DHL Group (DHLGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $61.19B
• Dividend Yield: 3.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 54.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 2.62%
• EPS Growth: 14.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 580,580
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.86
• Shares Outstanding: 1,150,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 68,648
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 54,047
• PEG Ratio: -2.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.29
• 1Y Price Target: $46.56
• Price Target Upside: 0.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $99.12B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(31.92% Upside)

DHL Group's overall stock score reflects its solid financial performance and strong technical indicators. The company's effective cost management and strategic initiatives, as discussed in the earnings call, further enhance its position. While valuation is reasonable, ongoing challenges in trade policies and volume declines need monitoring.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow supports operational and strategic initiatives, ensuring financial stability and enabling continued investment in growth.

Cost Management

Effective cost management enhances profitability and competitive positioning, allowing for better margin sustainability over time.

Supply Chain Growth

Strong performance in the Supply Chain division indicates robust demand and potential for sustained revenue growth in logistics services.

Negative Factors

U.S. Trade Policy Impact

Changes in U.S. trade policy can disrupt volume and revenue, posing challenges to maintaining growth in key markets.

Volume Declines

Declining volumes in key segments may pressure revenue and profitability, requiring strategic adjustments to mitigate impact.

Flat European Market

Stagnation in the European market limits growth opportunities, necessitating diversification and innovation to drive future performance.

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services, as well as value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and non-time definite international cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers mail communication, physical and hybrid letters, and goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

DHL Group generates revenue primarily through its various logistics and transportation services. The company's key revenue streams include express parcel delivery services, freight forwarding, and contract logistics. The Express division, which provides time-sensitive international and domestic shipping services, is a significant contributor to the company's income. Additionally, DHL's Freight division, which handles air, ocean, and road freight services, plays a crucial role in its revenue model. The Supply Chain segment offers customized logistics solutions and manages complex supply chains for businesses, further enhancing revenue. Partnerships with major corporations and eCommerce platforms also contribute to DHL's earnings, as they rely on the company's logistics expertise to fulfill their shipping needs. The growing demand for eCommerce and online shopping has positively impacted DHL's revenue, as it continues to expand its capabilities in this sector.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

DHL Group demonstrates solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The balance sheet shows a moderate level of leverage, which could be optimized further. Cash flow generation is robust, supporting the company's operational and strategic initiatives. While there are areas for improvement, particularly in debt management, the company is well-positioned in the logistics industry.

Income Statement

DHL Group's income statement shows a stable growth trajectory with a 3.47% revenue growth in the TTM period. The gross profit margin is healthy at 16.18%, and the net profit margin is 4.24%, indicating solid profitability. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased from previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 7.64% and 13.46%, respectively, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a moderate level of leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.22, which is slightly higher than the previous year. The return on equity is robust at 15.77%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 31.31%, suggesting a balanced capital structure, though there is room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Cash Flow

DHL Group's cash flow statement highlights a strong free cash flow growth of 11.93% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.70, both of which suggest efficient cash flow management and the ability to cover net income with cash flows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	87.45B	84.77B	81.76B	94.44B	81.75B	66.81B
Gross Profit	11.18B	13.93B	14.21B	16.55B	15.44B	11.77B
EBITDA	10.58B	7.57B	10.81B	12.73B	11.69B	8.54B
Net Income	3.68B	3.33B	3.68B	5.36B	5.05B	2.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	80.78B	69.88B	66.81B	68.28B	63.59B	55.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.20B	2.19B	2.08B	3.19B	4.71B	5.80B
Total Debt	30.88B	24.21B	20.83B	20.22B	19.02B	18.35B
Total Liabilities	55.13B	45.66B	43.92B	44.58B	44.09B	41.23B
Stockholders Equity	25.31B	23.79B	22.48B	23.24B	19.04B	13.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.87B	5.79B	5.88B	7.05B	6.26B	4.78B
Operating Cash Flow	9.84B	8.72B	9.26B	10.96B	9.99B	7.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.27B	-2.39B	-2.18B	-3.18B	-4.82B	-3.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.49B	-6.35B	-6.90B	-7.41B	-6.22B	-2.25B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 46.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DHLGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.27, below the 50-day MA of 52.80, and below the 200-day MA of 46.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DHLGY.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	80 Outperform	$21.74B	26.41	36.47%	1.02%	12.54%	19.59%
FDX	79 Outperform	$73.72B	17.30	15.87%	1.94%	3.09%	14.94%
DHLGY	76 Outperform	$61.19B	16.28	15.57%	3.81%	2.62%	14.95%
ZTO	73 Outperform	$17.17B	15.08	13.83%	2.98%	12.89%	3.12%
UPS	72 Outperform	$91.12B	16.59	33.67%	6.55%	-1.25%	-2.25%
XPO	70 Outperform	$17.63B	53.97	19.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%