Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI)
NASDAQ:CAI
Top Page
Caris Life Sciences, Inc.
(NASDAQ:CAI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-3.18% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (notably the swing to positive operating/free cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with strong 2026 growth guidance. These positives are tempered by still-large net losses and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), with valuation also constrained by loss-making status and no dividend yield support.
Positive Factors
High revenue growth and explicit 2026 guidance
Management's explicit guidance for ~23%–26% top-line growth based on existing solutions indicates durable commercial momentum. This reflects expanding therapy‑selection volumes and ASP gains, supporting multi-quarter revenue scalability and predictable organic growth over the next 2–6 months.
Swing to positive operating and free cash flow
A meaningful reversal to positive operating and free cash flow improves financial flexibility and reduces near-term refinancing risk. Sustainable cash generation supports reinvestment in commercial expansion and MCED capacity while preserving liquidity for execution over the medium term.
Large, proprietary genomic data asset and platform scale
A million+ profiled cases and extensive molecular markers create a durable competitive moat for product development, biomarker discovery and pharma collaborations. This data scale supports improved test performance, CDx opportunities and recurring partnerships that underpin long‑term revenue streams.
Negative Factors
Large GAAP net losses and weak profitability
Despite EBITDA and cash‑flow improvements, deep GAAP losses and a highly negative net margin indicate structural profitability headwinds. Persistent losses can impair returns on equity, limit reinvestment without dilutive financing, and extend the timeline to durable GAAP profitability.
MCED clinical validation risk
Early MCED (Caris Detect) data are promising but interim and case‑control based. Broad clinical adoption, payer coverage, and material revenue from MCED depend on blinded validation and large prospective studies, leaving product commercialization and associated revenue uncertain for months to quarters.
Reimbursement and ASP uncertainty
Revenue and ASPs are materially influenced by payer behavior and coding/regulatory outcomes. Uncertainty in Medicare coding/pricing and payer collections can create persistent ASP and reimbursement variability, posing structural risk to margins and revenue visibility over the medium term.
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. (CAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.95
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,769
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding282,146,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,065,891
30 Day Avg. Volume2,197,037
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.35
Price to Book (P/B)78.14
Price to Sales (P/S)55.55
P/FCF Ratio674.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.16K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.67Price Target Upside101.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$984.10M
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaris Life Sciences, Inc., an artificial intelligence TechBio company, provides molecular profiling services in the United States and internationally. It develops and commercializes solutions to transform healthcare using molecular information, and machine learning algorithms. The company's molecular profiling services portfolio includes MI Profile, a tissue-based molecular profiling solution; and Caris Assure, a blood-based molecular profiling solution for cancer treatment. It also offers pharma research and development services comprising laboratory delivery, strategic data, and research services to biopharmaceutical customers. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaris Life Sciences generates revenue through a combination of diagnostic testing services and collaboration with healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of its genomic and proteomic profiling tests, which are utilized by oncologists to tailor cancer treatments for individual patients. Additionally, the company engages in partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for biomarker discovery and clinical trial support, which further enhances its revenue. Caris also benefits from reimbursement agreements with insurance providers, allowing for the coverage of its testing services. Furthermore, the company may explore avenues such as licensing agreements and collaborations in research and development, contributing to its overall earnings.
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: very high revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, multiple quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, a large and growing genomic data asset, and encouraging interim MCED (Caris Detect) results (AUC 0.90, Stage I/II sensitivity 63.1%). Management outlined committed reinvestment in commercial expansion, R&D and MCED capacity while maintaining positive cash flow. Key risks and near-term uncertainties include the interim nature of MCED data (blinded validation and ACHIEVE-2 pending), reimbursement and ASP variability, a meaningful increase in OpEx and CapEx for 2026, and uneven pharma revenue cadence. On balance, the positive financial performance, strong cash position and promising product pipeline outweigh the listed risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Revenue Growth
Q4 total revenue of $293M, up 125% year-over-year; full-year total revenue growth ~97% year-over-year. Molecular profiling revenues reached $282M in Q4 (up 199% YoY) and $766.7M for the full year (up 120% YoY).
Strong Profitability and Cash Generation
Q4 GAAP net income of $82M, Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $106M and positive free cash flow of $39.7M. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $138M and full-year free cash flow of $67M. Cash on hand grew to slightly above $800M (increase of $43M in the quarter).
