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Carlsberg
(OTC:CABGY)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(6.79% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:02/06/26
CABGY scores as moderately attractive: strong cash flow improvement and solid operating profitability are the main positives, but higher leverage and earnings volatility cap the financial profile. Technically the trend is strong, yet overbought readings raise near-term risk. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling, while earnings-call guidance and Britvic synergy execution support a steady (not aggressive) outlook.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
A material step-up in free cash flow in 2025 strengthens Carlsberg's internal funding capacity. Sustained FCF supports debt service, planned deleveraging, capex and dividends without needing frequent external financing. This bolsters medium-term financial flexibility versus prior weak years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest costs, constraining capital allocation and M&A optionality. High net-debt ratios mean Carlsberg is more exposed to profit or cash-flow setbacks before targeted deleveraging to ≤2.5x is achieved by end‑2027.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
A material step-up in free cash flow in 2025 strengthens Carlsberg's internal funding capacity. Sustained FCF supports debt service, planned deleveraging, capex and dividends without needing frequent external financing. This bolsters medium-term financial flexibility versus prior weak years.
Read all positive factors
Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.60B
Dividend Yield3.02%
Average Volume (3M)2.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.8
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth23.86%
EPS Growth-3.91%
CountryUS
Employees32,098
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.29
Shares Outstanding494,787,780
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)1.24
P/FCF Ratio14.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.02
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.32B
Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carlsberg A/S, headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark, specializes in the production and global distribution of beer and various other beverage products. Their extensive portfolio includes traditional core beers, a range of craft and specialty brews...
How the Company Makes Money
Carlsberg makes money primarily by selling beverages—mainly beer—under its portfolio of brands. