Dhl Group (DHLGY)
OTHER OTC:DHLGY
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DHL Group
(OTC:DHLGY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-28.63% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial footing and cash generation despite a soft revenue trend, supported by constructive technical momentum. Valuation adds upside via a high dividend yield and moderate P/E, while the earnings call reinforces confidence through steady EBIT/FCF guidance and ongoing cost savings, tempered by U.S. lane demand weakness and broader macro/geopolitical uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
High TTM operating cash flow (~€9.0bn) and free cash flow (~€6.2bn) indicate durable internal funding. Strong cash conversion (FCF ~69% of net income TTM) underpins sustained CapEx funding, dividends and buybacks, and provides a buffer to weather cyclical slowdowns while financing strategic automation and network investments.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction trend
A ~6% TTM revenue decline signals persistent top-line pressure that can limit operating leverage and make margin recovery reliant on cost programs. If volume or yield headwinds persist, growth-dependent investments and long-term contract wins must offset weaker organic demand to restore historical profit levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
High TTM operating cash flow (~€9.0bn) and free cash flow (~€6.2bn) indicate durable internal funding. Strong cash conversion (FCF ~69% of net income TTM) underpins sustained CapEx funding, dividends and buybacks, and provides a buffer to weather cyclical slowdowns while financing strategic automation and network investments.
Read all positive factors
DHL Group (DHLGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$62.59B
Dividend Yield3.81%
Average Volume (3M)132.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth5.10%
EPS Growth16.57%
CountryUS
Employees580,580
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.57
Shares Outstanding2,300,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume161,468
30 Day Avg. Volume132,296
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.49
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio9.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.85
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$99.19B
DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eComm...
How the Company Makes Money
DHL Group primarily makes money by charging customers for transportation and logistics services across multiple business lines. (1) Express: Generates revenue from time-definite domestic and international delivery of documents and parcels, priced ...
DHL Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized robust delivery against guidance, solid cash generation, resumed shareholder returns, and clear execution on structural cost programs and technology investments. These positive outcomes outweigh the noted challenges—notably a sharp decline in weight on U.S. Express lanes, ocean freight headwinds, and ongoing macro/geopolitical volatility. Management remains cautious but confident, providing above‑current‑year EBIT guidance and targeted cost actions to offset near‑term headwinds.Positive Updates
Delivered on Guidance with Strong Profitability
Group EBIT increased to EUR 6.2 billion for FY2025 (reported EBIT up 3.7% YoY; adjusted operating profit up 7.1% YoY to EUR 6.2 billion), demonstrating delivery against guidance despite a volatile macro environment.
Negative Updates
Significant Weight Decline on U.S. Lanes for Express
Express experienced a large decline in weight per day on U.S. destination lanes, cited as approximately -26% for the full year (impact linked to changes in U.S. tariff policy), reflecting ongoing demand softness in key trade lanes.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Delivered on Guidance with Strong Profitability
Group EBIT increased to EUR 6.2 billion for FY2025 (reported EBIT up 3.7% YoY; adjusted operating profit up 7.1% YoY to EUR 6.2 billion), demonstrating delivery against guidance despite a volatile macro environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to group EBIT in excess of €6.2bn, free cash flow around/above €3.0bn (2025 FCF ex‑M&A €3.2bn), gross CapEx of 3.0–3.3% (net CapEx ~€3bn in 2025) and an effective tax rate of ~30%, with the mid‑term outlook unchanged; they also have €1.5bn of share buybacks remaining and plan a gradual dividend increase within their payout corridor. Management expects roughly €400m of Fit‑for‑Growth benefit to fall into 2026 after achieving ~€600m in 2025 (2025 reported EBIT €6.2bn, EPS +8% YoY, ROIC +20bps), and said cost‑of‑change should revert to normal run‑rate.DHL Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 82.55B | 79.58B | 84.77B | 81.76B | 94.44B | 81.75B |
| Gross Profit | 9.10B | 8.64B | 13.93B | 14.21B | 16.55B | 15.44B |
| EBITDA | 11.32B | 8.52B | 7.57B | 10.81B | 12.73B | 11.69B |
| Net Income | 3.53B | 3.36B | 3.33B | 3.68B | 5.36B | 5.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 74.49B | 74.22B | 69.88B | 66.81B | 68.28B | 63.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.80B | 5.08B | 2.19B | 2.08B | 3.19B | 4.71B |
| Total Debt | 29.09B | 25.44B | 24.21B | 20.83B | 20.22B | 19.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.62B | 51.60B | 45.66B | 43.92B | 44.58B | 44.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.42B | 22.22B | 23.79B | 22.48B | 23.24B | 19.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.20B | 5.39B | 5.79B | 5.88B | 7.05B | 6.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.98B | 8.07B | 8.72B | 9.26B | 10.96B | 9.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.08B | -4.74B | -2.39B | -2.18B | -3.18B | -4.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.71B | -3.35B | -6.35B | -6.90B | -7.41B | -6.22B |
DHL Group Technical Analysis
Positive
46.24
Price Trends
26.77
Positive
27.14
Positive
25.26
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Positive
54.42
Neutral
44.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DHLGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.53, above the 50-day MA of 26.77, and above the 200-day MA of 25.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DHLGY.
DHL Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $17.57B | 11.18 | 14.20% | 2.98% | 15.87% | 1.18% | |
77 Outperform | $20.50B | 20.83 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
72 Outperform | $62.59B | 15.32 | 16.07% | 3.81% | 5.10% | 16.57% | |
71 Outperform | $88.22B | 22.26 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 4.69% | 17.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $81.20B | 24.20 | 33.03% | 6.55% | -2.59% | -9.78% | |
57 Neutral | $23.54B | 56.34 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DHLGY
DHL Group
28.02
6.70
31.43%
EXPD
Expeditors International
158.42
46.32
41.32%
XPO
XPO
210.73
90.10
74.69%
FDX
FedEx
386.84
174.74
82.39%
UPS
United Parcel
98.87
9.19
10.25%
ZTO
ZTO Express
23.22
6.70
40.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.