Carlisle Companies (CSL) AI Stock Analysis

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Carlisle Companies

(NYSE:CSL)

Select Model

Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$390.00

▲(14.24% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26

CSL scores well primarily on strong financial performance—especially robust free cash flow and solid margins—supported by a bullish technical trend and constructive 2026 guidance with significant buybacks. The score is tempered by earnings/margin volatility, some balance-sheet comparability uncertainty, overbought technical readings, and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~20.8, ~1.06% yield).

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent >$1B operating cash flow and near-$1B free cash flow provide durable internal funding for buybacks, dividends, bolt-on M&A and capex. Strong cash conversion cushions the business through construction cycles and funds strategic reinvestment without overreliance on external financing.

High ROIC & margins

Sustained high EBITDA margins and ~25% ROIC signal structural competitive advantages: pricing power, efficient capital deployment and scale in building-envelope solutions. These metrics support durable shareholder returns and provide scope to defend margins through product mix and operational improvements.

Product innovation & strategy

Clear innovation targets, recent product launches and higher R&D emphasis create a durable pipeline of differentiated systems. Raising the share of newer products reduces commodity exposure, supports higher-margin system sales andhelps sustain long-term growth and defensibility in specifications-driven construction channels.

Negative Factors

End‑market softness

Persistent weakness in new commercial and residential construction lowers volumes and creates prolonged cadence risk. Reduced activity shrinks fixed‑cost coverage and pressurizes unit economics, meaning recovery timing and margin normalization depend on a cyclical upturn rather than company-specific fixes.

Earnings & margin volatility

Material quarter‑to‑quarter margin swings and income variability undermine predictability for capital allocation and stretch the assumption set behind buybacks and Vision 2030 targets. Volatility reflects sensitivity to volume, raw materials and absorption of fixed costs, creating recurring execution risk.

Balance‑sheet comparability uncertainty

A sudden reporting shift to zero reported debt and lower TTM assets complicates leverage assessment and credit analysis. This reporting or classification discontinuity reduces transparency about true financial flexibility, making long‑term funding and covenant risk harder to evaluate reliably.

Carlisle Companies (CSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$13.96B

Dividend Yield1.28%

Average Volume (3M)505.72K

Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5

Beta (1Y)1.19

Revenue Growth0.14%

EPS Growth3.88%

CountryUS

Employees5,500

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryConstruction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.90

Shares Outstanding40,883,870

10 Day Avg. Volume430,004

30 Day Avg. Volume505,721

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.48

Price to Book (P/B)7.63

Price to Sales (P/S)2.73

P/FCF Ratio14.10

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.19

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.95

Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.10

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$425.00

Price Target Upside24.49% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

EPS Forecast (FY)20.83

Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.08B

Carlisle Companies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarlisle Companies Incorporated operates as a diversified manufacturer of engineered products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Carlisle Construction Materials, Carlisle Interconnect Technologies, and Carlisle Fluid Technologies. The Carlisle Construction Materials segment produces building envelopes for commercial, industrial, and residential buildings, including single-ply roofing products, rigid foam insulations, spray polyurethane foam, architectural metal products, heating, ventilation and air conditioning hardware and sealants, waterproofing products, and air and vapor barrier systems. The Carlisle Interconnect Technologies segment produces wires and cables, including optical fiber for the commercial aerospace, military and defense electronics, medical device, industrial, and test and measurement markets. It also offers sensors, connectors, contacts, cable assemblies, complex harnesses, racks, trays, and installation kits, as well as engineering and certification services. The Carlisle Fluid Technologies segment produces engineered liquid products, powder products, sealants and adhesives finishing equipment, and integrated system solutions for spraying, pumping, mixing, metering, and curing of coatings used in the automotive manufacture, general industrial, protective coating, wood, and specialty and automotive refinishing markets. The company sells its products under the Carlisle, Binks, DeVilbiss, Ransburg, BGK, MS Powder, Thermax, Tri-Star, LHi Technology, Providien, SynTec, Weatherbond, Hunter Panels, Resitrix, Hertalan, Insulfoam, and Versico brands. Carlisle Companies Incorporated was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

How the Company Makes MoneyCarlisle makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling building-envelope and roofing products, with the majority of revenue generated through its Carlisle Construction Materials segment. Revenue is earned from (1) product sales of commercial roofing systems and components (e.g., single-ply roofing membranes and related accessories), (2) sales of insulation and other building-envelope materials used in new construction and re-roofing projects, and (3) associated system components that are typically specified together for performance and compatibility. The company sells largely through distribution channels and building-products supply networks to contractors and building owners, with demand influenced by non-residential construction activity and the re-roofing/retrofit cycle. Profitability is driven by volume, product mix (higher-value system solutions vs. commodity inputs), pricing, manufacturing efficiency, and raw-material cost management.

Carlisle Companies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which segments are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.

