China Merchants Bank (CIHKY)
OTHER OTC:CIHKY
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China Merchants Bank
(OTC:CIHKY)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(11.32% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/03/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high and improving profitability, strengthening leverage/capital profile) and a supportive earnings-call outlook focused on efficiency and diversified growth. The main constraints are slowing revenue/top-line momentum and margin pressure (ongoing NIM compression), while technical signals are broadly neutral and valuation support comes mainly from the high dividend yield given the unavailable/invalid P/E.
Positive Factors
Improving profitability
Sustained net margin expansion to ~32% reflects durable operating leverage and pricing discipline. Higher margins increase internal capital generation, support dividends and RWA growth plans, and provide a multi-quarter buffer against cyclical shocks to loan demand or fee income.
Negative Factors
Net interest margin compression
Persistent NIM pressure from a low‑spread environment structurally reduces core banking earnings. Even with funding cost gains, prolonged compression weakens sustainable pre‑provision income, forcing reliance on fee growth, cost cuts, or riskier lending to defend ROE.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving profitability
Sustained net margin expansion to ~32% reflects durable operating leverage and pricing discipline. Higher margins increase internal capital generation, support dividends and RWA growth plans, and provide a multi-quarter buffer against cyclical shocks to loan demand or fee income.
Read all positive factors
China Merchants Bank (CIHKY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$147.67B
Dividend Yield4.24%
Average Volume (3M)2.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-4.34%
EPS Growth2.00%
CountryUS
Employees117,201
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding918,180,240
10 Day Avg. Volume1,781
30 Day Avg. Volume2,292
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.74
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.66
P/FCF Ratio2.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.54
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
China Merchants Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services. It operates through Wholesale Finance Business, Retail Finance Business, and Other Business segments. The company offers current, deman...
How the Company Makes Money
China Merchants Bank primarily earns money through a mix of interest-based income and fee/commission-based income, supported by treasury/market activities. (1) Net interest income: The bank takes in customer deposits and other funding sources and ...
China Merchants Bank Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a resilient performance: modest but positive profit growth, strong deposit and AUM expansion, notable retail and international/ subsidiaries progress, and meaningful technology/AI-driven efficiency gains. Key weaknesses are continued NIM compression, slightly lower capital and allowance-coverage metrics, modest top-line growth, and pockets of retail and property-related credit stress. Management’s tone is confident and proactive — emphasizing disciplined liability management, fee diversification, capital stewardship, and accelerated AI/digital and international initiatives to offset margin pressures.Positive Updates
Stable Profitability with Modest Growth
Net operating income RMB 337.2 billion, up 0.05% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 150.2 billion, up 1.21% YoY. ROAA 1.19% and ROAE 13.44% (ROAE down 1.05 ppt YoY) showing continued profitability and industry-leading returns despite a challenging environment.
Negative Updates
NIM Compression and Margin Pressure
Net interest margin 1.87%, down 11 bps YoY. Management expects NIM to continue to decline in 2026 (but at a smaller magnitude), reflecting ongoing low-rate, low-spread environment and repricing pressure (large share of loans to be repriced early in the year).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Profitability with Modest Growth
Net operating income RMB 337.2 billion, up 0.05% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders RMB 150.2 billion, up 1.21% YoY. ROAA 1.19% and ROAE 13.44% (ROAE down 1.05 ppt YoY) showing continued profitability and industry-leading returns despite a challenging environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized sticking to a “value‑creation” strategy focused on three core capabilities (wealth management, digital/AI-first technology and risk) and four initiatives (including faster international and comprehensive development), while managing capital, margin and asset quality: management said it will aim to keep NIM at an industry‑leading level (2025 NIM 1.87%, down 11bps y/y) and expects NIM to continue to decline but with a smaller magnitude than 2025 and to seek stability—targeting normalization by H2 2026; it will optimize RWA growth around the mid‑to‑high single digits (~9–10%) and preserve strong capital (2025 AMA core Tier‑1 14.16%/Tier‑1 16.51%/CAR 18.27%; standardized core Tier‑1 11.92%/Tier‑1 13.90%/CAR 15.00) while keeping dividend policy balanced; the bank will defend ROE (2025 ROAE 13.44%) with a management objective to avoid sustained falls toward the low teens (management cited a ~10% floor as a reference), push further into wealth (retail AUM >RMB17tn; retail deposits RMB4.5tn), broaden corporate and cross‑border growth (2025 loans RMB7.26tn; total assets >RMB13tn; customer deposits RMB9.84tn; overseas assets +12.88% and overseas NOI +33.78% in 2025), accelerate digital/AI investment (IT spend RMB12.9bn = 4.31% of NOI; R&D staff >11,000; avg token throughput +10.1x; >10,000 large‑model developers; 183 domain models; 800+ applications), maintain cost efficiency (cost‑to‑income 32.01%), and keep asset quality under control (2025 NPL balance RMB68.2bn, NPL ratio 0.94%, credit cost 0.60%, allowance coverage 391.79%), with continued emphasis on prudent pricing, liability management and capital allocation to support sustainable, higher‑quality growth.China Merchants Bank Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 467.82B | 497.85B | 497.59B | 477.40B | 450.36B |
| Gross Profit | 332.06B | 334.86B | 336.65B | 342.26B | 327.22B |
| EBITDA | 194.38B | 194.24B | 192.06B | 179.72B | 161.70B |
| Net Income | 150.18B | 148.39B | 146.60B | 138.01B | 119.92B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.07T | 12.15T | 11.03T | 10.14T | 9.25T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.97T | 1.21T | 1.07T | 960.91B | 846.62B |
| Total Debt | 405.44B | 471.07B | 436.55B | 429.69B | 631.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.79T | 10.92T | 9.94T | 9.18T | 8.38T |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.27T | 1.23T | 1.08T | 945.50B | 858.75B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 423.32B | 412.09B | 327.59B | 535.25B | 157.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 451.46B | 447.02B | 357.75B | 570.14B | 182.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -324.92B | -292.86B | -255.11B | -513.93B | -19.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -169.94B | 2.15B | -72.99B | -297.03B | 89.36B |
China Merchants Bank Technical Analysis
Positive
32.34
Price Trends
31.30
Positive
31.68
Positive
31.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
58.20
Neutral
97.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CIHKY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.45, above the 50-day MA of 31.30, and above the 200-day MA of 31.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CIHKY.
China Merchants Bank Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $147.67B | 8.30 | 11.95% | 4.24% | -4.34% | 2.00% | |
72 Outperform | $89.23B | 10.18 | 11.88% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
69 Neutral | $98.51B | 18.92 | 15.95% | 0.85% | 10.85% | 7.98% | |
69 Neutral | $86.40B | 10.95 | 12.12% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $133.98B | 21.06 | 13.09% | 3.03% | -1.78% | 0.65% | |
57 Neutral | $105.91B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
CIHKY
China Merchants Bank
31.92
5.50
20.80%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
26.73
-6.61
-19.83%
IBN
Icici Bank
27.73
-3.34
-10.75%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
8.63
3.90
82.45%
PNC
PNC Financial
221.13
71.27
47.56%
USB
US Bancorp
55.66
19.01
51.89%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.