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Conifer Holdings (CNFR)
NASDAQ:CNFR
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Conifer Holdings
(NASDAQ:CNFR)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(13.64% Upside)
The overall stock score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and negative cash flows. Technical analysis shows bullish momentum, but overbought signals could lead to a correction. Valuation suggests potential undervaluation, but the lack of a dividend yield is a drawback for some investors.
Conifer Holdings (CNFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.7
Beta (1Y)0.10
Revenue Growth-37.38%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees9
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding12,222,881
10 Day Avg. Volume5,051,268
30 Day Avg. Volume1,690,948
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-3.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.00Price Target Upside13.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering0
Conifer Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConifer Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in the sale of property and casualty insurance products. It offers insurance coverage in specialty commercial and personal product lines. The company underwrites various specialty insurance products, including property, general liability, liquor liability, automobile, and homeowners and dwelling policies. It serves the commercial insurance needs of owner-operated businesses in the markets, such as hospitality, which includes restaurants, bars, taverns, and bowling centers, as well as small grocery and convenience stores; artisan contractors comprising plumbers, painters, carpenters, electricians, and other independent contractors; and security service providers, including companies that provide security guard services, security alarm products and services, and private investigative services. The company also offers specialty homeowners insurance products, such as low- value dwelling insurance tailored for owners of lower valued homes in Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, and Texas; and wholesale agency services comprising commercial and personal lines insurance products for its insurance company subsidiaries, as well as third party insurers. Conifer Holdings, Inc. markets and sells its insurance products through a network of approximately 4,600 independent agents in 50 states in the United States. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Michigan.
How the Company Makes MoneyConifer Holdings generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies, which involves collecting premiums from policyholders in exchange for coverage against specified risks. The company earns money by maintaining a favorable loss ratio, which is achieved by minimizing claims payouts in relation to the premiums collected. Key revenue streams include premiums from personal lines, commercial lines, and specialty insurance products. Additionally, the company may receive investment income from its reserves, which are allocated to various investment vehicles. Strategic partnerships with agents and brokers also play a vital role in expanding its market reach and generating additional business opportunities, contributing to overall earnings.
Conifer Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted a strategic shift towards a more sustainable revenue model and improved expense management, but also detailed significant declines in gross written premiums, continued net losses, and impacts from adverse weather conditions. The sentiment reflects cautious optimism with ongoing challenges.Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Shift to Commission-Based Revenue Model
Conifer has strategically shifted towards a commission-based revenue model through their managing general agency, Conifer Insurance Services, focusing on more stable and predictable revenue streams rather than the traditional risk-bearing carrier revenue model.
Improved Expense Ratio
The expense ratio improved to 32% in the second quarter, down 580 basis points from the same period last year, and well below the near-term target of 35%.
Increase in Agency Commission Revenue
Agency commission in the second quarter rose significantly to nearly $9 million compared to $211,000 in the second quarter of 2023, showcasing progress in driving commission-based revenue.
Net Investment Income Growth
Net investment income was $1.5 million during the second quarter, up 11% from $1.4 million in the prior year period.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Gross Written Premium
Gross written premium decreased 58% to $19 million, reflecting the strategic decision to reduce premium leverage on operating subsidiaries.
High Combined Ratio
The overall combined ratio was 124% in the second quarter, impacted by the Oklahoma storms, indicating higher costs relative to premiums earned.
Net Loss for the Quarter
The company reported a net loss allocable to common shareholders of $4 million or $0.32 per share, and an adjusted operating loss of $3.6 million or $0.30 per share for the second quarter of 2024.
Decrease in Fair Value of Investments
There was a $196,000 decrease in the fair value of equity investments in the second quarter, leading to a net realized investment loss of $118,000.