Chart InsightsCarlisle Companies' revenue from Construction Materials shows resilience amid market challenges, driven by stable reroofing demand, which constitutes a significant portion of this segment. Despite a flat revenue forecast for 2025, the company's focus on product innovation and strategic acquisitions under Vision 2030 aims to bolster future growth. However, the Weatherproofing Technologies segment faces headwinds from high interest rates impacting new construction, reflected in its performance decline. The company's disciplined capital deployment and commitment to shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividend increases provide a buffer against market uncertainties.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Carlisle Companies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call struck a constructive overall tone: Carlisle reported strong full-year financial results driven by high ROIC (≈25%), robust cash generation (operating cash flow > $1B and free cash flow of $972M), aggressive capital returns ($1.3B buybacks and a 10% dividend increase), and clear long-term targets under Vision 2030 supported by product innovation and operational improvements. Near-term headwinds were also acknowledged—organic revenue declines, margin compression in Q4 (300 bps) and a 13% drop in quarterly EPS, soft new construction and residential markets, and a muted M&A environment due to elevated seller valuations. Management provided a conservative but constructive 2026 outlook (low single-digit revenue growth, ~50 bps EBITDA expansion, $1B planned buybacks) and reiterated strategic levers (COS, innovation, disciplined M&A) to reach long-term goals. Overall, positives around cash generation, returns, strategic clarity and innovation outweigh the near-term demand and margin pressures.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Full-Year Revenue and Profitability

Full-year 2025 revenue of $5.0 billion; adjusted EPS of $19.40; adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.4%; ROIC approximately 25% (management describes as best-in-class).

Strong Cash Generation and Free Cash Flow

Fourth consecutive year with operating cash flow > $1.0 billion; record free cash flow of $972 million in 2025 representing a 19.4% free cash flow margin (well ahead of the Vision 2030 target of 15%).

Substantial Capital Returns to Shareholders

Returned nearly $1.5 billion in 2025 including $1.3 billion of share repurchases and $181 million of dividends; August marked the 49th consecutive annual dividend increase (up 10% year-over-year).

Quarterly Revenue Growth and Acquisition Contributions

Q4 consolidated revenue approximately $1.1 billion, up 0.4% year-over-year; recent acquisitions (PlastiFab, ThermoFoam, Bonded Logic) contributed ~$30 million incremental revenue in Q4.

Reaffirmation of Vision 2030 and Innovation Targets

Management reaffirmed Vision 2030 targets (adjusted EPS of $40, ROIC >25%) and increased R&D/product development ambition (targeting 3% of sales), with goal that 25% of revenue comes from products ≤5 years old by 2030; several commercial product launches (ThermaFin, temperature-sensing gun, RapidLock, SameShield, Appeal, VP Tech) already generating revenue.

Operational Excellence & Technology Adoption

Continued deployment of Carlisle Operating System (COS), expansion of automation and AI across manufacturing sites to improve changeover times, scrap, safety and quality; management expects COS and self-help to drive ~50 bps of consolidated EBITDA margin expansion in 2026.

Healthy Liquidity and Disciplined Capital Allocation

Strong balance sheet with $1.1 billion cash and $1.0 billion available on revolver at year-end; disciplined M&A approach focused on bolt-ons (examples: MTL, PlastiFab, ThermoFoam, Bonded Logic) and ongoing plan to repurchase ~$1 billion of shares in 2026.

Negative Updates

Organic Revenue Declines and End-Market Softness

Organic consolidated revenue declined 3% in Q4 2025; CCM revenue down 0.8% in Q4; CWT organic revenue declined 7% in Q4 due to softer residential and nonresidential new construction demand.

Quarterly Profitability Pressure and EPS Decline

Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $249 million with margin of 22.1%, a 300 basis-point decline year-over-year; adjusted EPS for the quarter was $3.90, down 13% year-over-year, driven by lower organic earnings and higher interest expense.

Segment Margin and EBITDA Declines

CCM adjusted EBITDA declined 10% in Q4 with margin down 260 bps to 26.8%; CWT adjusted EBITDA declined 10% with margin down 240 bps to 15.9%, partly due to higher unit costs and fixed-cost absorption on lower volumes.

Weak New Construction and Near-Term Cadence Risk

New commercial construction remained soft in 2025 and management is not projecting a sharp recovery in 2026; guidance assumes Q1 2026 revenue down low-single-digits, Q2 flat, with a stronger second half—introducing near-term cadence risk.

M&A Market Headwinds

M&A market described as challenging with sellers seeking elevated valuations for quality assets; management remained disciplined and limited deployable opportunities in 2025 (acquisitions were $110 million), potentially slowing inorganic progress toward Vision 2030 if valuations persist.

Cost and Interest Headwinds

Higher interest expense contributed to the EPS decline; CWT faced increased unit costs from lower volumes (higher fixed-cost absorption) and mixed raw material trends (some deflationary inputs but steel pressure), limiting near-term margin recovery.