Improved Margins
Q4 GAAP gross margin improved to 75% (vs. 54% in Q4 2024 and 68% in Q3 2025). Full-year GAAP molecular profiling gross margin finished at ~66% (64% excluding additional prior‑year collections).
Volume and ASP Expansion
Clinical profiling volumes ~199,300 cases in 2025 (volume growth ~22% year-over-year for the year; 20% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q4). Clinical ASP increases: company reported a 150% clinical ASP increase (CEO commentary); full-year tissue ASP for 2025 cases ~$3,876 and blood ASP just above $2,500. Tissue ASP increased ~83% to >$4,000 and blood ASP increased ~69% to just under $2,800 (full-year trends).
Platform Scale and Data Assets
Platform milestone: more than 1 million profiled cases and ~50+ billion molecular markers; dataset includes ~627,000 exomes, ~678,000 transcriptomes and ~740,000 match profiles — strengthening product development and biopharma partnerships.
Promising ACHIEVE-1 (Caris Detect) Interim Results
ACHIEVE-1 interim (2,122 samples: 617 cancer, 1,505 controls) showed Stage I sensitivity 56.8% (n=266), Stage II 70.1% (n=137), Stage III 77% (n=105), Stage IV 99.1% (n=109); combined Stage I+II sensitivity 63.1%. Specificity: 99.1% in the screening cohort (n=121 with follow-up) and 95.3% in the higher-risk normal cohort (1,505). Overall AUC 0.90. A blinded holdout (~865 samples) is in process; ACHIEVE-2 enrollment and processing underway.
Commercial Momentum and Coverage
MI Cancer Seek represented >70% of tissue volume for the year and >75% in Q4; program covers >225 million lives. Therapy selection volumes up ~20% for the quarter and ~22% for the year. Caris Assure delivered 59% YoY growth in Q4.
2026 Financial Guidance with Growth and Investment
2026 guidance: total revenue for existing solutions of $1.00B–$1.02B (approx. 23%–26% growth). Clinical therapy selection volume expected to grow ~20%. Molecular profiling growth ~21%–22% (26%–28% excluding prior-year accruals). Tissue ASP target ~ $4,000 in Q1 and ~$4,200 for FY2026; blood ASP guidance $2,400–$2,500. Pharma & research revenue guidance $75M–$85M. Company expects to remain positive on adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while investing.
Strategic Investment Plan
Planned reinvestment in commercial expansion (salesforce +20%–25% from ~250 to ~300 reps), R&D and pipeline (including ACHIEVE-2 and MRD development), and capacity build for early detection with FY2026 CapEx guidance of ~$60M (up from ~$16M in 2025).
Negative Updates
Interim Nature and Validation Needs for MCED
ACHIEVE-1 results are interim and case-control based; limited longitudinal follow-up (22.5% of normals) and relatively small per-cancer sample sizes for many lineages (e.g., pancreas n=7, head & neck n=7). Blinded holdout (~865 samples) and ACHIEVE-2 (target 25,000) remain to be completed to fully validate performance before broad adoption.
Pharma & Research Revenue Softness and Variability
Pharma R&D services were down year-over-year earlier in the period despite a Q4 contribution of $10.8M; company notes pharma revenue cadence is uneven (Q1/Q3 typically lower) and growth relies on converting pipeline deals (Genentech announced, other CDx collaborations in progress).
Reimbursement and ASP Uncertainty
Final revenues were ~$12M higher than preliminary estimates due to additional payer collections, highlighting dependence on payer behavior. Medicare coding/pricing (CDLT/PAMA) creates regulatory reporting considerations; 25% of tissue volume remains outside the PLA code, leaving some ASP upside and reimbursement risk unrecognized in guidance.
Increased Operating Spend and Near-Term Uncertainty in Profitability
2026 GAAP operating expense guidance $590M–$595M (up ~19%–20%) driven by commercial expansion and R&D; company provides only that adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will remain positive, without a narrow EBITDA range — introducing near-term earnings visibility uncertainty despite balance sheet strength.
CapEx Increase and Execution Risk
Planned CapEx of ~$60M in 2026 (vs. ~$16M in 2025) to support early detection capacity and equipment (e.g., Nova X machines) increases execution and timing risk for ramping MCED infrastructure and adds near-term cash deployment needs.
Small Sample Sizes in Lineage-Specific Results
While overall sensitivity is encouraging, many lineage-specific Stage I/II sensitivity estimates are based on very small N, limiting confidence and requiring further data for robust commercialization and physician/payer acceptance.
