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CoreCivic
(NYSE:CXW)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(14.83% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical momentum and a positive earnings-call outlook centered on liquidity improvement, debt reduction, and increased buyback capacity. This is tempered by weaker underlying cash conversion in the financials and a valuation that is not especially inexpensive at a ~24.5 P/E with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength from asset sales
Large asset dispositions materially increased cash on hand and funded meaningful debt reduction, lowering interest exposure and improving covenant headroom. This structurally strengthens financial flexibility for 2–6+ months, enabling defensive liquidity and optionality for future capital allocation decisions.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow conversion
Free cash flow is thin relative to earnings, limiting internal financing capacity for capex, dividends, or sustained repurchases. Persistent low FCF conversion raises sensitivity to occupancy or contract shocks and reduces the margin for error if operating performance weakens over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength from asset sales
Large asset dispositions materially increased cash on hand and funded meaningful debt reduction, lowering interest exposure and improving covenant headroom. This structurally strengthens financial flexibility for 2–6+ months, enabling defensive liquidity and optionality for future capital allocation decisions.
Read all positive factors
CoreCivic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across CoreCivic’s business lines to show which activities supply the bulk of revenue and where growth is coming from. Highlights dependence on government contracts, facility occupancy and contract renewals, and geographic or service areas that could accelerate or slow top-line growth.
Breaks down sales across CoreCivic’s business lines to show which activities supply the bulk of revenue and where growth is coming from. Highlights dependence on government contracts, facility occupancy and contract renewals, and geographic or service areas that could accelerate or slow top-line growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoreCivic (CXW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.96B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.5
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth19.89%
EPS Growth62.08%
CountryUS
Employees13,651
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.23
Shares Outstanding98,888,460
10 Day Avg. Volume970,592
30 Day Avg. Volume1,331,789
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio37.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.50Price Target Upside29.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.56B
CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CoreCivic, Inc. specializes in the ownership and management of a diverse portfolio of correctional institutions, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities throughout the United States. Its operations are organized into three distinct d...
How the Company Makes Money
CoreCivic primarily makes money by contracting with government agencies to provide correctional, detention, and reentry capacity and related services. The largest revenue stream is facility operations under contracts with federal, state, and local...
CoreCivic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial story driven by large, accretive asset sales that materially strengthened liquidity, enabled debt reduction, and expanded share repurchase capacity. Core operating metrics showed healthy year‑over‑year improvements (notably ICE revenue +51.6% and higher average daily populations vs prior year), and management raised per‑share guidance. However, near‑term challenges include ICE population volatility during Q2, margin pressure from under‑occupied reactivations, and uncertainty around contract adjustments tied to the facility sales which reduced full‑year EBITDA guidance. Overall the positives (major balance sheet improvement, buyback capacity, per‑share upside and revenue gains) outweigh the near‑term operational headwinds and guidance noise.Positive Updates
Large Asset Sales and Net Proceeds
Sold 4 facilities for gross proceeds of $2.234 billion (California City + Otay Mesa $1.5B; Midwest Regional + Prairie $734M). Estimated net proceeds after taxes and transaction costs approximately $1.62 billion (~$1.6B). Average price per bed ~$307k.
