Evolent Health (EVH)
NYSE:EVH
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Evolent Health
(NYSE:EVH)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(2.46% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses and volatile cash flow) and a bearish technical setup with negative momentum and the stock trading well below key moving averages. This is partially offset by improved leverage on the balance sheet and a more constructive forward outlook from management’s 2026 growth and EBITDA guidance, though near-term cash flow and execution risks remain elevated.
Positive Factors
Improved Balance Sheet
Material deleveraging significantly reduces solvency and refinancing risk, giving management runway to execute growth initiatives and absorb implementation costs for new contracts. Low debt and positive equity support investments in technology and contract onboarding without immediate liquidity stress.
Negative Factors
Persistent Losses & Margin Collapse
Ongoing GAAP losses and sharply negative margins signal structural profitability challenges. Until the company sustainably converts higher revenue into positive operating margins, returns on invested capital will remain weak and investor capital risks erode the firm's ability to fund growth without continued cost control or cash infusions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Balance Sheet
Material deleveraging significantly reduces solvency and refinancing risk, giving management runway to execute growth initiatives and absorb implementation costs for new contracts. Low debt and positive equity support investments in technology and contract onboarding without immediate liquidity stress.
Read all positive factors
Evolent Health (EVH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$272.40M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth-16.65%
EPS Growth-71.92%
CountryUS
Employees4,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Information Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding111,638,336
10 Day Avg. Volume2,959,312
30 Day Avg. Volume3,454,895
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio96.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.14Price Target Upside110.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.49B
Evolent Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolent Health, Inc., a healthcare company, through its subsidiary, Evolent Health LLC, provides clinical and administrative solutions to payers and providers in the United States. It operates in two segments, Evolent Health Services and Clinical ...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolent primarily makes money by selling services (often enabled by its technology platforms) to health plans and other organizations that administer or bear risk for healthcare costs. Its revenue model is largely based on fees paid by customers f...
Evolent Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but constructive picture: strong top-line growth prospects (mid-2026 revenue growth target ~30%), large new Performance Suite contracts (including a significant Highmark engagement), solid 2025 MER improvement and realized cost/AI savings support long-term margin tailwinds. However, near-term headwinds are meaningful — conservative reserving for new launches (new cohort at ~103% MER), a $40M exchange-related revenue/EBITDA hit from regulatory/market shifts, administrative churn and limited free cash flow in 2026. Management emphasized that 2026 adjusted EBITDA will be back-end weighted and articulated a clear path to improved margins and cash flow as contracts mature, supporting a balanced long-term outlook despite near-term pressure.Positive Updates
Q4 2025 Revenue and EBITDA Beat
Q4 revenue of $469 million and adjusted EBITDA of $37.8 million, which exceeded the midpoint of guidance.
Negative Updates
One Big Beautiful Bill — Exchange Membership Contraction
The One Big Beautiful Bill eliminated approximately $40 million of contribution related to exchange membership disenrollment and plan closures; some customers saw exchange membership declines of up to ~60% and ~40% for another large book, materially impacting revenue and mix.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 2025 Revenue and EBITDA Beat
Q4 revenue of $469 million and adjusted EBITDA of $37.8 million, which exceeded the midpoint of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 revenue of $2.4–$2.6 billion (midpoint $2.5B, ~30% growth) with adjusted EBITDA of $110–$140 million (midpoint $125M), noting Q4 2026 run-rate EBITDA north of $150M and that ~70% of 2026 EBITDA will be weighted to H2; Performance Suite launches are expected to generate roughly $900M of 2026 revenue (≈37% of the year, up from a prior $550M estimate) and Performance Suite revenue exiting 2026 is forecasted at about $2.2B annualized. Key margin and cost metrics: 2025 MER was 89% (ex‑ECP) with Q4 MER at 95% (ex‑ECP), 2026 MER is guided to ~93% at the midpoint while new cohort MER is modeled at 103%; the long‑term Performance Suite target margin range is 7%–10% (vs ~15% under the old model), which on $2.2B could translate to $160–$220M of total margin (a $30–$100M upside versus the $125M midpoint). The company expects a $40M one‑time hit from exchange membership contraction (the “One Big Beautiful Bill”), is targeting ~$90M of cost reductions versus 2025 (≈$40M from the ECP divestiture plus ~$50M from efficiency measures, including prior $20M AI/automation savings), projects ~ $1.7B medical claims expense at a 93% MER and ~$675M non‑claims expense at the midpoint, anticipates $10–$20M of operating cash flow after ~$60M of cash interest, and plans $25–$30M of CapEx/software spend; year‑end cash was $152M and net debt was $782M.Evolent Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.88B | 2.55B | 1.96B | 1.35B | 907.96M |
| Gross Profit | 283.03M | 367.35M | 460.47M | 316.58M | 250.41M |
| EBITDA | -361.31M | 84.85M | -24.79M | 43.75M | 55.66M |
| Net Income | -534.51M | -61.62M | -113.04M | -19.16M | -37.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.90B | 2.54B | 2.68B | 1.82B | 1.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 151.86M | 163.50M | 192.82M | 188.20M | 266.28M |
| Total Debt | 989.70M | 713.67M | 644.80M | 476.12M | 280.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.48B | 1.54B | 1.61B | 957.88M | 725.83M |
| Stockholders Equity | 415.19M | 1.00B | 1.07B | 859.42M | 693.63M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.75M | -6.13M | 113.84M | -49.91M | 13.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 38.84M | 18.77M | 142.58M | -11.55M | 38.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -233.00K | -62.93M | -415.54M | -259.12M | -15.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.92M | -565.00K | 281.34M | 131.54M | -29.55M |
Evolent Health Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.44
Price Trends
2.84
Negative
3.43
Negative
6.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
47.52
Neutral
67.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.54, below the 50-day MA of 2.84, and below the 200-day MA of 6.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EVH.
Evolent Health Risk Analysis
Evolent Health disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evolent Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Evolent Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $584.48M | 37.76 | 5.18% | 0.52% | 3.68% | 5.62% | |
67 Neutral | $705.93M | -72.16 | -7.10% | ― | 50.51% | 50.92% | |
56 Neutral | $491.57M | -39.74 | -6.52% | ― | 14.33% | 93.62% | |
52 Neutral | $936.58M | -6.16 | -14.24% | ― | -2.37% | 77.85% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $138.60M | -2.20 | -47.69% | ― | -5.30% | 46.01% | |
45 Neutral | $272.40M | -0.85 | -69.22% | ― | -16.65% | -71.92% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
EVH
Evolent Health
2.44
-7.45
-75.33%
HSTM
HealthStream
19.91
-11.27
-36.14%
TDOC
Teladoc
5.25
-1.99
-27.49%
PHR
Phreesia
8.09
-15.91
-66.29%
DH
Definitive Healthcare Corp
0.97
-1.51
-60.89%
OMDA
Omada Health, Inc.
11.98
-10.62
-46.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.