Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)
OTHER OTC:DLAKY
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Deutsche Lufthansa AG
(OTC:DLAKY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(20.63% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/12/26
The score is held back mainly by weakening recent financial momentum (margin compression and negative 2025 free cash flow) and bearish technicals. These are partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield) and management’s 2026 improvement outlook, though guidance is tempered by higher fuel/geopolitical and labor-related uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Strong MRO growth
Lufthansa Technik's double-digit revenue growth and outsized third‑party expansion show a structurally diversified, higher‑margin services business. Aftermarket MRO revenues are less correlated with passenger cycles, providing stable cashflows and margin support across business cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow trend
FCF turning clearly negative in 2025 reflects heavy capex and weaker cash conversion, reducing internal funding for growth and deleveraging. Persistent negative FCF raises reliance on external liquidity, limits cushion for shocks, and can pressure balance‑sheet flexibility over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong MRO growth
Lufthansa Technik's double-digit revenue growth and outsized third‑party expansion show a structurally diversified, higher‑margin services business. Aftermarket MRO revenues are less correlated with passenger cycles, providing stable cashflows and margin support across business cycles.
Read all positive factors
Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.98B
Dividend Yield3.41%
Average Volume (3M)6.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth8.52%
EPS Growth96.29%
CountryUS
Employees102,574
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding1,199,282,800
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume6,024
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio-14.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.56Price Target Upside39.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$48.94B
Deutsche Lufthansa AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates as an aviation company in Germany and internationally. The company's Network Airlines segment offers passenger services. Its Eurowings segment provides passenger services through a route network of more than 100 dest...
How the Company Makes Money
Lufthansa primarily makes money by selling air transportation and aviation-related services across multiple business lines. Passenger airlines generate revenue mainly from ticket sales (economy/premium cabins and business/first class), plus ancill...
Deutsche Lufthansa AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents meaningful operational and financial progress: record revenues, improved adjusted EBIT and free cash flow, stronger liquidity and clear momentum across turnaround initiatives, ancillaries, cargo and MRO growth. Management also outlined concrete transformation levers (One IT, fleet renewal, productivity) with explicit targets. However, near-term risks have risen materially due to geopolitical disruption in the Middle East, a sharp short-term jet fuel/jet-crack spike, cost inflation, tariff and FX headwinds and ongoing labor negotiations. Management believes the positives and hedging/operational flexibility give it the ability to increase 2026 adjusted EBIT, but the range of uncertainty has widened and outcomes depend on the duration and magnitude of recent shocks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Improved Profitability
Group revenue reached EUR 39.6 billion (+5.4% YoY). Adjusted EBIT increased by EUR 350 million to EUR 1.96 billion, delivering an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.9%.
Negative Updates
Fuel Price Spike and Jet Crack Volatility
Following the Middle East events, jet fuel moves imply ~20–25% higher fuel cost for March–April versus the company’s prior EUR 7.2bn fuel estimate; jet crack spiked materially and liquidity in crack markets is low. Hedging does not fully cover the crack component, creating short-term cost risk.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Improved Profitability
Group revenue reached EUR 39.6 billion (+5.4% YoY). Adjusted EBIT increased by EUR 350 million to EUR 1.96 billion, delivering an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026: the Group plans around 4% capacity growth (intercontinental mid‑ to high‑single digits, continental broadly flat), expects adjusted EBIT to be “significantly above” 2025’s adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.96bn (2025 adjusted EBIT margin 4.9%) and targets adjusted free cash flow of about EUR 0.9bn (vs EUR 1.2bn in 2025); net CapEx is guided at ~EUR 2.9bn to fund up to 45 aircraft deliveries (the largest single‑year fleet expansion, ~27 widebodies), liquidity was EUR 10.7bn at year‑end 2025 and is expected to return to the EUR 8–10bn target corridor by end‑2026, financial net debt was EUR 6.4bn with leverage improving to 1.8x. Fuel: 2026 fuel bill is estimated at ~EUR 7.2bn (EUR 7.0bn fossil + EUR 0.2bn mandatory SAF), with ~82% of Passenger Airlines’ fuel needs hedged for the remainder of 2026; recent market moves imply a near‑term 20–25% higher fuel cost for March–April versus the base case and management estimates ~EUR 5m per week impact from current Middle East cancellations (Middle East capacity ~3% in Q1 vs ~2% in 2025). Cost and transformation: Lufthansa Airlines ex‑fuel CASK is expected to increase by no more than half the annual rate of inflation in 2026, the turnaround program aims for ~EUR 1.5bn of measures by end‑2026 (EUR 2.5bn by 2028), Allegris currently shows ~12% RASK uplift and ancillaries were +15% in 2025, One IT delivered >EUR 50m in 2025 and targets ~EUR 200m of annual sustainable savings by 2030.Deutsche Lufthansa AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 38.03B | 37.58B | 35.48B | 32.77B | 16.81B |
| Gross Profit | 3.63B | 4.83B | 7.43B | 4.62B | -3.00M |
| EBITDA | 3.07B | 4.66B | 5.33B | 3.73B | 96.00M |
| Net Income | 1.29B | 1.38B | 1.67B | 791.00M | -2.19B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 49.40B | 47.05B | 45.32B | 43.34B | 42.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.14B | 8.49B | 8.27B | 8.30B | 7.60B |
| Total Debt | 14.55B | 14.23B | 13.95B | 15.17B | 16.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.69B | 35.46B | 35.61B | 34.86B | 38.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.64B | 11.54B | 9.66B | 8.40B | 4.45B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -707.91M | -6.00M | 895.00M | 2.66B | -700.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.59B | 3.89B | 4.95B | 5.17B | 618.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.37B | -2.33B | -2.98B | -3.44B | -3.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -816.45M | -1.45B | -2.07B | -2.27B | 2.87B |
Deutsche Lufthansa AG Technical Analysis
Negative
8.29
Price Trends
9.91
Negative
9.76
Negative
9.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.45
Positive
34.61
Neutral
>-0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLAKY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.90, below the 50-day MA of 9.91, and below the 200-day MA of 9.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of >-0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DLAKY.
Deutsche Lufthansa AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $28.94B | 269.96 | 27.85% | 1.37% | 14.75% | 71.73% | |
71 Outperform | $29.78B | 10.91 | 24.13% | ― | 4.24% | 20.29% | |
69 Neutral | $43.42B | 8.99 | 27.63% | 0.96% | 4.33% | -1.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $9.98B | 10.26 | 12.23% | 3.41% | 8.52% | 96.29% | |
54 Neutral | $18.46B | 50.61 | 5.33% | 1.73% | 0.65% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $7.09B | 25.57 | -2.76% | ― | 1.27% | 118.64% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DLAKY
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
8.29
1.28
18.24%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
66.48
23.64
55.17%
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
57.80
15.28
35.92%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
37.57
6.34
20.30%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
92.07
20.70
29.00%
AAL
American Airlines
10.74
0.15
1.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.