Carlsberg (CABGY) AI Stock Analysis

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Carlsberg

(OTC:CABGY)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$26.00

▲(6.38% Upside)

Carlsberg's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, particularly the successful integration of Britvic and improved guidance. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are moderate, balancing the overall score.

Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$16.38B

Dividend Yield3.22%

Average Volume (3M)3.34K

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1

Beta (1Y)0.27

Revenue Growth10.69%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees32,098

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength58

IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.65

Shares Outstanding494,787,780

10 Day Avg. Volume7,215

30 Day Avg. Volume3,341

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)0.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.38

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.84

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.97

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$26.00

Price Target Upside6.38% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarlsberg (CABGY) is a leading global brewery group headquartered in Denmark, renowned for its extensive portfolio of beer and beverage brands. Founded in 1847, Carlsberg operates in various segments including beer production, soft drinks, and other alcoholic beverages. Its core products feature a range of well-known brands such as Carlsberg, Tuborg, and Kronenbourg, alongside local and craft beers that cater to diverse consumer preferences across markets in Europe, Asia, and beyond.

How the Company Makes MoneyCarlsberg generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages, particularly beer. The company operates on a revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, wholesalers, and distributors, as well as selling products through its own branded outlets. Key revenue streams include international sales of its flagship brands and local products tailored to specific markets. Carlsberg also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with various distributors and retailers, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, the company capitalizes on seasonal demand patterns, promotional campaigns, and sponsorships of major events to boost sales. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, product innovation, and expansion into emerging markets, where beer consumption is on the rise.

Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -4.12%|

Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Carlsberg has demonstrated strong growth and successful integration of Britvic, leading to significant revenue and profit increases. However, challenges remain in certain markets, particularly in Asia, and the loss of San Miguel in the UK has affected organic growth figures.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue and Profit Growth

Total reported volumes increased by 16%, reported revenue grew by 18.2%, and reported operating profit rose by 15.1% due to the Britvic acquisition.

Britvic Integration Success

The integration of Britvic is on track, with synergy realization progressing as planned. Britvic volumes in the UK grew by 1%, and Pepsi Max saw strong market share growth.

Growth in Premium and Alcohol-Free Beverages

Premium beer and alcohol-free brews saw good growth, with premium beer up 5% and alcohol-free brews up 7%.

Market Share Gains in Key Regions

Carlsberg gained market share in Western Europe and Asia, with significant growth in markets like China and India for premium Carlsberg.

Positive Outlook and Guidance Update

The full-year guidance for organic operating profit growth has been narrowed towards the upper end of the previous range, now expected at 3% to 5%.

Negative Updates

Organic Volume Decline

Organic volumes declined by 0.4% for the half year, primarily due to the impact of losing San Miguel in the UK and challenging trading environments.

Challenges in Asia

The Chinese on-trade channel remains under pressure with a decline in store count and low footfall, and market conditions in Vietnam and Laos are weak.

Impact of San Miguel Loss

The organic development was negatively impacted by the loss of San Miguel in the UK, affecting volume and revenue growth figures.

Flooding and Economic Challenges

Flooding in Italy and weak macroeconomic conditions in Laos and Ukraine have negatively impacted operations and financial performance.

Company Guidance

During the Carlsberg H1 2025 Financial Statement Conference Call, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen and CFO Ulrica Fearn provided detailed guidance on the company's performance and future outlook. The acquisition of Britvic significantly impacted Carlsberg's financials, with reported volumes up by 16%, revenue growing 18.2%, and operating profit increasing by 15.1%. Adjusted for the loss of San Miguel, Q2 revenue grew by 2.4%. The company also narrowed its full-year guidance for organic operating profit growth towards the upper end of the previous range, now expecting 3% to 5% growth, up from 1% to 5%. The Britvic integration is progressing well, contributing to strong market share in the U.K. and Ireland, and is expected to deliver an operating profit of around GBP 250 million for the year. Carlsberg is focused on supply chain efficiencies and cost controls while continuing to invest in key strategic priorities.

Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carlsberg's financial health is robust, characterized by consistent revenue growth, strong operational margins, and an improved balance sheet. Despite a setback in 2023, the company demonstrated resilience with a recovery in profitability and sound cash flow management. The balance between leverage and equity supports future growth prospects.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Carlsberg has demonstrated solid revenue growth, increasing from 70.27 billion in 2022 to 75.01 billion in 2024, reflecting consistent demand. The gross profit margin remained stable around 45-46%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin turned positive in 2024 after a negative spike in 2023 due to exceptional items affecting net income that year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have stayed strong, indicating robust operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, improving from 1.26 in 2023 to 1.37 in 2024, suggesting managed leverage. Stockholders' equity has grown, enhancing the equity ratio. The return on equity is healthy, although it was negatively impacted in 2023 by the significant net income loss but recovered in 2024, showcasing resilience. Overall, the company maintains a stable asset base.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Carlsberg's operating cash flow remains strong, with a slight decline from 2022 to 2024. Free cash flow, although decreasing from 2022 to 2024, remains positive, providing ample liquidity for strategic investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved significantly in 2024, demonstrating efficient cash conversion despite past challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	75.01B	73.58B	70.27B	66.63B	58.54B
Gross Profit	34.38B	32.83B	32.07B	31.33B	28.36B
EBITDA	15.80B	15.02B	14.85B	15.33B	14.29B
Net Income	9.12B	-40.79B	8.18B	6.85B	6.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	113.33B	111.83B	115.34B	126.38B	118.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.60B	15.62B	8.16B	8.34B	8.09B
Total Debt	38.14B	39.10B	28.65B	28.92B	30.25B
Total Liabilities	82.72B	86.08B	80.62B	77.63B	75.45B
Stockholders Equity	27.77B	23.23B	31.90B	43.94B	39.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.28B	7.36B	8.93B	9.04B	6.53B
Operating Cash Flow	11.31B	11.61B	12.95B	13.26B	10.93B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.52B	-6.73B	-3.06B	-4.38B	-5.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.94B	1.37B	-9.96B	-8.95B	-1.81B

Carlsberg Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price24.44

Price Trends

50DMA

26.90

Negative

100DMA

27.15

Negative

200DMA

24.35

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.85

Positive

RSI

37.36

Neutral

STOCH

39.55

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CABGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.02, below the 50-day MA of 26.90, and above the 200-day MA of 24.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CABGY.

Carlsberg Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCU	78 Outperform	$2.27B	14.59	10.15%	3.68%	13.92%	32.69%
ABEV	75 Outperform	$34.74B	13.24	15.08%	2.07%	-0.79%	-10.83%
BUD	75 Outperform	$123.42B	17.29	8.97%	1.64%	-2.06%	21.03%
CABGY	71 Outperform	$16.38B	16.09	27.63%	3.22%	10.69%	―
TAP	67 Neutral	$10.20B	10.15	7.79%	3.55%	-5.48%	-6.99%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.91B	14.58	-4.08%	3.07%	2.70%	-8.71%
STZ	60 Neutral	$29.25B	49.10	-5.05%	2.44%	-0.47%	-117.62%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CABGY

Carlsberg

24.44

1.96

8.72%

BUD

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa

63.86

2.90

4.76%

CCU

Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA

12.33

0.89

7.78%

STZ

Constellation Brands

167.62

-72.35

-30.15%

TAP

Molson Coors

52.81

0.68

1.30%

ABEV

Ambev SA

2.23

<0.01

0.45%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025