Company Guidance
For full-year 2026, Caris guided to total revenue of $1.00–$1.02 billion (≈23%–26% growth vs. 2025) based only on existing solutions, with therapy‑selection volumes expected to grow ~20% year‑over‑year (tissue volumes in the low‑teens, blood volumes in the high‑50s/low‑60s growth range), molecular profiling revenue up ~21%–22% (or ~26%–28% excluding prior‑year accrual true‑ups), Q1 revenue pacing roughly +70%–74% YoY, tissue ASP tracking to ≈$4,000/case in Q1 and ≈$4,200 for the full year, blood ASP targeted at $2,400–$2,500, Pharma & Research revenue of $75M–$85M, GAAP operating expenses of $590M–$595M (≈19%–20% increase), CapEx of ~ $60M in 2026 (vs. ~$16M in 2025) to support MCED launch, and a commitment to remain positive on adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while investing (cash on hand > $800M); guidance excludes revenue from pipeline products until they begin to generate revenue.Caris Life Sciences, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operational momentum improved materially in 2025 with sharply higher revenue, positive EBITDA, and a swing to positive operating and free cash flow. Offsetting this, profitability remains weak with a deeply negative net margin, and the balance sheet shows volatility (negative equity in 2022–2024 versus strongly positive in 2025), reducing confidence in durability.Income Statement
Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 (annual revenue up ~56%), and EBITDA turned positive (~5.6% margin), signaling improving operating momentum. However, profitability remains a major drag: net income was deeply negative in 2025 (net margin about -66%), following multiple years of substantial losses (2022–2024 net margins roughly -68% to -124%). Gross profit and gross margin for 2025 are shown as zero, which limits visibility into core unit economics for the most recent year.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears very low in 2025 (debt is minimal and debt-to-equity is near zero), and equity is positive with a sizable asset base, which supports balance-sheet flexibility. That said, the balance sheet looks volatile across periods: equity was materially negative in 2022–2024 and then flips to strongly positive in 2025, making trend-based confidence weaker. Returns on equity are also unfavorable in 2025 due to the large net loss.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved meaningfully in 2025, with positive operating cash flow (~$83M) and positive free cash flow (~$67M) alongside strong free-cash-flow growth. This is a notable reversal from 2022–2024, when operating cash flow and free cash flow were consistently negative. A key watchout is that cash flow did not fully cover the net loss in 2025, indicating earnings quality is still pressured even as cash flow improves.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 812.03M | 412.26M | 306.13M | 258.49M | 294.01M |
| Gross Profit | 0.00 | 178.78M | 89.31M | 80.02M | 184.16M |
| EBITDA | 11.38M | -182.95M | -260.80M | -245.89M | 254.46M |
| Net Income | -537.96M | -281.89M | -341.42M | -320.83M | 27.73M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 343.73M | 412.90M | 717.42M | 2.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 800.09M | 66.15M | 121.59M | 409.62M | 132.54M |
| Total Debt | 169.00K | 424.26M | 217.27M | 270.87M | 1.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 548.36M | 2.84B | 2.56B | 2.42B | 1.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 577.31M | -2.50B | -2.14B | -1.70B | 702.24M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 66.89M | -253.64M | -298.42M | -327.96M | 57.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 83.16M | -245.20M | -276.10M | -285.71M | 277.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.26M | 52.93M | 214.77M | -282.99M | -33.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 664.99M | 200.29M | 10.13M | 10.45M | -249.88M |
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. Risk Analysis
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caris Life Sciences, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caris Life Sciences, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $5.68B | ― | -45.37% | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $16.60M | -0.26 | -189.72% | ― | ― | 70.57% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $38.47M | -1.43 | -67.47% | ― | ― | 9.63% | |
48 Neutral | $8.68M | -0.20 | -81.97% | ― | -46.88% | 34.83% | |
40 Underperform | $555.72K | ― | ― | ― | -8.57% | -52.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CAI
Caris Life Sciences, Inc.
20.14
-7.11
-26.09%
INAB
IN8bio
1.70
-6.10
-78.21%
MSPR
MSP Recovery
0.04
-12.91
-99.70%
SNSE
Sensei Biotherapeutics
30.50
21.88
253.83%
BOLT
Bolt Biotherapeutics
4.52
-4.31
-48.81%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.