tonies SE Class A (DE:TNIE)
XETRA:TNIE
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tonies SE Class A
(XETRA:TNIE)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
€10.50
▲(4.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (growth and profitability with low leverage) and a supportive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed high-growth guidance. Offsetting these positives are weak technical momentum and inconsistent recent cash generation (notably the 2025 drop in operating and free cash flow), with valuation appearing reasonable but not a clear bargain at a ~21 P/E.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth and affirmed guidance
Management’s reiterated FY2026 guidance and Q1 outperformance indicate durable demand and execution. A >20% revenue growth target backed by a 35% cc Q1 carryover supports multi-quarter top-line momentum and provides a clear planning runway for investments and scaling across channels and regions.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent and recently weakened cash generation
Volatile cash conversion undermines the company’s ability to self‑fund growth and absorb cost shocks. The sharp drop in 2025 cash flow versus 2024 suggests working capital or timing issues that could constrain investment or require external financing if negative trends persist through the busy Q4 cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue growth and affirmed guidance
Management’s reiterated FY2026 guidance and Q1 outperformance indicate durable demand and execution. A >20% revenue growth target backed by a 35% cc Q1 carryover supports multi-quarter top-line momentum and provides a clear planning runway for investments and scaling across channels and regions.
Read all positive factors
tonies SE Class A (TNIE) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)88.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.0
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth31.17%
EPS Growth-0.17%
CountryDE
Employees561
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding126,847,590
10 Day Avg. Volume125,739
30 Day Avg. Volume88,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-10.92
Price to Book (P/B)3.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio-863.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€14.50Price Target Upside44.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)€778.54M
tonies SE Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
tonies SE develops and markets audio systems for children. It offers Toniebox, a connected audio player for kids that plays stories, songs, and others. It also provides headphones, USB charging station, and storage bags. In addition, it offers hom...
How the Company Makes Money
tonies SE primarily makes money through (1) sales of the Toniebox hardware and related accessories and (2) sales of Tonie audio figurines that deliver the content experience and drive repeat purchases. The Toniebox is typically a one-time purchase...
tonies SE Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a robust set of operating and financial highlights: strong Q1 revenue growth (35% cc), broad-based regional expansion (DACH +28%, NA +34%, RoW +53%), category leadership and market-share gains, product awards, senior hires and confirmation of full-year guidance (>20% revenue growth to >EUR 760m; adj. EBITDA 9%–11%). The lowlights are largely risk factors and near-term uncertainties — seasonality, tariff/FX pressures, supply-cost volatility, limited H1 margin visibility and some withheld segment detail — but management described clear mitigation actions (inventory positions, sourcing flexibility, shipping routing, capital-structure simplification). Overall, the positive execution, tangible growth metrics and confirmed guidance outweigh the cited risks.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Top-Line Growth
Group revenue of EUR 126 million in Q1 2026, up 35% year-over-year in constant currency, demonstrating carryover momentum from 2025.
Negative Updates
Seasonality and Revenue Concentration
Business remains heavily back-end weighted with ~50% of annual sales in Q4; Q1 is historically the smallest quarter and an early-Easter shift pulled seasonal demand into Q1, limiting the extrapolatability of the strong start.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Top-Line Growth
Group revenue of EUR 126 million in Q1 2026, up 35% year-over-year in constant currency, demonstrating carryover momentum from 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: group revenue growth of more than 20% to above €760m (implying roughly >€130m of incremental revenue), North America growth of >30% in constant currency, and an adjusted EBITDA margin target of 9–11%; this follows a Q1 baseline of €126m (+35% cc) with regional Q1 results of DACH €50m (+28%), North America €48m (+34% cc) and Rest‑of‑World €28m (+53%), Toniebox revenue up over 60% y/y, the tonies category near €100m in Q1 (+30%), accessories & digital +18%, an installed base of ~12.2m activated Tonieboxes and >165m tonies, while noting the business is seasonally back‑loaded (≈50% of revenue in Q4) and the guidance already considers FX, tariff and supply flexibilities.tonies SE Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 630.35M | 480.55M | 360.95M | 258.28M | 187.97M |
| Gross Profit | 236.46M | 243.51M | 119.44M | 32.71M | 51.16M |
| EBITDA | 48.45M | 29.60M | 16.89M | -14.78M | -227.37M |
| Net Income | 13.11M | 13.08M | -11.81M | -31.66M | -240.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 641.06M | 558.50M | 492.35M | 481.83M | 438.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 87.85M | 86.67M | 59.29M | 54.92M | 75.59M |
| Total Debt | 36.82M | 20.36M | 28.60M | 12.43M | 1.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 284.52M | 212.10M | 167.03M | 147.20M | 156.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 356.54M | 346.39M | 325.32M | 334.64M | 281.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.38M | 30.99M | -4.85M | -88.63M | -41.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.86M | 47.16M | 8.14M | -75.08M | -32.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.17M | -14.11M | -12.91M | -13.55M | -8.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 17.01M | -9.11M | 11.59M | 67.93M | 102.52M |
tonies SE Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
10.02
Price Trends
10.23
Positive
10.58
Negative
9.32
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
57.26
Neutral
64.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TNIE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.20, below the 50-day MA of 10.23, and above the 200-day MA of 9.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:TNIE.
tonies SE Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | €91.87M | 9.95 | 11.70% | 4.16% | -0.79% | -11.66% | |
63 Neutral | €1.34B | 20.97 | 3.78% | ― | 31.17% | -0.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | €280.90M | 591.63 | 36.00% | ― | 4.11% | ― | |
44 Neutral | €7.07M | 20.76 | -1.57% | ― | -7.67% | -107.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:TNIE
tonies SE Class A
10.54
4.31
69.18%
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-25.91%
DE:ULC
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DE:WEW
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84.67%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.