Negative Updates
ICE Population Volatility and Q2 Decline
Nationwide ICE detention populations fell from ~70.8k (Jan) to ~60.3k (early Apr), a decline of 14.8%. Average daily ICE populations in company care declined 6.6% in Q2 vs Q1, contributing to near-term softness.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large Asset Sales and Net Proceeds
Sold 4 facilities for gross proceeds of $2.234 billion (California City + Otay Mesa $1.5B; Midwest Regional + Prairie $734M). Estimated net proceeds after taxes and transaction costs approximately $1.62 billion (~$1.6B). Average price per bed ~$307k.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CoreCivic updated 2026 guidance reflecting the four facility sales and debt paydown: GAAP diluted EPS $15.15–$15.20 (includes significant gain on sale); adjusted diluted EPS (ex‑special items) $1.62–$1.70 (prior $1.53–$1.63); normalized FFO/share $2.61–$2.70 (prior $2.60–$2.70); adjusted EBITDA $440.5–$445.5M (down from $453.8–$461.8M); AFFO $257.5–$271.5M; maintenance CapEx $65–$75M, other CapEx $15M, activation CapEx $35–$40M; G&A $173–$175M; effective tax rate 25–28%. Guidance assumes modestly higher residential populations, incorporates estimated contract adjustments for the sold facilities and the benefit of interest income on residual cash (EBITDA excludes interest‑expense reduction), and does not assume any share repurchases (the board increased the repurchase authorization by $500M to $1.2B with ~$755.8M available); company repaid $608.5M of debt (including $238.5M 4.75% notes) from approximately $1.6B gross (~$1.62B gross, ~$1.6B net) of sales proceeds, resulting in roughly $1B cash on hand, total debt ≈ $739.1M and trailing‑12‑month net debt/adjusted‑EBITDA ~2.9x.CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.48B | 2.21B | 1.96B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 491.74M | 518.65M | 468.29M | 306.89M | 431.54M | 525.55M |
| EBITDA | 383.50M | 348.31M | 287.39M | 296.10M | 378.18M | 306.38M |
| Net Income | 127.90M | 116.50M | 68.87M | 67.59M | 122.32M | -51.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.46B | 3.26B | 2.93B | 3.11B | 3.24B | 3.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 108.93M | 112.45M | 107.49M | 121.84M | 149.40M | 299.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.01B | 1.21B | 1.39B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.02B | 1.85B | 1.44B | 1.63B | 1.81B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 1.41B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.43B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 47.82M | 53.97M | 197.98M | 161.65M | 72.19M | 182.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.93M | 194.59M | 269.15M | 231.90M | 153.58M | 263.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -373.85M | -206.08M | -53.82M | -58.87M | 73.04M | 238.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 251.65M | 1.82M | -222.18M | -206.24M | -375.16M | -327.71M |
CoreCivic Technical Analysis
Positive
31.35
Price Trends
28.87
Positive
24.60
Positive
21.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Positive
65.28
Neutral
64.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.09, above the 50-day MA of 28.87, and above the 200-day MA of 21.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CXW.
CoreCivic Risk Analysis
CoreCivic disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CoreCivic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CoreCivic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $4.76B | 19.77 | 11.34% | 5.67% | 4.53% | 52.99% | |
72 Outperform | $2.96B | 24.51 | 8.96% | ― | 19.89% | 62.08% | |
69 Neutral | $1.99B | 207.55 | 2.45% | 4.61% | 19.80% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $5.61B | 29.51 | 35.88% | 3.75% | 3.17% | -33.22% | |
60 Neutral | $2.36B | 1.94 | 270.16% | ― | 199.70% | 2008.88% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CXW
CoreCivic
32.27
12.08
59.83%
EPR
EPR Properties
62.20
12.75
25.79%
OUT
Outfront Media
31.21
15.14
94.21%
UNIT
Uniti Group
9.54
2.90
43.67%
SMA
SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.
34.31
2.06
6.39%
CoreCivic Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
CoreCivic boosts Q2 results and financial flexibility
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
CoreCivic reported strong financial performance for the second quarter of 2026, with total revenue rising 27.3% year over year to $684.9 million and diluted EPS increasing 5.7% to $0.37, despite net income slipping 3.6% to $37.1 million as the pri...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
CoreCivic Sells Facilities, Highlights Real Estate Value
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 4, 2026, CoreCivic sold its 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility in Appleton, Minnesota and 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Reception Center in Leavenworth, Kansas to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security for a combined gross price of $...
Business Operations and Strategy
CoreCivic Announces Early Redemption of 2027 Senior Notes
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, CoreCivic announced it will redeem in full its outstanding 4.750% senior notes due 2027, with a remaining principal balance of $238.468 million, on August 12, 2026, ahead of their original October 15, 2027 maturity. The notes wil...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
CoreCivic Completes Major Detention Facility Asset Sale
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 2, 2026, CoreCivic completed the sale of its 2,560-bed California City Detention Facility and 1,994-bed Otay Mesa Detention Center to the U.S. government, through the Department of Homeland Security, for a combined gross price of $1.5 bill...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CoreCivic Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 14, 2026, CoreCivic held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders via live webcast, with approximately 90.56% of outstanding common shares represented. Shareholders elected eleven directors, ensuring board continuity through the 2027 annual ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.