Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 469.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: 26.34%
• EPS Growth: -32.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 357
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 2.25
• Shares Outstanding: 31,610,975
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 445,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 469,299
• PEG Ratio: 0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.12
• 1Y Price Target: $56.75
• Price Target Upside: 16.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $52.00 ▲(6.60% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong margins and cash flow) and a notably positive earnings outlook with raised guidance. Offsetting factors include balance-sheet leverage risk and a relatively high P/E with no dividend yield, while technicals are constructive but not strongly bullish.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained free cash flow growth and near-1 FCF-to-net-income conversion indicate durable internal funding. This high-quality cash generation supports debt repayment, commercial investment, potential M&A, and cushions execution risk, materially improving strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months.

Strong gross and operating margins

A ~56.7% gross margin reflects product-level pricing power and efficient cost structure tied to specialty formulations. Sustained margin breadth supports durable operating cash flow and reinvestment capacity, making earnings less sensitive to modest volume swings and aiding medium-term profitability resilience.

Consistent revenue growth and diversified product drivers

Double-digit revenue growth, driven by Jornay PM prescription gains and a growing pain portfolio, demonstrates scalable commercial traction. Raised guidance and recurring top-line momentum reflect durable demand and a multi-product revenue base that supports sustained growth over the coming 2–6 months.

Negative Factors

High financial leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 3.6 signals substantial leverage that can restrict strategic flexibility and elevate interest expense sensitivity. Even with refinancing, high leverage limits buffers against adverse sales or reimbursement changes and increases refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.

Declining net margin / gross-to-net variability

A pronounced drop in net margin suggests rising expenses, rebates, or channel deductions are eroding realized profitability. Combined with documented gross-to-net variability, this pressure can materially reduce cash flow conversion and shareholder returns unless managed through pricing, mix or cost actions over the next several quarters.

Revenue concentration risk (Jornay PM reliance)

Management's reliance on Jornay PM for a meaningful portion of growth creates product concentration risk. Payer dynamics, competitive entrants, or regulatory shifts affecting a single key product could disproportionately impact revenue and margins, making top-line durability more sensitive to product-specific events.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medicines for pain management. Its portfolio includes Xtampza ER, an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone; Nucynta ER and Nucynta IR, which are extended-release and immediate-release formulations of tapentadol; and Xtampza ER for the management of pain severe enough to require daily, around-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment. The company was formerly known as Collegium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. in October 2003. Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Collegium Pharmaceutical generates revenue primarily through the sales of its prescription medications, particularly Xtampza ER, which is marketed to healthcare providers and pharmacies. The company benefits from a robust revenue model that includes direct sales to pharmacies, as well as potential partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for distribution and marketing support. Key revenue streams also include potential royalties and milestone payments from collaborations with other firms in the pharmaceutical industry. Additionally, Collegium has focused on expanding its product line and developing new formulations, which can further enhance its market presence and revenue potential.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Collegium Pharmaceutical shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with healthy margins and cash flow metrics. However, high debt levels and a declining net profit margin present potential risks. The company should focus on managing its leverage and improving profitability to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Collegium Pharmaceutical has shown a consistent revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 7.08%. The gross profit margin is strong at 56.69%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 5.13% from 10.96% in the previous year, suggesting increased expenses or other financial pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting good operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.57, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity has decreased to 15.60% from 30.23% in the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the high leverage suggests a lower proportion of equity in the capital structure.

Cash Flow

Collegium Pharmaceutical has demonstrated strong cash flow performance with a 43.36% growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, indicating a solid conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing efficient cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	757.07M	631.45M	566.77M	463.93M	276.87M	310.02M
Gross Profit	433.17M	377.34M	326.17M	209.49M	150.62M	179.84M
EBITDA	392.72M	341.70M	308.33M	173.31M	86.56M	118.01M
Net Income	58.44M	69.19M	48.16M	-25.00M	71.52M	26.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.66B	1.14B	1.17B	692.08M	643.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	305.71M	162.76M	310.55M	173.69M	186.43M	174.12M
Total Debt	936.27M	859.30M	674.28M	709.17M	258.75M	266.58M
Total Liabilities	1.33B	1.43B	947.88M	979.29M	489.15M	457.81M
Stockholders Equity	274.81M	228.84M	195.43M	194.84M	202.93M	186.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	289.30M	203.33M	274.29M	122.61M	101.61M	-279.83M
Operating Cash Flow	290.92M	204.98M	274.75M	124.23M	103.56M	93.94M
Investing Cash Flow	-55.23M	-287.76M	-70.81M	-573.69M	-1.94M	-373.77M
Financing Cash Flow	-129.70M	-60.60M	-140.18M	436.72M	-89.30M	286.47M

Collegium Pharmaceutical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COLL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.21, above the 50-day MA of 45.31, and above the 200-day MA of 35.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COLL.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMPH	77 Outperform	$1.27B	12.30	14.84%	―	-0.03%	-27.66%
COLL	72 Outperform	$1.54B	30.36	22.96%	―	26.34%	-32.79%
PCRX	69 Neutral	$1.12B	58.33	2.90%	―	3.14%	―
ANIP	64 Neutral	$1.71B	49.70	7.83%	―	48.87%	―
AVDL	58 Neutral	$2.10B	-3,905.45	-0.32%	―	79.88%	99.60%
SUPN	55 Neutral	$2.93B	-150.15	-1.86%	―	4.54%	-130.59%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Collegium Pharmaceutical Corporate Events

Collegium Issues 2026 Guidance Emphasizing Jornay PM Growth

On January 8, 2026, Collegium Pharmaceutical issued 2026 financial guidance, projecting net product revenue between $805 million and $825 million, including $190 million to $200 million from ADHD drug Jornay PM, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $455 million to $475 million, signaling continued reliance on Jornay PM as its primary growth driver. Management highlighted that 2025 delivered record growth and reiterated that they are on track to meet the increased 2025 guidance provided in November—$775 million to $785 million in net revenue and $460 million to $470 million in adjusted EBITDA—while recent moves such as refinancing via a $980 million syndicated credit facility and an authorized generic partnership with Hikma for Nucynta and Nucynta ER are expected to strengthen the balance sheet, lower interest costs, and create new revenue streams, albeit amid ongoing regulatory, competitive, and market-access risks outlined by the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLL) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, see the COLL Stock Forecast page.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Closes New $980 Million Credit Facility

On December 30, 2025, Collegium Pharmaceutical announced the closing of its inaugural $980 million syndicated credit facility, a five-year financing maturing in 2030 that includes a $580 million initial term loan, a $300 million delayed draw term loan and a $100 million revolving credit facility. The company used the initial term loan to fully repay approximately $581 million of principal outstanding under its prior $646 million term loan from funds managed by Pharmakon Advisors and expects the new SOFR-based facility, priced at a spread tied to its first lien net leverage ratio, to significantly lower its interest costs and generate meaningful annualized savings. With the delayed draw term loan and revolver undrawn at closing and earmarked for general corporate purposes and potential business development, the transaction strengthens Collegium’s capital structure, enhances financial flexibility and supports its strategy to drive long-term value through portfolio expansion and diversification.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLL) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, see the COLL Stock Forecast page.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Collegium Pharmaceutical reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with record net revenue of $209.4 million, a 31% increase year-over-year. The company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting net revenue between $775 to $785 million and adjusted EBITDA between $460 to $470 million. The growth was driven by a 20% increase in Jornay PM prescriptions and a robust performance in its pain portfolio. The company continues to focus on strategic business development and disciplined capital deployment to support patient care and drive shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (COLL) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collegium Pharmaceutical stock, see the COLL Stock Forecast page.