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ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB)
NASDAQ:CNOB
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ConnectOne Bancorp
(NASDAQ:CNOB)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(9.31% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by steady-but-pressured financial performance (weaker revenue/margins and lower ROE, offset by improved 2025 cash generation) and a constructive earnings-call outlook for 2026 (NIM/capital improvement and efficiency initiatives). Technical signals are mixed-to-soft and valuation is reasonable but not a clear bargain, keeping the overall score in the mid range.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
ConnectOne's operating and free cash flow recovered to roughly $106M in 2025, improving by ~25% YoY. Stronger cash conversion provides durable financial flexibility to fund dividends, opportunistic buybacks, M&A or reserve builds and cushions the franchise versus cyclical stress, though consistency must be monitored.
Higher quality deposit mix
The shift toward >21% noninterest-bearing deposits and a fall in brokered funding to ~6% reduces funding cost sensitivity and increases deposit stickiness. That structural improvement supports more stable NIM, lowers reliance on volatile wholesale funding, and strengthens medium-term balance-sheet resilience.
Scale and successful integration
Achieving $14B in assets and completing a major acquisition plus systems conversion drives scale benefits and realized synergies. Successful integration lowers execution risk, creates operating leverage from technology and consolidation, and enhances capacity for diversification, efficiency and selective M&A.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin compression
Revenue momentum weakened into 2025 and margins compressed materially versus prior years. Persistent top-line softness and narrower margins reduce sustainable profitability and ROE recovery, forcing greater reliance on cost cuts, repricing or higher loan growth to restore durable earnings power over the medium term.
Rising leverage and weaker returns
An uptick in leverage alongside ROE falling to roughly 5% indicates declining capital efficiency. Even with adequate capitalization, higher leverage and weak returns restrict strategic flexibility, limit the pace of capital returns or acquisitions, and raise the bar for sustainable long-term shareholder value creation.
Credit/provision volatility and slower loan growth
Reduced loan-growth guidance and noted provision volatility with a small NPA increase signal elevated earnings variability. Slower organic loan expansion limits NII upside from repricing, while credit sensitivity and maturing/repricing exposures raise payoff risk and complicate durable margin improvement.
ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.33B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)274.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth15.55%
EPS Growth-28.10%
CountryUS
Employees489
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding50,273,380
10 Day Avg. Volume254,074
30 Day Avg. Volume274,478
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.00
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)2.18
P/FCF Ratio13.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.00Price Target Upside20.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$487.21M
ConnectOne Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ConnectOne Bank that provides commercial banking products and services for small and mid-sized businesses, local professionals, and individuals in the Northern New Jersey and New York Metropolitan area, and South Florida market. The company offers personal and business checking, retirement, money market, and time and savings accounts. It also provides consumer and commercial business loans on a secured and unsecured basis; revolving lines of credit; commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgages on primary and secondary residences; home equity loans; bridge loans; other personal purpose loans; and commercial construction and real estate loans. In addition, the company offers check cards, ATM cards, credit cards, wire transfers, access to automated teller services, Internet banking, treasury direct, automated clearing house origination, mobile banking by phone, safe deposit boxes, and remote deposit capture services. It operates through a network of eight banking offices in Bergen County, five banking offices in Union County, one banking office in Morris County, one office in Essex County, one office in Hudson County, one office in Monmouth County, one banking office in Manhattan in New York City, one office in Nassau County on Long Island, one in Astoria, and five branches in the Hudson Valley, as well as one financial center in West Palm Beach in Palm Beach County. The company was formerly known as Center Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. in July 2014. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyConnectOne Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from fees and services. Key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and residential loans, which form a substantial portion of their income. Additionally, the bank earns fees from various banking services, including account maintenance fees, ATM fees, and service charges. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance their service offerings and customer base, contributing to their earnings. The bank also engages in mortgage banking activities, which provide another source of revenue through origination fees and secondary market sales. Overall, ConnectOne Bancorp's diversified revenue model, combining interest and non-interest income, positions it well within the competitive banking industry.
ConnectOne Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material achievements: a successful large acquisition and systems conversion, expansion to $14B in assets, improved deposit quality, meaningful margin expansion, strong quarter-over-quarter operating performance (PPNR +~10%, operating earnings +18.6%), and strengthening capital metrics. Management provided constructive NIM and capital guidance and laid out clear efficiency and rationalization plans. Challenges cited—moderated loan growth (3%–5% guidance), deposit competition, a modest increase in operating expenses, and some provision/asset volatility—are notable but appear manageable relative to the positive operational and capital progress. Overall, highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook for 2026 while acknowledging prudent conservatism around risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Asset and Market-Cap Milestone
Reached >$10 billion threshold and finished the year with $14.0 billion in assets and a market capitalization in excess of $1.4 billion.
