Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
CaixaBank SA (CAIXY)
OTHER OTC:CAIXY
Top Page
CaixaBank SA
(OTC:CAIXY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$5.00
â–²(44.51% Upside)
CaixaBank's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The technical analysis suggests a strong upward trend, though caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. The valuation is reasonable, with an attractive dividend yield supporting the overall positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Customer & balance growth
Sustained 7% loan and deposit growth plus ~400k net new clients expands low‑cost funding and the cross‑sell opportunity set. Durable volume expansion supports net interest income stability, lowers funding stress, and creates a broader base for fee generation over the medium term.
Improved cash generation
Marked free cash flow improvement enhances liquidity and financial flexibility, enabling sustainable dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment without relying on volatile market funding. Strong cash conversion also provides a buffer for provisioning cycles and strategic investments over 2–6 months.
Capital strength & shareholder returns
A CET1 ratio comfortably above targets combined with a €500m buyback and a high‑range interim dividend signals robust capital management. This structural strength supports regulatory resilience, preserves lending capacity, and underpins the bank's ability to return capital while funding strategic growth.
Negative Factors
Reported revenue decline
A negative reported revenue growth metric implies potential structural headwinds in top‑line trends. Persisting revenue contraction pressures margins and free cash flow generation, limiting reinvestment capacity and the bank's ability to expand provision buffers or sustain elevated shareholder returns over the medium term.
Mortgage market share pressure
Losses in mortgage share amid aggressive pricing suggest durable competitive pressure in a high‑margin lending segment. Continued share erosion can compress loan yields and reduce cross‑sell economics in retail banking, weakening long‑term net interest income and profitability per customer.
Operational risk may increase RWAs
Anticipated operational‑risk driven RWA increases would reduce capital ratios or force precautionary capital build. Higher RWAs constrain lending capacity and capital returns, complicating long‑term planning and potentially forcing either earnings retention or slower balance sheet growth to preserve regulatory buffers.
CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$94.38B
Dividend Yield3.61%
Average Volume (3M)53.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth-5.82%
EPS Growth14.88%
CountryUS
Employees46,254
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding21,073,773,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume53,877
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio2.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
CaixaBank SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaixaBank SA is a leading financial institution based in Spain, primarily focused on retail banking, corporate banking, and investment services. As one of the largest banks in the Iberian Peninsula, CaixaBank offers a wide range of financial products and services, including loans, mortgages, savings accounts, insurance, and asset management. The company is committed to innovation and digital transformation, aiming to enhance customer experience through advanced technological solutions. It operates a vast network of branches and ATMs, serving millions of clients across various segments.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaixaBank generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is net interest income, which comes from the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. The bank also earns significant income from fees and commissions associated with its various services, including account management, transaction processing, and financial advisory services. Additionally, CaixaBank generates revenue through its investment banking operations, which include underwriting and advisory fees. The bank has formed strategic partnerships with fintech companies to enhance its digital offerings, further contributing to its earnings. Other important factors include its focus on cost efficiency and risk management, which help maintain profitability in a competitive landscape.
CaixaBank SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: CaixaBank reported a strong year with balanced volume growth (~7% lending and funds), improved asset quality (NPLs down, cost of risk 22 bps), robust fee engines (wealth/protection) and solid capital (CET1 12.56%) enabling higher shareholder returns (DPS +15%, ongoing buyback). Near-term headwinds include a FY NII decline (–3.9%) that is recovering Q/Q, a subdued recurring banking-fee base, elevated transformation-related costs before efficiency gains arrive, and continued dependence on the rate environment and hedging dynamics for 2027 NII targets. Overall, the positive operational momentum, capital strength and asset-quality improvement materially outweigh the manageable challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong full-year profitability
Net income EUR 5.9bn, up 1.8% year-on-year; Return on tangible equity 17.5% (upper end of guidance); EPS +5%; book value per share and dividends growth ~16%.
