tonies SE Class A (DE:TNIE)
XETRA:TNIE
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tonies SE Class A
(XETRA:TNIE)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
€12.00
▲(18.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/21/25
Tonies SE Class A receives a strong overall score driven by robust financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's strong revenue growth and strategic product launches, particularly the Toniebox 2, have been well received, contributing to a positive outlook. However, the high P/E ratio indicates a premium valuation, which may limit upside potential unless earnings growth continues to accelerate. Technical indicators support a bullish trend, though caution is advised as the stock approaches overbought levels.
Positive Factors
Robust Revenue Growth
Sustained double-digit and multi-market revenue growth demonstrates broad demand for Tonies products. Year‑to‑date expansion and strong quarter performance support a durable topline runway, reducing single-market reliance and enabling scale benefits for content, distribution and licensing over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak EBIT Profitability
Operating profitability remains a structural vulnerability: despite strong gross margins, persistent EBIT weakness and a low net margin constrain free cash conversion and limit flexibility for sustained marketing, R&D and international expansion unless operational leverage improves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust Revenue Growth
Sustained double-digit and multi-market revenue growth demonstrates broad demand for Tonies products. Year‑to‑date expansion and strong quarter performance support a durable topline runway, reducing single-market reliance and enabling scale benefits for content, distribution and licensing over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
tonies SE Class A (TNIE) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)88.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth29.34%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryDE
Employees561
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding126,847,590
10 Day Avg. Volume125,739
30 Day Avg. Volume88,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.79
P/FCF Ratio27.83
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€13.50Price Target Upside33.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)€777.94M
tonies SE Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
tonies SE develops and markets audio systems for children. It offers Toniebox, a connected audio player for kids that plays stories, songs, and others. It also provides headphones, USB charging station, and storage bags. In addition, it offers hom...
How the Company Makes Money
tonies SE generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Toniebox audio systems and the accompanying Tonies figures. The Toniebox is sold through various retail channels, including online platforms and physical stores, while the Tonies figure...
tonies SE Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was predominantly positive, highlighting the successful launch and reception of Toniebox 2, significant revenue growth, and strong global expansion. While there were minor criticisms related to product features, these did not significantly detract from the overall positive outlook.Positive Updates
Successful Launch of Toniebox 2
The launch of Toniebox 2 marked a significant innovation since 2016, unlocking new growth potential with new audiences and use cases. The product has been well received, with a 4.6 average rating and high recommendation rates.
Negative Updates
Cable Length Criticism
The short cable length of the Toniebox 2 was criticized by customers. This was due to regulatory requirements for 1+ certification, not cost-saving measures.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Launch of Toniebox 2
The launch of Toniebox 2 marked a significant innovation since 2016, unlocking new growth potential with new audiences and use cases. The product has been well received, with a 4.6 average rating and high recommendation rates.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the third quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of over 52%, contributing to a year-to-date growth of 33% or EUR 322 million at the group level. The CEO highlighted the launch of Toniebox 2 as a significant driver of this growth, particularly noting double-digit growth in the DACH market and 36% growth in North America. In the Rest of World segment, revenue surged by 80% compared to the first nine months of 2024. The company confirmed its full-year guidance, projecting over 25% growth in group revenue to exceed EUR 600 million, with a 6.5% to 8.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. The call emphasized the strategic importance of the Toniebox 2 launch, which has already shown a strong consumer response, with around 40% of initial buyers being upgraders from the previous Toniebox model. Additionally, the company noted its resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges, highlighting sourcing flexibility and a strong pricing strategy as key factors in maintaining profitability.tonies SE Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 510.38M | 480.55M | 360.95M | 258.28M | 187.97M | 134.57M |
| Gross Profit | 269.67M | 243.51M | 119.44M | 32.71M | 51.16M | 40.50M |
| EBITDA | 19.47M | 29.60M | 16.89M | -14.78M | -227.37M | -6.47M |
| Net Income | 27.65M | 13.08M | -11.81M | -31.66M | -240.50M | -16.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 507.89M | 558.50M | 492.35M | 481.83M | 438.03M | 350.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.07M | 86.67M | 59.29M | 54.92M | 75.59M | 9.08M |
| Total Debt | 13.86M | 20.36M | 28.60M | 12.43M | 1.22M | 58.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 169.98M | 212.10M | 167.03M | 147.20M | 156.74M | 151.64M |
| Stockholders Equity | 337.91M | 346.39M | 325.32M | 334.64M | 281.30M | 177.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 44.97M | 30.99M | -4.85M | -88.63M | -41.82M | -4.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.98M | 47.16M | 8.14M | -75.08M | -32.88M | 3.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.80M | -14.11M | -12.91M | -13.55M | -8.94M | -7.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.29M | -9.11M | 11.59M | 67.93M | 102.52M | 6.28M |
tonies SE Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
10.10
Price Trends
10.84
Negative
10.30
Negative
8.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
37.43
Neutral
58.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TNIE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.47, below the 50-day MA of 10.84, and above the 200-day MA of 8.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:TNIE.
tonies SE Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | €1.28B | -149.00 | 8.50% | ― | 29.34% | ― | |
69 Neutral | €83.69M | 9.95 | 11.70% | 4.16% | -1.26% | -11.97% | |
62 Neutral | €257.97M | 7.43 | 42.70% | ― | -0.32% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
44 Neutral | €7.21M | 20.76 | -1.57% | ― | -7.67% | -107.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:TNIE
tonies SE Class A
9.95
4.90
97.03%
DE:BST
Bastei Luebbe
6.44
-4.02
-38.46%
DE:ULC
United Labels
1.04
-0.26
-19.77%
DE:WEW
Westwing Group AG
13.50
5.90
77.63%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.