Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $932.28M
• Dividend Yield: 4.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 912.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 6.27%
• EPS Growth: 79.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 583
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 129,844,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,314,560
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 912,571
• PEG Ratio: 0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.30
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: 4.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $227.09M

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(11.42% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by mid-range but improving financial performance (rebound in profitability and solid cash conversion) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a 5% yield). Technicals are positive but appear overextended (high RSI/Stoch), while corporate events add a modest positive tilt due to shareholder-friendly actions and operational momentum.

Positive Factors

Commercial banking diversification

The strategic shift into full-service commercial banking, higher commercial loans and growing commercial deposits diversifies revenue away from retail mortgages. Building treasury, digital and private banking capabilities should deepen client relationships, raise fee income, and reduce single-product sensitivity over time.

Strong cash generation

Consistent free cash flow near reported earnings demonstrates earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation supports dividends, buybacks and reinvestment in digital/treasury initiatives, improving capital allocation flexibility if the company sustains operating performance.

Revenue and margin recovery

A multi-year rebound in revenue and materially improved net margins indicates operational recovery and improved pricing or mix. If maintained, stronger margins enhance profitability resilience, fund strategic growth, and make recurring earnings less dependent on one-off items.

Negative Factors

Leveraged balance sheet

While leverage is improving, a still-elevated debt-to-equity profile limits capital flexibility and raises sensitivity to interest and credit shocks. For a regional bank, persistent leverage constrains the pace of asset growth and requires disciplined capital management to sustain payouts and build buffers.

Moderate returns on equity

A mid-single-digit ROE despite meaningful leverage points to limited profitability efficiency versus peers. Modest ROE constrains the company’s ability to meaningfully grow book value per share organically and may pressure the sustainability of high shareholder returns without further margin or efficiency gains.

Earnings volatility / cyclical sensitivity

The historical swing to a deep loss in 2023 highlights exposure to credit, interest-rate and portfolio mix cycles. Such volatility means recent improvements are not yet fully proven across a cycle; sustained credit discipline and margin stability will be required to lock in the recovery.

Capitol Federal Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. operates as the holding company for Capitol Federal Savings Bank that provides various retail banking products and services in the United States. The company accepts a range of deposit products, including savings accounts, money market deposit accounts, interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also provides various loan products, such as one- to four-family residential real estate loans, commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, and construction loans, as well as consumer loans, which include home equity, loans and lines of credit, home improvement loans, vehicle loans, and loans secured by saving deposits. In addition, the company offers mobile, telephone, and online banking services, as well as bill payment services; operates a call center; and invests in various securities. It operates a network of 54 branches, including 45 traditional branches and nine in-store branches located in nine counties throughout Kansas and two counties in Missouri. The company serves the metropolitan areas of Topeka, Wichita, Lawrence, Manhattan, Emporia, and Salina, Kansas, and a portion of the metropolitan area of greater Kansas City. Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Topeka, Kansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Capitol Federal Financial generates revenue primarily through interest income from its loan portfolio, which consists mainly of mortgage loans, commercial loans, and consumer loans. The interest earned on these loans is a significant source of revenue for the company. Additionally, CFFN earns income from fees associated with its banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. The company also benefits from net interest margin, which is the difference between the interest it earns on loans and the interest it pays on deposits. Furthermore, CFFN may engage in investment activities, contributing to its overall earnings. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations can enhance its market presence and customer base, further driving its revenue streams.

Capitol Federal Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a rebound with improving revenue and profitability versus 2023, and solid cash conversion (FCF ~94% of net income). However, the balance sheet remains meaningfully leveraged (though improving) and returns are only moderate (TTM ROE ~7%), with prior earnings volatility keeping the score mid-range.