Deposit and Loan Growth
Client deposits increased approximately 5% (annualized) during 2025; loan portfolio also grew roughly 5% (annualized) driven by strong originations (offset by elevated payoffs).
Improved Deposit Quality
Noninterest-bearing demand balances rose from 17% to >21% of total deposits; brokered deposits declined from 12% to 6% of total assets (a 6 percentage-point reduction).
Margin Expansion and Clear Guidance
Net interest margin widened materially during the quarter and year. Guidance: +5 bps in Q1 (to low 330s bps), ~5 bps improvement per 25 bps Fed cut, and expectation of year-end NIM in the ~335–340 bps range (base case including one rate cut).
Strong Quarterly Operating Performance
Operating PPNR rose nearly 10% sequentially (fifth consecutive increase); operating earnings increased 18.6% sequentially vs. Q3; quarterly operating ROA = 1.24% and operating ROTCE = 14.3%.
Capital and Book Value Strength
Tangible common equity ratio improved to 8.62% at year-end; tangible book value per share was $23.52 with guidance to return to premerger levels within one year of the June merger completion; management flagged opportunities for dividend increases, opportunistic buybacks and M&A as capital builds.
Loan Pipeline and Yield Profile
Loan pipeline of ~$600 million with a weighted average rate of ~6.2%; management expects loan-sale gains of >$4 million in 2026 and forecasts loan portfolio growth of 3%–5% in 2026.
Efficiency, Technology and Rationalization
Completed largest transaction and systems conversion quickly, identified five branch consolidations (closure timing end of Q1) and plans for further staffing optimization; management highlights technology and AI-enabled vendor improvements contributing to operational leverage and efficiency.
Negative Updates
More Modest Loan Growth Outlook
Management reduced 2026 loan growth expectation to ~3%–5% due to elevated payoffs and refinancing activity; significant portion of portfolio maturing/repricing in 2026–2027 could drive higher-than-typical payoffs.
Deposit Competition and Rate Pressure
Competition for deposits has heated up; management acknowledged pressure on deposit costs and incorporated this into margin guidance (but warned competition could limit upside).
OpEx Increase Guidance
Operating expense guidance calls for an approximate 4% increase by Q4 2026 (from current quarter) as branch consolidation, modest hiring in revenue-producing roles and other changes occur; expense step-up expected in Q1 then flattening.
Provision Volatility and Slight NPA Bump
Provision for credit losses was relatively low this quarter partly due to one-time items (CECL model tweaks, reserve calibrations and PCD loan workouts); nonperforming asset ratio rose slightly to 0.33% from 0.28% due to one multifamily relationship (management indicated a January action reduced nonaccruals afterward).
Noninterest Income Miss vs. Prior Guidance
Management acknowledged falling short of prior noninterest income guidance, though they expect loan sale gains (>$4 million) in 2026 to help recover this line.
Potential Headwinds and Uncertainties
Management flagged ongoing risks including competitive pressures, political developments, broader market sentiment and a possible preferred redemption that could compress NIM by ~5 bps (though potentially improve EPS).
Company Guidance
Management guided to modest but measurable improvement across earnings, margin, balance‑sheet and capital metrics for 2026: assets ended 2025 at $14.0B with market cap >$1.4B, client deposits and loans each grew ~5% annualized in 2025 (loan growth now guided to a more modest 3–5% in 2026), noninterest‑bearing demand rose from 17% to >21% and brokerage fell from 12% to 6% of assets, operating PPNR increased nearly 10% sequentially and Q4 operating earnings were up 18.6% QoQ, operating ROA was 1.24% and ROTCE 14.3%, tangible common equity was 8.62% (targeting ~9%), tangible book value per share $23.52 with a return to pre‑merger levels expected within a year, NPA ratio 0.33% (0.28% prior quarter), effective tax rate 26% this quarter (guidance to ~28% going forward), provision run‑rate roughly $5–$6M/quarter, loan‑sale gains >$4M expected in 2026, a $600M loan pipeline at a 6.2% weighted rate, NIM guidance to rise ~5 bps in Q1 to the low 330s with +5 bps per 25 bps Fed cut and +5 bps/quarter from loan repricings later in the year (partially offset by a potential −5 bps from a preferred redemption), and OpEx set to increase about 4% by Q4 2026 with five branch closures (end of Q1), modest staffing changes and continued efficiency initiatives while retaining flexibility for dividend increases, opportunistic buybacks and M&A.ConnectOne Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial quality is steady but pressured: revenue turned slightly negative in 2025 and profitability/ROE have compressed materially versus 2021–2022, partially offset by a notable 2025 rebound in operating and free cash flow and adequate capitalization despite slightly higher leverage.Income Statement
