Castellum (CTM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $85.95M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: 11.09%
• EPS Growth: 64.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 238
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 94,612,750
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,462,833
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,762,819
• PEG Ratio: 0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 99.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -52.57
• 1Y Price Target: $3.50
• Price Target Upside: 250.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $61.00M

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.89 ▼(-10.60% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and a technically weak setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Positive contract-related corporate events provide a meaningful offset by improving growth visibility, but valuation support is limited due to unprofitability and no stated dividend.

Positive Factors

Large, Multi-Year Defense Contract Wins

Consistent, large recompete awards and ~$219M of Naval prime contracts materially increase backlog and revenue visibility. Multi-year, mission-critical work embeds the company in prime supply chains, supporting steady cash flow and strategic positioning in defense over the next several years.

Expanded Missile Defense & AI-Enabled Offerings

Winning MDA SHIELD IDIQs broadens addressable market into missile defense and AI-enabled systems. IDIQ structure enables recurring task orders, deepens technical capability, and aligns with sustained defense spending, improving long-term growth and higher-margin service opportunities.

Balance Sheet Strengthening via Debt Reduction

Retiring a note and reducing long-term debt lowers leverage and interest burden, improving financial flexibility. Combined with a reported debt-to-equity improvement, this supports capacity to fund bids, investments, or absorb contract working-capital swings without raising immediate external finance.

Negative Factors

Persistent Unprofitability

Despite modest revenue growth and a solid gross margin, the company reports recurring negative net income and EBIT margins. Sustained unprofitability undermines return generation, limits retained earnings for reinvestment, and necessitates material margin improvement to achieve durable financial health.

Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow

TTM negative operating and free cash flows indicate operations do not convert revenue into cash consistently. This constrains reinvestment, increases reliance on external funding for growth or contract working capital, and raises vulnerability to funding stress during bid or delivery cycles.

Senior Management Turnover and Contracted Role Changes

Recent senior role changes and updated executive employment terms create potential disruption during a phase of rapid contract scaling. Leadership transitions can affect client relationships, program execution and strategic continuity, raising execution risk as the firm integrates larger prime awards.

Castellum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Castellum, Inc. provides services in the areas of cybersecurity, information technology, electronic warfare, information warfare, and information operations. The company offers intelligence analysis, software development, software engineering, program management, strategic and mission planning, information assurance, cybersecurity and policy support, and data analytics services. It serves customers in the Federal government, financial services, healthcare, and other data application sectors. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Castellum generates revenue primarily through leasing its commercial properties to businesses and organizations, which constitutes its main revenue stream. The company benefits from long-term lease agreements, providing steady rental income. Additionally, Castellum engages in property development, which involves constructing new buildings or renovating existing ones to increase their value and appeal. This development activity can lead to significant profits upon sale or leasing of the upgraded properties. The company also capitalizes on the growing demand for sustainable and energy-efficient buildings, which can attract higher rental rates and enhance tenant retention. Partnerships with local governments and other stakeholders for urban development projects further contribute to its revenue by allowing Castellum to expand its portfolio and enhance its market presence.

Castellum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Modest revenue growth and a healthy gross margin are outweighed by persistent losses (negative net income/EBIT margins) and weak liquidity, with negative operating and free cash flow in the TTM. Balance sheet leverage has improved, but profitability remains a key risk.

Income Statement

Castellum's income statement shows a mixed performance. While there is a positive revenue growth rate of 6.33% in the TTM, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 39.28%, but the consistent negative net income and EBIT suggest ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.17 in the TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. However, the return on equity remains negative, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals concerns, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating some efficiency in converting income to cash. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate and operating cash flow coverage ratio suggest liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	50.61M	44.76M	45.24M	42.19M	25.07M	13.34M
Gross Profit	19.22M	18.27M	18.68M	17.60M	11.07M	6.18M
EBITDA	-1.35M	-6.53M	-13.28M	-8.06M	-5.80M	362.29K
Net Income	-3.82M	-9.98M	-17.80M	-14.91M	-7.55M	-2.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	46.25M	37.84M	30.11M	33.04M	30.76M	10.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.82M	12.01M	1.83M	4.64M	2.02M	2.41M
Total Debt	3.30M	11.49M	11.96M	10.11M	11.73M	5.87M
Total Liabilities	9.52M	17.66M	17.16M	15.51M	15.43M	8.01M
Stockholders Equity	36.73M	20.18M	12.95M	17.53M	15.32M	2.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.82M	1.12M	-2.28M	900.88K	-1.36M	1.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-1.68M	1.12M	-2.26M	990.16K	-1.35M	1.01M
Investing Cash Flow	94.97K	221.36K	-440.99K	-339.28K	808.83K	-5.45K
Financing Cash Flow	16.66M	9.08M	-104.62K	1.97M	146.84K	109.00K

Castellum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.99, below the 50-day MA of 1.02, and below the 200-day MA of 1.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTM.

Castellum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LDOS	79 Outperform	$24.04B	17.54	29.51%	0.87%	6.48%	22.17%
BAH	71 Outperform	$10.55B	13.01	74.53%	2.60%	2.42%	3.05%
SAIC	71 Outperform	$4.55B	12.87	23.75%	1.69%	-0.38%	31.38%
PSN	67 Neutral	$7.28B	19.45	15.89%	―	-0.24%	389.03%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
CSPI	57 Neutral	$115.29M	-756.16	-0.27%	0.95%	6.36%	73.88%
CTM	47 Neutral	$85.95M	-14.19	-15.66%	―	11.09%	64.29%

Castellum Corporate Events

Castellum Wins Major Navy Recompete, Extends Growth Momentum

On January 7, 2026, Castellum’s Specialty Systems, Inc. subsidiary was re-awarded a $49.8 million, five-and-a-half-year recompete contract to provide software support activities and cyber engineering for mission-critical systems at the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Lakehurst, including the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System, Advanced Arresting Gear, and other key aircraft launch and recovery and naval aviation support equipment. This contract win, SSI’s third consecutive award on this program and the fourth-largest in Castellum’s history, capped what management described as the most successful year in the company’s history, with Castellum securing approximately $219 million across three major Naval prime contracts in 2025, reinforcing its position as a growing defense technology contractor with a strong backlog and deeper embedded role in U.S. naval aviation operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.

Castellum updates senior executive compensation and contracts

Effective January 1, 2026, Castellum, Inc. implemented changes to its senior executive employment arrangements, including compensation and notice provisions. The company entered into an at‑will employment agreement with General Counsel Tammy L. Martin, providing her an annual base salary of $290,000 and access to standard employee benefit plans, while requiring either party to give 60 days’ written notice before termination. On the same date, Castellum raised Chief Operating Officer Andrew Merriman’s annual base salary to $290,000 and similarly amended his at‑will employment terms to include a 60‑day advance written notice requirement, aligning key executives’ compensation levels and employment protections with broader company benefit structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Secures Missile Defense Agency Contracts

Jay O. Wright resigned from his roles at Castellum, Inc., effective December 31, 2025, with Tammy L. Martin appointed as General Counsel and Secretary starting January 1, 2026. On December 8, 2025, Castellum announced the award of multiple Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contracts, enhancing its position in delivering AI-enabled, multi-domain defense solutions and supporting national defense objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Completes $2 Million Debt Paydown

On November 13, 2025, Castellum, Inc. announced the completion of a $2 million debt paydown, fully retiring its note payable to Robert Eisiminger. This achievement marks a significant milestone in the company’s financial strategy, reducing long-term debt to zero and enhancing its ability to invest in business development, thereby strengthening its position to capture major prime contract opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTM) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum stock, see the CTM Stock Forecast page.