tonies SE Class A (DE:TNIE)
XETRA:TNIE
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tonies SE Class A
(XETRA:TNIE)
Select Model
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
€10.50
▲(4.79% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/17/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (profitability turnaround and conservative balance sheet) and a strong earnings call with upbeat FY2026 growth and margin guidance. These positives are tempered by weakened 2025 cash generation, bearish/soft technical signals, and limited valuation support from a negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Installed Base & Engagement
A large, highly engaged installed base creates durable repeat-purchase demand for figurines and content. High weekly engagement and global penetration improve customer lifetime value and recurring revenue visibility, lowering customer acquisition needs as the company scales internationally.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Inconsistent cash conversion undermines the company’s ability to self-fund growth and increases reliance on working-capital management or external financing. Strategic inventory and prior negative OCF periods highlight execution risk in converting strong revenue into sustainable free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Installed Base & Engagement
A large, highly engaged installed base creates durable repeat-purchase demand for figurines and content. High weekly engagement and global penetration improve customer lifetime value and recurring revenue visibility, lowering customer acquisition needs as the company scales internationally.
Read all positive factors
tonies SE Class A (TNIE) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.30B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)88.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)91.0
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth31.17%
EPS Growth-0.17%
CountryDE
Employees561
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding126,847,590
10 Day Avg. Volume125,739
30 Day Avg. Volume88,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-10.92
Price to Book (P/B)3.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio-863.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€14.00Price Target Upside39.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)€778.59M
tonies SE Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
tonies SE develops and markets audio systems for children. It offers Toniebox, a connected audio player for kids that plays stories, songs, and others. It also provides headphones, USB charging station, and storage bags. In addition, it offers hom...
How the Company Makes Money
tonies SE primarily makes money through (1) sales of the Toniebox hardware and related accessories and (2) sales of Tonie audio figurines that deliver the content experience and drive repeat purchases. The Toniebox is typically a one-time purchase...
tonies SE Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 14, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance in FY2025: robust top-line growth across all regions (36% CC), margin expansion (contribution margin 37%, adjusted EBITDA margin 8.6%), successful product and category launches (Toniebox 2, Tonieplay, My First Tonies), major IP and retail partnerships, and expanding international footprint. The primary negatives were one-time/managed issues—strategic inventory build-up causing negative free cash flow, tariff and component cost pressures, and some one-off FX/valuation effects. Management communicated clear mitigation plans and ambitious but measured guidance for 2026 (>20% CC revenue growth to >EUR 760m and adjusted EBITDA margin 9–11%), suggesting confidence in continued profitable scaling. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the manageable lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Group Revenue Growth
Group revenue grew 36% at constant currencies to EUR 630 million in FY2025, beating guidance (>25% CC) and driven by double-digit growth across all regions.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow from Strategic Inventory Build-up
Free cash flow turned negative year-on-year due to an intentional, one-time strategic inventory buildup to support Toniebox 2 launch and three new categories (Tonieplay, My First Tonies, Plush), impacting FY2025 cash conversion.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Revenue Growth
Group revenue grew 36% at constant currencies to EUR 630 million in FY2025, beating guidance (>25% CC) and driven by double-digit growth across all regions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided FY2026 to group revenue growth of >20% in constant currency to above €760m (vs €630m in FY2025, i.e., ~€130m+ incremental revenue), North America revenue growth of >30% cc, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9–11% (up from 8.6% adjusted EBITDA in 2025; group EBITDA ~7.7%), assuming no material deterioration in consumer sentiment or force majeure events; management noted supporting metrics and headwinds including ~11.8m activated Tonieboxes, 1.4m Tonieboxes sold in Q4, 156m Tonies sold cumulative (43m in 2025), Q4 revenue of €313m, category trends (Toniebox revenue +21% cc, figurines & games +43% cc, Accessories & Digital +25%), a 37% contribution margin (up 2.5pp) and €138m cash available (including unused credit lines), while 2025’s strategic inventory build depressed free cash flow but is expected to normalize going into 2026.tonies SE Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 630.35M | 480.55M | 360.95M | 258.28M | 187.97M |
| Gross Profit | 236.46M | 243.51M | 119.44M | 32.71M | 51.16M |
| EBITDA | 48.45M | 29.60M | 16.89M | -14.78M | -227.37M |
| Net Income | 13.11M | 13.08M | -11.81M | -31.66M | -240.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 641.06M | 558.50M | 492.35M | 481.83M | 438.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 87.85M | 86.67M | 59.29M | 54.92M | 75.59M |
| Total Debt | 36.82M | 20.36M | 28.60M | 12.43M | 1.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 284.52M | 212.10M | 167.03M | 147.20M | 156.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 356.54M | 346.39M | 325.32M | 334.64M | 281.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.38M | 30.99M | -4.85M | -88.63M | -41.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.86M | 47.16M | 8.14M | -75.08M | -32.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.17M | -14.11M | -12.91M | -13.55M | -8.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 17.01M | -9.11M | 11.59M | 67.93M | 102.52M |
tonies SE Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
10.02
Price Trends
10.75
Negative
10.43
Negative
8.80
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
44.68
Neutral
16.28
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TNIE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.19, below the 50-day MA of 10.75, and above the 200-day MA of 8.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:TNIE.
tonies SE Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | €86.06M | 9.95 | 11.70% | 4.16% | -0.79% | -11.66% | |
63 Neutral | €253.19M | 7.43 | 42.70% | ― | 1.10% | ― | |
62 Neutral | €1.30B | 90.97 | 8.50% | ― | 31.17% | -0.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
44 Neutral | €7.52M | 20.76 | -1.57% | ― | -7.67% | -107.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:TNIE
tonies SE Class A
10.28
4.62
81.63%
DE:BST
Bastei Luebbe
6.52
-4.38
-40.18%
DE:ULC
United Labels
1.09
-0.48
-30.45%
DE:WEW
Westwing Group AG
13.25
5.51
71.19%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.