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CoreCivic
(NYSE:CXW)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(71.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/13/26
CXW scores well on momentum and recent fundamentals catalysts (raised 2026 guidance, operational activations, and supportive corporate actions like the large asset sale and note redemption). The overall score is held back by weaker recent free cash flow, historically meaningful leverage (with some TTM debt data uncertainty), and a valuation that is not clearly inexpensive given the policy- and ICE-demand sensitivity highlighted by management.
Positive Factors
Large federal contract footprint (ICE exposure)
A sizeable, growing federal revenue base and management of ~24% of ICE populations provide durable, contract-driven cash flows. Government contracting creates high switching costs and long-term counterpart relationships, supporting stable per-diem revenue and the economics of activating idle capacity over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
Weakened cash-flow conversion and falling FCF
Material deterioration in cash-flow conversion and a >50% drop in free cash flow reduce internal funding capacity. Lower FCF increases sensitivity to capex, working capital shifts and acquisition financing, constraining durable reinvestment or sustained buybacks without raising leverage or issuing equity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large federal contract footprint (ICE exposure)
A sizeable, growing federal revenue base and management of ~24% of ICE populations provide durable, contract-driven cash flows. Government contracting creates high switching costs and long-term counterpart relationships, supporting stable per-diem revenue and the economics of activating idle capacity over multi-year horizons.
Read all positive factors
CoreCivic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across CoreCivic’s business lines to show which activities supply the bulk of revenue and where growth is coming from. Highlights dependence on government contracts, facility occupancy and contract renewals, and geographic or service areas that could accelerate or slow top-line growth.
Breaks down sales across CoreCivic’s business lines to show which activities supply the bulk of revenue and where growth is coming from. Highlights dependence on government contracts, facility occupancy and contract renewals, and geographic or service areas that could accelerate or slow top-line growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoreCivic (CXW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.8
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth19.89%
EPS Growth62.08%
CountryUS
Employees13,651
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.22
Shares Outstanding98,888,460
10 Day Avg. Volume1,334,472
30 Day Avg. Volume1,433,271
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio37.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.00Price Target Upside76.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.56B
CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CoreCivic, Inc. specializes in the ownership and management of a diverse portfolio of correctional institutions, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities throughout the United States. Its operations are organized into three distinct d...
How the Company Makes Money
CoreCivic primarily makes money by contracting with government agencies to provide correctional, detention, and reentry capacity and related services. The largest revenue stream is facility operations under contracts with federal, state, and local...
CoreCivic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong sequential and year-over-year financial performance (notably adjusted EBITDA +36%, adjusted EPS +74%, and meaningful federal/ICE-driven revenue growth), successful activation of idled facilities, a strategic acquisition (Clinical Solutions) that materially expands recurring revenue and adjacencies, and continued shareholder-friendly capital deployment (buybacks). Offsetting risks include short-term ICE population volatility that pressures Q2 results, some decline in Marshals revenue, dependence on government funding and policy decisions (including potential ICE asset ownership or warehouse strategies), and modest near-term leverage and short-term borrowings. On balance, the operational and financial upside — including raised full-year guidance, accretive acquisition, and strong organic activations — outweigh the transitory policy and population headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong financial outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA of $110.1M in Q1 2026, up 36% YoY (from $81.0M); adjusted EPS (ex‑M&A) $0.40 vs $0.23 prior, a 74% increase; normalized FFO per share $0.65 vs $0.45 prior, up 44%; GAAP EPS $0.38. Results beat consensus by $0.12 per share (EPS) and $13.3M (adjusted EBITDA).
Negative Updates
ICE population volatility and Q2 headwind
Nationwide ICE detention populations hit ~70,800 in late Jan 2026, then declined ~10,500 by early April. CoreCivic's ICE populations fell roughly 3,000 from the January peak through Apr 30; management expects a sequential per-share decline in Q2 (~$0.06–$0.07 bridge) and reduced EPS vs prior forecast ($0.09–$0.15 reduction attributable to lower ICE populations).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong financial outperformance
Adjusted EBITDA of $110.1M in Q1 2026, up 36% YoY (from $81.0M); adjusted EPS (ex‑M&A) $0.40 vs $0.23 prior, a 74% increase; normalized FFO per share $0.65 vs $0.45 prior, up 44%; GAAP EPS $0.38. Results beat consensus by $0.12 per share (EPS) and $13.3M (adjusted EBITDA).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CoreCivic raised full‑year 2026 guidance to diluted EPS $1.51–$1.61 and adjusted diluted EPS $1.53–$1.63, FFO $2.58–$2.68 and normalized FFO $2.60–$2.70, and adjusted EBITDA $453.8–$461.8M (up from $437–$445M), reflecting a Q1 beat of about $0.05/share plus the Midwest Regional contribution ($0.05–$0.06 per share for the remainder of 2026) and the Clinical Solutions Pharmacy acquisition (expected 2026 revenue $215–$230M and net EPS contribution $0.03–$0.05), partially offset by a $0.09–$0.15 per‑share reduction from lower ICE populations; management expects Q2 to reflect the $0.06 per‑share employee retention credit reversal, an ICE‑driven $0.05–$0.07 per‑share headwind partially offset by seasonal +$0.01–$0.02, guidance assumes maintenance CapEx $60–$70M, other CapEx $15M, $40–$45M for idle‑facility activations, AFFO $250.4–$264.9M, an effective tax rate of 25–30%, and continues to incorporate share repurchases while excluding unannounced contract awards, additional acquisitions or dispositions.CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
53
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.34B | 2.21B | 1.96B | 1.90B | 1.85B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 518.44M | 518.65M | 468.29M | 306.89M | 431.54M | 525.55M |
| EBITDA | 373.80M | 348.31M | 287.39M | 296.10M | 378.18M | 306.38M |
| Net Income | 129.31M | 116.50M | 68.87M | 67.59M | 122.32M | -51.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.37B | 3.26B | 2.93B | 3.11B | 3.24B | 3.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 209.69M | 112.45M | 107.49M | 121.84M | 149.40M | 299.64M |
| Total Debt | 1.40B | 1.22B | 1.01B | 1.21B | 1.39B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.97B | 1.85B | 1.44B | 1.63B | 1.81B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.40B | 1.41B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.43B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.11M | 53.97M | 197.98M | 161.65M | 72.19M | 182.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 163.88M | 194.59M | 269.15M | 231.90M | 153.58M | 263.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -203.88M | -206.08M | -53.82M | -58.87M | 73.04M | 238.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 176.41M | 1.82M | -222.18M | -206.24M | -375.16M | -327.71M |
CoreCivic Technical Analysis
Positive
20.45
Price Trends
24.96
Positive
22.08
Positive
20.41
Positive
Market Momentum
1.83
Positive
69.43
Neutral
72.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.84, below the 50-day MA of 24.96, and above the 200-day MA of 20.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CXW.
CoreCivic Risk Analysis
CoreCivic disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CoreCivic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CoreCivic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.56B | 18.40 | 11.68% | 7.05% | 2.71% | 96.98% | |
69 Neutral | $3.15B | 25.76 | 9.00% | ― | 19.89% | 62.08% | |
64 Neutral | $2.63B | 1.96 | -446.35% | ― | 149.33% | 1191.20% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $1.96B | 205.14 | 1.09% | 3.42% | 19.80% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $5.82B | 30.69 | 27.72% | 5.02% | 3.17% | -33.22% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CXW
CoreCivic
31.43
9.34
42.28%
EPR
EPR Properties
59.81
2.52
4.40%
OUT
Outfront Media
33.15
16.01
93.45%
UNIT
Uniti Group
11.04
3.24
41.63%
SMA
SmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.
33.15
-1.51
-4.35%
CoreCivic Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
CoreCivic Announces Early Redemption of 2027 Senior Notes
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, CoreCivic announced it will redeem in full its outstanding 4.750% senior notes due 2027, with a remaining principal balance of $238.468 million, on August 12, 2026, ahead of their original October 15, 2027 maturity. The notes wil...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
CoreCivic Completes Major Detention Facility Asset Sale
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 2, 2026, CoreCivic completed the sale of its 2,560-bed California City Detention Facility and 1,994-bed Otay Mesa Detention Center to the U.S. government, through the Department of Homeland Security, for a combined gross price of $1.5 bill...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CoreCivic Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 14, 2026, CoreCivic held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders via live webcast, with approximately 90.56% of outstanding common shares represented. Shareholders elected eleven directors, ensuring board continuity through the 2027 annual ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.