Chevron (CVX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $392.77B
• Dividend Yield: 4.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -3.44%
• EPS Growth: -22.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 45,298
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 1.52
• Shares Outstanding: 1,995,385,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,688,375
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,613,065
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.61
• 1Y Price Target: $194.42
• Price Target Upside: -1.23% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $186.00B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $216.00 ▲(9.73% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/31/26

CVX scores as above-average primarily due to financial resilience (strong balance sheet and solid cash generation) and a favorable earnings-call setup (production growth, cost-out targets, and continued shareholder returns). Offsetting this are overbought technical conditions and a less supportive valuation (higher P/E for a cyclical business) alongside lingering operational and geopolitical/regulatory risks.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Chevron's low leverage and meaningful equity growth deliver durable financial flexibility. This supports sustained capital allocation—dividends, buybacks, and disciplined CapEx—through commodity cycles, reduces refinancing risk, and preserves optionality for opportunistic investments or downturn cushioning.

Cash Generation & Shareholder Returns

Consistent, large free cash flow provides a structural funding base for dividends, buybacks, and organic project funding. Persistent FCF enables capital discipline, deleveraging when needed, and the ability to sustain shareholder returns without relying on volatile near-term commodity spikes.

Production Growth & Project Pipeline

Material project start-ups across the Permian, Guyana, Tengiz and Eastern Mediterranean underpin medium-term volume growth. Higher, sustainable production increases cash flow visibility, drives scale economies, and supports lower unit costs and reinvestment capacity over the next several years.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression & Revenue Pressure

Significant margin erosion versus 2021–22 peaks reflects weaker price realizations and downstream pressures. Lower margins structurally reduce cash conversion and cushion against downturns, making earnings and free cash flow more sensitive to commodity and refining cycles over the coming months.

Downstream/Chemicals Cyclicality

A weak chemicals cycle constrains earnings diversification and margin stability. Management flags difficult M&A timing, limiting inorganic growth options into chemicals. Cyclical downstream earnings therefore remain a structural headwind to durable margin recovery and portfolio rebalancing.

Regulatory & Political Execution Risk

Venezuela growth is contingent on approvals, fiscal clarity and US authorizations. Persistent regulatory ambiguity and geopolitical risk can delay planned production gains, complicate cash flow forecasts, and limit the company's ability to reliably scale volumes from a high-potential region.

Chevron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as operates a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It is also involved in the cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and technology businesses. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Chevron primarily makes money by selling hydrocarbons and energy-related products and services through two main segments: Upstream and Downstream, with an additional contribution from chemicals. In Upstream, Chevron generates revenue from producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids and selling these commodities at market-linked prices; earnings are driven by production volumes, realized commodity prices, lifting and development costs, and the fiscal terms of the countries where it operates (e.g., royalties and taxes). In Downstream, Chevron earns revenue by purchasing crude oil and other feedstocks, refining them into transportation fuels (such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) and other refined products, and selling those products through wholesale channels and retail marketing; profitability is largely influenced by refining margins (the spread between refined product prices and crude/feedstock costs), refinery utilization, product mix, and demand conditions. Chevron’s chemicals business contributes by manufacturing and selling petrochemicals and plastics (typically via an affiliate/joint-venture structure) where earnings depend on chemical product prices, feedstock costs, and industry supply-demand cycles. Across the company, results are also affected by trading and supply/logistics optimization, asset sales and other divestitures (when they occur), and foreign exchange and regulatory/compliance factors that can impact costs and market access.

Chevron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are sturdy, led by a very strong balance sheet (low leverage, solid equity base) and healthy operating/free cash flow generation. The key drag is softer profitability versus 2022 highs, with revenue flat-to-down and material margin compression into TTM—consistent with commodity-cycle pressure.

