Carlsberg (CABGY) AI Stock Analysis

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Carlsberg

(OTC:CABGY)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$30.00

▲(17.51%Upside)

Carlsberg's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment as key strengths. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which is a risk factor. The fair valuation and strategic initiatives bolster the company's growth prospects, but market challenges in specific regions temper the enthusiasm.

Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$17.05B

Dividend Yield3.12%

Average Volume (3M)3.58K

Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0

Beta (1Y)0.30

Revenue Growth1.83%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees32,098

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength54

IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.31

Shares Outstanding494,787,780

10 Day Avg. Volume2,809

30 Day Avg. Volume3,575

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)4.24

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio12.39

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$34.00

Price Target Upside33.18% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarlsberg A/S produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Denmark. It offers core, and craft and specialty beers; and alcohol-free brews. The company provides its products primarily under the Carlsberg, Tuborg, Feldschlösschen, Baltika, Chongqing, 1664 Blanc, Grimbergen, Ringnes, and Somersby brand names. Carlsberg A/S also exports its products to approximately 100 countries worldwide. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.

How the Company Makes MoneyCarlsberg generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of its beer and beverage products. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales to retailers, wholesalers, and distributors, as well as on-premise establishments such as bars and restaurants. Carlsberg also benefits from its extensive network of licensed partners and joint ventures, which helps expand its market reach and brand presence globally. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and branding efforts to drive consumer demand and increase market share. Carlsberg's strategic partnerships and acquisitions in various markets also contribute to its earnings by enhancing production capabilities and distribution networks.

Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 27.08%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strategic acquisitions and strong performance in CEE&I, but faced challenges in France and volume declines in key regions. Despite increased costs, the overall financial performance showed improvement. The strategic initiatives and acquisitions position Carlsberg for future growth, but market challenges remain.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Accelerate SAIL Strategy

Launched a refreshed strategy aiming for 4% to 6% CAGR in top-line growth and higher operating profit.

Britvic Acquisition

Acquired Britvic for GBP 3.3 billion, doubling exposure to soft drinks, and enhancing partnership with PepsiCo.

Market Expansion

Acquired full ownership of businesses in India and Nepal for $744 million, with India showing strong growth potential.

Strong Performance in CEE&I

Volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 7.8%, and operating profit growth of 9.6% in the CEE&I region.

Improved Financial Metrics

Reported operating profit grew by 2.8% to DKK 11.4 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 120 basis points.

Negative Updates

Challenges in France

Market share loss due to price increases, impacting volumes of the mainstream Kronenbourg brand.

Volume Decline in Western Europe and Asia

Beer volumes declined by 1.1% in Western Europe and 1% in Asia, mainly due to soft markets in France and China.

Increased Costs

Higher logistics, sales investments, and write-off of obsolete technology platforms increased operating expenses by 5%.

San Miguel Contract Termination

Loss of San Miguel brand in the UK expected to negatively impact organic operating profit growth by 2-3 percentage points.

Company Guidance

In the Carlsberg Full Year 2024 Conference Call, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company launched an updated strategy, Accelerate SAIL, which targets a 4% to 6% CAGR in long-term top-line growth and aims to grow operating profit faster by recovering gross margins despite higher commercial investments. Carlsberg made significant acquisitions, including Britvic for GBP 3.3 billion and partners in the UK for GBP 206 million, while divesting its Russian business for DKK 2.3 billion. The company returned DKK 5.6 billion to shareholders and plans to reduce leverage to below 2.5x by 2027. Operating profit grew organically by 6%, with improvements in gross margin by 120 basis points to 45.8%. For 2025, Carlsberg expects organic operating profit growth of 1% to 5%, driven by stable consumer environments and strategic investments, while also integrating Britvic with anticipated GBP 100 million in cost synergies by 2029.

Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carlsberg's financial health is robust, characterized by consistent revenue growth, strong operational margins, and an improved balance sheet. Despite a setback in 2023, the company demonstrated resilience with a recovery in profitability and sound cash flow management. The balance between leverage and equity supports future growth prospects.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Carlsberg has demonstrated solid revenue growth, increasing from 70.27 billion in 2022 to 75.01 billion in 2024, reflecting consistent demand. The gross profit margin remained stable around 45-46%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin turned positive in 2024 after a negative spike in 2023 due to exceptional items affecting net income that year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have stayed strong, indicating robust operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, improving from 1.26 in 2023 to 1.37 in 2024, suggesting managed leverage. Stockholders' equity has grown, enhancing the equity ratio. The return on equity is healthy, although it was negatively impacted in 2023 by the significant net income loss but recovered in 2024, showcasing resilience. Overall, the company maintains a stable asset base.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Carlsberg's operating cash flow remains strong, with a slight decline from 2022 to 2024. Free cash flow, although decreasing from 2022 to 2024, remains positive, providing ample liquidity for strategic investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved significantly in 2024, demonstrating efficient cash conversion despite past challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	75.01B	73.58B	70.27B	66.63B	58.54B
Gross Profit	34.38B	32.83B	32.07B	31.33B	28.36B
EBITDA	15.80B	15.02B	14.85B	15.33B	14.29B
Net Income	9.12B	-40.79B	8.18B	6.85B	6.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	113.33B	111.83B	115.34B	126.38B	118.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.60B	15.62B	8.16B	8.34B	8.09B
Total Debt	38.14B	39.10B	28.65B	28.92B	30.25B
Total Liabilities	82.72B	86.08B	80.62B	77.63B	75.45B
Stockholders Equity	27.77B	23.23B	31.90B	43.94B	39.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.28B	7.36B	8.93B	9.04B	6.53B
Operating Cash Flow	11.31B	11.61B	12.95B	13.26B	10.93B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.52B	-6.73B	-3.06B	-4.38B	-5.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.94B	1.37B	-9.96B	-8.95B	-1.81B

Carlsberg Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price25.53

Price Trends

50DMA

28.10

Negative

100DMA

27.27

Negative

200DMA

24.17

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.65

Positive

RSI

29.47

Positive

STOCH

4.35

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CABGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.51, below the 50-day MA of 28.10, and above the 200-day MA of 24.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.47 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CABGY.

Carlsberg Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CABGY	74 Outperform	$17.05B	17.02	27.24%	3.12%	1.83%	―
BUD	71 Outperform	$116.33B	16.02	8.97%	1.84%	-2.06%	21.03%
CCU	71 Outperform	$2.18B	12.45	11.33%	3.87%	6.18%	61.39%
STZ	69 Neutral	$29.45B	49.10	-5.05%	2.44%	-0.47%	-117.62%
TAP	69 Neutral	$9.78B	9.69	7.90%	3.78%	-5.17%	-0.74%
ABEV	66 Neutral	$35.05B	13.42	15.08%	2.03%	-0.79%	-10.83%
Sector *	66 Neutral	£8.44B	8.84	5.42%	3.61%	0.64%	12.86%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CABGY

Carlsberg

25.53

1.55

6.46%

BUD

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa

57.10

-5.53

-8.83%

CCU

Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA

11.83

1.14

10.66%

STZ

Constellation Brands

166.18

-74.50

-30.95%

TAP

Molson Coors

48.21

-3.01

-5.88%

ABEV

Ambev SA

2.18

0.25

12.95%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 29, 2025