Robust volume growth and market share gains
Performing lending grew ~7% (mortgages +6.5%, consumer +12.4%, business +7.6%); customer funds up ~6.8%; client base +390,000; client penetration 40.4%; market share increases across lending and deposits (around +10–14 bps).
Recurring revenues and wealth management strength
Revenue from services +5.4% year-on-year; wealth management net inflows ~40%; AUM at year-end ~7% above average 2025 balances; protection insurance +13% and non-life +11.7% driving fee growth.
Improving asset quality
NPL ratio down to 2.07% (–20 bps Q/Q); coverage ratio 77%; cost of risk 22 bps (below guided <25 bps); EUR 311m of unassigned collective provisions retained for protection.
Capital position and shareholder returns
CET1 12.56% (above 12.25% threshold), capital accretion +63 bps; dividend per share +15% to EUR 0.50; ongoing share buyback program (seventh buyback, EUR 0.5bn deployed so far); payout policy maintained at 50–60%.
Strong liquidity and funding metrics
LCR >200%, NSFR ~150%, loan-to-deposit ~87%; non–interest-bearing deposits increased by ~EUR 17bn during the year; deposit costs down ~10 bps Q/Q to ~47 bps (ex-hedges).
Transformation and digital traction
New app #1 rated in Spain; Imagin and onboarding digital sales accelerating (cashback launched Nov with 1.3m clients); Facilitea portal 1.6m visits; vehicle financing +30%; hired ~650 IT professionals; AI rollout (Copilot) with use cases (e.g., ~75% reduction in client interview prep time).
Portugal business outperformance
Portugal (BPI) net income EUR 473m; business volume +7.5%; profitability 19.2%; efficiency improved to ~42%; asset quality NPL ~1.5% with strong coverage.
Negative Updates
Net interest income headwinds in 2025
NII down 3.9% for FY 2025 (in line with guidance) despite Q4 recovery (+1.5% Q/Q); customer spread around 297–302 bps with loan yields continuing to moderate (loan yield –6 bps Q/Q).
Fee mix challenges and SRT fee drag
Recurring banking fees subdued (+0.6% full year); SRT-related fees/expenses impacted banking fee line by ~EUR 36m in 2025 (EUR 12m in Q4), creating pressure on fee growth.
Near-term cost and investment pressure
Operating expenses up 5.0% in 2025 (in line with guidance) as digital/transformation hiring and projects ramp up; guidance assumes continued cost increases (c. 4–4.5% in 2026) before productivity gains materialize.
Interest-rate sensitivity and hedging complexity
Target interest-rate sensitivity maintained at ~7.5% (up from ~5% earlier), reflecting continued exposure; heavy use of structural hedges (hedges increased by ~EUR 10bn Q/Q to ~EUR 68.4bn) and maturing hedges/ALCO rollovers create path-dependent NII outcomes.
Deposit mix below earlier plan assumptions
Average share of interest-bearing deposits stabilized around ~27% (below prior ~30% assumption), which affects NII dynamics and reliance on noninterest-bearing balances and hedges.
Tax levy slightly above guidance
Banking tax levy recorded EUR 611m for the year, modestly above the initial EUR 600m guidance (driven by stronger NII and fees).
NPL target still to be met
Strategic target revised to <1.75% NPL by 2027, but reported NPL at 2.07% (improved materially yet not yet at the revised target).
NII and guidance remain rate-dependent
2027 NII target of EUR 12.5bn depends on rate environment, hedge rollovers and ALCO reinvestment; management noted possible seasonal Q1 NII dip and that NII upside is contingent on gradual rate increases and hedge maturities.
