Dollar General (DG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $29.68B
• Dividend Yield: 1.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.9
• Beta (1Y): -0.06
• Revenue Growth: 4.86%
• EPS Growth: -4.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 194,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.93
• Shares Outstanding: 220,118,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,804,400
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,979,673
• PEG Ratio: 0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.62
• 1Y Price Target: $147.63
• Price Target Upside: 9.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $44.43B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $150.00 ▲(11.23% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong recent sales and cash-flow rebound but still-pressured margins and elevated leverage. The earnings call was constructive with steady guidance and continued margin initiatives, while technicals are currently soft near-term. Valuation is reasonable with a modest dividend, supporting a mid-range overall score.

Positive Factors

Small‑format network & rural market position

Dollar General’s dense small‑format store footprint focused on rural and suburban markets provides durable competitive advantage: convenience, low build costs, and limited direct competition in many trade areas. This supports steady traffic, frequent purchases, and a reliable long‑term growth runway as expansion and remodels compound store productivity.

Improved cash generation and FCF

Material improvement in operating and free cash flow enhances financial flexibility: enables debt paydowns, funds aggressive remodels and unit growth, and supports dividends. Strong FCF generation also creates capacity to resume buybacks or invest in digital and logistics initiatives that lift margins over multiple years.

Margin recovery via shrink, digital & media

Sustained shrink reduction plus digital/delivery momentum and DG Media Network revenue form structural margin drivers. Management’s multi‑year framework targets ~120 bps gross‑margin improvement, implying durable operating leverage as stores are remodeled and media/delivery scale, lifting long‑run profitability if execution continues.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Though improving, elevated leverage (roughly 2.0x equity TTM) constrains strategic flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest costs or weaker cash flow. It limits the pace of share repurchases and heightens refinancing risk if macro conditions tighten, making capital allocation more conservative until leverage falls further.

Compressed profitability vs. historical levels

Margins remain materially compressed versus historical norms, reducing earnings quality and the buffer to absorb inflation, tariff shifts, or wage pressure. Lower operating leverage increases sensitivity of EPS to sales volatility and slows return metrics, making sustainable margin recovery essential to durable value creation.

Capital returns paused in 2026

Management’s decision to exclude share repurchases from 2026 guidance despite strong cash flow signals a cautious capital allocation stance while deleveraging. Paused buybacks limit near‑term shareholder return flexibility and suggest management prioritizes balance‑sheet repair and investment, which may delay EPS accretion from capital returns.

Dollar General Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern United States. It offers consumable products, including paper and cleaning products, such as paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food comprising cereals, pasta, canned soups, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables that include milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, and wine. The company's consumable products also comprise snacks, such as candies, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; health and beauty products, including over-the-counter medicines and personal care products, such as soaps, body washes, shampoos, cosmetics, and dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products. In addition, it offers seasonal products comprising holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, and automotive and home office supplies; and home products that include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, and bed and bath soft goods. Further, the company provides apparel, which comprise casual everyday apparel for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women, and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes, and accessories. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 18,190 stores in 47 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as J.L. Turner & Son, Inc. and changed its name to Dollar General Corporation in 1968. Dollar General Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar General makes money primarily by selling merchandise through its retail stores (and associated sales channels where applicable). Its core revenue stream is product sales, with consumables (everyday essentials such as food, household supplies, and health-and-beauty items) typically driving a substantial portion of sales due to frequent purchase behavior and repeat traffic. The company also generates revenue from higher-margin discretionary categories—such as seasonal goods, home products, and apparel—which can contribute meaningfully to gross profit even if they represent a smaller share of sales than consumables. Dollar General’s earnings model relies on high transaction volume, rapid inventory turnover, and a small-box store format that is designed to keep operating costs and build-out costs relatively low compared with larger big-box retailers. Profitability is supported by merchandising and sourcing strategies including negotiating terms with national brand suppliers, operating an extensive distribution and logistics network to replenish stores efficiently, and selling private-label products (where margins can be higher than comparable branded items). The company’s financial results are also influenced by pricing strategy (everyday low price positioning and promotional activity), product mix (consumables vs. discretionary), store expansion and new store productivity, and cost management across labor, occupancy, distribution, and shrink.

