Certara, Inc. (CERT)
NASDAQ:CERT
Want to see CERT full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Certara
(NASDAQ:CERT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-19.61% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is held up by a conservative balance sheet and positive cash generation, plus a constructive (but cautious) management outlook supported by software bookings/retention. It is pulled down by very weak price momentum (clear downtrend with oversold indicators) and the lack of earnings-based valuation support due to ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Very low leverage and a ~ $1.0B equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This supports R&D, product investment, M&A optionality and buybacks while reducing refinancing and solvency risk through business cycles, allowing the company to execute strategic shifts without immediate liquidity pressure.
Negative Factors
Services revenue and bookings weakness
Sustained softness in services reduces revenue diversification and dampens near-term growth as Certara transitions its mix. Services are also a critical client touchpoint that feeds software adoption; persistent weakness could slow cross-sell, reduce backlog conversion and pressure overall top-line durability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet / low leverage
Very low leverage and a ~ $1.0B equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This supports R&D, product investment, M&A optionality and buybacks while reducing refinancing and solvency risk through business cycles, allowing the company to execute strategic shifts without immediate liquidity pressure.
Read all positive factors
Certara Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Analyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCertara (CERT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$709.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth6.40%
EPS Growth-477.58%
CountryUS
Employees1,487
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding155,564,600
10 Day Avg. Volume4,117,137
30 Day Avg. Volume3,332,165
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.22
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)3.37
P/FCF Ratio14.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.06Price Target Upside29.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$401.17M
Certara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimul...
How the Company Makes Money
Certara primarily makes money through two main revenue streams: (1) software revenue and (2) services revenue. Software revenue is generated by licensing subscriptions to its drug development and regulatory-focused software products (typically con...
Certara Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but constructive outlook: software performance, strong software bookings, high net retention, regulatory qualifications and strategic AI/partnership initiatives are clear positives that support longer-term growth potential. However, services softness, quarter-to-quarter execution issues, a GAAP net loss and declines in adjusted profitability and EPS are tangible near-term negatives. Management is pursuing structural changes (divestiture, reorg, AI platform and partnerships) to address execution gaps and to reposition the company for scaling, but these actions introduce short-term transition risk.Positive Updates
Software Revenue and Bookings Strength
Software revenue of $49.7M in Q1, up 7% year-over-year; software bookings $48.7M, up 20% YoY; trailing 12-month software bookings ~$192.3M, up ~8% YoY.
Negative Updates
Services Revenue and Bookings Weakness
Services revenue of $57.2M in Q1, down 4% YoY; services bookings $66.6M, down 14% YoY; management cited mixed services performance and softness in regulatory services.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Software Revenue and Bookings Strength
Software revenue of $49.7M in Q1, up 7% year-over-year; software bookings $48.7M, up 20% YoY; trailing 12-month software bookings ~$192.3M, up ~8% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Certara updated full‑year 2026 guidance to reported revenue of $395 million to $405 million (including ~$18 million related to the recently divested regulatory/medical‑writing business), which equates to ~0%–4% organic growth excluding the divestiture; management expects first‑half revenue growth nearer the low end of that 0%–4% range with the second half at or above the high end, and a roughly 50/50 software/services revenue mix going forward. They expect full‑year software growth to be at or above the high end of the 0%–4% range (with H1 closer to the midpoint and H2 above the high end) and services growth toward the low end of the 0%–4% range (H1 at/below the low end, improving to the high end in H2); the divested businesses contributed about $13 million in Q1 and ~ $5 million is expected in Q2. Full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin is forecast at 30%–32% (H1 modestly below the range, H2 nearer the high end), adjusted EPS $0.35–$0.41, fully diluted shares 157–159 million, and an effective tax rate of ~30%.Certara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 419.75M | 418.84M | 385.15M | 354.34M | 335.64M | 286.10M |
| Gross Profit | 243.94M | 257.71M | 230.63M | 213.31M | 203.07M | 174.49M |
| EBITDA | 108.22M | 83.91M | 72.37M | 23.84M | 89.00M | 58.58M |
| Net Income | -15.10M | -1.59M | -12.05M | -55.36M | 14.73M | -13.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.56B | 1.57B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 149.48M | 189.39M | 179.18M | 234.95M | 236.59M | 185.80M |
| Total Debt | 10.75M | 11.40M | 311.90M | 302.57M | 308.13M | 308.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 483.32M | 493.79M | 516.45M | 516.30M | 493.26M | 469.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.02B | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 88.88M | 94.56M | 78.84M | 80.98M | 91.11M | 51.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.67M | 96.33M | 80.47M | 82.75M | 92.54M | 60.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.56M | -26.56M | -112.37M | -79.55M | -27.84M | -269.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -93.73M | -63.99M | -21.01M | -9.45M | -7.36M | 123.39M |
Certara Technical Analysis
Negative
6.22
Price Trends
5.87
Negative
7.00
Negative
8.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
29.46
Positive
7.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CERT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.60, above the 50-day MA of 5.87, and below the 200-day MA of 8.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.46 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CERT.
Certara Risk Analysis
Certara disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Certara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Certara Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.97B | 33.30 | 1.64% | ― | 7.86% | -2.92% | |
57 Neutral | $709.37M | ― | -1.43% | ― | 6.40% | -477.58% | |
54 Neutral | $349.03M | -4.56 | -140.63% | ― | 20.85% | -18.60% | |
53 Neutral | $920.56M | ― | -30.85% | ― | 10.59% | 46.79% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $123.52M | -0.23 | -67.07% | ― | -3.89% | 63.03% | |
47 Neutral | $93.85M | ― | -99.78% | ― | -2.83% | -223.32% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CERT
Certara
4.67
-6.50
-58.19%
OMCL
Omnicell
44.72
17.38
63.57%
HCAT
Health Catalyst
1.29
-2.45
-65.51%
SDGR
Schrodinger
12.32
-8.19
-39.93%
SOPH
SOPHiA GENETICS
4.87
1.94
66.21%
DH
Definitive Healthcare Corp
0.86
-2.28
-72.64%
Certara Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Certara Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Certara, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where investors elected three Class III directors—Arjun Bedi, Stephen McLean and Jon Resnick—to serve on the board until the 2029 annual meeting and until their su...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Certara Divests Medical Writing Unit to Refocus Strategy
Neutral
May 11, 2026
Certara reported first‑quarter 2026 revenue of $106.9 million, up 1% year on year, with software revenue rising 7% to $49.7 million and services revenue falling 4% to $57.2 million, while higher operating expenses swung the company to a net ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Certara to Divest Regulatory and Medical Writing Business
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21–22, 2026, Certara entered a definitive agreement to sell its global Regulatory and Medical Writing business, including related subsidiaries and assets, to Veristat for up to $135 million in cash, comprising $100 million upfront a...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Certara Announces Upcoming Board and Audit Committee Change
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Certara, Inc. disclosed that board member Cynthia Collins plans to resign as a Class II director and member of the Audit Committee, effective May 14, 2026, coinciding with the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.