CoreCivic Inc (CXW)
NYSE:CXW
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CoreCivic
(NYSE:CXW)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$22.00
▲(7.58% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals and a strong, guidance-raising earnings call (Q1 outperformance, activations, and an accretive acquisition). These positives are tempered by weaker recent free cash flow/cash conversion and leverage-related uncertainty, while technicals are only moderately supportive and valuation appears reasonable but not strongly aided by yield data.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Profitability Re-acceleration
Sustained revenue re-acceleration and a return to consistent profitability indicate improving underlying operating performance. Over the medium term this supports stronger FFO and reinvestment capacity, underpinning the REIT-style cash flows and enabling capital deployment if margins remain stable.
Negative Factors
Compressed free cash flow
Sharply lower free cash flow and weaker cash conversion reduce internal funding for maintenance capex, activations, and acquisitions. Over a multi‑quarter horizon this narrows the margin for error on leverage and can force greater reliance on external financing or cuts to buybacks if cash generation doesn't recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Profitability Re-acceleration
Sustained revenue re-acceleration and a return to consistent profitability indicate improving underlying operating performance. Over the medium term this supports stronger FFO and reinvestment capacity, underpinning the REIT-style cash flows and enabling capital deployment if margins remain stable.
Read all positive factors
CoreCivic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
CoreCivic (CXW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth19.89%
EPS Growth62.08%
CountryUS
Employees11,649
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.22
Shares Outstanding98,888,460
10 Day Avg. Volume813,143
30 Day Avg. Volume1,209,836
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio37.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.50Price Target Upside44.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.55B
CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The company provid...
How the Company Makes Money
CoreCivic makes money primarily by contracting with government agencies to provide capacity and services for incarcerated/detained populations and by monetizing its facility real estate through lease arrangements. Key revenue streams include: (1) ...
CoreCivic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong sequential and year-over-year financial performance (notably adjusted EBITDA +36%, adjusted EPS +74%, and meaningful federal/ICE-driven revenue growth), successful activation of idled facilities, a strategic acquisition (Clinical Solutions) that materially expands recurring revenue and adjacencies, and continued shareholder-friendly capital deployment (buybacks). Offsetting risks include short-term ICE population volatility that pressures Q2 results, some decline in Marshals revenue, dependence on government funding and policy decisions (including potential ICE asset ownership or warehouse strategies), and modest near-term leverage and short-term borrowings. On balance, the operational and financial upside — including raised full-year guidance, accretive acquisition, and strong organic activations — outweigh the transitory policy and population headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong financial outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA of $110.1M in Q1 2026, up 36% YoY (from $81.0M); adjusted EPS (ex‑M&A) $0.40 vs $0.23 prior, a 74% increase; normalized FFO per share $0.65 vs $0.45 prior, up 44%; GAAP EPS $0.38. Results beat consensus by $0.12 per share (EPS) and $13.3M (adjusted EBITDA).
Negative Updates
ICE population volatility and Q2 headwind
Nationwide ICE detention populations hit ~70,800 in late Jan 2026, then declined ~10,500 by early April. CoreCivic's ICE populations fell roughly 3,000 from the January peak through Apr 30; management expects a sequential per-share decline in Q2 (~$0.06–$0.07 bridge) and reduced EPS vs prior forecast ($0.09–$0.15 reduction attributable to lower ICE populations).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong financial outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA of $110.1M in Q1 2026, up 36% YoY (from $81.0M); adjusted EPS (ex‑M&A) $0.40 vs $0.23 prior, a 74% increase; normalized FFO per share $0.65 vs $0.45 prior, up 44%; GAAP EPS $0.38. Results beat consensus by $0.12 per share (EPS) and $13.3M (adjusted EBITDA).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CoreCivic raised full‑year 2026 guidance to diluted EPS $1.51–$1.61 and adjusted diluted EPS $1.53–$1.63, FFO $2.58–$2.68 and normalized FFO $2.60–$2.70, and adjusted EBITDA $453.8–$461.8M (up from $437–$445M), reflecting a Q1 beat of about $0.05/share plus the Midwest Regional contribution ($0.05–$0.06 per share for the remainder of 2026) and the Clinical Solutions Pharmacy acquisition (expected 2026 revenue $215–$230M and net EPS contribution $0.03–$0.05), partially offset by a $0.09–$0.15 per‑share reduction from lower ICE populations; management expects Q2 to reflect the $0.06 per‑share employee retention credit reversal, an ICE‑driven $0.05–$0.07 per‑share headwind partially offset by seasonal +$0.01–$0.02, guidance assumes maintenance CapEx $60–$70M, other CapEx $15M, $40–$45M for idle‑facility activations, AFFO $250.4–$264.9M, an effective tax rate of 25–30%, and continues to incorporate share repurchases while excluding unannounced contract awards, additional acquisitions or dispositions.CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
53
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.34B | 2.21B | 1.96B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 551.77M | 518.65M | 468.29M | 306.89M | 431.54M | 525.55M |
| EBITDA | 373.81M | 348.31M | 287.39M | 296.10M | 378.18M | 306.38M |
| Net Income | 129.31M | 116.50M | 68.87M | 67.59M | 122.32M | -51.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.37B | 3.26B | 2.93B | 3.11B | 3.24B | 3.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 209.69M | 112.45M | 107.49M | 121.84M | 149.40M | 299.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.40B | 1.22B | 1.01B | 1.21B | 1.39B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.97B | 1.85B | 1.44B | 1.63B | 1.81B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.40B | 1.41B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.43B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.11M | 53.97M | 197.98M | 161.65M | 72.19M | 182.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 163.88M | 194.59M | 269.15M | 231.90M | 153.58M | 263.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.88M | -206.08M | -53.82M | -58.87M | 73.04M | 238.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 176.41M | 1.82M | -222.18M | -206.24M | -375.16M | -327.71M |
CoreCivic Technical Analysis
Positive
20.45
Price Trends
18.91
Positive
18.95
Positive
19.34
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
60.56
Neutral
70.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.88, above the 50-day MA of 18.91, and above the 200-day MA of 19.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CXW.
CoreCivic Risk Analysis
CoreCivic disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CoreCivic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CoreCivic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.46B | 15.23 | 11.68% | 7.05% | 2.71% | 96.98% | |
67 Neutral | $2.01B | 12.87 | 9.00% | ― | 19.89% | 62.08% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $5.97B | 60.87 | 27.72% | 5.02% | 3.17% | -33.22% | |
62 Neutral | $1.93B | 43.67 | 1.09% | 3.42% | 19.80% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $2.70B | -1.44 | -132.88% | ― | 149.33% | 1191.20% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CXW
CoreCivic
19.60
-2.12
-9.76%
EPR
EPR Properties
58.30
9.29
18.95%
OUT
Outfront Media
31.84
16.18
103.29%
UNIT
Uniti Group
11.22
3.49
45.15%
SMA
SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.
31.75
-2.58
-7.51%
CoreCivic Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
CoreCivic Secures Incremental Term Loan, Expands Credit Facility
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
On April 10, 2026, CoreCivic entered into a Second Amendment to its Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, securing a $100 million incremental term loan from existing lenders and increasing its overall credit facility to $800 million. The n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.