CoreCivic (CXW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: 5.72%
• EPS Growth: 47.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,649
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: REIT - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 104,584,656
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,275,829
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,096,842
• PEG Ratio: 6.85
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.49
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 66.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(16.54% Upside)

CoreCivic's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with growth potential, supported by positive technical indicators and strategic corporate actions. The company's valuation is reasonable, and recent earnings call insights suggest promising future prospects despite some operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The new contracts will significantly boost revenue, indicating strong demand for CoreCivic's services and enhancing its market position.

Financial Flexibility

The expanded credit facility provides CoreCivic with increased financial flexibility to pursue strategic investments and support long-term growth.

Leadership Strength

Swenson's extensive experience is expected to enhance operational excellence and support CoreCivic's growth during a period of rapid expansion.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

The decline in free cash flow growth poses a risk to CoreCivic's ability to fund operations and investments, potentially impacting financial stability.

Operational Challenges

Start-up related losses indicate challenges in efficiently scaling operations, which could affect profitability and delay revenue realization.

Legal Challenges

Legal issues delaying facility activation may hinder CoreCivic's ability to achieve stabilized occupancy and expected revenue targets.

CoreCivic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CoreCivic (CXW) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) and one of the largest private prison operators in the United States. The company focuses on providing correctional, detention, and rehabilitation services across various sectors, including federal and state government contracts. CoreCivic's core products and services include the management and operation of prisons, jails, and community correctional facilities, as well as providing rehabilitation programs and services to inmates.

How the Company Makes Money

CoreCivic generates revenue primarily through contracts with government agencies at the federal, state, and local levels to manage correctional facilities and provide related services. The company earns money by charging governments a per-diem rate for each inmate housed in its facilities, which varies based on the location and type of facility. Additionally, CoreCivic receives revenue from various ancillary services, including rehabilitation programs, healthcare services for inmates, and support services. The company has established significant partnerships with government entities, which provide a stable and recurring revenue stream. Factors contributing to its earnings include the overall demand for correctional services, changes in criminal justice policies, and the company's ability to manage operational costs effectively.

CoreCivic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CoreCivic shows solid revenue growth and improved gross profit margins, indicating operational efficiency. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but cash flow performance raises concerns due to a significant decline in free cash flow growth. Profitability is improving, but cash flow challenges need addressing for long-term financial health.

Income Statement

CoreCivic's income statement shows a steady revenue growth rate of 4.45% in the TTM, indicating positive momentum. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 45.04% from 23.87% in 2024, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains modest at 5.25%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting consistent earnings before interest and taxes.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a favorable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 in the TTM, indicating a manageable level of leverage. Return on equity improved to 7.39%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a comprehensive assessment of financial stability. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with controlled debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a concerning decline in free cash flow growth by 90% in the TTM, highlighting potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.12, indicating limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.43 suggests some ability to cover net income with free cash flow, but overall cash flow performance is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.09B	1.96B	1.90B	1.85B	1.86B	1.91B
Gross Profit	495.19M	468.29M	306.89M	431.54M	525.55M	499.11M
EBITDA	333.07M	287.39M	296.10M	378.18M	306.38M	293.88M
Net Income	109.24M	68.87M	67.59M	122.32M	-51.90M	55.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.11B	2.93B	3.11B	3.24B	3.50B	3.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.78M	107.49M	121.84M	149.40M	299.64M	113.22M
Total Debt	1.04B	1.01B	1.21B	1.39B	1.69B	1.97B
Total Liabilities	1.64B	1.44B	1.63B	1.81B	2.13B	2.30B
Stockholders Equity	1.47B	1.49B	1.48B	1.43B	1.37B	1.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	112.94M	197.98M	161.65M	72.19M	182.35M	271.74M
Operating Cash Flow	234.24M	269.15M	231.90M	153.58M	263.23M	355.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-185.79M	-53.82M	-58.87M	73.04M	238.42M	12.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-94.24M	-222.18M	-206.24M	-375.16M	-327.71M	-350.82M

CoreCivic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 18.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CXW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.85, below the 50-day MA of 18.05, and below the 200-day MA of 20.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CXW.

CoreCivic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EPR	75 Outperform	$3.81B	21.84	8.44%	7.01%	2.93%	-0.87%
CXW	73 Outperform	$1.98B	18.86	7.41%	―	5.72%	47.75%
OUT	69 Neutral	$3.92B	34.15	17.74%	5.12%	-1.48%	-50.05%
UNIT	68 Neutral	$1.78B	1.47	―	―	38.93%	952.55%
PCH	66 Neutral	$3.11B	49.23	3.25%	4.47%	5.40%	294.38%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SMA	62 Neutral	$1.94B	-112.82	-0.58%	3.27%	12.57%	4.92%

CoreCivic Corporate Events

CoreCivic Appoints Daren Swenson as Executive VP

On December 11, 2025, CoreCivic‘s Board of Directors appointed Daren Swenson as Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Swenson, who has been with the company since 1992, will oversee operations for corrections, detention, and reentry facilities. This appointment comes during a period of rapid growth for CoreCivic, with Swenson’s extensive experience expected to contribute to operational excellence and the company’s ability to meet the growing needs of government partners.

CoreCivic Expands Credit Facility by $300 Million

On December 1, 2025, CoreCivic, Inc. amended its credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility by $300 million, bringing the total to $575 million. This expansion enhances CoreCivic’s financial flexibility, positioning it for strategic investments and long-term value creation, as the company forecasts significant revenue and cash flow increases in 2026 and 2027.

CoreCivic Boosts Share Repurchase Program by $200 Million

On November 10, 2025, CoreCivic announced a $200 million increase to its existing share repurchase program, raising the total authorization to $700 million. This decision reflects the company’s strategy to enhance long-term shareholder value and capitalize on its current business strengths, including recent contract awards and a strong earnings trajectory.