CoreCivic Inc (CXW)
NYSE:CXW
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CoreCivic
(NYSE:CXW)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(8.64% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/21/26
The score is primarily supported by improving financial results and a constructive earnings call with strong 2026 guidance, ample liquidity, and active share repurchases. This is tempered by rising leverage/variability in financial quality and weaker technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation appears reasonable but not clearly compelling based on the provided P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Federal contract-driven revenue growth (ICE)
A large, rapid federal revenue increase and outsized ICE contribution reflect durable contract demand and scale in CoreCivic’s core business. Contracted federal volumes and per-diem economics provide predictable cash flows and utilization tailwinds over the next several quarters as activations normalize.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage versus prior year
Leverage increased meaningfully year over year, raising sensitivity to refinancing risk and higher interest costs. A more levered capital structure reduces financial flexibility and increases strain if activations or cash conversion slip, making balance-sheet risk a persistent structural constraint.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Federal contract-driven revenue growth (ICE)
A large, rapid federal revenue increase and outsized ICE contribution reflect durable contract demand and scale in CoreCivic’s core business. Contracted federal volumes and per-diem economics provide predictable cash flows and utilization tailwinds over the next several quarters as activations normalize.
Read all positive factors
CoreCivic (CXW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth5.72%
EPS Growth47.75%
CountryUS
Employees11,649
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding97,709,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,739,587
30 Day Avg. Volume1,359,006
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio37.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.50Price Target Upside49.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.56B
CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The company provid...
How the Company Makes Money
CoreCivic makes money primarily by contracting with government agencies to provide capacity and services for incarcerated/detained populations and by monetizing its facility real estate through lease arrangements. Key revenue streams include: (1) ...
CoreCivic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
CoreCivic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operational and financial momentum — strong Q4 outperformance, significant ICE-driven revenue growth, multiple facility reactivations, robust 2026 guidance and ample liquidity — tempered by execution and timing risks: a notable activation delay (Midwest Regional), start-up losses that pressured margins, and concentration risk tied to ICE. On balance the highlights (substantial revenue/profit gains, clear activation pipeline and strong balance sheet actions) outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Financial Outperformance
Adjusted EPS of $0.27 in Q4 2025 vs $0.16 in Q4 2024, up 69%; normalized FFO per share $0.52 vs $0.39, up 33%; adjusted EBITDA $92.5M vs $74.2M, up 25%. Adjusted EPS beat analyst estimates by $0.09 and adjusted EBITDA beat by $9M.
Negative Updates
Midwest Regional Activation Delay and Legal Uncertainty
Midwest Regional Reception Center (1,033 beds) intake remains delayed due to a special use permit dispute; company has filed a lawsuit and an SUP application. Midwest was disclosed as ~ $60M of potential annual revenue and would be upside to 2026 guidance if activated.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Financial Outperformance
Adjusted EPS of $0.27 in Q4 2025 vs $0.16 in Q4 2024, up 69%; normalized FFO per share $0.52 vs $0.39, up 33%; adjusted EBITDA $92.5M vs $74.2M, up 25%. Adjusted EPS beat analyst estimates by $0.09 and adjusted EBITDA beat by $9M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CoreCivic’s 2026 guidance calls for diluted EPS of $1.49–$1.59, FFO per share of $2.54–$2.64 and EBITDA of $437M–$445M (management notes stabilized annual revenue run‑rate of ~$2.5B and an EBITDA run‑rate of ~$450M once recent activations normalize); adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) are forecast at $245M–$259.3M, G&A $160M–$165M, and an annual effective tax rate of 25%–30%. Capital spending is planned at $60M–$70M for maintenance CapEx, $15M for other CapEx, and $35M–$40M for activation/growth CapEx (including $23.5M carryover from 2025); Q1 is modeled seasonally weaker (~$0.04/share headwind vs Q4 from fewer days, utilities and ~75% of annual unemployment taxes), California City and Diamondback are expected to reach profitability in Q1, and the guidance excludes Midwest Regional ramp (Midwest ~ $60M annual revenue) and any unannounced contract awards. Management emphasized prioritizing share repurchases within AFFO, while pointing to supporting liquidity and leverage (net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~2.8x, cash $97.9M, revolver availability/borrowing capacity $311.4M, total liquidity ~$409.3M).CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.21B | 1.96B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 518.65M | 468.29M | 306.89M | 431.54M | 525.55M |
| EBITDA | 348.31M | 287.39M | 296.10M | 378.18M | 306.38M |
| Net Income | 116.50M | 68.87M | 67.59M | 122.32M | -51.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.26B | 2.93B | 3.11B | 3.24B | 3.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 112.45M | 107.49M | 121.84M | 149.40M | 299.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.22B | 1.01B | 1.21B | 1.39B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.85B | 1.44B | 1.63B | 1.81B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.41B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.43B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 53.97M | 197.98M | 161.65M | 72.19M | 182.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 194.59M | 269.15M | 231.90M | 153.58M | 263.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -206.08M | -53.82M | -58.87M | 73.04M | 238.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.82M | -222.18M | -206.24M | -375.16M | -327.71M |
CoreCivic Technical Analysis
Positive
19.79
Price Trends
18.72
Positive
18.57
Positive
19.41
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
58.62
Neutral
73.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.85, above the 50-day MA of 18.72, and above the 200-day MA of 19.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CXW.
CoreCivic Risk Analysis
CoreCivic disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CoreCivic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CoreCivic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.80B | 13.80 | 11.81% | 7.05% | 2.93% | -0.87% | |
65 Neutral | $1.93B | 18.58 | 8.00% | ― | 5.72% | 47.75% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $4.71B | 27.51 | 21.63% | 5.02% | -1.48% | -50.05% | |
55 Neutral | $1.78B | -946.00 | -0.58% | 3.42% | 12.57% | 4.92% | |
54 Neutral | $1.88B | 1.02 | -132.88% | ― | 38.93% | 952.55% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CXW
CoreCivic
19.79
-0.83
-4.03%
EPR
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49.61
1.59
3.32%
OUT
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26.75
11.29
72.98%
UNIT
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7.85
-0.18
-2.24%
SMA
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30.01
-1.37
-4.37%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.