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ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB)
NASDAQ:CNOB
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ConnectOne Bancorp
(NASDAQ:CNOB)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(16.45% Upside)
CNOB’s score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue and cash flow growth despite margin/ROE pressure) and a constructive earnings outlook with improving NIM, capital building, and efficiency initiatives. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages. Valuation is the main restraint given the P/E of 22.67 versus a moderate 2.59% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and free cash flow growth
Sustained double-digit TTM revenue growth with very strong free cash flow conversion supports reinvestment, debt reduction, and capital returns. Durable cash generation strengthens funding flexibility, funds organic growth and M&A, and underpins resilience through economic cycles.
Improved deposit mix and rising core funding
Shift toward more low-cost, noninterest-bearing deposits and reduced reliance on brokered funding materially improves funding stability and lowers long-term deposit cost. This structural funding improvement supports NIM expansion and reduces sensitivity to wholesale funding volatility.
Merger integration and tech-driven efficiency gains
Successful large acquisition and rapid systems conversion create scalable infrastructure and realized synergies. Technology and AI vendor enhancements plus planned branch rationalization should sustainably lower operating costs per asset, improving long-run efficiency and ROE potential.
Negative Factors
Declining margins and lower ROE
Eroding gross and net margins and a weakening ROE signal pressure on core profitability. Persistent margin compression reduces retained earnings growth, limits capital accumulation, and constrains long-term ability to fund dividends, buybacks or organic expansion without higher risk.
More modest loan growth guidance
Guidance for only mid-single-digit loan growth reflects refinancing and payoff headwinds, limiting net interest income scaling. Slower loan expansion caps long-term NII upside, reduces leverage of fixed-cost base, and makes profitability improvement more dependent on margin and fee recovery.
Planned operating expense increase
A guided ~4% OpEx increase ahead of efficiency benefits creates near-term pressure on productivity metrics. If cost reductions from consolidation and tech take longer than expected, sustained higher expenses could offset NIM gains and slow improvement in efficiency ratio and long-term profitability.
ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.34B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)234.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth15.55%
EPS Growth-28.10%
CountryUS
Employees489
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding50,273,090
10 Day Avg. Volume260,366
30 Day Avg. Volume234,665
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.82
Price to Book (P/B)0.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio15.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside12.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$489.07M
ConnectOne Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ConnectOne Bank that provides commercial banking products and services for small and mid-sized businesses, local professionals, and individuals in the Northern New Jersey and New York Metropolitan area, and South Florida market. The company offers personal and business checking, retirement, money market, and time and savings accounts. It also provides consumer and commercial business loans on a secured and unsecured basis; revolving lines of credit; commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgages on primary and secondary residences; home equity loans; bridge loans; other personal purpose loans; and commercial construction and real estate loans. In addition, the company offers check cards, ATM cards, credit cards, wire transfers, access to automated teller services, Internet banking, treasury direct, automated clearing house origination, mobile banking by phone, safe deposit boxes, and remote deposit capture services. It operates through a network of eight banking offices in Bergen County, five banking offices in Union County, one banking office in Morris County, one office in Essex County, one office in Hudson County, one office in Monmouth County, one banking office in Manhattan in New York City, one office in Nassau County on Long Island, one in Astoria, and five branches in the Hudson Valley, as well as one financial center in West Palm Beach in Palm Beach County. The company was formerly known as Center Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. in July 2014. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyConnectOne Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from fees and services. Key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and residential loans, which form a substantial portion of their income. Additionally, the bank earns fees from various banking services, including account maintenance fees, ATM fees, and service charges. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance their service offerings and customer base, contributing to their earnings. The bank also engages in mortgage banking activities, which provide another source of revenue through origination fees and secondary market sales. Overall, ConnectOne Bancorp's diversified revenue model, combining interest and non-interest income, positions it well within the competitive banking industry.
ConnectOne Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material achievements: a successful large acquisition and systems conversion, expansion to $14B in assets, improved deposit quality, meaningful margin expansion, strong quarter-over-quarter operating performance (PPNR +~10%, operating earnings +18.6%), and strengthening capital metrics. Management provided constructive NIM and capital guidance and laid out clear efficiency and rationalization plans. Challenges cited—moderated loan growth (3%–5% guidance), deposit competition, a modest increase in operating expenses, and some provision/asset volatility—are notable but appear manageable relative to the positive operational and capital progress. Overall, highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook for 2026 while acknowledging prudent conservatism around risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Asset and Market-Cap Milestone
Reached >$10 billion threshold and finished the year with $14.0 billion in assets and a market capitalization in excess of $1.4 billion.
