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Evolent Health (EVH)
NYSE:EVH

Evolent Health (EVH) AI Stock Analysis

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Evolent Health

(NYSE:EVH)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(9.89%Upside)
Evolent Health demonstrates robust revenue growth and strategic expansions, yet faces challenges in profitability and cash management. Technical indicators suggest bearish trends, and the negative P/E ratio reflects ongoing unprofitability. The positive earnings call provides some optimism but is countered by financial risks and valuation concerns.
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
The adjusted EPS for 2025 is modeled to be higher than the Street target, indicating confidence in better-than-expected earnings performance.
Profitability
The 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate for Evolent Health has been slightly increased to align with the guidance midpoint, suggesting an optimistic view on profitability.
Revenue Growth
Specialty Technology & Services revenue is projected to grow by 23% year-over-year in 2025.
Negative Factors
Cost Outlook
The business fell short of the target thresholds on both adjusted EBITDA metrics, reflecting a change in outlook on costs in the back half of the year.
P&L Impact
The moving pieces between the Performance Suite and Technology & Services Suite are impacting P&L.
Performance Suite Revenue
Performance Suite revenue is estimated to decrease by 32% year-over-year in 2025.

Evolent Health (EVH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Evolent Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvolent Health, Inc., a healthcare company, through its subsidiary, Evolent Health LLC, provides clinical and administrative solutions to payers and providers in the United States. It operates in two segments, Evolent Health Services and Clinical Solutions. The Evolent Health Services segment provides an integrated administrative and clinical platform for health plan administration and population health management. It offers financial and administrative management services, such as health plan services, risk management, analytics and reporting, and leadership and management; and Identifi, a proprietary technology system that aggregates and analyzes data, manages care workflows, and engages patients, population health performance that delivers patient-centric cost-effective care. The Clinical Solutions segment offers specialty care management services support a range of specialty care delivery stakeholders during their transition from fee-for-service to value-based care, independent of their stage of maturation and specific market dynamics in oncology and cardiology; and holistic total cost of care improvement. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvolent Health makes money through a variety of revenue streams centered around its healthcare services and solutions. The company generates revenue by partnering with healthcare providers and payers to implement value-based care models, which often involve long-term contracts and shared savings arrangements. Evolent offers services such as population health management, risk adjustment, and specialty care management, which are typically sold on a subscription basis or through performance-based agreements. Additionally, Evolent may earn fees from consulting services and the implementation of its technology platforms aimed at improving clinical outcomes and reducing costs. Key partnerships with healthcare organizations and insurers play a significant role in its earnings, as they expand Evolent's reach and capability to deliver comprehensive value-based care solutions.

Evolent Health Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -24.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Evolent Health, Inc. reported a strong start to 2025 with significant organic growth and expansion in oncology and technology solutions. The launch of the oncology navigation solution and high employee engagement are notable achievements. However, revenue was impacted by contractual changes and the closure of oncology practices, necessitating caution in revenue and cost projections.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025
Evolent Health, Inc. reported Q1 financial results at the high end of expectations with a favorable outlook for the rest of the year.
Organic Growth and New Revenue Agreements
The company secured five new revenue agreements covering major condition areas, expected to bring approximately $10 million in annualized specialty technology and services revenue and adding about 1 million new lives on the platform.
Expansion in Oncology and Technology
Evolent Health expanded its oncology and technology services, including adding 800,000 Medicare Advantage lives and 100,000 lives in Medicaid, with significant investments in AI-led automation.
Launch of Oncology Navigation Solution
The official launch of the oncology navigation solution, integrating digital navigation and practice alignment, is expected to enhance oncology management capabilities.
Employee Engagement
Evolent Health, Inc. reported an employee engagement rate of 89%, one of the highest in its history.
Negative Updates
Revenue Impact from Contractual Changes
Q1 revenue was impacted by contractual changes, resulting in a revenue of $483.6 million instead of the expected $450 million. Changes in capitation rates and true-ups resulted in a $33 million reduction in 2025 revenue estimates.
Oncology Cost Trends
Despite favorable Q1 trends, the company continues to guide based on a 12% oncology trend for the remainder of the year, indicating caution in changing assumptions with ongoing uncertainties.
Closure of Oncology Practices
The decision to close oncology practices to avoid channel conflicts and future capital investments resulted in a one-time loss on the income statement.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Evolent Health, Inc. reported strong financial results with revenue reaching $483.6 million, exceeding initial expectations. The company secured five new revenue agreements, expanding its platform by approximately 1 million lives and projecting an annualized revenue increase of $10 million. Evolent's oncology management solutions saw significant growth, and they announced the launch of a comprehensive oncology navigation solution, expected to be live across 300,000 members by May 2025. The performance suite pipeline is the largest in the company's history, driven by innovative contract structures and AI-led automation efforts. Despite challenges, Evolent remains confident in meeting or exceeding long-term growth targets, maintaining a positive outlook for cash flow and profitability throughout 2025.

