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Calumet Specialty Products
(NASDAQ:CLMT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(8.66% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/04/26
CLMT’s score reflects strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings-call outlook tied to Montana Renewables ramp and expected near-term cash flow improvement. These positives are tempered primarily by weak financial fundamentals—ongoing losses and a structurally stressed balance sheet with deeply negative equity—while valuation is only neutral given the negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improved Cash Generation
Calumet’s shift to sustained positive operating and free cash flow is a durable fundamental improvement. Strong TTM cash generation increases capacity to fund capex, support the Montana Renewables ramp and repay debt, improving financial flexibility over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Deeply Negative Equity
Persistently negative equity is a structural balance‑sheet impairment that limits financing options and increases refinancing and covenant risk. Even with improving cash flow, deeply negative equity constrains long‑term strategic flexibility and raises creditor sensitivity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Cash Generation
Calumet’s shift to sustained positive operating and free cash flow is a durable fundamental improvement. Strong TTM cash generation increases capacity to fund capex, support the Montana Renewables ramp and repay debt, improving financial flexibility over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)900.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-0.11%
EPS Growth45.72%
CountryUS
Employees1,503
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.16
Shares Outstanding87,147,150
10 Day Avg. Volume867,806
30 Day Avg. Volume900,724
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.60
Price to Book (P/B)-2.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio30.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-116.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.33Price Target Upside34.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.58B
Calumet Specialty Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Calumet, Inc. engages in the manufacturing, formulation, and sale of specialty branded products and renewable fuel. It operates through the following segments: Specialty Products and Solutions, Montana/Renewables, Performance Brands, and Corporate...
How the Company Makes Money
Calumet makes money primarily by converting hydrocarbon feedstocks (e.g., crude oil and other petroleum-based feedstocks) into higher-value finished products and selling them to end markets through a mix of specialty product sales and fuels/refini...
Calumet Specialty Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook: management highlighted a favorable macro margin environment (strong crack spreads and a supportive Set 2 RVO), successful completion and start-up of the Montana Renewables expansion, meaningful EBITDA improvement at Renewables, resilient specialties performance (six consecutive quarters >20k bpd and $54/boe specialties margin), and targeted hedging to de-risk high-margin fuels. Offsetting these positives were Q1 execution headwinds (Shreveport downtime, organic chloride contamination with ~750k barrels lost and >$30M of opportunity cost), temporary specialty EBITDA compression versus last year, hedge losses (~$6M realized) and working capital pressure from rapid price moves. Overall, the favorable market dynamics, strategic milestones, and remediation of operational issues suggest that highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Market Environment and Positioning
Calumet entered one of the strongest margin environments across traditional and renewable energy markets following the EPA Set 2 RVO. Management expects continued upside capture across fuels and specialties as commodity spreads widened and industry utilization improves.
Negative Updates
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Decline vs Prior Year
Adjusted EBITDA was $50.1 million in Q1 2026 versus $55.0 million in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 8.9%, largely attributed to operational downtime at Shreveport and related impacts.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Market Environment and Positioning
Calumet entered one of the strongest margin environments across traditional and renewable energy markets following the EPA Set 2 RVO. Management expects continued upside capture across fuels and specialties as commodity spreads widened and industry utilization improves.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that Q2 should see materially stronger cash flow as Montana Renewables ramps post‑MaxSAF 150 and fuels/spreads remain elevated, citing Q1 results of $50.1M adjusted EBITDA (with tax attributes) — $44.3M from Specialties, $12.6M from Performance Brands and $10.2M from Montana/Renewables (MRL $8.8M on a Calumet‑owned 87% basis) — with Specialty volumes >20,000 bpd for a sixth consecutive quarter; they noted a Shreveport disruption cost ~750,000 barrels and ≈$30M of lost opportunity (plant ran ~50,000 bpd in April) and MRL spent ≈$15M CapEx in Q1 (expecting the site to generate $30–50M annual EBITDA in a normal environment). Forward metrics include a 2026 full‑year 2:1:1 crack north of $42/ bbl, renewable diesel index >$3/gal at quarter end (long‑run equilibrium >$2/gal), SAF contractual premiums of $1–$2/gal and a 4–5x SAF annual run‑rate uplift from the expansion; hedges cover ~10,000 bpd (~25% of fuel) for 2026 at ≈$22/ bbl (incurring ≈$6M realized hedge losses in Q1) plus ~10,000 bpd for 2027 at ≈$27/ bbl, and management reiterated using cash (including a recent $150M tack‑on) to accelerate deleveraging as call protection eases in July.Calumet Specialty Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.17B | 4.14B | 4.19B | 4.18B | 4.69B | 3.15B |
| Gross Profit | 239.60M | 245.70M | 230.80M | 451.70M | 351.70M | 142.90M |
| EBITDA | -43.70M | 238.40M | 164.50M | 418.20M | 104.30M | 15.60M |
| Net Income | -188.80M | -33.80M | -222.00M | 48.10M | -169.80M | -254.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.69B | 2.76B | 2.75B | 2.74B | 2.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.60M | 125.10M | 38.10M | 7.90M | 35.20M | 38.10M |
| Total Debt | 2.33B | 2.46B | 2.37B | 2.19B | 1.89B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.55B | 3.18B | 3.22B | 3.00B | 3.03B | 2.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.04B | -732.70M | -712.80M | -491.60M | -533.60M | -388.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.40M | 56.60M | -123.10M | -286.70M | -435.60M | -126.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 133.30M | 108.90M | -46.40M | -14.90M | 100.60M | -44.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.40M | 44.10M | -76.70M | -271.80M | -286.00M | -82.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.70M | 6.20M | 154.30M | 266.20M | 98.70M | 139.30M |
Calumet Specialty Products Technical Analysis
Positive
32.21
Price Trends
33.61
Positive
31.80
Positive
25.67
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
56.72
Neutral
58.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLMT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.58, below the 50-day MA of 33.61, and above the 200-day MA of 25.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLMT.
Calumet Specialty Products Risk Analysis
Calumet Specialty Products disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Calumet Specialty Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Calumet Specialty Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.70B | 19.89 | 10.68% | 13.84% | 0.87% | 770.57% | |
68 Neutral | $2.11B | 17.11 | 13.10% | 17.48% | 22.47% | -56.03% | |
65 Neutral | $657.80M | -32.86 | -3.12% | 11.72% | 11.44% | -157.45% | |
63 Neutral | $2.99B | 8.27 | 15.50% | ― | 52.41% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $3.14B | -16.57 | 21.70% | ― | -0.11% | 45.72% | |
57 Neutral | $2.16B | -3.03 | -33.22% | ― | -15.43% | -3103.48% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLMT
Calumet Specialty Products
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20.48
131.79%
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Calumet Specialty Products Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Calumet Stockholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor Plans
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Calumet, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected three Class II directors—Todd Borgmann, Daniel J. Sajkowski and Bradford T. Sanders—to serve until the 2029 Annual Meeting. The vot...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.