Vita Coco Company (COCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 779.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 4.54%
• EPS Growth: 19.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 319
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.94
• Shares Outstanding: 56,986,195
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 769,076
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 779,628
• PEG Ratio: 1.63
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.92
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 73.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $38.00
• Price Target Upside: 27.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

Vita Coco Company's stock score reflects a strong financial foundation with solid growth prospects. The main strengths are its consistent revenue and profit increases, low leverage, and improved cash flow. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics point to potential overpricing. The earnings call provided positive guidance but also highlighted challenges such as high freight costs and distribution issues. These mixed signals result in a balanced score, indicating moderate optimism for the stock's future performance.

Positive Factors

Inventory Management

Analyst believes inventory issues have been resolved, which is evident in the latest Nielsen data.

Product Demand

Brand demand remains solid as evidenced by recent Vita Coco consumption growth of 20%, reflecting underlying category growth and improved product supply and in-stocks.

Sales Growth

Vita Coco Coconut Water sales showed robust growth of +30%.

Negative Factors

Freight Costs

Ocean freight rates were up +138% year-over-year and there is low visibility for medium-term rates, which doesn't bode well for 2025 gross margins.

Guidance Expectations

Management’s FY25 topline guidance implies healthy growth but was softer than incoming expectations and below the company’s long-term mid-teen percentage growth algorithm.

Shelf Space Reduction

Shelf resets at Walmart resulted in significant reduction in SKUs and shelf space, translating into mid-teen percentage year-over-year declines in weekly store sales at Walmart.

Vita Coco Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vita Coco Company (COCO) is a leading beverage company specializing in the production and distribution of coconut water and other natural beverages. Founded in 2004, the company has established itself as a pioneer in the coconut water industry, offering a range of products that cater to health-conscious consumers seeking natural hydration options. Vita Coco's core products include its flagship coconut water, along with flavored variations and other plant-based beverages, available in various sizes and packaging formats to meet diverse consumer needs.

How the Company Makes Money

Vita Coco Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its coconut water and related beverage products. The company distributes its products through a variety of channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice channels. Key revenue streams include wholesale sales to retailers and distributors, direct-to-consumer sales via their online store, and strategic partnerships with major retail chains that help expand product reach. The company's earnings are bolstered by strong brand recognition, effective marketing strategies, and a growing consumer preference for healthier beverage alternatives. Additionally, Vita Coco continually explores new markets and product innovations to drive further revenue growth.

Vita Coco Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vita Coco Company exhibits strong financial health, characterized by consistent revenue and profit growth, a solid balance sheet with low leverage, and improving cash flow performance. The company's stability and efficient operations position it well within the non-alcoholic beverage industry. While past cash flow fluctuations posed challenges, recent improvements highlight a positive outlook.

Income Statement

The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $283.9M in 2019 to $516M in 2024. The gross profit margin in 2024 was approximately 38.53%, showing consistent profitability. The net profit margin also improved, reaching 10.84% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins were stable and healthy at 14.31%. This indicates efficient operations and cost management. The consistent upward trajectory in revenue and profits reflects a strong performance in the non-alcoholic beverage sector.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 in 2024, demonstrating financial prudence and low leverage risk. The equity ratio stands at 71.42%, indicating a strong equity base compared to total assets. Return on equity in 2024 was 21.62%, showcasing effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The company has a robust cash position, enhancing financial stability and flexibility.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow grew significantly from negative figures in 2022 to positive $42.9M in 2024, indicating improved cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was robust at 0.76 in 2024, suggesting healthy cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio also signifies effective cash management. Despite past fluctuations, the current trajectory shows strong cash flow performance, supporting potential growth opportunities.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
516.01M	493.61M	427.79M	379.51M	310.64M
	Gross Profit
198.78M	180.73M	103.36M	113.15M	104.86M
	EBIT
73.82M	56.49M	3.06M	24.59M	30.86M
	EBITDA
71.53M	58.61M	14.06M	26.66M	46.52M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
55.95M	46.63M	7.81M	19.02M	32.66M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
164.67M	132.54M	19.63M	28.69M	72.18M
	Total Assets
362.38M	285.68M	197.76M	197.48M	183.86M
	Total Debt
435.00K	1.22M	48.00K	76.00K	25.06M
	Net Debt
-164.23M	-131.32M	-19.58M	-28.61M	-47.13M
	Total Liabilities
103.56M	83.25M	56.66M	74.31M	81.56M
	Stockholders Equity
258.82M	202.44M	141.09M	123.17M	102.22M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
42.90M	106.56M	-11.92M	-16.72M	32.93M
	Operating Cash Flow
42.90M	107.16M	-10.94M	-16.17M	33.32M
	Investing Cash Flow
-974.00K	-594.00K	-982.00K	-557.00K	-375.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
-8.30M	6.29M	3.03M	-26.80M	2.05M

Vita Coco Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.80, below the 50-day MA of 35.93, and below the 200-day MA of 31.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COCO.

Vita Coco Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CELH	77 Outperform	$7.91B	80.52	12.54%	―	2.85%	-43.53%
MNST	76 Outperform	$56.31B	38.99	21.27%	―	4.94%	-4.13%
PEP	74 Outperform	$204.72B	21.48	52.42%	3.57%	0.42%	5.77%
KO	73 Outperform	$302.84B	28.60	41.86%	2.76%	1.96%	-0.45%
FIZZ	69 Neutral	$3.92B	21.12	40.81%	―	0.34%	9.48%
COCO	64 Neutral	$1.70B	31.57	24.26%	―	4.54%	19.37%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.66B	14.30	-10.05%	3.14%	1.30%	2.76%

Vita Coco Company Corporate Events

Vita Coco Refutes Short Seller Claims, Reaffirms Outlook

On March 26, 2025, The Vita Coco Company issued a press release addressing a short seller report by NINGI Research, which held a short position in the company’s stock. The company refuted the report’s claims, citing inaccuracies and reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 outlook and long-term growth strategy. Despite past inventory constraints affecting private label service levels, the company remains confident in its governance and financial practices, with no material changes since its last earnings call.