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Certara (CERT)
NASDAQ:CERT
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Certara (CERT) AI Stock Analysis

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CERT

Certara

(NASDAQ:CERT)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(5.80% Upside)
Certara's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting robust revenue growth and strategic advancements. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and technical indicators point to mixed momentum, balancing the score.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
There was strong 15% services bookings growth supported by uptake across all customer sizes.
Growth Potential
Increased adoption bolstered by new launches/version updates for high-value offerings could drive meaningful upside to CERT's valuation while offsetting any exposure to sector-wide spending uncertainties.
Regulatory Approval
Certara's PBPK modeling platform became the first and only software to receive European Medicines Agency qualification.
Negative Factors
End Market Weakness
End market weakness was evident in tier 2 software bookings and tier 1 services bookings performance in the quarter.
Market Demand Challenges
Demand trends for the company’s core biosimulation business remain challenged.

Certara (CERT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Certara Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCertara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia, and China. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyCertara primarily makes money through the sale of software licenses and the provision of consulting services. Its revenue model includes licensing fees for its biosimulation software platforms, which are utilized by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to predict drug behavior and efficacy. Additionally, Certara generates significant income from its consulting services, where it offers expert advice and strategic insights to optimize drug development pipelines. The company also engages in long-term contracts and partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms and regulatory bodies, further stabilizing and enhancing its revenue streams. Key revenue streams include software licensing, consultancy fees, and long-term strategic partnerships, which collectively contribute to Certara's financial performance.

Certara Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in terms of revenue and bookings growth, driven by software, especially Simcyp, and significant regulatory achievements. However, there were concerns about timing issues with Tier 1 software renewals and macroeconomic challenges impacting customer decision-making. Despite these issues, the company's strong execution and positive outlook contributed to an overall positive sentiment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Bookings Growth
Certara reported second quarter revenue of $104.6 million, representing 12% year-over-year growth. Second quarter bookings were $112 million, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase.
Software Revenue Growth
Software revenue reached $46.7 million, increasing 22% over the prior year period. Simcyp, in particular, showed strong growth.
Significant Regulatory Milestone for Simcyp
Certara Simcyp received European Medicines Agency (EMA) qualification for a PBPK Modeling Platform, becoming the only software with this designation.
Introduction of CertaraIQ
Certara announced the upcoming release of CertaraIQ, an AI-enabled QSP software solution, signifying a major step in growing the market for QSP solutions.
Positive Impact of QSP Collaboration
Certara's QSP collaboration with IGI resulted in a clinical starting dose that reduced the need for animal testing and received a Fast Track designation for a new treatment.
Negative Updates
Tier 1 Software Renewal Timing Issues
There was timing-related softness in Tier 1 software renewals, although this is expected to normalize in the second half of the year.
Macro and Geopolitical Challenges
Large pharma companies remain cautious due to a rapidly changing geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, affecting decision-making timelines.
Regulatory Business Review Delays
The strategic review of Certara's regulatory business has taken longer than expected, attributed to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Company Guidance
During Certara's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reiterated its full-year guidance based on strong financial performance and a robust sales funnel. Key metrics included a 12% year-over-year revenue growth to $104.6 million and a 13% increase in bookings to $112 million. Software revenue grew 22% to $46.7 million, with Simcyp and Chemaxon contributing significantly, while services revenue increased 5% to $57.9 million. The company highlighted strong demand in high-growth areas like QSP services and Simcyp software. Certara is on track with its strategic investments, including the development of an AI-enabled MIDD platform, and expects to launch CertaraIQ later this year. Despite macroeconomic challenges, the company remains confident in its growth trajectory, supported by ongoing interest in biosimulation technology and regulatory advancements such as the EMA qualification for Certara's Simcyp software. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $31.9 million, representing a 31% margin.

Certara Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Certara demonstrates strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, with a solid balance sheet characterized by low leverage. However, profitability remains a concern with negative net income impacting return on equity. Continued focus on improving margins and addressing profitability challenges could enhance financial health further.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company exhibits steady revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 2.43% compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin has remained strong at 56.9%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -0.66%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 3.35% and 7.48% respectively, showing improvement in operational efficiency compared to past negative EBIT figures.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Certara maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, indicating low leverage and financial risk. The equity ratio stands at 69.45%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the return on equity is negative at -0.24%, suggesting profitability issues that need addressing.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
The cash flow position is robust with a free cash flow of $89.45 million, showcasing a healthy cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 35.63, highlighting efficient cash conversion despite net losses. Free cash flow to net income ratio is substantial, demonstrating strong cash flow relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue405.75M385.15M354.34M335.64M286.10M243.53M
Gross Profit233.91M230.63M213.31M203.07M174.49M142.76M
EBITDA49.47M72.37M23.84M89.00M58.58M17.87M
Net Income7.98M-12.05M-55.36M14.73M-13.27M-49.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.54B1.58B1.56B1.57B1.51B1.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments162.27M179.18M234.95M236.59M185.80M271.38M
Total Debt307.86M311.90M302.57M308.11M303.02M299.37M
Total Liabilities472.87M516.45M516.30M493.26M469.88M447.27M
Stockholders Equity1.07B1.06B1.05B1.08B1.04B822.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow103.67M78.84M67.43M80.01M51.49M36.87M
Operating Cash Flow101.55M80.47M82.75M92.54M60.39M44.81M
Investing Cash Flow-115.41M-112.37M-79.55M-27.84M-269.92M-8.61M
Financing Cash Flow-51.60M-21.01M-9.45M-7.36M123.39M208.21M

Certara Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price10.87
Price Trends
50DMA
10.80
Positive
100DMA
11.46
Negative
200DMA
11.52
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Negative
RSI
51.83
Neutral
STOCH
30.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CERT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.65, above the 50-day MA of 10.80, and below the 200-day MA of 11.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CERT.

Certara Risk Analysis

Certara disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Certara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Certara Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$1.83B-15.97%16.29%66.01%
66
Neutral
$1.50B66.331.87%6.39%
65
Neutral
$1.75B220.040.76%11.61%
60
Neutral
$281.18M47.47-41.49%0.43%20.01%-750.59%
55
Neutral
$1.09B-13.38%-6.71%-71.40%
51
Neutral
$7.83B-0.18-40.10%2.29%21.46%-2.03%
50
Neutral
$1.45B-44.40%18.59%10.96%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CERT
Certara
10.87
-1.60
-12.83%
OMCL
Omnicell
33.23
-11.96
-26.47%
SLP
Simulations Plus
14.36
-21.73
-60.21%
EVH
Evolent Health
9.27
-21.58
-69.95%
PHR
Phreesia
31.99
7.17
28.89%
SDGR
Schrodinger
19.79
-0.67
-3.27%

Certara Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Certara Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on May 21
Neutral
May 22, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Certara, Inc. held its annual stockholders meeting, where several key proposals were voted on. The stockholders elected four Class II directors to the board, ratified the selection of RSM US LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis. These decisions are crucial for Certara’s governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 26, 2025