Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
NASDAQ:CLMT
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Calumet Specialty Products
(NASDAQ:CLMT)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-0.65% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—ongoing losses and a structurally stressed balance sheet with deeply negative equity—despite improving cash flow. Offsetting this, the earnings call and recent financing point to operational progress, deleveraging efforts, and improved liquidity, while technical signals are broadly neutral-to-moderately supportive and valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation and positive free cash flow
Calumet’s shift to positive operating and free cash flow after prior years of negative cash generation supports durable deleveraging and reinvestment. Sustained cash generation provides a structural buffer to fund turnarounds, capex for growth projects like MaxSAF, and reduce reliance on short-term bank liquidity.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative shareholders' equity
Persistently negative equity is a structural constraint on financial flexibility and raises covenant and refinancing sensitivity. Even with improved cash flow, negative equity limits access to unsecured capital, can complicate M&A or large investments, and heightens solvency risk if cash generation slows.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation and positive free cash flow
Calumet’s shift to positive operating and free cash flow after prior years of negative cash generation supports durable deleveraging and reinvestment. Sustained cash generation provides a structural buffer to fund turnarounds, capex for growth projects like MaxSAF, and reduce reliance on short-term bank liquidity.
Read all positive factors
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth-0.11%
EPS Growth45.72%
CountryUS
Employees1,620
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.16
Shares Outstanding87,147,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,172,105
30 Day Avg. Volume1,031,671
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)-2.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio30.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.50Price Target Upside19.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.43B
Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, w...
How the Company Makes Money
Calumet makes money primarily by converting crude oil and other feedstocks into refined and processed hydrocarbon products and selling those products to customers. Its revenue is driven by (1) sales of specialty products—such as specialty oils, so...
Calumet Specialty Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Calumet reported a year of meaningful strategic execution: strong adjusted EBITDA growth (~30% YoY), substantial deleveraging (restricted debt reduced >$220M and leverage improved from 8.2x to 4.9x), large cost and reliability improvements, record specialty volumes and margins, and tangible progress on Montana Renewables’ SAF expansion and contract book. Near‑term headwinds include a weak Q4 at Montana Renewables, industry‑wide compressed renewable diesel margins and regulatory uncertainty, transaction costs from PTC monetization, and a heavy 2026 turnaround schedule that raises near‑term CapEx and may cause downtime. Overall, the positive operational, financial and strategic milestones outweigh the transitory and industry-driven challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA and Year‑over‑Year Growth
Calumet delivered $293.3 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes for full year 2025 (stated as nearly a 30% increase year over year) and $69.3 million in the fourth quarter.
Negative Updates
Montana Renewables Q4 Loss and Margin Compression
Montana Renewables recorded a negative $5.4 million adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025; margins were compressed by a low 2025 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) and trough renewable fuel industry conditions which pressured index margins.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA and Year‑over‑Year Growth
Calumet delivered $293.3 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes for full year 2025 (stated as nearly a 30% increase year over year) and $69.3 million in the fourth quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized disciplined capital and operational execution: 2026 CapEx is forecast at $115–$145 million ( $70–$90M in the restricted group), ~$30–$40M above normal for a heavy turnaround year, yet total company production is expected to increase year‑over‑year; turnarounds (Shreveport, Cotton Valley, Princeton, Karnes City, Great Falls) will drive short‑term outages while Montana Renewables begins its MaxSAF 150 turnaround next week (offline through late April) with the expansion to 120–150 million gallons annual SAF targeted to be completed in Q2 and ramped into Q3, supported by roughly 100 million gallons of multiyear SAF contracts at $1–$2/gal premium and access to low‑CI feedstocks. Financial and operational targets include sustaining Specialty margins above $60/barrel and specialty volumes >20,000 bpd each quarter (SPS FY EBITDA $291.8M, Q4 $88.5M), Performance Brands FY EBITDA $47.9M (Q4 $5.4M), Montana Renewables FY EBITDA +$31.3M (Q4 -$5.4M) with H2 MRL operating costs averaging $0.41/gal (a 60% improvement vs two years), and Montana Asphalt expected to run $30–$50M EBITDA; company results in 2025 were $293.3M adjusted EBITDA (Q4 $69.3M) while management highlighted material cost and reliability gains (fixed costs down >$40M, water treatment down >$20M, transport savings ≈$19M, fixed cost per barrel down >$1, ~$20M lower capex) and continued deleveraging—restricted debt reduced >$220M in 2025 (nearly $80M this quarter), net recourse leverage improving from 8.2x to 4.9x, elimination of 2026/2027 maturities, and a DOE loan that removed roughly $80M of annual cash debt service—with priorities on durable free cash flow and value‑creating execution.Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.17B | 4.14B | 4.19B | 4.18B | 4.69B | 3.15B |
| Gross Profit | 239.60M | 245.70M | 230.80M | 451.70M | 351.70M | 142.90M |
| EBITDA | 108.40M | 238.40M | 164.50M | 418.20M | 104.30M | 15.60M |
| Net Income | -188.80M | -33.80M | -222.00M | 48.10M | -169.80M | -254.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.69B | 2.76B | 2.75B | 2.74B | 2.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.60M | 125.10M | 38.10M | 7.90M | 35.20M | 38.10M |
| Total Debt | 32.60M | 381.80M | 2.37B | 2.19B | 1.89B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.55B | 3.18B | 3.22B | 3.00B | 3.03B | 2.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.04B | -732.70M | -712.80M | -491.60M | -533.60M | -388.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.40M | 56.60M | -123.10M | -286.70M | -435.60M | -126.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 133.30M | 108.90M | -46.40M | -14.90M | 100.60M | -44.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.40M | 44.10M | -76.70M | -271.80M | -286.00M | -82.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.70M | 6.20M | 154.30M | 266.20M | 98.70M | 139.30M |
Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis
Positive
32.21
Price Trends
31.90
Positive
27.85
Positive
22.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
50.02
Neutral
14.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.54, above the 50-day MA of 31.90, and above the 200-day MA of 22.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.
Calumet Specialty Products Risk Analysis
Calumet Specialty Products disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calumet Specialty Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.72B | 51.23 | 10.68% | 13.84% | 0.87% | 770.57% | |
65 Neutral | $2.43B | -16.81 | 13.10% | 17.48% | 22.47% | -56.03% | |
64 Neutral | $3.12B | 16.50 | 15.50% | ― | 52.41% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $771.68M | -4.30 | -3.12% | 11.72% | 11.44% | -157.45% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $2.74B | -2.59 | -33.22% | ― | -15.43% | -3103.48% | |
52 Neutral | $2.73B | -2.46 | 21.70% | ― | -0.11% | 45.72% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLMT
Calumet Specialty Products
32.35
18.57
134.76%
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Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Calumet Announces Board Transition as Longtime Director Retires
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Calumet, Inc. board member Jennifer G. Straumins informed the board she would not stand for re-election and would retire at the end of her term at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, a decision the company said was not rela...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet Completes Senior Notes Offering to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Calumet’s subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. completed a $150 million private placement of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031 at 105% of par, generating roughly $154.9 million in net ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet Prices New Senior Notes to Refinance Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Calumet’s subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. priced a $150 million private placement of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2031 at 105% of par, with closing expected on March 17, 2026, as ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Calumet Specialty Products Plans Additional Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Calumet, Inc. said its subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. plan, subject to market conditions, to privately place $150 million of additional 9.75% senior notes due 2031 to eligible in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.