Certara, Inc. (CERT)
NASDAQ:CERT
Want to see CERT full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Certara
(NASDAQ:CERT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(4.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/22/26
The score is supported primarily by strong cash generation and a very conservative balance sheet, which reduce downside risk. It is held back by unstable profitability and weak valuation signals (highly negative P/E), while technicals point to only a modest rebound within a broader downtrend; guidance and the divestiture indicate a transition period with execution risk but potential longer-term focus benefits.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low net debt and a large equity base materially reduce refinancing and solvency risk, giving management flexibility to invest in product development, AI initiatives, buybacks or M&A during the 2026 transition year without impairing operations or liquidity.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability
Large swings in GAAP profitability reduce earnings predictability and complicate multi-year planning. Volatile margins limit the reliability of internal reinvestment and make long-term guidance more sensitive to execution, impacting capital allocation decisions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low net debt and a large equity base materially reduce refinancing and solvency risk, giving management flexibility to invest in product development, AI initiatives, buybacks or M&A during the 2026 transition year without impairing operations or liquidity.
Read all positive factors
Certara (CERT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$956.75M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth8.75%
EPS Growth86.34%
CountryUS
Employees1,487
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding153,325,070
10 Day Avg. Volume3,571,192
30 Day Avg. Volume4,176,468
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.22
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)3.37
P/FCF Ratio14.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.50Price Target Upside36.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$427.88M
Certara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimul...
How the Company Makes Money
Certara primarily makes money through two main revenue streams: (1) software revenue and (2) services revenue. Software revenue is generated by licensing subscriptions to its drug development and regulatory-focused software products (typically con...
Certara Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Analyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCertara Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: several strong full-year achievements (9% revenue growth, software growth, improved FY adjusted EBITDA, healthy bookings and software net retention), meaningful progress in MIDD adoption and clear strategic priorities under a new CEO. However, material near-term execution and profitability challenges were disclosed — notably weaker Q4 software bookings (-6%), a Q4 net loss, declining adjusted EPS, a softer services quarter, a strategic review (and uncertainty) around the regulatory writing business, and conservative 2026 guidance (flat to +4% revenue). Management emphasized operational fixes, AI/product investment and $10M of identified cost avoidance, but 2026 is framed as a transition year while those initiatives are implemented, leaving balanced upside and downside risks.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for FY2025 was $418.8M, up 9% year-over-year (8% constant currency), showing continued top-line expansion for the year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Software Bookings Decline
Software bookings in Q4 were $56.1M, down 6% year-over-year and below company expectations; management cited customer reorganizations, slower clinical trial completions and weaker pipeline conversion as drivers.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for FY2025 was $418.8M, up 9% year-over-year (8% constant currency), showing continued top-line expansion for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 total revenue to be flat to up 4% versus 2025 (FY2025 revenue $418.8M), with Q1 expected nearer the low end due to a tough comparison and revenue acceleration thereafter as execution improves; they identified roughly $10M of cost avoidance versus the initial 2026 plan. They expect adjusted EBITDA margin of 30–32% (lower in H1, improving in H2) and adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.48, assuming 160–162M fully diluted shares and an effective tax rate of ~30%. For context, 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $134.5M (32% margin), Certara ended the year with $189.4M cash, $295.5M of term‑loan borrowings and full revolver availability, and repurchased ~3.3M shares for $43M in 2025.Certara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 418.84M | 385.15M | 354.34M | 335.64M | 286.10M |
| Gross Profit | 257.71M | 230.63M | 213.31M | 203.07M | 174.49M |
| EBITDA | 83.91M | 72.37M | 23.84M | 89.00M | 58.58M |
| Net Income | -1.59M | -12.05M | -55.36M | 14.73M | -13.27M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.56B | 1.57B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.39M | 179.18M | 234.95M | 236.59M | 185.80M |
| Total Debt | 11.40M | 311.90M | 302.57M | 308.13M | 308.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 493.79M | 516.45M | 516.30M | 493.26M | 469.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.04B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 94.56M | 78.84M | 80.98M | 91.11M | 51.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.33M | 80.47M | 82.75M | 92.54M | 60.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.56M | -112.37M | -79.55M | -27.84M | -269.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -63.99M | -21.01M | -9.45M | -7.36M | 123.39M |
Certara Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.22
Price Trends
6.42
Negative
7.77
Negative
9.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
53.64
Neutral
89.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CERT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.83, below the 50-day MA of 6.42, and below the 200-day MA of 9.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CERT.
Certara Risk Analysis
Certara disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Certara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Certara Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.71B | 33.30 | 1.64% | ― | 6.53% | -83.28% | |
64 Neutral | $956.75M | -885.94 | -0.15% | ― | 8.75% | 86.34% | |
52 Neutral | $866.71M | 10.10 | -29.47% | ― | 23.29% | 45.23% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $348.31M | -3.99 | -116.98% | ― | 18.56% | -23.69% | |
46 Neutral | $100.81M | -0.94 | -54.67% | ― | 1.48% | -119.42% | |
46 Neutral | $144.24M | -2.20 | -47.69% | ― | -4.24% | 64.50% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CERT
Certara
5.90
-7.96
-57.43%
OMCL
Omnicell
43.10
11.84
37.88%
HCAT
Health Catalyst
1.27
-2.68
-67.85%
SDGR
Schrodinger
11.76
-13.87
-54.12%
SOPH
SOPHiA GENETICS
5.28
2.23
73.11%
DH
Definitive Healthcare Corp
0.93
-1.79
-65.66%
Certara Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Certara to Divest Regulatory and Medical Writing Business
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21–22, 2026, Certara entered a definitive agreement to sell its global Regulatory and Medical Writing business, including related subsidiaries and assets, to Veristat for up to $135 million in cash, comprising $100 million upfront a...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Certara Announces Upcoming Board and Audit Committee Change
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Certara, Inc. disclosed that board member Cynthia Collins plans to resign as a Class II director and member of the Audit Committee, effective May 14, 2026, coinciding with the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.