Company Guidance
During Conifer Holdings' Q2 2024 earnings call, the company outlined significant strategic changes aimed at enhancing profitability and long-term growth. The transition to a commission-based revenue model through their wholly-owned managing general agency, Conifer Insurance Services, resulted in a 58% decrease in overall gross written premium, which was split between 36% commercial lines and 64% personal lines. This shift is designed to stabilize revenue streams and reduce risk by leveraging third-party insurers with A.M. Best ratings of A- or better. The commercial lines combined ratio stood at 105%, with an accident year combined ratio of 81%, while the overall combined ratio was impacted by spring storms, particularly in Oklahoma, resulting in a 124% combined ratio for the quarter. Despite a net loss of $4 million, the company improved its expense ratio to 32%, down 580 basis points from the previous year, and increased net investment income by 11% to $1.5 million. The management emphasized their commitment to operational profitability, supported by ongoing expense reductions and potential asset sales for liquidity needs.Conifer Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Conifer Holdings faces several financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability issues affecting the income statement. The balance sheet reflects a stable leverage situation but limited equity strength. Cash flows are under pressure from negative operating cash flows, indicating potential liquidity risks. Strategic improvements are necessary to enhance financial health.Income Statement
The company's income statement reveals significant challenges in profitability, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicating operational inefficiencies. Despite this, the net profit margin is positive due to non-operating factors. Revenue has shown a declining trend over recent periods, which is concerning for future growth prospects.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet highlights a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates manageable leverage levels. However, the equity ratio is low, suggesting a heavy reliance on liabilities. The ROE is positive but not robust, reflecting limited returns to equity holders amid fluctuating equity levels.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flows, which raises concerns about liquidity and operational efficiency. The free cash flow remains negative, and ratios to net income suggest operational cash generation issues. However, there is some stability in cash flow from investing activities.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 61.78M | 66.30M | 89.97M | 101.48M | 104.31M | 103.49M |
| Gross Profit | -7.25M | -20.34M | -8.24M | -2.14M | 17.65M | 103.49M |
| EBITDA | -24.74M | -29.53M | -23.88M | -17.10M | 1.56M | 3.12M |
| Net Income | 30.48M | 24.35M | -25.90M | -10.68M | -1.09M | 595.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 283.26M | 281.66M | 311.80M | 312.35M | 290.40M | 261.60M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.95M | 154.47M | 153.61M | 164.16M | 182.71M | 173.51M |
| Total Debt | 12.06M | 11.93M | 25.06M | 34.85M | 33.56M | 41.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 255.05M | 260.13M | 308.92M | 190.91M | 33.56M | 217.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.21M | 21.52M | 2.89M | 18.95M | 40.50M | 44.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.74M | -32.68M | -13.39M | -40.47M | 4.28M | 2.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -48.74M | -32.68M | -13.39M | -40.47M | 5.36M | 2.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 73.75M | 70.29M | -272.00K | 56.50M | 1.38M | -7.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.75M | -21.09M | -3.25M | 2.09M | -5.01M | 5.08M |
Conifer Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
1.76
Price Trends
0.90
Positive
0.84
Positive
0.88
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
72.10
Negative
75.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.01, above the 50-day MA of 0.90, and above the 200-day MA of 0.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CNFR.
Conifer Holdings Risk Analysis
Conifer Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Conifer Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Conifer Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | 771.41M | 7.34 | 21.16% | ― | 9.35% | 77.04% | |
70 Outperform | 542.76M | 6.75 | 32.13% | ― | 23.68% | 16.14% | |
66 Neutral | 424.96M | 15.01 | 6.27% | 4.69% | -3.71% | -21.68% | |
66 Neutral | 191.46M | 6.73 | 27.52% | 0.36% | 35.68% | 342.66% | |
56 Neutral | 283.25M | 194.24 | -2.48% | ― | -15.27% | -65.08% | |
52 Neutral | $24.81M | 0.72 | -218.24% | ― | -37.38% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CNFR
Conifer Holdings
1.76
0.74
72.55%
GBLI
Global Indemnity
29.88
-1.54
-4.90%
KINS
Kingstone Companies
13.69
4.14
43.35%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
11.14
0.20
1.83%
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
25.43
9.77
62.39%
NODK
NI Holdings
14.16
-0.69
-4.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.