Carrefour SA (CRRFY)
OTHER OTC:CRRFY
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Carrefour SA
(OTC:CRRFY)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(30.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:02/21/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening 2025 fundamentals (revenue decline, margin compression, and higher leverage), partly stabilized by still-solid free cash flow. Technicals are mildly supportive (price above major moving averages with positive MACD), and the earnings call was constructive with reiterated 2026 free-cash-flow and cost-savings targets. Valuation is a balance of a high dividend yield against an elevated P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Absolute free cash flow near €2bn provides a durable liquidity buffer in a low-margin retail model. Continued positive FCF funds dividends, capex and deleveraging flexibility, supporting strategic moves and resilience to cyclical pressures over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and margin compression
A sharp 2025 revenue decline with compressed gross and net margins highlights structural vulnerability: retail pricing pressure and mix shifts can permanently depress profitability. If sustained, this limits reinvestment capacity and weakens earnings power over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Absolute free cash flow near €2bn provides a durable liquidity buffer in a low-margin retail model. Continued positive FCF funds dividends, capex and deleveraging flexibility, supporting strategic moves and resilience to cyclical pressures over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Carrefour SA (CRRFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.66B
Dividend Yield7.74%
Average Volume (3M)7.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.3
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth0.45%
EPS Growth-56.68%
CountryUS
Employees324,750
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding3,681,574,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume7,420
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.57
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio4.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.00
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$96.41B
Carrefour SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carrefour SA is a multinational retail corporation headquartered in France, operating a chain of hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores. It is one of the largest retail chains in the world, offering a wide range of products including g...
How the Company Makes Money
Carrefour primarily makes money by selling goods to consumers and business customers through its retail store network and online channels. Its core revenue stream is merchandise sales—mainly food and fast-moving consumer goods—where it earns a gro...
Carrefour SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly constructive operational and financial picture: strong execution in France (margin milestone and market-share gains) and Spain (top-line and margin expansion), meaningful cost savings (EUR 1.1bn) and solid cash generation (net free cash flow ≈ EUR 1.565bn ex-Italy). Management confirmed controlled Cora & Match integration, tangible retail and e‑commerce wins in Latin America, and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy. Offsets included short-term dilution from Cora & Match (EUR 120m), notable FX and Argentina headwinds (~EUR 100m each), the Italy exit impact (net discontinued loss EUR 657m), a decline in gross margin (-22 bps) and stable EBITDA (no growth). Management expressed confidence for 2026 and reiterated targets (including EUR 130m synergies by 2027 and a EUR 1.7bn free cash flow ambition), positioning the group to improve underlying performance. Overall, positives in execution, cost discipline and cash generation slightly outweigh near-term headwinds and one-off impacts.Positive Updates
France — Margin Milestone and Market Share Gain
Carrefour France core operating margin reached 3.0% (milestone), legacy recurring operating income grew 11.3% in 2025 and margin expanded by 31 basis points. Group market share in France rose to 22% (highest since 2015). Customer satisfaction improved (NPS +3 points in Q4) and Carrefour opened a record 456 new convenience stores in 2025.
Negative Updates
Cora & Match — Short-Term Dilutive Impact
Cora & Match posted a recurring operating loss of EUR 120 million in 2025, which includes EUR 95 million of non-recurring integration costs. Excluding those costs, Cora & Match still showed a negative recurring operating income (~EUR 25 million) in 2025 and compression of gross margin versus historical levels due to price alignment and increased promotions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
France — Margin Milestone and Market Share Gain
Carrefour France core operating margin reached 3.0% (milestone), legacy recurring operating income grew 11.3% in 2025 and margin expanded by 31 basis points. Group market share in France rose to 22% (highest since 2015). Customer satisfaction improved (NPS +3 points in Q4) and Carrefour opened a record 456 new convenience stores in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated confident 2026 guidance and quantified targets: a net free cash flow target of €1.7bn for 2026 (versus €1.565bn in 2025 excluding Italy), supported by a €75m benefit from Brazilian debt refinancing and a cost‑savings program already delivering €1.1bn pa (ex‑Italy); they confirmed €130m of Cora & Match synergies by 2027 (Cora integration in 2025: €145m OpEx vs €150m expected, €85m CapEx vs €100m expected, €95m non‑recurring costs; Cora ROI −€120m in 2025 or −€25m ex‑one‑offs) and said no further integration costs are expected in 2026. Capital allocation guidance: propose ordinary dividend €0.97/sh (+5.4% y/y) and, subject to Romania closing (EV €823m, 4.8x 2025 EBITDA; Romania FY25 margin 1%, NFF −€53m), a special €150m (€0.21/sh) for a total €1.18/sh (~8.3% cash yield on 31‑Dec‑2025 price). Other reference metrics cited on the call include FY25 recurring operating income €2.158bn (2.6% of net sales), core recurring margin 2.9% (France core 3%), adjusted EPS €1.60 and net debt ~€4bn; more 2026 detail to be provided with tomorrow’s strategic plan.Carrefour SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 80.71B | 87.27B | 84.91B | 83.09B | 71.76B |
| Gross Profit | 13.41B | 16.97B | 15.65B | 14.34B | 13.03B |
| EBITDA | 4.06B | 4.30B | 4.34B | 3.90B | 3.35B |
| Net Income | 306.41M | 723.00M | 1.66B | 1.35B | 1.07B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 55.19B | 57.36B | 56.17B | 56.55B | 47.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.42B | 6.89B | 6.68B | 5.43B | 3.99B |
| Total Debt | 25.33B | 15.89B | 20.09B | 19.23B | 15.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.53B | 44.88B | 42.78B | 43.37B | 35.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.97B | 10.82B | 11.54B | 11.14B | 10.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.95B | 2.43B | 2.80B | 2.34B | 2.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.41B | 4.20B | 4.65B | 4.22B | 3.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -2.37B | -739.00M | -2.13B | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.49B | -1.08B | -2.72B | -326.00M | -3.06B |
Carrefour SA Technical Analysis
Positive
3.06
Price Trends
3.81
Positive
3.63
Positive
3.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
58.06
Neutral
71.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRRFY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.97, below the 50-day MA of 3.81, and below the 200-day MA of 3.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CRRFY.
Carrefour SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.78B | 15.16 | 7.49% | 2.06% | 4.14% | -0.27% | |
67 Neutral | $8.32B | 11.19 | 36.06% | ― | 10.25% | 17.03% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $14.66B | 3.33 | 3.00% | 7.74% | 0.45% | -56.68% | |
55 Neutral | $42.35B | 11.48 | 13.04% | 2.15% | 0.35% | -57.81% | |
51 Neutral | $8.43B | -4.74 | 8.17% | 3.49% | 3.46% | -80.55% | |
48 Neutral | $804.24M | -0.99 | -36.58% | ― | 6.04% | -2370.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
CRRFY
Carrefour SA
4.03
0.86
27.20%
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WMK
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-46.28%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
8.13
-5.31
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ACI
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17.05
-4.25
-19.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.