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Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT)
NASDAQ:CLMT
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Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) AI Stock Analysis

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CLMT

Calumet Specialty Products

(NASDAQ:CLMT)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(0.38%Upside)
The stock's score reflects significant financial challenges and valuation issues, despite positive impacts from strategic maneuvers and corporate events. Technical indicators are neutral, suggesting a cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Market Conditions
CLMT is capable of processing all major feedstock types, allowing it to optimize feed slate and LCFS credit exposure as market conditions evolve.
Regulatory Approval
The California Air Resources Board's approval of new Low Carbon Fuel Standard rules supports market deficit and higher credit prices.
Negative Factors
Profitability Concerns
The marginal cost to produce the proposed renewable diesel volumes is high, potentially impacting profitability.
Renewable Diesel Demand
The proposed demand for renewable diesel and biodiesel by the EPA is lower than previously expected, which disappointed the market and affected CLMT stock negatively.

Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCalumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (CLMT) is a prominent producer of specialty hydrocarbon products in North America. The company operates primarily in two sectors: Specialty Products and Fuel Products. Calumet's core products include specialty lubricants, waxes, solvents, and gels, alongside offering fuel products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company is known for its extensive refining capabilities and focuses on serving niche markets that demand high-quality, customized products.
How the Company Makes MoneyCalumet Specialty Products generates revenue through the refining and sale of specialty hydrocarbon products and fuel products. The company operates refineries that produce high-margin specialty products, which are sold to a wide range of industries, including automotive, industrial, and consumer goods. The Fuel Products segment contributes to earnings by refining and marketing gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Calumet's revenue model is bolstered by its ability to customize products to meet specific customer needs, fostering strong customer relationships and repeat business. Strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with key customers also play a significant role in ensuring stable revenue streams and market presence.

Calumet Specialty Products Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 34.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Calumet demonstrated strong financial and operational performance with successful debt reduction, strong specialty products performance, and accelerated project timelines in the renewable segment. However, challenges in the renewable market caused by regulatory changes and operational difficulties during winter posed some headwinds.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful DOE Loan and Debt Reduction
Calumet closed and funded the first DOE loan under the Trump administration, reducing annual cash flow from debt service by approximately $80 million per year.
Strong Specialty Products Performance
Specialty Products segment generated $56.3 million in adjusted EBITDA, with one of the highest quarters on record for SPS volumes at approximately 23,000 barrels per day.
Accretive Sale of Royal Purple Industrial Business
The sale brought in roughly $100 million of cash proceeds at an attractive multiple, streamlining the Performance Brands segment.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Operating costs were reduced by over $22 million compared to the previous year, driven by innovations at Montana Renewables and improvements in the specialty business.
MaxSAF Project Acceleration
Expectations improved for the Montana Renewables MaxSAF project, achieving 150 million gallons of SAF capacity more cheaply and quickly, with capital costs reduced from $150-$250 million to $20-$30 million.
Performance Brands Growth
Performance Brands segment posted strong quarterly results of $15.8 million, reflecting volume growth and commercial improvements.
Negative Updates
Challenging Renewable Market Dynamics
Montana Renewables generated $2.4 million of adjusted EBITDA, with significant cash losses linked to PTC changes and a record low index margin quarter.
Impact of Regulatory Environment
Uncertainty in RVO guidance and regulatory changes around BTC and PTC affected earnings visibility and market conditions.
Winter Operational Challenges
Freezing conditions in Northwest Louisiana posed operational challenges, impacting the first quarter's results.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Calumet, Inc. provided guidance on several key metrics, emphasizing strategic financial maneuvers and operational efficiencies. The company reported a successful quarter characterized by a $150 million partial call of 2026 notes as part of its deleveraging strategy and completion of the accretive sale of the Royal Purple industrial business. Calumet also forecasted a significant milestone in its Montana Renewables MaxSAF project, expecting to reach 150 million gallons of SAF capacity more cheaply and quickly than initially planned. Operationally, the company highlighted a $22 million reduction in total system operating costs, driven by a $5 per barrel cost reduction, despite a $4 million increase in natural gas expenses. The specialty business saw an 8% increase in production volume, with operational costs improved by $1.50 per barrel. Additionally, Montana Renewables generated $2.4 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, showcasing resilience in a challenging market environment. The company also announced an ambitious plan to increase SAF production to 120-150 million gallons by early 2026 for $20-$30 million of capital, leveraging existing assets for this expansion.

Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Calumet Specialty Products shows significant financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability metrics. High leverage and negative equity highlight financial instability. Cash flow management shows slight improvements, but overall financial health is concerning.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company shows declining revenue with a negative revenue growth rate compared to previous periods. Gross profit margin is low and has deteriorated significantly, with negative EBIT and net profit margins indicating operational challenges and lack of profitability. The EBITDA margin has also decreased over time, reflecting difficulties in cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
High leverage is evident from a very high debt-to-equity ratio, as the company has negative equity. The negative return on equity reflects the company's inability to generate profit from its equity base. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring financial instability and potential risk to creditors and investors.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
The company experiences negative free cash flow, indicating insufficient cash generation for reinvestment or debt repayment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio shows some improvement, indicating slight enhancements in managing free cash flow relative to net income.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.19B4.18B4.69B3.15B2.27B
Gross Profit230.80M502.30M350.80M142.90M210.10M
EBITDA202.50M418.20M127.40M15.60M98.00M
Net Income-222.00M48.10M-173.30M-254.90M-149.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.76B2.75B2.74B2.13B1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments38.10M7.90M35.20M38.10M109.40M
Total Debt2.34B2.19B1.67B1.58B1.41B
Total Liabilities3.22B3.00B3.03B2.51B1.94B
Stockholders Equity-711.90M-491.60M-287.70M-10.10M0.00
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-123.10M-286.70M-435.60M-126.90M18.80M
Operating Cash Flow-46.40M-14.90M100.60M-44.00M62.80M
Investing Cash Flow-76.70M-271.80M-536.00M-82.80M-46.30M
Financing Cash Flow154.30M266.20M348.70M139.30M73.80M

Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price15.94
Price Trends
50DMA
15.46
Positive
100DMA
13.49
Positive
200DMA
16.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Positive
RSI
47.11
Neutral
STOCH
33.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.52, above the 50-day MA of 15.46, and below the 200-day MA of 16.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CLMT.

Calumet Specialty Products Risk Analysis

Calumet Specialty Products disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calumet Specialty Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$924.02M30.734.24%9.09%4.15%3.91%
66
Neutral
$974.77M12.52798.58%7.61%-11.35%-11.76%
66
Neutral
$910.71M
61
Neutral
$9.52B9.43-1.39%3.00%3.05%-61.98%
61
Neutral
$1.11B4.03-1.15%-11.11%-105.10%
52
Neutral
$1.42B31.18%0.67%-6298.08%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CLMT
Calumet Specialty Products
15.94
4.10
34.63%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
2.15
-2.74
-56.03%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
66.29
9.89
17.54%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
23.93
2.29
10.58%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
14.91
-6.98
-31.89%

Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Calumet’s $120M Sale-Leaseback Deal Enhances Financial Position
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Calumet Shreveport Refining, LLC, a subsidiary of Calumet, Inc., entered into a sale and leaseback transaction with Stonebriar Commercial Finance LLC, valuing its Shreveport terminal assets at $120 million. This transaction, which extends the financing arrangement, will provide $80 million in proceeds to Calumet, which intends to use the funds to partially redeem its Senior Notes due 2026. The deal reflects Calumet’s strategic focus on improving operational efficiency and financial positioning, as emphasized by CEO Todd Borgmann, who noted the substantial value increase achieved through the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Calumet Specialty Products Holds 2025 Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Calumet, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where four key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders elected four Class I directors to serve until 2028, approved the executive compensation on a non-binding basis, decided to hold annual advisory votes on executive compensation, and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Calumet Appoints John R. Krutz as New CAO
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Calumet, Inc. announced the appointment of John R. Krutz as the new Chief Accounting Officer, replacing David A. Lunin in this role. Mr. Krutz brings extensive experience from his previous roles at Acculevel, Inc. and CliftonLarsonAllen, and his appointment is expected to enhance the company’s financial leadership and operational effectiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Calumet Chair Terminates Stock Trading Plan
Neutral
May 15, 2025

Stephen Mawer, Chair of the Board of Directors of Calumet, Inc., adopted a trading plan on November 15, 2024, to comply with Rule 10b5-1(c) under the Securities Exchange Act. The plan, which began on March 6, 2025, and was set to end on December 31, 2025, allowed for the sale of up to 40,205 shares of common stock. However, on May 13, 2025, Mr. Mawer terminated the plan after 10,965 shares had been sold.

The most recent analyst rating on (CLMT) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Calumet Specialty Products stock, see the CLMT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025