Deposit and Loan Growth
Client deposits increased approximately 5% (annualized) during 2025; loan portfolio also grew roughly 5% (annualized) driven by strong originations (offset by elevated payoffs).
Improved Deposit Quality
Noninterest-bearing demand balances rose from 17% to >21% of total deposits; brokered deposits declined from 12% to 6% of total assets (a 6 percentage-point reduction).
Margin Expansion and Clear Guidance
Net interest margin widened materially during the quarter and year. Guidance: +5 bps in Q1 (to low 330s bps), ~5 bps improvement per 25 bps Fed cut, and expectation of year-end NIM in the ~335–340 bps range (base case including one rate cut).
Strong Quarterly Operating Performance
Operating PPNR rose nearly 10% sequentially (fifth consecutive increase); operating earnings increased 18.6% sequentially vs. Q3; quarterly operating ROA = 1.24% and operating ROTCE = 14.3%.
Capital and Book Value Strength
Tangible common equity ratio improved to 8.62% at year-end; tangible book value per share was $23.52 with guidance to return to premerger levels within one year of the June merger completion; management flagged opportunities for dividend increases, opportunistic buybacks and M&A as capital builds.
Loan Pipeline and Yield Profile
Loan pipeline of ~$600 million with a weighted average rate of ~6.2%; management expects loan-sale gains of >$4 million in 2026 and forecasts loan portfolio growth of 3%–5% in 2026.
Efficiency, Technology and Rationalization
Completed largest transaction and systems conversion quickly, identified five branch consolidations (closure timing end of Q1) and plans for further staffing optimization; management highlights technology and AI-enabled vendor improvements contributing to operational leverage and efficiency.
Negative Updates
More Modest Loan Growth Outlook
Management reduced 2026 loan growth expectation to ~3%–5% due to elevated payoffs and refinancing activity; significant portion of portfolio maturing/repricing in 2026–2027 could drive higher-than-typical payoffs.
Deposit Competition and Rate Pressure
Competition for deposits has heated up; management acknowledged pressure on deposit costs and incorporated this into margin guidance (but warned competition could limit upside).
OpEx Increase Guidance
Operating expense guidance calls for an approximate 4% increase by Q4 2026 (from current quarter) as branch consolidation, modest hiring in revenue-producing roles and other changes occur; expense step-up expected in Q1 then flattening.
Provision Volatility and Slight NPA Bump
Provision for credit losses was relatively low this quarter partly due to one-time items (CECL model tweaks, reserve calibrations and PCD loan workouts); nonperforming asset ratio rose slightly to 0.33% from 0.28% due to one multifamily relationship (management indicated a January action reduced nonaccruals afterward).
Noninterest Income Miss vs. Prior Guidance
Management acknowledged falling short of prior noninterest income guidance, though they expect loan sale gains (>$4 million) in 2026 to help recover this line.
Potential Headwinds and Uncertainties
Management flagged ongoing risks including competitive pressures, political developments, broader market sentiment and a possible preferred redemption that could compress NIM by ~5 bps (though potentially improve EPS).
