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MSP Recovery (MSPR)
OTHER OTC:MSPR
US Market

MSP Recovery (MSPR) AI Stock Analysis

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MSPR

MSP Recovery

(OTC:MSPR)

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Underperform 39 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:
$0.05
▼(-81.54% Downside)
The score is primarily driven down by very weak financial performance (declining revenue, large losses, negative cash flows, and negative equity). Technicals also remain decisively bearish with the price well below key moving averages and negative MACD, despite oversold readings. Corporate events add further downside pressure due to delisting and constrained liquidity/financing, while valuation inputs provide limited support given an uninformative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Contingency-fee revenue model
A contingency-fee model aligns MSPR’s revenue with successful recoveries, reducing billing receivable risk and incentivizing efficiency. Over 2–6 months this supports durable revenue when recovery pipelines persist, preserves working capital needs vs. upfront fee models and ties costs to outcomes.
Niche Medicare/Medicaid recovery and analytics
Focused expertise in Medicare/Medicaid secondary-payor recovery and use of analytics create a specialized service niche that is hard to replicate quickly. This structural positioning supports repeat client relationships and a defensible operational moat tied to regulatory complexity and data-driven processes.
Regulatory overhang resolved (SEC)
Closure of the SEC investigation without enforcement materially reduces legal and regulatory uncertainty. This durable outcome removes a persistent overhang, helping management focus on operations, rebuilding partner confidence and improving the firm's ability to negotiate financing or commercial agreements.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
Substantially negative equity signals solvency stress and undermines creditor and investor confidence. Over months this constrains access to capital, increases refinancing and covenant risks, and may force dilutive financing or asset sales, limiting the company's strategic flexibility and long-term viability.
Sharp revenue decline and collapsing margins
Steep revenue declines and a dramatic fall in gross and net margins indicate structural challenges in demand or execution. Persisting over quarters this erodes free cash generation, hinders reinvestment in analytics or personnel, and raises the bar for any sustainable operational turnaround.
Delisting and acute liquidity constraints
Nasdaq delisting and moves to OTC materially reduce liquidity and visibility, impairing capital-raising capacity. Temporary, limited advances and a creditor extension only defer default risks. Over months, constrained financing access threatens operations, hiring, and the ability to scale recoveries.

MSP Recovery (MSPR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

MSP Recovery Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMSP Recovery (MSPR) is a healthcare and technology company specializing in the recovery of secondary payments for healthcare providers and insurers. The company focuses on identifying and recovering funds that are owed to healthcare providers under various insurance programs, particularly Medicare and Medicaid. MSPR operates primarily in the healthcare sector, leveraging advanced technology and data analytics to facilitate its recovery processes and improve financial outcomes for its clients.
How the Company Makes MoneyMSP Recovery generates revenue through a contingency fee model, whereby it earns a percentage of the recovered funds on behalf of its clients. This means that the company only makes money when it successfully recovers payments, aligning its financial success with that of its clients. Key revenue streams include amounts recovered from Medicare and Medicaid claims, as well as partnerships with healthcare providers and insurers that seek to optimize their revenue recovery processes. Additionally, MSPR may engage in strategic collaborations with technology firms to enhance its data analytics capabilities, which can lead to increased efficiency and higher recovery rates, contributing further to its earnings.

MSP Recovery Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2024
(Q1-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted LifeWallet's successful settlements and increased claims recovery income, demonstrating progress in its core business model. However, the company also reported a significant operating loss, primarily due to noncash items. Overall, while there are substantial achievements, the financial results reflect ongoing challenges.
Q1-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Settlements with Insurers
LifeWallet achieved two comprehensive settlements with multiple property and casualty insurers, resolving claims and establishing a process for future claims. The settlements include provisions for data sharing and a 5-year agreement for binding mediation of Medicare claim liens.
Increased Claims Recovery Income
The company generated claims recovery income of $6 million in Q1 2024, up from $3.5 million in Q1 2023, indicating progress in its recovery strategies.
Expansion of Data Collaboration
LifeWallet entered into a tri-party data collaboration agreement with Palantir Technologies and 28 affiliated settling counterparties to enhance its ability to reconcile Medicare liabilities.
Liquidity and Financial Flexibility
LifeWallet extended its obligations with Virage, Nomura, and Yorkville to 2025, and secured a working capital credit facility with an additional $14 million borrowing capacity.
Negative Updates
Significant Operating Loss
LifeWallet reported an operating loss of $130 million for Q1 2024, with 93% attributed to noncash items such as claims amortization expense.
Intangible Asset Decrease
Total assets decreased by $124 million from December 31, 2023, primarily due to the amortization of intangible assets.
Company Guidance
During the LifeWallet First Quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting significant achievements and financial metrics. LifeWallet reached two comprehensive settlements with property and casualty insurers, which included agreements to provide 10 years of historical data and to collaboratively resolve future Medicare claims. These settlements resulted in claims recovery income of $6 million for Q1 2024, an increase from the $3.5 million reported in Q1 2023. The company reported a total operating loss of $130 million, primarily driven by non-cash items, with an adjusted operating loss of $8.7 million after excluding claims amortization expenses. LifeWallet's total assets were valued at $3 billion, with liabilities amounting to $1.8 billion. The company has extended various obligations to 2025 and secured additional liquidity through a working capital credit facility and a Yorkville standby equity purchase agreement, ensuring its ability to meet cash obligations over the next year.