Company Guidance

Carlisle guided 2026 to consolidated revenue growth of low single digits (Q1 down low-single-digits, Q2 flat, with a stronger second half), about +50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion versus 2025, a $1.0 billion share repurchase plan, and an expected ROIC of ~25% with free cash flow margin >15%; this guidance is framed against 2025 results of $5.0 billion revenue, $19.40 adjusted EPS, 24.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, ~25% ROIC, $972 million free cash flow (19.4% margin), $1.3 billion of share repurchases and $181 million of dividends, and Q4 2025 of ~$1.1 billion revenue, $249 million adjusted EBITDA (22.1% margin) and $3.90 adjusted EPS (CCM Q4 revenue $827M, EBITDA $222M, 26.8% margin; CWT Q4 revenue $301M, EBITDA $48M, 15.9% margin); management reiterated Vision 2030 targets — $40 adjusted EPS, >25% ROIC, enterprise EBITDA ≥25% (CCM >30%, CWT >25%), R&D to 3% of sales and 25% of revenue from products ≤5 years old — while assuming largely flat pricing and mixed raw-material dynamics with tailwinds beginning in Q2.

Carlisle Companies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is strong, led by standout cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.10B; free cash flow ~$0.97B and solid cash conversion). Profitability and margins are healthy for the industry, with renewed TTM revenue growth (~9.6%). Offsetting factors are earnings/margin volatility (net income down from 2024 to TTM) and some uncertainty in the latest balance sheet comparability (sharp move to reported zero debt and unusually low TTM assets versus prior years).

Income Statement

Very Positive

CSL shows strong profitability for a Construction company, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin ~35.7% and net margin ~14.8%, supported by healthy operating profitability. Revenue growth is positive in TTM (about 9.6%) and was also positive in 2024, indicating resilience after the 2023 revenue decline. The key weakness is earnings volatility: net income fell sharply from 2024 to TTM despite similar revenue, and margins stepped down from 2024’s peak levels.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet improved meaningfully versus prior years, with leverage trending down from 2021–2024 and very strong reported TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) positioning (debt shown as 0 and debt-to-equity 0). Profitability on equity is also strong (return on equity ~36.7% in TTM, and even higher in 2024), highlighting efficient capital use. The main concern is consistency and comparability: the sharp shift from meaningful debt in 2024 to zero debt in TTM, alongside TTM total assets appearing unusually low versus prior years, suggests potential reporting or classification differences that add uncertainty to the leverage read-through.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash generation is a standout. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$1.10B) with free cash flow near ~$0.97B, and free cash flow is sizable relative to earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.88), indicating good cash conversion. The main weakness is volatility: free cash flow growth dipped in 2024 and then rebounded strongly in TTM, implying swings that investors should monitor for working-capital or cycle sensitivity.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.02B	5.00B	4.59B	5.45B	3.84B
Gross Profit	1.79B	1.89B	1.63B	1.87B	1.10B
EBITDA	1.22B	1.36B	1.21B	1.46B	796.30M
Net Income	740.70M	1.31B	767.40M	924.00M	421.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.26B	5.82B	6.62B	7.22B	7.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.11B	753.50M	576.70M	364.80M	324.40M
Total Debt	2.88B	1.99B	2.32B	2.62B	2.99B
Total Liabilities	4.47B	3.35B	3.79B	4.20B	4.62B
Stockholders Equity	1.80B	2.46B	2.83B	3.02B	2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	970.60M	945.80M	1.07B	817.40M	292.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.10B	1.06B	1.21B	1.00B	426.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-240.40M	1.23B	352.40M	-61.10M	-1.49B
Financing Cash Flow	-503.70M	-2.11B	-1.35B	-862.00M	488.10M

Carlisle Companies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price341.40

Price Trends

50DMA

369.51

Negative

100DMA

345.81

Negative

200DMA

357.46

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-8.52

Positive

RSI

27.62

Positive

STOCH

14.44

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 341.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 383.78, below the 50-day MA of 369.51, and below the 200-day MA of 357.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.62 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CSL.

Carlisle Companies Risk Analysis

Carlisle Companies disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlisle Companies reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carlisle Companies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSL	77 Outperform	$13.96B	18.48	36.69%	1.28%	0.14%	3.88%
WMS	76 Outperform	$10.69B	30.06	25.82%	0.47%	2.48%	-6.92%
AWI	72 Outperform	$7.17B	31.80	36.09%	0.66%	15.10%	23.35%
MAS	64 Neutral	$12.53B	16.37	-537.31%	1.94%	-3.62%	3.41%
OC	64 Neutral	$8.56B	-17.89	-11.39%	2.43%	3.47%	-148.53%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BLDR	52 Neutral	$9.74B	90.31	10.11%	―	-6.44%	-48.84%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CSL

Carlisle Companies

341.40

2.56

0.76%

AWI

Armstrong World

167.30

26.73

19.02%

BLDR

Builders Firstsource

88.09

-40.06

-31.26%

MAS

Masco

61.52

-8.25

-11.83%

Owens Corning

106.46

-35.08

-24.79%

WMS

Advanced Drainage Systems

137.27

27.89

25.50%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026