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Carrefour SA (CRRFY)
OTHER OTC:CRRFY
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Carrefour SA
(OTC:CRRFY)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(14.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening 2025 fundamentals (revenue decline, margin compression, and higher leverage), partly stabilized by still-solid free cash flow. Technicals are mildly supportive (price above major moving averages with positive MACD), and the earnings call was constructive with reiterated 2026 free-cash-flow and cost-savings targets. Valuation is a balance of a high dividend yield against an elevated P/E.
Positive Factors
Market leadership in France
Sustained market share (22%) and a France core operating margin milestone (3.0%) indicate structural strength in Carrefour's home market. Leadership supports stable traffic, pricing leverage and higher operating resilience, underpinning durable cash flows and a platform for roll-out of convenience formats.
Consistent cash generation and cost savings
Recurring positive free cash flow and a €1.1bn annual cost-saving program provide lasting financial ballast. This combination funds dividends, deleveraging and capex flexibility, while the savings program can sustainably improve operating margins absent revenue recovery, strengthening long-term financial durability.
Improving profitability in Spain (and select LATAM execution)
Material margin expansion and recurring income growth in Spain reflect durable commercial execution and price/fresh-product strength. Geographic profit diversification, plus e‑commerce gains in Latin America, reduces reliance on a single market and supports group-level margin recovery over the medium term.
Negative Factors
2025 revenue and margin deterioration
A sharp 2025 revenue decline and compressed gross/net margins highlight structural vulnerability in grocery retail to price competition and cost pressure. Persistently low single-digit operating margins limit earnings buffer, reduce ROE and make recovery dependent on sustained execution and pricing power.
Higher leverage and compressed returns
Material increase in leverage (D/E 2.31) alongside sharply lower ROE reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Elevated debt limits ability to fund growth or absorb shocks, making long-term recovery more dependent on cash generation and asset disposals.
Dilutive acquisition integration (Cora & Match)
The Cora & Match integration produced recurring losses and one-off costs, weighing on profitability and consuming cash. Protracted integration dilution lowers ROIC and increases execution risk; failure to fully realize synergies would structurally impair margin improvement and shareholder returns.
Carrefour SA (CRRFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.31B
Dividend Yield7.74%
Average Volume (3M)7.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.7
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth4.96%
EPS Growth-59.90%
CountryUS
Employees324,750
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding3,681,574,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume7,420
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.57
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio4.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.74
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$97.83B
Carrefour SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCarrefour SA is a multinational retail corporation headquartered in France, operating a chain of hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores. It is one of the largest retail chains in the world, offering a wide range of products including groceries, clothing, electronics, and household goods. Carrefour operates across various formats, including hypermarkets, supermarkets, and proximity stores, catering to diverse customer needs in multiple countries.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarrefour generates revenue primarily through the sale of consumer goods in its retail outlets. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales of products, including food and non-food items, across its various store formats. Key revenue streams include grocery sales, perishables, and private label products, which generally yield higher profit margins. Additionally, Carrefour benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers, allowing for competitive pricing and promotions. The company also explores e-commerce as a growing revenue channel, enhancing its online shopping capabilities to meet changing consumer preferences. Furthermore, Carrefour engages in loyalty programs and promotional activities to drive customer retention and increase sales volume.
Carrefour SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly constructive operational and financial picture: strong execution in France (margin milestone and market-share gains) and Spain (top-line and margin expansion), meaningful cost savings (EUR 1.1bn) and solid cash generation (net free cash flow ≈ EUR 1.565bn ex-Italy). Management confirmed controlled Cora & Match integration, tangible retail and e‑commerce wins in Latin America, and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy. Offsets included short-term dilution from Cora & Match (EUR 120m), notable FX and Argentina headwinds (~EUR 100m each), the Italy exit impact (net discontinued loss EUR 657m), a decline in gross margin (-22 bps) and stable EBITDA (no growth). Management expressed confidence for 2026 and reiterated targets (including EUR 130m synergies by 2027 and a EUR 1.7bn free cash flow ambition), positioning the group to improve underlying performance. Overall, positives in execution, cost discipline and cash generation slightly outweigh near-term headwinds and one-off impacts.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
France — Margin Milestone and Market Share Gain
Carrefour France core operating margin reached 3.0% (milestone), legacy recurring operating income grew 11.3% in 2025 and margin expanded by 31 basis points. Group market share in France rose to 22% (highest since 2015). Customer satisfaction improved (NPS +3 points in Q4) and Carrefour opened a record 456 new convenience stores in 2025.
