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Evolent Health (EVH)
NYSE:EVH

Evolent Health (EVH) AI Stock Analysis

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Evolent Health

(NYSE:EVH)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(6.02%Upside)
Evolent Health's overall score reflects strong technical momentum and positive corporate events, offset by financial performance challenges and valuation concerns. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, but ongoing profitability issues and high leverage remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Evolent Health reported solid first-quarter results, with revenue coming in nicely above consensus.
Financial Projections
The company has reaffirmed its annual and 2Q guidance, showing confidence in its financial projections and management.
Revenue Growth
Evolent announced five new revenue agreements, indicating that underlying growth momentum is on track.
Negative Factors
Performance Suite
Performance Suite revenue is estimated to decrease by 32% year-over-year in 2025.
Profitability Impact
The moving pieces between the Performance Suite and Technology & Services Suite are impacting P&L.

Evolent Health (EVH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Evolent Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvolent Health (EVH) is a healthcare services company that partners with healthcare providers and payers to drive value-based care transformation. Evolent focuses on helping its clients improve clinical and financial outcomes through its innovative solutions, including population health management, risk adjustment, and value-based specialty care. The company operates primarily in the United States, serving a wide range of healthcare organizations by providing technology-enabled services and integrated solutions to enhance patient care and optimize operational efficiency.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvolent Health makes money through a variety of revenue streams centered around its healthcare services and solutions. The company generates revenue by partnering with healthcare providers and payers to implement value-based care models, which often involve long-term contracts and shared savings arrangements. Evolent offers services such as population health management, risk adjustment, and specialty care management, which are typically sold on a subscription basis or through performance-based agreements. Additionally, Evolent may earn fees from consulting services and the implementation of its technology platforms aimed at improving clinical outcomes and reducing costs. Key partnerships with healthcare organizations and insurers play a significant role in its earnings, as they expand Evolent's reach and capability to deliver comprehensive value-based care solutions.

Evolent Health Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 9.37%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Evolent Health, Inc. reported a strong start to 2025 with significant organic growth and expansion in oncology and technology solutions. The launch of the oncology navigation solution and high employee engagement are notable achievements. However, revenue was impacted by contractual changes and the closure of oncology practices, necessitating caution in revenue and cost projections.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025
Evolent Health, Inc. reported Q1 financial results at the high end of expectations with a favorable outlook for the rest of the year.
Organic Growth and New Revenue Agreements
The company secured five new revenue agreements covering major condition areas, expected to bring approximately $10 million in annualized specialty technology and services revenue and adding about 1 million new lives on the platform.
Expansion in Oncology and Technology
Evolent Health expanded its oncology and technology services, including adding 800,000 Medicare Advantage lives and 100,000 lives in Medicaid, with significant investments in AI-led automation.
Launch of Oncology Navigation Solution
The official launch of the oncology navigation solution, integrating digital navigation and practice alignment, is expected to enhance oncology management capabilities.
Employee Engagement
Evolent Health, Inc. reported an employee engagement rate of 89%, one of the highest in its history.
Negative Updates
Revenue Impact from Contractual Changes
Q1 revenue was impacted by contractual changes, resulting in a revenue of $483.6 million instead of the expected $450 million. Changes in capitation rates and true-ups resulted in a $33 million reduction in 2025 revenue estimates.
Oncology Cost Trends
Despite favorable Q1 trends, the company continues to guide based on a 12% oncology trend for the remainder of the year, indicating caution in changing assumptions with ongoing uncertainties.
Closure of Oncology Practices
The decision to close oncology practices to avoid channel conflicts and future capital investments resulted in a one-time loss on the income statement.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Evolent Health, Inc. reported strong financial results with revenue reaching $483.6 million, exceeding initial expectations. The company secured five new revenue agreements, expanding its platform by approximately 1 million lives and projecting an annualized revenue increase of $10 million. Evolent's oncology management solutions saw significant growth, and they announced the launch of a comprehensive oncology navigation solution, expected to be live across 300,000 members by May 2025. The performance suite pipeline is the largest in the company's history, driven by innovative contract structures and AI-led automation efforts. Despite challenges, Evolent remains confident in meeting or exceeding long-term growth targets, maintaining a positive outlook for cash flow and profitability throughout 2025.