Company Guidance
Management upgraded its multi‑year ambition while keeping 2026 guidance consistent with the move to 2027: target RoTE ~20% in 2027 (average >18% over the plan; ~18% in 2026) with NII reference of EUR 12.5bn for 2027 (above EUR 11bn in 2026) and revenue from services growing mid‑single‑digits (~5%); operating costs guided to a ~4% CAGR (costs +5.0% in 2025, ~4.5% in 2026) with cost/income moving from the low‑40s toward the high‑30s (Q4 cost/income 39.4%). Balance‑sheet targets assume ~6% CAGR in lending and customer funds (2025 performing loans +7%; mortgages +6.5%, consumer +12.4%, business +7.6%; customer funds +6.8% with non‑interest deposits +EUR17bn), deposit cost ~47bps, customer spread ~302bps (adjusted); asset quality targets are NPLs <1.75% (Q4 2.07%), cost of risk <25bps (2025 =22bps), coverage 77% and EUR 311m of unassigned provisions. Capital and liquidity guidance remain conservative: CET1 12.56% at year‑end 2025 (target 11.5–12.5%; distribution threshold 12.5% for 2026/27), payout 50–60% (DPS EUR0.50, +15%; EPS +5%), ongoing share buybacks (~EUR0.5bn in the 7th program), LCR >200%, NSFR ≈150% and MREL 28.18%.CaixaBank SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
CaixaBank SA exhibits a robust financial performance with strong revenue and profit growth, supported by high margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with manageable leverage. Cash flow generation has improved significantly, although past volatility should be monitored.Income Statement
CaixaBank SA has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains high gross profit margins, consistently above 100%, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margins have also improved, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and solid profitability.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of CaixaBank SA shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which is typical for the banking industry. The return on equity has improved over the years, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced capital structure. While the debt levels are significant, they are managed well relative to equity, suggesting financial stability.78
Positive
Cash Flow
CaixaBank SA's cash flow statement reveals a substantial growth in free cash flow, particularly from 2023 to 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. However, the historical volatility in cash flows, especially in earlier years, poses a potential risk. Overall, the cash flow position is strong, with recent improvements enhancing liquidity.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.24B | 26.83B | 24.07B | 15.22B | 13.27B | 10.99B |
| Gross Profit | 16.24B | 17.04B | 15.96B | 12.58B | 11.36B | 9.12B |
| EBITDA | 4.77B | 9.10B | 7.70B | 5.05B | 6.01B | 2.14B |
| Net Income | 6.06B | 5.79B | 4.82B | 3.13B | 5.23B | 1.38B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 659.82B | 631.00B | 607.17B | 598.85B | 680.04B | 451.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.19B | 49.80B | 37.86B | 20.52B | 104.28B | 51.62B |
| Total Debt | 51.17B | 54.42B | 56.76B | 50.09B | 50.74B | 34.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 622.39B | 594.14B | 570.83B | 565.14B | 644.61B | 426.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.42B | 36.83B | 36.31B | 33.67B | 35.39B | 25.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 16.53B | 14.94B | -80.79B | 37.95B | 36.87B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 16.85B | 15.74B | -79.88B | 38.63B | 37.56B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -152.00M | 203.00M | 164.00M | 13.89B | 484.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -4.75B | 1.39B | -3.98B | 88.00M | -1.54B |
CaixaBank SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.46
Price Trends
4.06
Positive
3.76
Positive
3.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
55.61
Neutral
81.32
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAIXY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.23, below the 50-day MA of 4.06, and above the 200-day MA of 3.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CAIXY.
CaixaBank SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $92.36B | 12.87 | 12.18% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
77 Outperform | $94.38B | 14.37 | 15.16% | 3.61% | -5.82% | 14.88% | |
75 Outperform | $92.53B | 14.30 | 11.99% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
69 Neutral | $89.87B | 12.42 | 19.89% | 9.77% | 11.82% | 3.41% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $89.31B | 16.65 | 10.77% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
64 Neutral | $114.96B | 16.41 | 10.22% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% |
* Financial Sector Average
CAIXY
CaixaBank SA
4.30
2.30
114.68%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
8.68
4.09
89.02%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.81
2.86
96.95%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
9.00
3.52
64.23%
PNC
PNC Financial
238.51
44.85
23.16%
USB
US Bancorp
59.11
13.44
29.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.