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Dhl Group (DHLGY)
OTHER OTC:DHLGY
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DHL Group
(OTC:DHLGY)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$61.00
▲(31.92% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/18/25
DHL Group's overall stock score reflects its solid financial performance and strong technical indicators. The company's effective cost management and strategic initiatives, as discussed in the earnings call, further enhance its position. While valuation is reasonable, ongoing challenges in trade policies and volume declines need monitoring.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow supports operational and strategic initiatives, ensuring financial stability and enabling continued investment in growth.
Cost Management
Effective cost management enhances profitability and competitive positioning, allowing for better margin sustainability over time.
Supply Chain Growth
Strong performance in the Supply Chain division indicates robust demand and potential for sustained revenue growth in logistics services.
Negative Factors
U.S. Trade Policy Impact
Changes in U.S. trade policy can disrupt volume and revenue, posing challenges to maintaining growth in key markets.
Volume Declines
Declining volumes in key segments may pressure revenue and profitability, requiring strategic adjustments to mitigate impact.
Flat European Market
Stagnation in the European market limits growth opportunities, necessitating diversification and innovation to drive future performance.
DHL Group (DHLGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$61.66B
Dividend Yield3.81%
Average Volume (3M)493.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth2.62%
EPS Growth14.95%
CountryUS
Employees580,580
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.08
Shares Outstanding1,150,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume133,190
30 Day Avg. Volume493,742
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio6.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.39
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$99.18B
DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionDeutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services, as well as value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and non-time definite international cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers mail communication, physical and hybrid letters, and goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyDHL Group generates revenue primarily through its various logistics and transportation services. The company's key revenue streams include express parcel delivery services, freight forwarding, and contract logistics. The Express division, which provides time-sensitive international and domestic shipping services, is a significant contributor to the company's income. Additionally, DHL's Freight division, which handles air, ocean, and road freight services, plays a crucial role in its revenue model. The Supply Chain segment offers customized logistics solutions and manages complex supply chains for businesses, further enhancing revenue. Partnerships with major corporations and eCommerce platforms also contribute to DHL's earnings, as they rely on the company's logistics expertise to fulfill their shipping needs. The growing demand for eCommerce and online shopping has positively impacted DHL's revenue, as it continues to expand its capabilities in this sector.
DHL Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized robust delivery against guidance, solid cash generation, resumed shareholder returns, and clear execution on structural cost programs and technology investments. These positive outcomes outweigh the noted challenges—notably a sharp decline in weight on U.S. Express lanes, ocean freight headwinds, and ongoing macro/geopolitical volatility. Management remains cautious but confident, providing above‑current‑year EBIT guidance and targeted cost actions to offset near‑term headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Delivered on Guidance with Strong Profitability
Group EBIT increased to EUR 6.2 billion for FY2025 (reported EBIT up 3.7% YoY; adjusted operating profit up 7.1% YoY to EUR 6.2 billion), demonstrating delivery against guidance despite a volatile macro environment.
Earnings Per Share and ROIC Improvement
Reported earnings per share rose 8% year‑on‑year; group ROIC improved by 20 basis points, signaling improved capital efficiency and shareholder value creation.
Strong Cash Generation and Capital Return
Free cash flow (excluding M&A) came in ahead of target at EUR 3.2 billion; net CapEx ~EUR 3 billion and net M&A ~EUR 1 billion for the year. Management reiterated dividend resumption and a remaining EUR 1.5 billion of share buybacks.
Fit for Growth Cost Savings Ahead of Plan
Fit for Growth delivered approximately EUR 600 million of gross structural cost savings in 2025 (achieved earlier than initially expected), providing momentum toward the stated target and structural efficiency gains across aviation, ground operations and support functions.
Operational Momentum in Key Divisions
DHL Express reported its sixth consecutive quarter of EBIT growth (adjusted for nonrecurring items). DHL Supply Chain delivered top‑ and bottom‑line growth and contributed to a 7% operating EBIT increase for the full year, supported by strong new contract signings and automation/digitalization benefits.
Nonfinancial and ESG Progress
Employee engagement score reached 82; realized decarbonization of 2.1 million tonnes (slightly above target); cybersecurity rating at 780, described as top of peer range.
Concrete AI and Technology Deployment Plans
Management outlined targeted AI deployments with measurable use cases (customs, customer service, vehicle maintenance, 'delivery buddy' on hand scanners), plus continued investment in robotics and automation to drive efficiency and service improvement at industrial scale.
Steady 2026 Financial Guidance
Guidance for 2026: group EBIT in excess of EUR 6.2 billion, free cash flow around/exceeding EUR 3.0 billion, gross CapEx of ~3.0–3.3% of revenue, and a normalized tax rate around 30%.
Negative Updates
Significant Weight Decline on U.S. Lanes for Express
Express experienced a large decline in weight per day on U.S. destination lanes, cited as approximately -26% for the full year (impact linked to changes in U.S. tariff policy), reflecting ongoing demand softness in key trade lanes.
