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Carlsberg A/S (CABGY)
OTHER OTC:CABGY
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Carlsberg
(OTC:CABGY)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(6.91% Upside)
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The acquisition of Britvic has significantly boosted Carlsberg's revenue and profit, indicating strong growth potential and successful strategic expansion.
Market Share Gains
Market share gains in key regions like Western Europe and Asia enhance Carlsberg's competitive position and support long-term revenue growth.
Operational Efficiency
Emphasis on supply chain efficiencies and cost controls strengthens Carlsberg's operational margins, ensuring sustainable profitability.
Negative Factors
Challenges in Asia
Weak market conditions in Asia, particularly in China, Vietnam, and Laos, pose challenges to Carlsberg's growth and market expansion efforts.
Impact of San Miguel Loss
The loss of San Miguel in the UK has negatively impacted Carlsberg's organic growth, highlighting vulnerabilities in its market strategy.
Flooding and Economic Challenges
Adverse weather and economic conditions in certain regions disrupt operations and could affect Carlsberg's financial stability and growth.
Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.73B
Dividend Yield3.23%
Average Volume (3M)3.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth10.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees32,098
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.65
Shares Outstanding494,787,780
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume3,761
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.00Price Target Upside6.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering0
Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCarlsberg A/S produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Denmark. It offers core, and craft and specialty beers; and alcohol-free brews. The company provides its products primarily under the Carlsberg, Tuborg, Feldschlösschen, Baltika, Chongqing, 1664 Blanc, Grimbergen, Ringnes, and Somersby brand names. Carlsberg A/S also exports its products to approximately 100 countries worldwide. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarlsberg generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages, particularly beer. The company operates on a revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, wholesalers, and distributors, as well as selling products through its own branded outlets. Key revenue streams include international sales of its flagship brands and local products tailored to specific markets. Carlsberg also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with various distributors and retailers, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, the company capitalizes on seasonal demand patterns, promotional campaigns, and sponsorships of major events to boost sales. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, product innovation, and expansion into emerging markets, where beer consumption is on the rise.
Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Carlsberg has demonstrated strong growth and successful integration of Britvic, leading to significant revenue and profit increases. However, challenges remain in certain markets, particularly in Asia, and the loss of San Miguel in the UK has affected organic growth figures.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Total reported volumes increased by 16%, reported revenue grew by 18.2%, and reported operating profit rose by 15.1% due to the Britvic acquisition.
Britvic Integration Success
The integration of Britvic is on track, with synergy realization progressing as planned. Britvic volumes in the UK grew by 1%, and Pepsi Max saw strong market share growth.
Growth in Premium and Alcohol-Free Beverages
Premium beer and alcohol-free brews saw good growth, with premium beer up 5% and alcohol-free brews up 7%.
Market Share Gains in Key Regions
Carlsberg gained market share in Western Europe and Asia, with significant growth in markets like China and India for premium Carlsberg.
Positive Outlook and Guidance Update
The full-year guidance for organic operating profit growth has been narrowed towards the upper end of the previous range, now expected at 3% to 5%.
Negative Updates
Organic Volume Decline
Organic volumes declined by 0.4% for the half year, primarily due to the impact of losing San Miguel in the UK and challenging trading environments.
Challenges in Asia
The Chinese on-trade channel remains under pressure with a decline in store count and low footfall, and market conditions in Vietnam and Laos are weak.
Impact of San Miguel Loss
The organic development was negatively impacted by the loss of San Miguel in the UK, affecting volume and revenue growth figures.
Flooding and Economic Challenges
Flooding in Italy and weak macroeconomic conditions in Laos and Ukraine have negatively impacted operations and financial performance.