Evolent Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Evolent Health shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash management. High leverage and negative net income pose financial risks. While EBITDA and operating cash flow improvements are positive, they are overshadowed by persistent losses and free cash flow challenges.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Evolent Health's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue shows moderate growth with a notable increase from $1.96 billion to $2.39 billion. However, gross profit margin has decreased, indicating rising costs. The company continues to operate at a net loss, with negative EBIT and net profit margins, which are risks to profitability. EBITDA has turned positive but remains low relative to total revenue.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating leverage risk, but equity levels are stable. Return on Equity (ROE) is negative due to the net loss, impacting investor returns. The equity ratio is reasonable, showing a balanced asset structure despite increased liabilities.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Operating cash flow remains positive, but free cash flow is negative, reflecting high capital expenditures and potential cash management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, showing inefficiencies in converting revenue into free cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.40B2.55B1.96B1.35B907.96M1.02B
Gross Profit335.55M367.35M460.47M316.58M250.41M321.06M
EBITDA36.98M84.85M-24.79M43.75M55.66M-241.38M
Net Income-108.96M-61.62M-113.04M-18.70M-30.28M-334.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.65B2.54B2.68B1.82B1.42B1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments246.55M163.50M192.82M188.20M266.28M340.49M
Total Debt870.10M713.67M644.80M476.12M280.47M359.78M
Total Liabilities1.72B1.54B1.61B957.88M725.83M750.59M
Stockholders Equity935.52M1.00B1.07B859.42M693.63M619.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-9.72M-6.13M113.84M-49.91M13.76M-45.70M
Operating Cash Flow18.42M18.77M142.58M-11.55M38.75M-16.23M
Investing Cash Flow-66.29M-62.93M-415.54M-259.12M-15.79M261.07M
Financing Cash Flow92.41M-565.00K281.34M131.54M-29.55M-11.86M

Evolent Health Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price11.79
Price Trends
50DMA
9.23
Positive
100DMA
9.42
Positive
200DMA
13.31
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.82
Negative
RSI
77.22
Negative
STOCH
97.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.70, above the 50-day MA of 9.23, and below the 200-day MA of 13.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.22 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EVH.

Evolent Health Risk Analysis

Evolent Health disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evolent Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Evolent Health Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PHPHR
71
Outperform
$1.73B-15.97%16.29%66.01%
71
Outperform
$1.84B-0.25%9.37%95.72%
67
Neutral
$1.40B65.671.73%3.00%
EVEVH
64
Neutral
$1.38B-10.99%10.24%2.63%
54
Neutral
$1.45B-54.49%-2.54%-322.03%
52
Neutral
$7.50B0.31-61.87%2.27%17.10%1.59%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EVH
Evolent Health
11.79
-7.79
-39.79%
OMCL
Omnicell
29.84
3.55
13.50%
TDOC
Teladoc
8.29
-0.97
-10.48%
PHR
Phreesia
28.99
8.79
43.51%
CERT
Certara
11.33
-2.97
-20.77%

Evolent Health Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Evolent Health Amends Credit Agreement for Flexibility
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

On June 19, 2025, Evolent Health, Inc. announced an amendment to its Credit Agreement to provide additional financial flexibility and secured a Commitment Letter with Ares Management Credit funds for non-dilutive debt capital to retire its 2025 Convertible Notes. The company reaffirmed its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025, citing lower-than-expected oncology costs and an accelerated forecast for new revenue bookings in 2026, which will be supported by the additional capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVH) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolent Health stock, see the EVH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Evolent Health Restructures Board Committees in June 2025
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Evolent Health‘s Board of Directors restructured its committees, appointing Brendan Springstubb to both the Audit and Compensation Committees, as part of a cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital. During the 2025 Annual Meeting, stockholders elected ten directors, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the accounting firm, approved executive compensation for 2024, and amended the 2015 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVH) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolent Health stock, see the EVH Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Evolent Health Reaffirms 2025 Revenue and EBITDA Guidance
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Evolent Health‘s management will present at the William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference, reaffirming its 2025 revenue guidance of $2.06 billion to $2.11 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $135.0 million to $165.0 million. The company also expects to reaffirm its second quarter 2025 revenue guidance of $440.0 million to $470.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $33.0 million to $40.0 million, consistent with previous guidance. Evolent Health highlights the challenges in reconciling non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA to net income due to various adjustments related to non-core operations and other factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVH) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolent Health stock, see the EVH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Evolent Health Nominates Shawn Guertin to Board
Neutral
Apr 22, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Diane Holder announced she would not seek re-election to Evolent Health‘s Board of Directors at the upcoming annual meeting on June 5, 2025. Her decision was not due to any disagreement with the company. In response, the Board has nominated Shawn Guertin, a seasoned executive with extensive experience in the healthcare industry, to stand for election. Guertin’s nomination aligns with Evolent’s ongoing efforts to refresh its board with independent directors, aiming to enhance corporate governance and drive shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025