MSP Recovery Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MSP Recovery is facing significant financial difficulties, with declining revenues, substantial losses, and negative cash flows. The balance sheet is weak, with negative equity and high leverage, indicating a precarious financial position.
Income Statement
The income statement reveals significant challenges, with a declining revenue growth rate of -26.12% TTM and negative margins across the board. Gross profit margin has decreased from 47.36% in 2024 to 26.33% TTM, indicating reduced profitability. The net profit margin is deeply negative at -73.28% TTM, reflecting substantial losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a concerning financial structure, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$563.84 million TTM, leading to a negative debt-to-equity ratio. The return on equity is positive at 3.93% TTM, but this is due to the negative equity base. The equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, indicating potential solvency issues.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates severe liquidity challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows. The free cash flow growth rate is -54.28% TTM, showing a worsening cash position. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting cash flow issues despite reported net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.81M18.25M7.71M23.42M14.63M13.89M
Gross Profit2.58M8.64M5.56M21.37M14.09M13.71M
EBITDA-617.81M-652.46M-545.71M-280.47M-5.52M-3.15M
Net Income-719.22M-360.50M-56.35M-7.42M-33.09M-24.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.55B1.92B3.16B3.42B104.01M17.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.82M12.33M11.63M3.66M1.66M11.88M
Total Debt761.48M794.66M679.22M324.25M213.61M48.09M
Total Liabilities2.40B2.05B1.74B1.23B255.41M133.69M
Stockholders Equity-563.84M100.58M272.39M109.69M-155.76M-120.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-10.59M-16.65M-41.77M-83.62M1.62M-344.00K
Operating Cash Flow-10.22M-16.12M-40.02M-80.64M2.25M-14.00K
Investing Cash Flow-527.00K-2.73M7.56M-5.68M-2.01M986.00K
Financing Cash Flow-97.89M19.54M29.02M99.73M-10.46M9.61M

MSP Recovery Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.26
Price Trends
50DMA
0.29
Negative
100DMA
0.94
Negative
200DMA
5.22
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Negative
RSI
32.49
Neutral
STOCH
17.55
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSPR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.13, below the 50-day MA of 0.29, and below the 200-day MA of 5.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSPR.

MSP Recovery Risk Analysis

MSP Recovery disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MSP Recovery reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

MSP Recovery Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
45
Neutral
$131.19K>-0.01-728.82%1049.89%66.27%
39
Underperform
$1.01M-8.57%-52.17%
38
Underperform
$13.22M-0.54187.24%82.90%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MSPR
MSP Recovery
0.07
-16.04
-99.60%
WORX
SCWorx
0.19
-1.58
-89.46%
ONMD
OneMedNet
1.07
0.03
2.88%
FOXO
FOXO Technologies
0.01
-3.96
-99.75%
VSEE
VSee Health
0.41
-0.96
-69.85%
ACON
Aclarion, Inc.
4.20
-380.21
-98.91%

MSP Recovery Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
MSP Recovery Gains Extension on Yorkville Financing Default
Negative
Jan 9, 2026

MSP Recovery, Inc. previously entered into a standby equity purchase agreement with Yorkville, under which it can sell up to $250 million of common stock and has received capital advances via convertible promissory notes, with about $3.6 million outstanding as of early January 2026. After the company’s Class A common stock ceased trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market on December 22, 2025 and moved to the OTCQB, a default trigger tied to loss of a primary market listing was set to occur after a 10‑day period ending January 6, 2026, but on January 8, 2026 Yorkville agreed to extend this period to 90 calendar days through March 22, 2026, effectively deferring enforcement of default remedies related solely to the Nasdaq delisting so long as the stock continues trading on the OTCQB, providing the company temporary breathing room with a key financing partner.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Hold with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MSP Recovery obtains limited one-time advance amid liquidity strain
Negative
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, MSP Recovery, Inc., through its subsidiaries, entered into a letter agreement with Hazel Partners Holdings LLC to secure a one-time $325,000 advance under its existing working capital credit facility, with the funds restricted to operating expenses and expected to be funded on or before January 9, 2026, subject to standard conditions such as the absence of default. The company emphasized that this advance is a standalone accommodation that temporarily lifts the Operational Collection Floor beyond its previously exhausted $6.0 million level, does not reinstate or reopen any broader funding availability under the facility, and does not provide ongoing or committed liquidity, underscoring MSP Recovery’s continued lack of assured access to future financing and highlighting ongoing constraints around its ability to meet future operating and debt service obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Sell with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
MSP Recovery Faces OTC Transfer and Liquidity Challenges
Negative
Jan 5, 2026