Revenue grew strongly from 2020–2023, but momentum weakened in 2024 and turned negative in 2025 (annual revenue down ~2%). Profitability also compressed meaningfully: net margin fell from ~41% (2021) to ~13% (2025) and operating margin dropped from ~55% to ~19%, signaling tougher spread/pricing conditions and/or higher costs. Offsetting this, the company remains solidly profitable with positive operating earnings and relatively stable margins versus 2024.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows moderate leverage for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity rising to ~0.74 in 2025 from ~0.63 in 2024 (and below the 2022–2023 highs). Equity has expanded over time, supporting asset growth, but returns have trended down: return on equity slipped from ~10–12% (2021–2022) to ~5% (2025). Overall, capitalization looks adequate, but declining shareholder returns and slightly higher leverage are watch items.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved in 2025, with operating cash flow rising to ~$106M and free cash flow also ~$106M (up ~25% year over year). Free cash flow covered net income at about 1.0x in 2025 (and was close to net income in prior years), indicating earnings are translating into cash. A key risk is volatility: free cash flow declined in 2022–2024 before rebounding in 2025, so consistency is not yet strong.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 606.47M | 534.62M | 504.07M | 386.99M | 316.75M |
| Gross Profit | 267.86M | 250.26M | 260.91M | 297.61M | 283.39M |
| EBITDA | 112.74M | 104.12M | 122.90M | 176.77M | 180.79M |
| Net Income | 80.44M | 73.79M | 87.00M | 125.21M | 130.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.00B | 9.88B | 9.86B | 9.64B | 8.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.34B | 360.70M | 859.88M | 903.20M | 800.04M |
| Total Debt | 1.17B | 783.51M | 1.03B | 1.02B | 633.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 12.43B | 8.64B | 8.64B | 8.47B | 7.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.24B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 1.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 101.01M | 56.91M | 85.46M | 173.48M | 199.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 106.40M | 60.70M | 92.89M | 176.78M | 202.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -186.16M | 55.15M | -248.04M | -1.54B | -689.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.17M | -2.08M | 129.55M | 1.37B | 449.37M |
ConnectOne Bancorp Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.53
Price Trends
27.14
Negative
25.91
Positive
24.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
43.20
Neutral
45.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNOB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.48, below the 50-day MA of 27.14, and above the 200-day MA of 24.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CNOB.
ConnectOne Bancorp Risk Analysis
ConnectOne Bancorp disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ConnectOne Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ConnectOne Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.20B | 10.37 | 12.35% | 2.57% | 5.21% | 24.51% | |
71 Outperform | $1.26B | 11.19 | 13.05% | 3.70% | -13.17% | -16.37% | |
69 Neutral | $1.43B | 10.80 | 10.78% | 1.34% | 1.31% | 2.02% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $1.44B | 11.54 | 11.80% | 0.28% | -2.42% | 3.83% | |
64 Neutral | $1.33B | 16.23 | 5.70% | 2.68% | 15.55% | -28.10% | |
50 Neutral | $1.33B | 60.40 | 1.11% | ― | 2.04% | -64.17% |
* Financial Sector Average
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp
26.53
2.01
8.18%
QCRH
QCR Holdings
86.50
11.70
15.64%
RBCAA
Republic Bancorp
69.00
2.44
3.67%
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
50.65
0.84
1.68%
TFIN
Triumph Financial
55.86
-10.70
-16.08%
BY
Byline Bancorp
31.20
3.36
12.05%
ConnectOne Bancorp Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
ConnectOne Bancorp Files Limited-Disclosure February Investor Presentation
Negative
Feb 12, 2026
ConnectOne Bancorp has released an investor presentation dated February 2026, but the publicly filed document consists only of a series of image placeholders without accompanying textual or quantitative disclosure. As a result, no substantive information about the bank’s current strategy, financial performance, or operational outlook can be gleaned from this particular filing, leaving investors dependent on other sources for insight into the company’s positioning and prospects.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNOB) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ConnectOne Bancorp stock, see the CNOB Stock Forecast page.
Financial Disclosures
ConnectOne Bancorp Sets Date to Report Q4 2025 Results
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. announced plans to release its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, before the market opens on Thursday, January 29, 2026. The company said Chairman and CEO Frank Sorrentino III and Senior EVP and CFO William S. Burns will host a conference call and audio webcast at 10:00 a.m. ET the same day to review financial performance and operating results, with live public access and replay options provided via the bank’s website, underscoring its continued emphasis on transparency and engagement with investors and other stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (CNOB) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ConnectOne Bancorp stock, see the CNOB Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.