20×CD3 bispecific antibody, at the 67th American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting. The data demonstrated that the combination significantly enhanced tumor growth inhibition and increased tumor regression rates in a high-grade B-cell lymphoma model compared to either agent alone. These findings suggest mechanistic synergies between ARV-393 and T-cell engagement, supporting the initiation of a Phase 1 clinical trial in 2026 to explore this combination as a chemotherapy-free treatment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARVN) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arvinas Holding Company stock, see the ARVN Stock Forecast page.