Castellum (CTM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $70.83M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 805.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: 11.09%
• EPS Growth: 64.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 238
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 94,612,750
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 778,075
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 804,995
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.62
• P/FCF Ratio: -40.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.95
• 1Y Price Target: $3.50
• Price Target Upside: 250.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $61.00M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.79 ▼(-21.10% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is driven by improving fundamentals (revenue growth, return to profitability, and a significantly de-risked balance sheet) and supportive corporate events (debt elimination and sizable contract wins). These positives are tempered by weak and volatile cash flow and bearish technical signals with the stock trading below key moving averages.

Positive Factors

Multi-year revenue growth & return to profitability

Sustained multi-year top-line growth and a 2025 return to positive net income indicate the business model scales with larger contract volumes. Solid mid-to-high 30% gross margins support durable unit economics as the firm converts more prime wins into recurring revenue over the medium term.

De-risked balance sheet and liquidity

Eliminating acquisition-related debt and building a cash buffer materially reduces financial risk and raises strategic optionality. Low leverage increases ability to invest in bid capacity, absorb contract working-capital swings, and pursue at least one planned accretive acquisition while limiting refinancing pressure.

Large, multi-year Navy prime contract wins

Multiple sizable, multi-year prime awards deepen the company's embedded role in naval aviation support, improving backlog visibility and predictability of revenue. Being a repeat prime on key programs reduces near-term recompete exposure and strengthens long-run competitive positioning within federal defense services.

Negative Factors

Volatile and negative cash generation

Negative and inconsistent operating and free cash flow constrain organic reinvestment and make the company more reliant on equity or one-off financing to fund growth. Persistent cash volatility can limit bidding on large contracts, hamper payroll/subcontractor timing, and raise dilution risk if external funding is required.

Inconsistent operating profitability

Wide swings in operating results suggest earnings are sensitive to contract timing, one-offs, or execution variability. This inconsistency complicates forecasting and leaves margin sustainability uncertain, which can impact hiring, pricing leverage on new awards, and credibility with larger prime partners over the medium term.

Small scale with historically weak returns

Relatively small scale and historically weak returns limit absorptive capacity for program overruns and increase reliance on a few large contracts. Smaller headcount and capital base raise execution risk on multi-prime, multi-year programs and can slow margin improvement absent sustained contract diversification or successful accretive acquisitions.

Castellum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Castellum, Inc. provides services in the areas of cybersecurity, information technology, electronic warfare, information warfare, and information operations. The company offers intelligence analysis, software development, software engineering, program management, strategic and mission planning, information assurance, cybersecurity and policy support, and data analytics services. It serves customers in the Federal government, financial services, healthcare, and other data application sectors. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Castellum makes money primarily by performing contracted services for government customers and, to a lesser extent, other organizations. Its revenue model is centered on winning and executing service contracts (including task orders under broader contract vehicles) where it bills customers based on contract terms such as time-and-materials (billing labor hours at agreed rates plus approved costs), fixed-price deliverables (earning revenue as milestones or deliverables are completed), and cost-reimbursement structures (recovering allowable costs plus a fee, where applicable). Key revenue streams come from providing cybersecurity and information assurance services, IT modernization and engineering support, software/systems development and integration, and program/mission support services. Earnings are driven by the volume and mix of funded contract work (e.g., staffing levels, billable hours, realized labor margins, and subcontractor usage), contract performance and renewals, and the company’s ability to win recompetes and new awards. Specific significant partnerships or customer concentrations: null.