Exposure to Volatile Air/Ocean Freight Conditions
DHL Forwarding Freight faced known market headwinds, particularly in ocean freight. Management highlighted ongoing structural improvement potential but noted vulnerability to regional disruptions (e.g., Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz) and related capacity shifts.
Residual Nonrecurring Charges and Need for Further Savings
2025 included a series of nonrecurring items (costs of change, M&A effects). While Fit for Growth delivered ~EUR 600 million in 2025, management expects roughly EUR 400 million of additional benefits required in 2026 to hit the broader savings objective.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Management stressed a heterogeneous and volatile operating environment into 2026 (currency headwinds, tariff changes, de‑minimis abolition, and ongoing Middle East disruptions) that requires continued close steering of costs, yield and CapEx.
Reported Growth Lower Than Adjusted Metrics
While adjusted operating profit rose ~7.1% YoY, reported EBIT growth was more modest at 3.7% YoY, reflecting the impact of nonrecurring items and illustrating the difference between headline and underlying performance.
Near‑term Demand Uncertainty in U.S. Imports and TDI Trends
U.S. TDI import trends remained weak through December and early 2026 with limited early evidence of improvement following policy rulings; management said it is too soon to see definitive effects.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to group EBIT in excess of €6.2bn, free cash flow around/above €3.0bn (2025 FCF ex‑M&A €3.2bn), gross CapEx of 3.0–3.3% (net CapEx ~€3bn in 2025) and an effective tax rate of ~30%, with the mid‑term outlook unchanged; they also have €1.5bn of share buybacks remaining and plan a gradual dividend increase within their payout corridor. Management expects roughly €400m of Fit‑for‑Growth benefit to fall into 2026 after achieving ~€600m in 2025 (2025 reported EBIT €6.2bn, EPS +8% YoY, ROIC +20bps), and said cost‑of‑change should revert to normal run‑rate.DHL Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
DHL Group demonstrates solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The balance sheet shows a moderate level of leverage, which could be optimized further. Cash flow generation is robust, supporting the company's operational and strategic initiatives. While there are areas for improvement, particularly in debt management, the company is well-positioned in the logistics industry.Income Statement
DHL Group's income statement shows a stable growth trajectory with a 3.47% revenue growth in the TTM period. The gross profit margin is healthy at 16.18%, and the net profit margin is 4.24%, indicating solid profitability. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased from previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 7.64% and 13.46%, respectively, reflecting efficient operational management.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a moderate level of leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.22, which is slightly higher than the previous year. The return on equity is robust at 15.77%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 31.31%, suggesting a balanced capital structure, though there is room for improvement in reducing debt levels.70
Positive
Cash Flow
DHL Group's cash flow statement highlights a strong free cash flow growth of 11.93% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.70, both of which suggest efficient cash flow management and the ability to cover net income with cash flows.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 84.01B | 84.77B | 81.76B | 94.44B | 81.75B | 66.81B |
| Gross Profit | 10.81B | 13.93B | 14.21B | 16.55B | 15.44B | 11.77B |
| EBITDA | 10.11B | 7.57B | 10.81B | 12.73B | 11.69B | 8.54B |
| Net Income | 3.54B | 3.33B | 3.68B | 5.36B | 5.05B | 2.98B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 68.97B | 69.88B | 66.81B | 68.28B | 63.59B | 55.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.44B | 2.19B | 2.08B | 3.19B | 4.71B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 26.36B | 24.21B | 20.83B | 20.22B | 19.02B | 18.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 47.06B | 45.66B | 43.92B | 44.58B | 44.09B | 41.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.61B | 23.79B | 22.48B | 23.24B | 19.04B | 13.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.56B | 5.79B | 5.88B | 7.05B | 6.26B | 4.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.42B | 8.72B | 9.26B | 10.96B | 9.99B | 7.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.12B | -2.39B | -2.18B | -3.18B | -4.82B | -3.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.29B | -6.35B | -6.90B | -7.41B | -6.22B | -2.25B |
DHL Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
46.24
Price Trends
56.63
Negative
53.06
Positive
49.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
42.41
Neutral
25.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DHLGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.41, below the 50-day MA of 56.63, and below the 200-day MA of 49.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DHLGY.
DHL Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $61.66B | 12.82 | 15.56% | 3.81% | 2.62% | 14.95% | |
73 Outperform | $89.94B | 17.37 | 15.87% | 1.94% | 3.09% | 14.94% | |
73 Outperform | $18.18B | 10.88 | 13.83% | 2.98% | 12.89% | 3.12% | |
66 Neutral | $19.76B | 24.87 | 35.40% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
66 Neutral | $93.83B | 11.75 | 33.83% | 6.55% | -1.25% | -2.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $25.12B | 50.75 | 18.26% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DHLGY
DHL Group
52.99
7.44
16.34%
EXPD
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146.72
27.43
23.00%
XPO
XPO
206.21
95.15
85.67%
FDX
FedEx
373.35
129.33
53.00%
UPS
United Parcel
104.07
-8.72
-7.73%
ZTO
ZTO Express
22.41
2.60
13.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.