Spain — Strong Top-line and Profitability
Carrefour Spain delivered like-for-like food sales growth of +2.3% in 2025 and nonfood +0.7% like-for-like. Recurring operating income increased 13.5% to EUR 463 million and operating margin expanded 45 basis points to 4.2%, driven by price leadership and strong fresh-product performance.
Cash Generation and Cost Savings
Net free cash flow amounted to EUR 1.565 billion in 2025 excluding Italy (net free cash flow excluding real estate > ~EUR 1 billion). The group's cost savings program delivered EUR 1.1 billion of annual savings (ex-Italy). SG&A improved to 14.4% of sales (down 16 bps). CapEx reduced to EUR 1.523 billion in 2025 as investment in non-core markets slowed.
Cora & Match Integration Progress and Commercial Response
Integration OpEx was EUR 145 million (below expected EUR 150m) and CapEx EUR 85 million (below expected EUR 100m). Commercial changes (Carrefour pricing and private labels) increased private-label penetration by ~10 percentage points; number of tickets rose +2.9% in Q4 and NPS improved ~20 points post-integration. Synergies target of EUR 130 million by 2027 confirmed.
Latin America — Select Operational Wins
Despite a challenging macro, Brazil retail food sales grew +4.3% like-for-like and e-commerce grew +41% in Q4. Argentina delivered very strong like-for-like growth of +24% (market leadership gains). Brazil recurring operating income was EUR 709 million (margin ~4%).
Shareholder Returns and Capital Discipline
Board will propose an ordinary dividend of EUR 0.97 per share (≈ +5.4%) and, subject to Romania disposal closing, a special dividend of EUR 150 million (≈ EUR 0.21/share), totaling EUR 1.18/share and implying a ~8.3% cash yield on Dec 31, 2025 share price. Net debt stood close to EUR 4 billion with recent cash generation covering dividends and related items.
Negative Updates
Cora & Match — Short-Term Dilutive Impact
Cora & Match posted a recurring operating loss of EUR 120 million in 2025, which includes EUR 95 million of non-recurring integration costs. Excluding those costs, Cora & Match still showed a negative recurring operating income (~EUR 25 million) in 2025 and compression of gross margin versus historical levels due to price alignment and increased promotions.
Foreign Exchange and Argentina Hit Results
Group recurring operating income was penalized by a negative ForEx effect of ~EUR 102 million; Latin America reported a currency-related decline of approximately EUR 101 million. Argentina recurring operating income contribution fell to EUR 70 million in 2025 from EUR 115 million in 2024.
EBITDA and Gross Margin Pressure
EBITDA was broadly stable year-over-year (no growth). The group's gross margin rate declined by 22 basis points, reflecting price investment and the structural shift to more franchise-operated stores, which dampened gross margin even as operating income improved in the core.
Discontinued Operations and Italy Exit Costs
Net income from discontinued operations was negative EUR 657 million, mainly related to the exit of Italy. The Italy disposal impacted net debt by only EUR 181 million at closing (lower than the planned EUR 240 million), creating a cash/timing headwind in 2025.
Higher Tax Charge
Tax expense increased to EUR 516 million in 2025 (vs. EUR 302 million in 2024), driven by higher pre-tax income, a temporary extra corporate tax for large companies in France and some non-deductible expenses, reducing net income conversion.
Challenges in Brazil and Certain European Markets
Brazil faced a tough macro (record-high interest rates) with negative volumes, particularly in Cash & Carry—improvement from mid-single-digit negative in Q3 to low-single-digit negative in Q4. Poland saw a slowdown in volumes and Romania remains low-margin (operating margin ~1% and net free cash flow of -EUR 53 million in 2025).
Working Capital and Receivables Financing
Disclosures show roughly EUR 1.4 billion of factored receivables (mainly Brazil credit card receivables and some franchisee receivables). The increase in receivables weighed on working capital and was neutral year-over-year on receivables sales, but it reduced net free cash flow in 2025.