Company Guidance
Management guided to modest but measurable improvement across earnings, margin, balance‑sheet and capital metrics for 2026: assets ended 2025 at $14.0B with market cap >$1.4B, client deposits and loans each grew ~5% annualized in 2025 (loan growth now guided to a more modest 3–5% in 2026), noninterest‑bearing demand rose from 17% to >21% and brokerage fell from 12% to 6% of assets, operating PPNR increased nearly 10% sequentially and Q4 operating earnings were up 18.6% QoQ, operating ROA was 1.24% and ROTCE 14.3%, tangible common equity was 8.62% (targeting ~9%), tangible book value per share $23.52 with a return to pre‑merger levels expected within a year, NPA ratio 0.33% (0.28% prior quarter), effective tax rate 26% this quarter (guidance to ~28% going forward), provision run‑rate roughly $5–$6M/quarter, loan‑sale gains >$4M expected in 2026, a $600M loan pipeline at a 6.2% weighted rate, NIM guidance to rise ~5 bps in Q1 to the low 330s with +5 bps per 25 bps Fed cut and +5 bps/quarter from loan repricings later in the year (partially offset by a potential −5 bps from a preferred redemption), and OpEx set to increase about 4% by Q4 2026 with five branch closures (end of Q1), modest staffing changes and continued efficiency initiatives while retaining flexibility for dividend increases, opportunistic buybacks and M&A.ConnectOne Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Solid fundamentals supported by strong TTM revenue growth (13.18%) and very strong free cash flow growth (140.03%) with good earnings-to-cash conversion, offset by declining gross and net margins and a lower return on equity.Income Statement
ConnectOne Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 13.18% is strong, indicating positive momentum. However, the gross profit margin has decreased significantly from previous years, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin has also declined, reflecting reduced profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, although both have decreased compared to prior periods.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of ConnectOne Bancorp reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69 in the TTM, which is manageable and shows improvement from previous years. The return on equity has decreased, indicating lower profitability relative to equity. However, the equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital base and financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a robust free cash flow growth rate of 140.03% in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, reflecting efficient cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting that the company effectively converts its earnings into cash.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 619.35M | 534.62M | 504.07M | 386.99M | 316.75M | 322.60M |
| Gross Profit | 295.96M | 250.26M | 260.91M | 297.61M | 283.39M | 211.39M |
| EBITDA | 96.20M | 104.12M | 122.90M | 176.77M | 180.79M | 97.19M |
| Net Income | 61.30M | 73.79M | 87.00M | 125.21M | 130.35M | 71.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.02B | 9.88B | 9.86B | 9.64B | 8.13B | 7.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.18B | 360.70M | 859.88M | 903.20M | 800.04M | 791.71M |
| Total Debt | 1.07B | 783.51M | 1.03B | 1.02B | 633.56M | 646.63M |
| Total Liabilities | 12.49B | 8.64B | 8.64B | 8.47B | 7.01B | 6.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.54B | 1.24B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 1.12B | 915.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 84.89M | 56.91M | 85.46M | 173.48M | 199.49M | 78.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.94M | 60.70M | 92.89M | 176.78M | 202.27M | 81.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -202.70M | 55.15M | -248.04M | -1.54B | -689.86M | -323.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 407.25M | -2.08M | 129.55M | 1.37B | 449.37M | 344.51M |
ConnectOne Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
26.62
Price Trends
26.56
Positive
25.56
Positive
24.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Positive
45.50
Neutral
36.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNOB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.05, above the 50-day MA of 26.56, and above the 200-day MA of 24.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNOB.
ConnectOne Bancorp Risk Analysis
ConnectOne Bancorp disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ConnectOne Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ConnectOne Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $1.46B | 11.05 | 10.78% | 1.34% | 1.31% | 2.02% | |
80 Outperform | $1.26B | 11.18 | 13.05% | 3.70% | -13.17% | -16.37% | |
79 Outperform | $1.52B | 12.05 | 11.80% | 0.28% | -2.42% | 3.83% | |
75 Outperform | $1.26B | 10.92 | 12.35% | 2.57% | 5.21% | 24.51% | |
72 Outperform | $1.34B | 16.33 | 5.71% | 2.68% | 15.55% | -28.10% | |
68 Neutral | $1.50B | 68.09 | 1.11% | ― | 2.04% | -64.17% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp
26.62
2.12
8.65%
QCRH
QCR Holdings
90.26
14.37
18.93%
RBCAA
Republic Bancorp
72.61
10.13
16.21%
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
50.58
1.78
3.66%
TFIN
Triumph Financial
63.09
-12.87
-16.94%
BY
Byline Bancorp
31.93
3.51
12.35%
ConnectOne Bancorp Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
ConnectOne Bancorp Sets Date to Report Q4 2025 Results
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. announced plans to release its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, before the market opens on Thursday, January 29, 2026. The company said Chairman and CEO Frank Sorrentino III and Senior EVP and CFO William S. Burns will host a conference call and audio webcast at 10:00 a.m. ET the same day to review financial performance and operating results, with live public access and replay options provided via the bank’s website, underscoring its continued emphasis on transparency and engagement with investors and other stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNOB) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ConnectOne Bancorp stock, see the CNOB Stock Forecast page.
Other
ConnectOne Bancorp Hosts November 2025 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025
ConnectOne Bancorp presented an investor presentation in November 2025. The presentation included various images and exhibits, but no specific details about the company’s operations, industry positioning, or implications for stakeholders were provided in the text.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNOB) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ConnectOne Bancorp stock, see the CNOB Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.