ConnectOne Bancorp Inc. (CNOB)
NASDAQ:CNOB
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ConnectOne Bancorp
(NASDAQ:CNOB)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(3.46% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by steady-but-pressured financial performance (weaker revenue/margins and lower ROE, offset by improved 2025 cash generation) and a constructive earnings-call outlook for 2026 (NIM/capital improvement and efficiency initiatives). Technical signals are mixed-to-soft and valuation is reasonable but not a clear bargain, keeping the overall score in the mid range.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
ConnectOne's operating and free cash flow recovered to roughly $106M in 2025, improving by ~25% YoY. Stronger cash conversion provides durable financial flexibility to fund dividends, opportunistic buybacks, M&A or reserve builds and cushions the franchise versus cyclical stress, though consistency must be monitored.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin compression
Revenue momentum weakened into 2025 and margins compressed materially versus prior years. Persistent top-line softness and narrower margins reduce sustainable profitability and ROE recovery, forcing greater reliance on cost cuts, repricing or higher loan growth to restore durable earnings power over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
ConnectOne's operating and free cash flow recovered to roughly $106M in 2025, improving by ~25% YoY. Stronger cash conversion provides durable financial flexibility to fund dividends, opportunistic buybacks, M&A or reserve builds and cushions the franchise versus cyclical stress, though consistency must be monitored.
Read all positive factors
ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.43B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)358.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth15.55%
EPS Growth-28.10%
CountryUS
Employees489
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding50,273,380
10 Day Avg. Volume338,731
30 Day Avg. Volume358,300
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.00
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)2.18
P/FCF Ratio13.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.33Price Target Upside11.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$482.37M
ConnectOne Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for ConnectOne Bank that provides commercial banking products and services for small and mid-sized businesses, local professionals, and individuals in the Northern New Jersey and New Yo...
How the Company Makes Money
ConnectOne Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from fees and services. Key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and residential loans, which form a...
ConnectOne Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material achievements: a successful large acquisition and systems conversion, expansion to $14B in assets, improved deposit quality, meaningful margin expansion, strong quarter-over-quarter operating performance (PPNR +~10%, operating earnings +18.6%), and strengthening capital metrics. Management provided constructive NIM and capital guidance and laid out clear efficiency and rationalization plans. Challenges cited—moderated loan growth (3%–5% guidance), deposit competition, a modest increase in operating expenses, and some provision/asset volatility—are notable but appear manageable relative to the positive operational and capital progress. Overall, highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook for 2026 while acknowledging prudent conservatism around risks.Positive Updates
Asset and Market-Cap Milestone
Reached >$10 billion threshold and finished the year with $14.0 billion in assets and a market capitalization in excess of $1.4 billion.
Negative Updates
More Modest Loan Growth Outlook
Management reduced 2026 loan growth expectation to ~3%–5% due to elevated payoffs and refinancing activity; significant portion of portfolio maturing/repricing in 2026–2027 could drive higher-than-typical payoffs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Asset and Market-Cap Milestone
Reached >$10 billion threshold and finished the year with $14.0 billion in assets and a market capitalization in excess of $1.4 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to modest but measurable improvement across earnings, margin, balance‑sheet and capital metrics for 2026: assets ended 2025 at $14.0B with market cap >$1.4B, client deposits and loans each grew ~5% annualized in 2025 (loan growth now guided to a more modest 3–5% in 2026), noninterest‑bearing demand rose from 17% to >21% and brokerage fell from 12% to 6% of assets, operating PPNR increased nearly 10% sequentially and Q4 operating earnings were up 18.6% QoQ, operating ROA was 1.24% and ROTCE 14.3%, tangible common equity was 8.62% (targeting ~9%), tangible book value per share $23.52 with a return to pre‑merger levels expected within a year, NPA ratio 0.33% (0.28% prior quarter), effective tax rate 26% this quarter (guidance to ~28% going forward), provision run‑rate roughly $5–$6M/quarter, loan‑sale gains >$4M expected in 2026, a $600M loan pipeline at a 6.2% weighted rate, NIM guidance to rise ~5 bps in Q1 to the low 330s with +5 bps per 25 bps Fed cut and +5 bps/quarter from loan repricings later in the year (partially offset by a potential −5 bps from a preferred redemption), and OpEx set to increase about 4% by Q4 2026 with five branch closures (end of Q1), modest staffing changes and continued efficiency initiatives while retaining flexibility for dividend increases, opportunistic buybacks and M&A.ConnectOne Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 606.47M | 534.62M | 504.07M | 386.99M | 316.75M |
| Gross Profit | 267.86M | 250.26M | 260.91M | 297.61M | 283.39M |
| EBITDA | 112.74M | 104.12M | 122.90M | 176.77M | 180.79M |
| Net Income | 80.44M | 73.79M | 87.00M | 125.21M | 130.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.00B | 9.88B | 9.86B | 9.64B | 8.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.34B | 360.70M | 859.88M | 903.20M | 800.04M |
| Total Debt | 1.17B | 783.51M | 1.03B | 1.02B | 633.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 12.43B | 8.64B | 8.64B | 8.47B | 7.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.24B | 1.22B | 1.18B | 1.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 101.01M | 56.91M | 85.46M | 173.48M | 199.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 106.40M | 60.70M | 92.89M | 176.78M | 202.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -186.16M | 55.15M | -248.04M | -1.54B | -689.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.17M | -2.08M | 129.55M | 1.37B | 449.37M |
ConnectOne Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
28.03
Price Trends
26.99
Positive
26.77
Positive
25.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.50
Negative
60.09
Neutral
82.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNOB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.19, above the 50-day MA of 26.99, and above the 200-day MA of 25.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNOB.
ConnectOne Bancorp Risk Analysis
ConnectOne Bancorp disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ConnectOne Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ConnectOne Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.29B | 10.23 | 12.53% | 3.70% | -13.17% | -16.37% | |
69 Neutral | $1.28B | 10.37 | 12.27% | 2.57% | 5.21% | 24.51% | |
69 Neutral | $1.51B | 10.05 | 10.77% | 1.34% | 1.31% | 2.02% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $1.52B | 10.97 | 11.91% | 0.28% | -2.42% | 3.83% | |
64 Neutral | $1.43B | 8.36 | 5.49% | 2.68% | 15.55% | -28.10% | |
50 Neutral | $1.48B | 58.33 | 2.77% | ― | 2.04% | -64.17% |
* Financial Sector Average
CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp
28.03
7.08
33.81%
QCRH
QCR Holdings
90.59
23.90
35.85%
RBCAA
Republic Bancorp
73.08
10.62
17.00%
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
53.71
9.45
21.35%
TFIN
Triumph Financial
63.58
14.96
30.77%
BY
Byline Bancorp
33.11
9.29
39.02%
ConnectOne Bancorp Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
ConnectOne Bancorp Files Limited-Disclosure February Investor Presentation
Negative
Feb 12, 2026
ConnectOne Bancorp has released an investor presentation dated February 2026, but the publicly filed document consists only of a series of image placeholders without accompanying textual or quantitative disclosure. As a result, no substantive info...
Financial Disclosures
ConnectOne Bancorp Sets Date to Report Q4 2025 Results
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. announced plans to release its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, before the market opens on Thursday, January 29, 2026. The company said Chairman and CEO Frank Sorrentin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.