Company Guidance
During the Carlsberg H1 2025 Financial Statement Conference Call, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen and CFO Ulrica Fearn provided detailed guidance on the company's performance and future outlook. The acquisition of Britvic significantly impacted Carlsberg's financials, with reported volumes up by 16%, revenue growing 18.2%, and operating profit increasing by 15.1%. Adjusted for the loss of San Miguel, Q2 revenue grew by 2.4%. The company also narrowed its full-year guidance for organic operating profit growth towards the upper end of the previous range, now expecting 3% to 5% growth, up from 1% to 5%. The Britvic integration is progressing well, contributing to strong market share in the U.K. and Ireland, and is expected to deliver an operating profit of around GBP 250 million for the year. Carlsberg is focused on supply chain efficiencies and cost controls while continuing to invest in key strategic priorities.Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Carlsberg's financial health is robust, characterized by consistent revenue growth, strong operational margins, and an improved balance sheet. Despite a temporary setback in 2023, the company has shown resilience with a recovery in profitability and sound cash flow management.Income Statement
Carlsberg has demonstrated solid revenue growth, increasing from 70.27 billion in 2022 to 75.01 billion in 2024, reflecting consistent demand. The gross profit margin remained stable around 45-46%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin turned positive in 2024 after a negative spike in 2023 due to exceptional items affecting net income that year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have stayed strong, indicating robust operational performance.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, improving from 1.26 in 2023 to 1.37 in 2024, suggesting managed leverage. Stockholders' equity has grown, enhancing the equity ratio. The return on equity is healthy, although it was negatively impacted in 2023 by the significant net income loss but recovered in 2024, showcasing resilience. Overall, the company maintains a stable asset base.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Carlsberg's operating cash flow remains strong, with a slight decline from 2022 to 2024. Free cash flow, although decreasing from 2022 to 2024, remains positive, providing ample liquidity for strategic investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved significantly in 2024, demonstrating efficient cash conversion despite past challenges.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 74.56B | 75.01B | 73.58B | 70.27B | 66.63B | 58.54B |
| Gross Profit | 33.90B | 34.38B | 32.83B | 32.07B | 31.33B | 28.36B |
| EBITDA | 14.52B | 15.80B | 15.02B | 14.85B | 15.33B | 14.29B |
| Net Income | -40.55B | 9.12B | -40.79B | 8.18B | 6.85B | 6.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 112.27B | 113.33B | 111.83B | 115.34B | 126.38B | 118.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.71B | 11.60B | 15.62B | 8.16B | 8.34B | 8.09B |
| Total Debt | 37.08B | 38.14B | 39.10B | 28.65B | 28.92B | 30.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 88.27B | 82.72B | 86.08B | 80.62B | 77.63B | 75.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.66B | 27.77B | 23.23B | 31.90B | 43.94B | 39.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.66B | 6.28B | 7.36B | 8.93B | 9.04B | 6.53B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.39B | 11.31B | 11.61B | 12.95B | 13.26B | 10.93B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.45B | -1.52B | -6.73B | -3.06B | -4.38B | -5.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.89B | -13.94B | 1.37B | -9.96B | -8.95B | -1.81B |
Carlsberg Technical Analysis
Negative
24.32
Price Trends
25.91
Negative
26.99
Negative
24.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
43.01
Neutral
43.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CABGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.21, below the 50-day MA of 25.91, and below the 200-day MA of 24.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CABGY.
Carlsberg Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $36.04B | 13.79 | 15.08% | 1.98% | -0.79% | -10.83% | |
75 Outperform | $117.04B | 16.38 | 8.97% | 1.78% | -2.06% | 21.03% | |
71 Outperform | $16.73B | 16.20 | 27.63% | 3.23% | 10.69% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $2.21B | 13.93 | 10.15% | 3.84% | 13.92% | 32.69% | |
66 Neutral | $9.71B | 9.66 | 7.79% | 3.77% | -5.48% | -6.99% | |
62 Neutral | $20.56B | 14.66 | -3.18% | 3.15% | 1.93% | -6.58% | |
60 Neutral | $25.19B | 49.10 | -5.05% | 2.84% | -0.47% | -117.62% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CABGY
Carlsberg
24.32
0.94
4.02%
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CCU
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12.11
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STZ
Constellation Brands
142.98
-104.22
-42.16%
TAP
Molson Coors
49.13
-4.01
-7.55%
ABEV
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2.29
0.16
7.51%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.