Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.74B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 654.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: -3.99%
• EPS Growth: 83.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,620
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 3.61
• Shares Outstanding: 86,754,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 741,469
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 654,856
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: -14.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.21
• 1Y Price Target: $23.67
• Price Target Upside: 17.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.12B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(1.99% Upside)

The score is held back mainly by weak financial fundamentals (negative profitability, negative equity, and negative operating/free cash flow). This is partially offset by improving technical trend/momentum, a strong and strategically optimistic earnings call, and a positive debt-maturity extension that lowers near-term refinancing risk, while valuation remains challenged due to losses (negative P/E) and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Specialty Products scale and margins

Sustained record volumes and high per-barrel margins in Specialty Products indicate a structurally stronger, higher-margin core business. Durable scale in specialty hydrocarbons supports pricing power, reduces commodity cyclicality exposure, and underpins more predictable operating cash generation over time.

MaxSAF expansion increases renewable capacity

A validated 120–150M gallon SAF capability represents a durable strategic shift into higher-growth, policy-supported markets. Long-term demand drivers (RVOs, airline decarbonization) and higher-margin renewable fuels can materially improve revenue mix and resilience vs. traditional fuel cycles.

Deleveraging and structural cost transformation

Meaningful restricted-debt reduction and structural cost savings, plus proceeds from a major divestiture, improve balance-sheet flexibility. These durable actions lower structural leverage, support future free cash flow generation, and reduce refinancing risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Negative stockholders' equity and high leverage

Negative equity reflects cumulative losses and creates durable solvency concerns: it limits access to equity capital, heightens covenant and creditor vulnerability, and constrains strategic options, increasing reliance on operational turnaround to restore financial flexibility.

Negative operating and free cash flows

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow impairs the firm's ability to self-fund capex, service debt, and reinvest in growth. Over months, this forces dependence on external financing or asset sales and makes sustaining investments in SAF and specialty expansions more challenging.

High-cost long-dated debt issuance

Refinancing near-term maturities into high-coupon, long-dated debt reduces rollover risk but locks in substantial interest costs. Structurally higher financing expense erodes free cash flow and requires persistent operating improvement to cover interest and deleveraging goals over multiple years.

Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel. This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Calumet Specialty Products generates revenue through the production and sale of specialty hydrocarbon products across its various segments. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the sale of its specialty products, which include lubricants, waxes, solvents, and asphalt. Key revenue streams come from both direct sales to customers and long-term contracts with industrial clients. Additionally, Calumet benefits from partnerships with other companies for the distribution and marketing of its products, enhancing its market reach. The company's ability to leverage its refining capabilities and technology to produce high-value specialty products contributes significantly to its earnings, especially in a market that increasingly favors customized solutions.

Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is pressured by negative net margins, inconsistent EBIT/EBITDA margins, negative stockholders’ equity (high balance-sheet risk), and negative operating/free cash flow in TTM. Slight improvement in gross margin and improved ROE are positives but not enough to offset leverage and persistent losses.

Income Statement

Calumet Specialty Products has experienced fluctuating revenue growth with a recent decline in TTM. The gross profit margin has improved slightly in TTM compared to previous years, but net profit margins remain negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been inconsistent, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company has a negative stockholders' equity, leading to a negative debt-to-equity ratio, which is a significant risk factor. Although the return on equity has shown improvement in TTM, the overall financial stability is concerning due to high leverage and negative equity.