Company Guidance
Management reiterated confident 2026 guidance and quantified targets: a net free cash flow target of €1.7bn for 2026 (versus €1.565bn in 2025 excluding Italy), supported by a €75m benefit from Brazilian debt refinancing and a cost‑savings program already delivering €1.1bn pa (ex‑Italy); they confirmed €130m of Cora & Match synergies by 2027 (Cora integration in 2025: €145m OpEx vs €150m expected, €85m CapEx vs €100m expected, €95m non‑recurring costs; Cora ROI −€120m in 2025 or −€25m ex‑one‑offs) and said no further integration costs are expected in 2026. Capital allocation guidance: propose ordinary dividend €0.97/sh (+5.4% y/y) and, subject to Romania closing (EV €823m, 4.8x 2025 EBITDA; Romania FY25 margin 1%, NFF −€53m), a special €150m (€0.21/sh) for a total €1.18/sh (~8.3% cash yield on 31‑Dec‑2025 price). Other reference metrics cited on the call include FY25 recurring operating income €2.158bn (2.6% of net sales), core recurring margin 2.9% (France core 3%), adjusted EPS €1.60 and net debt ~€4bn; more 2026 detail to be provided with tomorrow’s strategic plan.Carrefour SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured in 2025: revenue declined (-8.84%), margins compressed (net margin down to 0.38% and gross margin down to 16.61%), and leverage rose (debt-to-equity up to 2.31). The main offset is continued positive cash generation (2025 operating cash flow €3.41B and free cash flow €1.95B), despite free cash flow declining year over year.Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile, with growth in 2022–2024 but a sharp decline in 2025 (-8.84%). Profitability is thin and worsening: net margin fell from 1.95% (2023) to 0.83% (2024) and 0.38% (2025), alongside a meaningful drop in gross margin (19.44% in 2024 to 16.61% in 2025). Operating profitability (EBIT margin) has remained low and relatively flat (~2–3%), indicating limited pricing power and sensitivity to cost inflation—typical for food retail, but 2025 shows clear pressure.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage increased materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity rising to 2.31 from 1.47 in 2024, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Equity is relatively stable (~€10–11B), but returns on equity have compressed sharply (14.38% in 2023 to 6.68% in 2024 and 2.79% in 2025), reflecting weaker earnings. Total assets are broadly steady, but the higher debt load combined with lower profitability increases risk if operating conditions remain pressured.42
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains positive: operating cash flow was €3.41B and free cash flow €1.95B in 2025, though both declined versus 2024 and free cash flow growth was negative (-11.49%). Cash flow quality is mixed: free cash flow is consistently below net income (about 0.57–0.60x historically), suggesting a meaningful cash drag from working capital and/or capital spending needs. Still, the company continues to produce solid absolute free cash flow, which is a key stabilizer in a low-margin grocery business.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 80.71B | 87.27B | 84.91B | 83.09B | 71.76B |
| Gross Profit | 13.41B | 16.97B | 15.65B | 14.34B | 13.03B |
| EBITDA | 4.06B | 4.30B | 4.34B | 3.90B | 3.35B |
| Net Income | 306.41M | 723.00M | 1.66B | 1.35B | 1.07B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 55.19B | 57.36B | 56.17B | 56.55B | 47.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.42B | 6.89B | 6.68B | 5.43B | 3.99B |
| Total Debt | 25.33B | 15.89B | 20.09B | 19.23B | 15.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.53B | 44.88B | 42.78B | 43.37B | 35.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.97B | 10.82B | 11.54B | 11.14B | 10.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.95B | 2.43B | 2.80B | 2.34B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.41B | 4.20B | 4.65B | 4.22B | 3.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -2.37B | -739.00M | -2.13B | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.49B | -1.08B | -2.72B | -326.00M | -3.06B |
Carrefour SA Technical Analysis
Positive
3.06
Price Trends
3.47
Positive
3.31
Positive
3.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
58.41
Neutral
93.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRRFY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.62, below the 50-day MA of 3.47, and below the 200-day MA of 3.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CRRFY.
Carrefour SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $7.67B | 15.05 | 38.21% | ― | 16.60% | 49.76% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $46.91B | 40.33 | 13.04% | 2.15% | -1.77% | -70.83% | |
61 Neutral | $9.06B | 8.31 | 28.54% | 3.49% | 2.08% | -1.63% | |
58 Neutral | $1.67B | 17.84 | 6.83% | 2.06% | 3.11% | 6.54% | |
57 Neutral | $13.31B | 31.68 | 3.00% | 7.74% | 4.96% | -59.90% | |
45 Neutral | $574.20M | -4.43 | -19.78% | ― | 7.22% | -108.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
CRRFY
Carrefour SA
3.61
0.90
33.27%
KR
Kroger Company
73.28
9.11
14.20%
WMK
Weis Markets
65.99
-12.12
-15.52%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
84.33
-56.49
-40.12%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
5.94
-6.61
-52.67%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
17.28
-3.70
-17.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.