Income Statement

Results show a clear earnings recovery after a sharp loss year in 2023. Revenue rebounded strongly from 2023 to 2024 and continued improving into 2025, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue modestly above the latest annual level. Profitability has also improved meaningfully: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin is solid (~17%) versus ~10% in 2024, though still below the much stronger 2021–2022 period. Key weakness is volatility—2023 margins were deeply negative, highlighting sensitivity in the business model and making the recent improvement less “proven” across a full cycle.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is adequate but leveraged, which is typical for banks yet still a constraint. Debt relative to equity has trended down from the 2023 peak (about 2.28x) to ~1.76x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), a positive direction. Equity has been fairly stable around ~$1.0–$1.2B and total assets are steady near ~$9.5–$10.2B, suggesting stability. The main weakness is moderate returns on equity (TTM ~7%), which are improved versus 2024 and far better than 2023, but not especially strong given the leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$66.9M) and free cash flow (~$62.8M) cover reported earnings reasonably well (free cash flow running at ~94% of net income), supporting earnings quality. Free cash flow growth is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus the latest annual period, indicating momentum. Weakness: cash flow has been somewhat uneven across years (e.g., weaker 2024 vs 2022), so the recent strength needs to persist to be considered fully durable.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	427.14M	417.40M	379.37M	185.64M	299.57M	278.75M
Gross Profit	207.48M	197.45M	163.33M	-27.71M	217.26M	204.08M
EBITDA	96.63M	90.74M	62.81M	-128.85M	117.94M	106.98M
Net Income	72.90M	68.03M	38.01M	-101.66M	84.45M	76.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.78B	9.78B	9.53B	10.18B	9.62B	9.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	1.12B	1.07B	1.63B	1.61B	2.06B
Total Debt	1.83B	1.97B	2.18B	2.38B	2.13B	1.58B
Total Liabilities	8.74B	8.73B	8.50B	9.13B	8.53B	8.39B
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	1.05B	1.03B	1.04B	1.10B	1.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	61.22M	49.84M	24.00M	41.25M	91.74M	65.06M
Operating Cash Flow	66.88M	55.04M	31.18M	47.53M	97.30M	74.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-160.19M	-206.59M	629.11M	-329.10M	-167.58M	-326.67M
Financing Cash Flow	155.62M	186.68M	-688.59M	477.98M	49.18M	82.78M

Capitol Federal Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFFN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.49, above the 50-day MA of 7.07, and above the 200-day MA of 6.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CFFN.

Capitol Federal Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMAL	79 Outperform	$1.15B	11.29	13.88%	1.70%	4.33%	-2.20%
HFWA	71 Outperform	$896.80M	13.47	6.43%	3.91%	8.27%	54.96%
CPF	68 Neutral	$854.46M	11.14	11.65%	3.39%	1.22%	15.97%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CFFN	65 Neutral	$932.28M	12.79	6.53%	4.73%	6.27%	79.25%
AMTB	56 Neutral	$881.02M	17.00	7.21%	1.79%	15.37%	―
HBNC	52 Neutral	$862.50M	-5.35	-26.60%	3.50%	-78.64%	-913.67%

Capitol Federal Financial Corporate Events

Capitol Federal Financial Holders Back Leadership and Incentive Plan

At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on January 27, 2026, Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. stockholders elected Michel’ Philipp Cole and Jeffrey M. Johnson to three-year terms as directors, while the terms of several incumbent directors continued. Investors also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as independent auditors for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, and they adopted the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan, signaling support for the company’s current leadership, governance framework, and long-term incentive structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (CFFN) stock is a Buy with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capitol Federal Financial stock, see the CFFN Stock Forecast page.

Capitol Federal Financial Reports Strong Quarterly Commercial Banking Growth

Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. reported preliminary results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, showing total assets of $9.78 billion, stockholders’ equity of $1.04 billion and net income of $20.3 million, up from $18.8 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share of $0.16. The bank improved its net interest margin to 2.19%, enhanced efficiency and operating expense ratios, and continued returning capital through dividends and the repurchase of roughly 2.38 million shares, even as equity declined due to these capital actions. The quarter underscored the company’s ongoing pivot toward full-service commercial banking, with commercial loans growing $162.6 million to $2.28 billion and commercial deposits rising $19.5 million to $527.7 million, as management redeployed funds from correspondent loan repayments and leveraged new treasury management, digital banking tools and relationship-driven commercial banking to deepen customer relationships. The bank is also building out private banking and wealth management for high-net-worth clients, and planning additional digital and treasury-management capabilities in 2026, moves aimed at diversifying funding sources, increasing noninterest income and supporting long-term shareholder value while maintaining disciplined credit and capital management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CFFN) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capitol Federal Financial stock, see the CFFN Stock Forecast page.

Capitol Federal to Webcast Annual Stockholder Meeting Presentation

On January 23, 2026, Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. announced that the presentation for its Annual Meeting of Stockholders would be made available on the company’s website at 10:00 a.m. Central Time on January 27, 2026, signaling an emphasis on accessible, web-based communication with shareholders regarding its governance and performance updates.

The most recent analyst rating on (CFFN) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capitol Federal Financial stock, see the CFFN Stock Forecast page.

Capitol Federal Financial Announces Special Cash Dividend

Capitol Federal Financial, a financial institution specializing in banking and related services, announced a special cash dividend and an update on its stock buyback program. The special dividend of $0.04 per share will be distributed on January 23, 2026, to stockholders of record as of January 9, 2026, highlighting returns to shareholders and strengthening investor relations in the banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (CFFN) stock is a Buy with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capitol Federal Financial stock, see the CFFN Stock Forecast page.