Castellum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and a 2025 return to net profitability support the outlook, and leverage is now very low with a stronger equity base. The main drag is weak earnings quality/cash conversion: 2025 operating and free cash flow turned negative and have been volatile historically, making profitability sustainability less certain.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the multi-year period (from ~$13.3M in 2020 to ~$52.9M in 2025), and 2025 returned to profitability with ~$2.5M of net income after several years of sizable losses. Gross margin remains solid (mid-to-high 30% range in 2025, ~40%+ in prior years), supporting the business model. However, results are still somewhat inconsistent: operating profitability has been negative in most years, and the sharp swing from large 2024 losses to 2025 profits suggests execution and/or one-time factors remain a key risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet improved materially in 2025, with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.03 vs. ~0.57 in 2024) and a larger equity base (~$35.8M equity on ~$41.9M assets). This reduces financial risk and gives flexibility to invest or absorb volatility. The main offset is that returns have been weak and volatile historically (negative returns on equity in prior years), indicating profitability has not yet been consistently durable despite the stronger capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area. Operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative in 2025 (about -$1.9M and -$2.1M, respectively) after being modestly positive in 2024, highlighting working-capital or earnings-quality volatility. While free cash flow has been positive in some years, the pattern is inconsistent across the period, which can constrain reinvestment capacity and increase reliance on external funding if negative cash flow persists.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	52.87M	44.76M	45.24M	42.19M	25.07M
Gross Profit	19.37M	18.27M	18.68M	17.60M	11.07M
EBITDA	-1.32M	-6.53M	-13.28M	-8.06M	-5.80M
Net Income	-2.40M	-9.98M	-17.80M	-14.91M	-7.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	41.90M	37.84M	30.11M	33.04M	30.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.88M	12.01M	1.83M	4.64M	2.02M
Total Debt	1.22M	11.49M	11.96M	10.11M	11.73M
Total Liabilities	6.15M	17.66M	17.16M	15.51M	15.43M
Stockholders Equity	35.75M	20.18M	12.95M	17.53M	15.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.10M	1.12M	-2.28M	900.88K	-1.36M
Operating Cash Flow	-1.95M	1.12M	-2.26M	990.16K	-1.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-159.77K	221.36K	-440.99K	-339.28K	808.83K
Financing Cash Flow	4.74M	9.08M	-104.62K	1.97M	146.84K

Castellum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.88, above the 50-day MA of 0.92, and below the 200-day MA of 1.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.89 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTM.

Castellum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LDOS	73 Outperform	$20.96B	16.69	31.07%	0.87%	6.48%	22.17%
BAH	69 Neutral	$9.64B	13.00	81.85%	2.60%	2.42%	3.05%
SAIC	64 Neutral	$4.20B	13.47	23.73%	1.69%	-0.38%	31.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
CTM	61 Neutral	$70.83M	-15.79	-7.36%	―	11.09%	64.29%
PSN	57 Neutral	$5.30B	29.66	9.48%	―	-0.24%	389.03%
CSPI	47 Neutral	$81.88M	324.24	-1.02%	0.95%	6.36%	73.88%

Castellum Corporate Events

Castellum Eliminates Acquisition Debt, Enters Phase 3 Growth

On February 17, 2026, Castellum, Inc. announced it had fully repaid the $400,000 principal on its last remaining note payable, eliminating all debt tied to seven acquisitions completed during its startup “Phase 1.” Management highlighted that since July 2024, when CEO Glen Ives began “Phase 2,” the company has shifted from more than $11 million in debt and about $2 million in cash to a debt-free balance sheet with over $14 million in cash, underpinned by rising revenue, profit, and successful equity raises.

The company emphasized the strategic significance of three major prime contract wins in 2025 totaling just over $219 million and running about five years, which support various Naval Air Systems and Naval Air Warfare Center missions and are seen as resilient to federal budget volatility. Entering 2026, Castellum reported no recompete risk on existing contracts and said it is moving into “Phase 3,” combining continued organic growth with plans for at least one accretive acquisition to accelerate scale, reinforcing its position as a growing defense-focused technology and services provider for federal stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $0.89 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Wins Major Navy Recompete, Extends Growth Momentum

On January 7, 2026, Castellum’s Specialty Systems, Inc. subsidiary was re-awarded a $49.8 million, five-and-a-half-year recompete contract to provide software support activities and cyber engineering for mission-critical systems at the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Lakehurst, including the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System, Advanced Arresting Gear, and other key aircraft launch and recovery and naval aviation support equipment. This contract win, SSI’s third consecutive award on this program and the fourth-largest in Castellum’s history, capped what management described as the most successful year in the company’s history, with Castellum securing approximately $219 million across three major Naval prime contracts in 2025, reinforcing its position as a growing defense technology contractor with a strong backlog and deeper embedded role in U.S. naval aviation operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.

Castellum updates senior executive compensation and contracts

Effective January 1, 2026, Castellum, Inc. implemented changes to its senior executive employment arrangements, including compensation and notice provisions. The company entered into an at‑will employment agreement with General Counsel Tammy L. Martin, providing her an annual base salary of $290,000 and access to standard employee benefit plans, while requiring either party to give 60 days’ written notice before termination. On the same date, Castellum raised Chief Operating Officer Andrew Merriman’s annual base salary to $290,000 and similarly amended his at‑will employment terms to include a 60‑day advance written notice requirement, aligning key executives’ compensation levels and employment protections with broader company benefit structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.