On December 22, 2025, MSP Recovery, Inc.’s Class A common stock was delisted from the Nasdaq Capital Market, with its common stock and public warrants beginning to trade that day on the OTCQB Venture Market, while its new warrants moved to the OTC Pink Basic Market. On January 5, 2026, the company was notified that trading of its public warrants would be transferred to the OTC Pink Basic Market effective January 6, 2026, a shift that is expected to limit market quotations, reduce liquidity and pricing for its securities, and potentially hinder its ability to raise additional capital. Also on December 22, 2025, the company furloughed seven employees, about 33% of its workforce, as part of liquidity management and restructuring efforts, a move expected to materially impact core operations from January 5, 2026 and potentially have a material adverse effect on revenues and operating results.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Sell with a $0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
MSP Recovery Announces Transition of Chief Operating Officer
Neutral
Dec 29, 2025

On December 22, 2025, MSP Recovery, Inc. announced that Ricardo Rivera ceased to be employed by the company and no longer serves as Chief Operating Officer, though he will remain available to advise the company through December 31, 2025 to support a smooth transition of his responsibilities. The company emphasized that Rivera’s departure did not stem from any disagreement over its management, operations, policies, or practices, suggesting the leadership change is not expected to signal broader strategic or governance turmoil for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Hold with a $0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MSP Recovery Set for Nasdaq Delisting, Moves to OTCQB
Negative
Dec 22, 2025

MSP Recovery, listed under the ticker “MSPR,” operates in the financial and legal services space focused on recovering funds on behalf of healthcare payers and other stakeholders, and its shares have been trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market.

On December 18, 2025, the company was notified that its appeal against Nasdaq staff decisions from October 22 and November 28, 2025, had been denied, and that its common stock would be delisted from Nasdaq effective at the open of trading on December 22, 2025, due to failure to meet minimum stockholders’ equity and minimum bid price requirements. The delisting follows findings that MSP Recovery’s stockholders’ equity fell below the $2.5 million threshold and its share price traded under $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days; as a result, the stock is expected to transition to trading on the OTCQB market, which may affect liquidity and visibility for existing shareholders and could signal ongoing financial and compliance challenges for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Sell with a $0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MSP Recovery Cleared by SEC After Investigation
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

On December 7, 2025, MSP Recovery, Inc. announced that the SEC concluded its investigation without recommending enforcement action against the company or its officers. The investigation, which began on August 11, 2022, focused on various aspects including a business combination transaction and financial statements. MSP Recovery fully cooperated with the SEC, and the conclusion allows the company to continue its operations without the burdens associated with the investigation.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Sell with a $0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MSP Recovery Faces Nasdaq Delisting Threat
Negative
Dec 4, 2025

On October 22, 2025, MSP Recovery received a Staff Delisting Determination from Nasdaq due to non-compliance with the minimum stockholders’ equity requirement and other financial standards. The company has requested a review and submitted necessary documentation to a Hearings Panel, with a hearing scheduled for December 11, 2025. Additionally, on November 28, 2025, the company was notified of non-compliance with the minimum bid price requirement, further threatening its Nasdaq listing. If delisted, MSP Recovery expects its stock to trade on the OTCQB Venture Market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Sell with a $0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
MSP Recovery Faces Nasdaq Delisting Notification
Negative
Oct 28, 2025

On October 28, 2025, MSP Recovery, Inc. and Yorkville reached an agreement to reduce the Floor Price under their Standby Equity Purchase Agreement from $1.00 to $0.50. Additionally, MSP Recovery amended its promissory note with Nomura to reflect a principal amount of $35.4 million and secured a waiver for $3.0 million to fund operations. Despite these financial maneuvers, MSP Recovery received a delisting notification from Nasdaq on October 22, 2025, due to non-compliance with stockholder equity requirements. The company intends to appeal the decision, with the possibility of its stock trading on the OTCQB Venture Market if delisted from Nasdaq.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSPR) stock is a Sell with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MSP Recovery stock, see the MSPR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 10, 2026