National Beverage (FIZZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.49B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 247.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.22
• Revenue Growth: 0.97%
• EPS Growth: 0.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,559
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 93,632,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 251,138
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 247,890
• PEG Ratio: 3.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.17
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.20B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(12.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/14/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—healthy margins, low leverage, and solid cash conversion—offset by a significant recent revenue decline and weaker technical trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable at ~16.5x earnings but lacks dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strong margins

Sustained gross (~37%) and net (~16%) margins indicate durable product-level profitability and pricing power from brand mix. Higher margins provide a buffer against input cost inflation and support reinvestment or shareholder returns even if volume growth moderates.

Low leverage and high ROE

Very low leverage and strong ROE mean the company has financial flexibility to fund operations, weather downturns, or pursue strategic initiatives. Conservative capitalization reduces refinancing risk and amplifies returns to shareholders when profitability remains high.

Solid cash conversion

Consistent operating cash conversion and high FCF-to-earnings provide reliable internal funding for brand investment, working capital and buybacks. Strong cash generation supports capital allocation autonomy without heavy external financing.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

A ~24% TTM revenue decline signals meaningful demand or volume pressure that can persist across quarters. Sustained top-line weakness erodes scale benefits, stresses fixed-cost absorption, and raises risk that margins and long-term growth metrics will weaken absent successful strategy shifts.

Volatile free cash flow growth

Although absolute cash generation is healthy, negative and volatile FCF growth reduces visibility into future investment capacity and shareholder returns. Swinging cashflows complicate budgeting for marketing, innovation and can force tradeoffs in capital allocation during weaker periods.

Equity volatility

Material swings in equity create uncertainty about the company’s capital base and make trend analysis less reliable. Such volatility may reflect irregular capital actions or accounting variability, complicating forecasting and potentially masking underlying operational trends.

National Beverage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, markets, and sells a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers beverages to the active and health-conscious consumers, including sparkling waters, energy drinks, and juices under the LaCroix, LaCroix Cúrate, LaCroix NiCola, Clear Fruit, Rip It, Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals, and Mr. Pure brands. It also offers carbonated soft drinks under the Shasta and Faygo brands. The company serves retailers, as well as various smaller up-and-down-the-street accounts through the take-home, convenience, and food-service distribution channels. National Beverage Corp. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

National Beverage generates revenue through the sale of its wide array of beverage products, primarily targeting retail channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and mass merchandisers. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the volume of products sold, with key revenue streams coming from its established brands like LaCroix, which has gained significant popularity among consumers seeking healthier alternatives to traditional soft drinks. Additionally, National Beverage benefits from partnerships with distributors and retailers, allowing for enhanced market penetration and product visibility. The company's ability to innovate and expand its product offerings further contributes to its earnings, as it adapts to changing consumer preferences and market trends.

National Beverage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent profitability (TTM gross margin ~37%, net margin ~16%) with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12) and strong ROE (~39%). Cash conversion is solid (operating cash flow ~1.8x net income; FCF ~83% of net income), but the sharp TTM revenue decline (~-24% YoY) and negative/volatile FCF growth reduce the score.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and consistent, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin around 37% and net margin around 16%, supported by healthy operating profitability. Over the last several annual periods, earnings and margins generally improved versus earlier years, but the key concern is growth: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined sharply (about -24% year over year), signaling demand/volume pressure or tougher comparisons despite still-solid profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is low, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity near 0.12, which provides flexibility and lowers financial risk. Returns on equity are very strong (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) roughly 39%), indicating efficient profitability versus the equity base. A watch item is equity volatility across periods (equity fluctuates meaningfully year-to-year), but overall the balance sheet profile remains conservatively financed.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow exceeds net income (about 1.8x), suggesting strong cash conversion. Free cash flow remains healthy and tracks earnings reasonably well (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is ~83% of net income). The main weakness is volatility—TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth is negative and prior years show swings, which reduces visibility even though absolute cash generation is strong.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.20B	1.20B	1.19B	1.17B	1.14B	1.07B
Gross Profit	446.81M	443.94M	428.45M	396.79M	417.81M	421.62M
EBITDA	258.16M	256.26M	238.67M	219.97M	239.40M	258.98M
Net Income	186.53M	186.82M	176.73M	142.16M	158.51M	174.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	748.97M	672.86M	770.15M	574.34M	467.80M	557.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	269.31M	193.84M	327.05M	158.07M	48.05M	193.59M
Total Debt	66.19M	72.12M	54.77M	41.53M	61.25M	43.64M
Total Liabilities	197.72M	228.86M	210.64M	201.85M	228.37M	201.24M
Stockholders Equity	551.26M	444.00M	559.51M	372.49M	239.44M	356.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	156.84M	170.41M	167.61M	139.69M	104.12M	168.46M
Operating Cash Flow	191.41M	206.70M	197.91M	161.66M	133.13M	193.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-34.57M	-36.27M	-30.25M	-21.95M	-29.00M	-25.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-364.00K	-303.63M	1.31M	-29.69M	-249.67M	-279.38M

National Beverage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIZZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.43, above the 50-day MA of 34.36, and below the 200-day MA of 38.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIZZ.

National Beverage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KOF	72 Outperform	$5.57B	15.03	16.64%	3.98%	-2.81%	-2.66%
COCO	72 Outperform	$3.09B	42.30	24.16%	―	23.12%	16.20%
FIZZ	70 Outperform	$3.49B	17.30	40.93%	―	0.97%	0.36%
AKO.A	69 Neutral	$3.95B	9.78	25.18%	4.78%	18.92%	34.03%
COKE	68 Neutral	$13.63B	19.79	168.34%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ZVIA	46 Neutral	$107.40M	-15.19	-17.19%	―	6.17%	41.09%