Cash Flow

Calumet's cash flow position is weak, with negative operating and free cash flows in TTM. The free cash flow growth rate has been negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively high, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.05B	4.19B	4.18B	4.69B	3.15B	2.27B
Gross Profit	332.30M	230.80M	451.70M	351.70M	142.90M	99.10M
EBITDA	208.10M	164.50M	418.20M	104.30M	15.60M	83.10M
Net Income	-37.20M	-222.00M	48.10M	-169.80M	-254.90M	-149.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.73B	2.76B	2.75B	2.74B	2.13B	1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	94.60M	38.10M	7.90M	35.20M	38.10M	109.40M
Total Debt	2.30B	2.37B	2.19B	1.89B	1.76B	1.51B
Total Liabilities	3.18B	3.22B	3.00B	3.03B	2.51B	1.94B
Stockholders Equity	-695.30M	-712.80M	-491.60M	-533.60M	-388.90M	-137.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-75.60M	-123.10M	-286.70M	-435.60M	-126.90M	18.80M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.00M	-46.40M	-14.90M	100.60M	-44.00M	62.80M
Investing Cash Flow	30.80M	-76.70M	-271.80M	-286.00M	-82.80M	-46.30M
Financing Cash Flow	112.50M	154.30M	266.20M	98.70M	139.30M	73.80M

Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.84, above the 50-day MA of 19.51, and above the 200-day MA of 16.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.

Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNR	81 Outperform	$1.84B	11.40	6.68%	17.48%	9.33%	―
KRP	64 Neutral	$1.54B	-69.73	4.73%	13.84%	-2.71%	-113.80%
TALO	63 Neutral	$2.03B	-5.77	-13.71%	―	-0.02%	-473.61%
BKV	62 Neutral	$2.47B	49.25	2.62%	―	31.67%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
VTS	59 Neutral	$775.41M	41.92	3.50%	11.72%	6.23%	-64.88%
CLMT	54 Neutral	$1.74B	-46.23	―	―	-3.99%	83.80%

Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events

Calumet Specialty Products Completes Upsized Senior Notes Offering

On January 12, 2026, Calumet’s subsidiaries Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. and Calumet Finance Corp. completed an upsized private placement of $405 million in 9.75% senior notes due 2031, issued at 98.996% of par for net proceeds of about $393 million. The offering, increased from an originally planned $350 million and described as oversubscribed, will be used alongside cash on hand and borrowings under Calumet’s revolving credit facility to redeem the company’s outstanding 11.00% senior notes due 2026 and 8.125% senior notes due 2027, effectively eliminating near-term senior note maturities. Management linked the strong investor demand to more than $220 million of restricted group debt reduction in 2025 and over $120 million of cash generation in the second half of 2025, positioning Calumet with a longer debt maturity runway to support continued cash flow from its specialties segment and the expansion of its Montana Renewables MaxSAF 150 project.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Calumet Specialty Products Prices New Senior Notes Offering

On January 7, 2026, Calumet and its subsidiaries priced an upsized $405 million private placement of 9.75% senior notes due 2031, issued at 98.996% of par in a Rule 144A/Reg S offering, with closing expected on January 12, 2026. The company plans to use the approximately $393 million in net proceeds, together with cash on hand and borrowings under its revolving credit facility, to redeem all of its outstanding 11.00% senior notes due 2026 and 8.125% senior notes due 2027, a move that restructures its debt maturity profile and consolidates funding through a higher-coupon but longer-dated instrument, with several initial purchasers and their affiliates also positioned as creditors, agents under its revolver, and derivatives counterparties.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Calumet Specialty Products Announces New Senior Notes Offering

On January 6, 2026, Calumet, Inc. said its subsidiaries plan, subject to market conditions, to privately place $350 million of senior unsecured notes due 2031, with proceeds, together with cash and revolver borrowings, earmarked to redeem all of their 11.00% senior notes due 2026 around January 21, 2026 and $275 million of 8.125% senior notes due 2027 around January 16, 2026, effectively extending the company’s debt maturities and continuing a multi‑year balance‑sheet de‑leveraging drive. The transaction comes as Calumet highlights cost reductions of $60 million over the first three quarters of 2025, record production in its Specialty Products and Solutions segment, ongoing infrastructure upgrades at key facilities such as Shreveport, and the expansion of its Montana Renewables operations—including the MaxSAF 150 project that targets 120–150 million gallons of annual sustainable aviation fuel production by the second quarter of 2026—underscoring its strategic push toward higher‑margin specialty and renewable products and more resilient cash flows.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.