Certara (CERT)
NASDAQ:CERT
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Certara
(NASDAQ:CERT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(10.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is supported primarily by strong cash generation and a low-risk balance sheet, which reduce downside risk. Offsetting this are weak technical trends, a high P/E valuation, and mixed earnings-call signals including conservative 2026 growth guidance and disclosed execution challenges.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low net debt relative to a large equity base materially reduces solvency and refinancing risk. That balance-sheet flexibility supports multi-year R&D and M&A optionality, enables opportunistic buybacks or investments, and buffers the business through drug-development cycles.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent profitability
Earnings and margins have been uneven, with multiyear swings from profit to loss and only near breakeven recently. This volatility raises uncertainty about sustainable operating margins, limits capital allocation clarity and complicates planning for long‑term margin expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low net debt relative to a large equity base materially reduces solvency and refinancing risk. That balance-sheet flexibility supports multi-year R&D and M&A optionality, enables opportunistic buybacks or investments, and buffers the business through drug-development cycles.
Read all positive factors
Certara (CERT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$868.90M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth11.47%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,487
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding159,139,560
10 Day Avg. Volume5,642,567
30 Day Avg. Volume4,299,322
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.22
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)3.37
P/FCF Ratio14.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.00Price Target Upside66.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$427.88M
Certara Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimul...
How the Company Makes Money
Certara makes money primarily by selling its biosimulation software and by providing professional services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and other life sciences customers.
1) Software revenue (licenses/subscriptions and related support): Cert...
Certara Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Analyzes revenue streams from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCertara Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: several strong full-year achievements (9% revenue growth, software growth, improved FY adjusted EBITDA, healthy bookings and software net retention), meaningful progress in MIDD adoption and clear strategic priorities under a new CEO. However, material near-term execution and profitability challenges were disclosed — notably weaker Q4 software bookings (-6%), a Q4 net loss, declining adjusted EPS, a softer services quarter, a strategic review (and uncertainty) around the regulatory writing business, and conservative 2026 guidance (flat to +4% revenue). Management emphasized operational fixes, AI/product investment and $10M of identified cost avoidance, but 2026 is framed as a transition year while those initiatives are implemented, leaving balanced upside and downside risks.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for FY2025 was $418.8M, up 9% year-over-year (8% constant currency), showing continued top-line expansion for the year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Software Bookings Decline
Software bookings in Q4 were $56.1M, down 6% year-over-year and below company expectations; management cited customer reorganizations, slower clinical trial completions and weaker pipeline conversion as drivers.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue for FY2025 was $418.8M, up 9% year-over-year (8% constant currency), showing continued top-line expansion for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 total revenue to be flat to up 4% versus 2025 (FY2025 revenue $418.8M), with Q1 expected nearer the low end due to a tough comparison and revenue acceleration thereafter as execution improves; they identified roughly $10M of cost avoidance versus the initial 2026 plan. They expect adjusted EBITDA margin of 30–32% (lower in H1, improving in H2) and adjusted EPS of $0.44–$0.48, assuming 160–162M fully diluted shares and an effective tax rate of ~30%. For context, 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $134.5M (32% margin), Certara ended the year with $189.4M cash, $295.5M of term‑loan borrowings and full revolver availability, and repurchased ~3.3M shares for $43M in 2025.Certara Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 418.84M | 385.15M | 354.34M | 335.64M | 286.10M |
| Gross Profit | 257.71M | 230.63M | 213.31M | 203.07M | 174.49M |
| EBITDA | 83.91M | 72.37M | 23.84M | 89.00M | 58.58M |
| Net Income | -1.59M | -12.05M | -55.36M | 14.73M | -13.27M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.56B | 1.57B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 189.39M | 179.18M | 234.95M | 236.59M | 185.80M |
| Total Debt | 11.40M | 311.90M | 302.57M | 308.13M | 308.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 493.79M | 516.45M | 516.30M | 493.26M | 469.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.04B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 94.56M | 78.84M | 80.98M | 91.11M | 51.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.33M | 80.47M | 82.75M | 92.54M | 60.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.56M | -112.37M | -79.55M | -27.84M | -269.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -63.99M | -21.01M | -9.45M | -7.36M | 123.39M |
Certara Technical Analysis
Negative
5.41
Price Trends
7.00
Negative
8.00
Negative
9.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.44
Positive
25.70
Positive
14.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CERT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.22, below the 50-day MA of 7.00, and below the 200-day MA of 9.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.70 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CERT.
Certara Risk Analysis
Certara disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Certara reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Certara Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $868.90M | -885.94 | -0.15% | ― | 11.47% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $1.55B | -251.31 | 0.17% | ― | 10.67% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $850.47M | 10.10 | -29.47% | ― | 32.90% | 1.85% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $354.76M | -3.99 | -116.98% | ― | 13.66% | -2.65% | |
46 Neutral | $157.09M | -2.20 | -47.69% | ― | -5.30% | 46.01% | |
43 Neutral | $84.99M | -0.47 | -30.28% | ― | 4.64% | -17.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CERT
Certara
5.46
-3.91
-41.73%
OMCL
Omnicell
34.11
2.51
7.94%
HCAT
Health Catalyst
1.16
-2.84
-71.05%
SDGR
Schrodinger
11.52
-6.69
-36.74%
SOPH
SOPHiA GENETICS
4.95
2.26
84.01%
DH
Definitive Healthcare Corp
1.10
-1.41
-56.18%
Certara Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Certara Announces Upcoming Board and Audit Committee Change
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Certara, Inc. disclosed that board member Cynthia Collins plans to resign as a Class II director and member of the Audit Committee, effective May 14, 2026, coinciding with the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.