Income Statement

Profitability remains positive but has clearly cooled versus prior years. Revenue is slightly down in 2024 and essentially flat-to-down again in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while margins compressed meaningfully: net margin declined from ~15.0% (2022) to ~9.1% (2024) and ~6.6% in TTM. Earnings are still solidly positive, but the trajectory suggests a weaker pricing/realization environment compared with the 2021–2022 peak (and highlights cyclicality versus the 2020 loss year).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a key strength. Leverage is low-to-moderate with debt-to-equity around ~0.13–0.22 across the period (TTM ~0.22), and equity has grown meaningfully over time, supporting financial flexibility. Returns on equity are positive but have come down from strong levels in 2022 (~18.5%) to mid-single-digits in TTM (~7.4%), reflecting weaker earnings rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy, with operating cash flow at ~$33.8B and free cash flow at ~$16.2B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, cash conversion has weakened versus prior years: free cash flow relative to net income is ~0.47 in TTM (below ~0.76 in 2022), indicating less of earnings turning into free cash. Free cash flow growth appears strong in TTM, but volatility across years (including declines in 2023 and 2024) underscores the cycle-driven nature of cash flows.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	187.03B	193.41B	196.91B	235.72B	155.61B
Gross Profit	34.38B	56.93B	60.39B	65.59B	45.43B
EBITDA	41.09B	45.81B	47.81B	67.00B	39.36B
Net Income	12.30B	17.66B	21.37B	35.47B	15.63B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	324.01B	256.94B	261.63B	257.71B	239.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.47B	6.79B	8.22B	17.90B	5.67B
Total Debt	46.74B	24.54B	20.84B	23.34B	31.37B
Total Liabilities	131.84B	103.78B	99.70B	97.47B	99.59B
Stockholders Equity	186.45B	152.32B	160.96B	159.28B	139.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.59B	15.04B	19.78B	37.63B	21.09B
Operating Cash Flow	33.94B	31.49B	35.61B	49.60B	29.19B
Investing Cash Flow	-15.91B	-8.94B	-15.23B	-12.11B	-5.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-19.06B	-23.47B	-30.11B	-24.98B	-23.11B

Chevron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 196.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 196.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.05, above the 50-day MA of 176.41, and above the 200-day MA of 155.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVX.

Chevron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COP	77 Outperform	$148.29B	19.42	12.25%	3.43%	8.41%	-16.12%
XOM	73 Outperform	$655.14B	18.07	11.04%	3.35%	-4.17%	-14.15%
OXY	73 Outperform	$56.46B	16.93	6.43%	2.39%	-2.48%	-65.26%
SHEL	71 Outperform	$255.93B	12.10	10.06%	3.92%	-6.96%	0.03%
CVX	69 Neutral	$392.77B	24.67	7.33%	4.54%	-3.44%	-22.05%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BP	60 Neutral	$110.50B	1,640.39	0.10%	5.62%	-4.11%	-37.59%

Chevron Corporate Events

Chevron boosts executive pay and long-term equity awards

On January 28, 2026, Chevron’s independent directors completed their annual review of executive compensation and approved base salary increases for key executives, including a $75,000 raise for Chairman and CEO Michael K. Wirth to $1,975,000, as well as higher salaries for CFO Eimear P. Bonner, Vice Chairman Mark A. Nelson, and Chief Legal Officer R. Hewitt Pate, effective March 1, 2026. The Board maintained existing 2026 target bonus percentages under the Chevron Incentive Plan for these executives, while also approving substantial 2026 long-term equity awards under the company’s 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan, led by a $23 million grant value for Wirth and multi-million-dollar awards for the other named executives, signaling continued emphasis on performance-based and equity-linked compensation for the leadership team.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVX) stock is a Buy with a $188.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chevron stock, see the CVX Stock Forecast page.

Chevron Adds Thomas Horton to Board and Audit Committee

On January 27, 2026, Chevron Corporation’s board of directors appointed Thomas W. Horton, a partner at Global Infrastructure Partners and former chairman and chief executive of American Airlines and senior executive at AT&T, as a member of its board and as a member of the Audit Committee, effective the same date. In connection with his appointment, the board approved a prorated grant to Horton of its standard annual restricted stock unit award for non-employee directors under the company’s equity compensation plan, along with a prorated annual cash retainer of $155,000, aligning his compensation with Chevron’s existing director pay structure and signaling the addition of a seasoned executive with extensive corporate finance, aviation, and infrastructure experience to its governance and oversight framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVX) stock is a Buy with a $188.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chevron stock, see the CVX Stock Forecast page.