Evolent Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Evolent Health is experiencing significant revenue growth, with challenges in profitability due to negative EBIT and net income margins. Improvements in the debt-to-equity ratio and positive operating cash flow indicate a stronger financial position, but ongoing cash utilization issues and negative free cash flow highlight the need for better capital management.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Evolent Health has experienced consistent revenue growth, with a notable increase of 30% from 2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. Despite the growing revenue, the net profit margin remains negative, which poses a challenge for future profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The debt-to-equity ratio has improved over time, falling from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.22 in 2024, indicating a stronger equity position. However, the company has negative net income, impacting the return on equity. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. Continued focus on reducing liabilities relative to equity is necessary.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024, but free cash flow remains negative due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has improved, indicating better cash management despite persistent net losses. Free cash flow to net income remains challenging, reflecting ongoing cash utilization issues.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.55B1.96B1.35B907.96M1.02B
Gross Profit
367.35M460.47M316.58M250.41M321.06M
EBIT
-40.48M-71.21M-59.84M30.25M-37.88M
EBITDA
84.85M-24.79M43.75M55.66M-241.38M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-61.62M-113.04M-18.70M-30.28M-334.25M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
163.50M192.82M188.20M266.28M340.49M
Total Assets
2.54B2.68B1.82B1.42B1.37B
Total Debt
713.67M644.80M476.12M280.47M359.78M
Net Debt
609.47M451.97M287.92M14.19M19.29M
Total Liabilities
1.54B1.61B957.88M725.83M750.59M
Stockholders Equity
1.00B1.07B859.42M693.63M619.60M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-6.13M113.84M-49.91M13.76M-45.70M
Operating Cash Flow
18.77M142.58M-11.55M38.75M-16.23M
Investing Cash Flow
-62.93M-415.54M-259.12M-15.79M261.07M
Financing Cash Flow
-565.00K281.34M131.54M-29.55M-11.86M

Evolent Health Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.19
Price Trends
50DMA
9.14
Negative
100DMA
9.52
Negative
200DMA
15.28
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.41
Negative
RSI
46.11
Neutral
STOCH
75.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.38, below the 50-day MA of 9.14, and below the 200-day MA of 15.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EVH.

Evolent Health Risk Analysis

Evolent Health disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evolent Health reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Restrictive covenants in our Credit Agreement and in the Investors Rights Agreement may interfere with our ability to access the revolving credit facility under the Credit Agreement, or to obtain new financing or to engage in other business activities. Q4, 2024
2.
We face risks associated with our use of artificial intelligence and machine learning models. Q4, 2024
3.
Failure by our customers to provide us with accurate and timely information could impact our profitability. Q4, 2024

Evolent Health Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$1.94B-0.25%9.37%95.72%
67
Neutral
$1.45B68.861.73%3.00%
PHPHR
58
Neutral
$1.53B-15.97%16.29%66.01%
58
Neutral
$575.59M-48.23%14.99%-35.83%
EVEVH
54
Neutral
$1.00B-10.99%10.24%2.63%
54
Neutral
$5.28B3.29-45.38%2.80%16.77%-0.08%
48
Neutral
$1.25B-54.49%-2.54%-322.03%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EVH
Evolent Health
8.19
-15.16
-64.93%
OMCL
Omnicell
30.87
0.93
3.11%
TDOC
Teladoc
6.93
-4.10
-37.17%
PHR
Phreesia
25.78
6.03
30.53%
ACCD
Accolade
7.02
0.14
2.03%
CERT
Certara
11.70
-5.49
-31.94%

Evolent Health Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Evolent Health Restructures Board Committees in June 2025
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Evolent Health‘s Board of Directors restructured its committees, appointing Brendan Springstubb to both the Audit and Compensation Committees, as part of a cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital. During the 2025 Annual Meeting, stockholders elected ten directors, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the accounting firm, approved executive compensation for 2024, and amended the 2015 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVH) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolent Health stock, see the EVH Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Evolent Health Reaffirms 2025 Revenue and EBITDA Guidance
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Evolent Health‘s management will present at the William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference, reaffirming its 2025 revenue guidance of $2.06 billion to $2.11 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $135.0 million to $165.0 million. The company also expects to reaffirm its second quarter 2025 revenue guidance of $440.0 million to $470.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $33.0 million to $40.0 million, consistent with previous guidance. Evolent Health highlights the challenges in reconciling non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA to net income due to various adjustments related to non-core operations and other factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVH) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolent Health stock, see the EVH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Evolent Health Nominates Shawn Guertin to Board
Neutral
Apr 22, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Diane Holder announced she would not seek re-election to Evolent Health‘s Board of Directors at the upcoming annual meeting on June 5, 2025. Her decision was not due to any disagreement with the company. In response, the Board has nominated Shawn Guertin, a seasoned executive with extensive experience in the healthcare industry, to stand for election. Guertin’s nomination aligns with Evolent’s ongoing efforts to refresh its board with independent directors, aiming to enhance corporate governance and drive shareholder value.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.