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Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
:CLMT
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Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) AI Stock Analysis

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CLMT

Calumet Specialty Products

(NASDAQ:CLMT)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▼(-2.86% Downside)
Calumet Specialty Products' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenue, negative margins, and high leverage. Technical analysis provides some positive momentum, but valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call reflects operational improvements and strategic initiatives, but challenges in the renewable diesel market persist.
Positive Factors
Operational Cost Reductions
Reducing operating costs by $42 million enhances profitability and financial flexibility, allowing Calumet to allocate resources more efficiently and improve its competitive position.
Strong Specialty Products Performance
Consistent high sales volumes in specialty products indicate strong demand and market positioning, contributing to stable revenue streams and supporting long-term growth.
Deleveraging Efforts
Deleveraging by calling $230 million of notes reduces financial risk and interest expenses, improving balance sheet health and enhancing long-term financial stability.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Declining revenue indicates potential market challenges and reduced demand, which can impact long-term financial health and limit growth opportunities.
High Financial Leverage
High leverage with negative equity raises concerns about financial stability, increasing risk and potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Renewable Diesel Margin Pressure
Low margins in the renewable diesel sector reduce profitability and may hinder the company's ability to capitalize on growth opportunities in this emerging market.

Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCalumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel. This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyCalumet Specialty Products generates revenue through the production and sale of specialty and fuel products. The company's revenue model is primarily driven by the sale of its specialty products, which include high-performance lubricants, solvents, and other hydrocarbon-based products. These products typically command higher margins compared to conventional fuels, contributing significantly to the company's earnings. Additionally, Calumet benefits from its fuel products segment, which includes the sale of refined petroleum products. Key revenue streams also come from long-term contracts with various industrial customers, providing a stable cash flow. The company has also engaged in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its product offerings and market reach, further bolstering its financial performance.

Calumet Specialty Products Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of strong operational execution and cost management, particularly in specialty products and Montana/Renewables, but was tempered by challenges in the renewable diesel market due to low margins and regulatory uncertainties.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Achievement
Calumet earned $76.5 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes during the second quarter, with significant contributions from specialty products and Montana/Renewables.
Operational Cost Reductions
Operating costs were reduced by $42 million in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, despite an increase in natural gas and electricity costs.
Successful Cost Management in Montana/Renewables
Montana/Renewables generated $8.3 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, reflecting cost leadership and operational efficiency.
Strong Specialty Products Performance
Specialty margins remained resilient despite challenges, with sales volume exceeding 20,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter.
Renewable Diesel Market Competitiveness
Montana/Renewables demonstrated feed flexibility, strong SAF position, and competitive costs, achieving the highest throughput volumes yet.
Negative Updates
Renewable Diesel Margin Pressure
The Renewable Diesel industry saw its lowest quarterly index margin to date, affecting overall profitability.
Regulatory Uncertainty Impact
The uncertain regulatory environment continues to challenge the renewable diesel market, with expectations of margin recovery linked to regulatory clarity.
Rail Service Disruptions
Calumet faced significant costs due to disruptions from a key rail service provider, impacting logistics and customer supply.
SAF Production Tax Credit Reduction
The SAF PTC formula was reduced to match the renewable diesel PTC, decreasing the value of the credit by $0.40 to $0.50 per gallon.
Company Guidance
During Calumet Inc.'s Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call, significant performance metrics were highlighted. The company reported $76.5 million in adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes for the quarter. Montana/Renewables contributed $8.3 million to this total, evidencing resilience despite facing the lowest quarterly index margin to date in the renewable diesel industry. Specialty sales volume within the SPS segment continued strong, marking the third consecutive quarter with sales exceeding 20,000 barrels per day, while performance brands posted their second-highest quarterly sales volume. Operational improvements led to a $42 million reduction in operating costs in the first half of 2025, despite a $7 million increase in natural gas and electricity costs. The company also made strides in deleveraging, announcing a refresh of Shreveport terminal assets financing, which added $80 million in new cash, allowing for $230 million of 2026 notes to be called this year. Looking ahead, Calumet remains focused on strategic progress with their MaxSAF 150 project, aiming for a capital cost of $20 million to $30 million to produce 120 million to 150 million gallons of SAF annually by the first half of 2026.

Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Calumet Specialty Products faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability metrics. High leverage and negative equity highlight financial instability. While cash flow management shows some improvements, the overall financial health is concerning, requiring strategic measures to enhance operational efficiency and financial stability.
Income Statement
35
Negative
The company shows declining revenue with a negative revenue growth rate compared to previous periods. Gross profit margin is low and has deteriorated significantly, with negative EBIT and net profit margins indicating operational challenges and lack of profitability. The EBITDA margin has also decreased over time, reflecting difficulties in cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
High leverage is evident from a very high debt-to-equity ratio, as the company has negative equity. The negative return on equity reflects the company's inability to generate profit from its equity base. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring financial instability and potential risk to creditors and investors.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The company experiences negative free cash flow, indicating insufficient cash generation for reinvestment or debt repayment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio shows some improvement, indicating slight enhancements in managing free cash flow relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.07B4.19B4.18B4.69B3.15B2.27B
Gross Profit-36.50M230.80M502.30M350.80M142.90M210.10M
EBITDA-93.30M164.50M418.20M127.40M15.60M98.00M
Net Income-451.20M-222.00M48.10M-169.80M-254.90M-149.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.78B2.76B2.75B2.74B2.13B1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments110.60M38.10M7.90M35.20M38.10M109.40M
Total Debt231.80M2.34B2.19B1.67B1.58B1.51B
Total Liabilities3.54B3.22B3.00B3.03B2.51B1.94B
Stockholders Equity-1.01B-711.90M-491.60M-533.60M-10.10M-137.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-199.80M-123.10M-286.70M-435.60M-126.90M18.80M
Operating Cash Flow-126.90M-46.40M-14.90M100.60M-44.00M62.80M
Investing Cash Flow22.50M-76.70M-271.80M-536.00M-82.80M-46.30M
Financing Cash Flow280.40M154.30M266.20M348.70M139.30M73.80M

Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.56
Price Trends
50DMA
18.12
Positive
100DMA
16.86
Positive
200DMA
15.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.49
Negative
RSI
56.94
Neutral
STOCH
60.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.92, above the 50-day MA of 18.12, and above the 200-day MA of 15.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.

Calumet Specialty Products Risk Analysis

Calumet Specialty Products disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calumet Specialty Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$1.43B6.2716.84%18.92%11.56%
$832.90M20.776.49%10.28%3.96%29.26%
$1.62B-76.404.52%12.54%-2.89%-107.61%
$1.69B-6.56%10.59%-3044.85%
$1.93B-1.36%13.20%55.44%
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
$1.68B-4.57%-1574.88%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CLMT
Calumet Specialty Products
19.56
-1.56
-7.39%
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
13.24
-0.99
-6.96%
TALO
Talos Energy
9.81
-0.27
-2.68%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
21.75
-0.84
-3.72%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
12.00
-1.52
-11.24%
BKV
BKV Corporation
23.59
5.95
33.73%

Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events

Calumet Specialty Products’ Strong Quarter Amidst Challenges
Aug 12, 2025

Calumet Specialty Products Reports Strong Quarter Amidst Market Challenges

Calumet Specialty Products Reports Q2 2025 Results
Aug 9, 2025

Calumet Specialty Products, headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, is a diversified manufacturer and marketer of specialty branded products and renewable fuels, operating across consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet’s $120M Sale-Leaseback Deal Enhances Financial Position
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Calumet Shreveport Refining, LLC, a subsidiary of Calumet, Inc., entered into a sale and leaseback transaction with Stonebriar Commercial Finance LLC, valuing its Shreveport terminal assets at $120 million. This transaction, which extends the financing arrangement, will provide $80 million in proceeds to Calumet, which intends to use the funds to partially redeem its Senior Notes due 2026. The deal reflects Calumet’s strategic focus on improving operational efficiency and financial positioning, as emphasized by CEO Todd Borgmann, who noted the substantial value increase achieved through the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025