Dollar General Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and cash flow have improved meaningfully in the trailing twelve months, with a notable rebound in operating and free cash flow. However, profitability remains thin versus historical levels (compressed net/EBIT margins), and leverage is still elevated despite improvement—keeping overall financial strength moderate.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is strong versus the prior year (about +44%), but profitability remains thin with a ~3.0% net margin and ~4.5% EBIT margin. Margins have compressed materially versus 2021–2023 levels (when net margin was ~6–8%), though there is a modest rebound from 2025. Overall, growth is solid but earnings quality is pressured by lower margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated: debt is about 2.0x equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improving from the ~2.4–3.2x range in 2023–2025 but still high. Equity has rebuilt recently, helping reduce balance-sheet risk, and return on equity is healthy (~16% TTM), though down meaningfully from earlier peaks due to weaker profitability. The balance sheet is improving, but leverage remains a key constraint.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow rose to ~$4.6B and free cash flow to ~$3.1B, with strong free-cash-flow growth. However, cash conversion vs earnings is not particularly strong (free cash flow is ~65% of net income TTM), and cash flow has been volatile over the last several years (notably weak free cash flow in 2023–2024). Overall, current cash flow momentum is positive but consistency is a watch item.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.72B	40.61B	38.69B	37.84B	34.22B
Gross Profit	13.10B	12.02B	11.72B	11.82B	10.81B
EBITDA	3.25B	2.69B	3.30B	4.05B	3.86B
Net Income	1.51B	1.13B	1.66B	2.42B	2.40B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.96B	31.13B	30.80B	29.08B	26.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.14B	932.58M	537.28M	381.58M	344.83M
Total Debt	15.72B	17.46B	18.09B	17.66B	14.25B
Total Liabilities	22.45B	23.72B	24.05B	23.54B	20.07B
Stockholders Equity	8.51B	7.41B	6.75B	5.54B	6.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.39B	1.69B	691.58M	423.97M	1.80B
Operating Cash Flow	3.63B	3.00B	2.39B	1.98B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-1.31B	-1.69B	-1.56B	-1.07B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.19B	-1.29B	-542.07M	-392.46M	-2.83B

Dollar General Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 134.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 134.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 148.26, below the 50-day MA of 147.11, and above the 200-day MA of 119.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DG.

Dollar General Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIVE	73 Outperform	$11.68B	59.40	16.37%	―	15.78%	14.99%
OLLI	70 Outperform	$6.54B	28.12	13.30%	―	12.58%	7.80%
TGT	63 Neutral	$53.01B	12.93	26.06%	4.79%	-2.16%	-12.66%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KR	62 Neutral	$47.14B	40.33	13.04%	2.15%	-1.77%	-70.83%
DG	57 Neutral	$29.68B	20.87	18.66%	1.88%	4.86%	-4.51%
DLTR	51 Neutral	$22.74B	20.60	34.98%	―	-39.27%	-182.36%

Dollar General Corporate Events

Dollar General Announces Quarterly Dividend and Affirms Outlook

Dollar General announced that on March 11, 2026, its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable on or before April 21, 2026, to shareholders of record as of April 7, 2026. The company also referenced its fiscal 2026 outlook and long-term financial framework, signaling continued capital returns to shareholders while it discusses its guidance and broader strategic plans with investors and analysts.

The most recent analyst rating on (DG) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar General stock, see the DG Stock Forecast page.

Dollar General appoints David Rowland as new chairman

On January 28, 2026, Dollar General announced that longtime director Warren F. Bryant will retire from its board at the end of his current term, concluding with the company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, with the company noting that his departure does not stem from any disagreement. In a concurrent leadership shift, the board appointed current independent director David P. Rowland as chairman effective February 4, 2026, succeeding Michael M. Calbert, who will remain on the board as an independent director, signaling continuity in governance while refreshing the company’s board leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (DG) stock is a Buy with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar General stock, see the DG Stock Forecast page.