Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 870.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.49
• Revenue Growth: -4.57%
• EPS Growth: -1574.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,620
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -1.70
• Shares Outstanding: 86,752,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,023,569
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 870,716
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -109.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -42.77
• 1Y Price Target: $20.08
• Price Target Upside: 25.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▼(-3.13% Downside)

Calumet's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, which is a significant concern. While there are positive aspects such as operational improvements and strategic financial moves, the ongoing financial challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score. The technical analysis provides mixed signals, and while the earnings call and corporate events offer some optimism, they are not enough to offset the financial weaknesses.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The company lowered its operating costs meaningfully, positioning itself well for significant operating leverage once the margin environment for renewables improves.

Financial Strategy

CLMT has signed term-sheets to monetize 50% of PTC generated to date, indicating progress in financial strategy without needing regulatory updates.

Regulatory Environment

Regulatory overhang has been lifted with the extension of the 45Z tax credits through 2029 and stricter Low-Carbon Fuel Standards targets through 2030.

Negative Factors

Debt and Cash Flow

There is a remaining balance of approximately $120MM on CLMT's debt due 2026, with limited free cash flow generation forecasted.

Specialty Margins

The estimate for 2Q25 EBITDA has been revised lower by $20MM, primarily due to a decline in Specialty margins and crude volatility.

Tax Impact

The recent US Tax Bill has reduced the higher Producer Tax Credit value, impacting CLMT's business profitability.

Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calumet, Inc. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company's Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel. This segment also processes Canadian crude oil into conventional gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and specialty grades of asphalt. Its Performance Brands segment blends, packages, and markets high performance products through Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. Calumet GP, LLC serves as the general partner for Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Calumet Specialty Products generates revenue through the production and sale of specialty and fuel products. The company's revenue model is primarily driven by the sale of its specialty products, which include high-performance lubricants, solvents, and other hydrocarbon-based products. These products typically command higher margins compared to conventional fuels, contributing significantly to the company's earnings. Additionally, Calumet benefits from its fuel products segment, which includes the sale of refined petroleum products. Key revenue streams also come from long-term contracts with various industrial customers, providing a stable cash flow. The company has also engaged in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its product offerings and market reach, further bolstering its financial performance.

Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Calumet Specialty Products faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability metrics. High leverage and negative equity highlight financial instability. While cash flow management shows some improvements, the overall financial health is concerning, requiring strategic measures to enhance operational efficiency and financial stability.

Income Statement

The company shows declining revenue with a negative revenue growth rate compared to previous periods. Gross profit margin is low and has deteriorated significantly, with negative EBIT and net profit margins indicating operational challenges and lack of profitability. The EBITDA margin has also decreased over time, reflecting difficulties in cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

High leverage is evident from a very high debt-to-equity ratio, as the company has negative equity. The negative return on equity reflects the company's inability to generate profit from its equity base. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring financial instability and potential risk to creditors and investors.

Cash Flow

The company experiences negative free cash flow, indicating insufficient cash generation for reinvestment or debt repayment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio shows some improvement, indicating slight enhancements in managing free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.07B	4.19B	4.18B	4.69B	3.15B	2.27B
Gross Profit	-36.50M	230.80M	502.30M	350.80M	142.90M	210.10M
EBITDA	-93.30M	164.50M	418.20M	127.40M	15.60M	98.00M
Net Income	-451.20M	-222.00M	48.10M	-169.80M	-254.90M	-149.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.78B	2.76B	2.75B	2.74B	2.13B	1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	110.60M	38.10M	7.90M	35.20M	38.10M	109.40M
Total Debt	231.80M	2.34B	2.19B	1.67B	1.58B	1.51B
Total Liabilities	3.54B	3.22B	3.00B	3.03B	2.51B	1.94B
Stockholders Equity	-1.01B	-711.90M	-491.60M	-533.60M	-10.10M	-137.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-199.80M	-123.10M	-286.70M	-435.60M	-126.90M	18.80M
Operating Cash Flow	-126.90M	-46.40M	-14.90M	100.60M	-44.00M	62.80M
Investing Cash Flow	22.50M	-76.70M	-271.80M	-536.00M	-82.80M	-46.30M
Financing Cash Flow	280.40M	154.30M	266.20M	348.70M	139.30M	73.80M

Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.78, above the 50-day MA of 15.71, and above the 200-day MA of 15.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.

Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTS	77 Outperform	$1.02B	25.46	6.49%	8.11%	3.96%	29.26%
SBR	66 Neutral	$1.05B	14.27	987.03%	7.39%	-16.05%	-17.58%
INR	66 Neutral	$861.40M	―		―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.31B	6.18	0.76%	2.94%	3.30%	-36.34%
KOS	53 Neutral	$860.86M	4.03	-14.81%	―	-21.77%	-160.32%
CLMT	47 Neutral	$1.39B	―	31.18%	―	-4.57%	-1574.88%
TXO	―	$762.60M	45.26	1.92%	15.96%	―	―

Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events

Calumet’s $120M Sale-Leaseback Deal Enhances Financial Position

On July 25, 2025, Calumet Shreveport Refining, LLC, a subsidiary of Calumet, Inc., entered into a sale and leaseback transaction with Stonebriar Commercial Finance LLC, valuing its Shreveport terminal assets at $120 million. This transaction, which extends the financing arrangement, will provide $80 million in proceeds to Calumet, which intends to use the funds to partially redeem its Senior Notes due 2026. The deal reflects Calumet’s strategic focus on improving operational efficiency and financial positioning, as emphasized by CEO Todd Borgmann, who noted the substantial value increase achieved through the transaction.

Calumet Specialty Products Holds 2025 Annual Stockholder Meeting

On June 10, 2025, Calumet, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders where four key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders elected four Class I directors to serve until 2028, approved the executive compensation on a non-binding basis, decided to hold annual advisory votes on executive compensation, and ratified Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025.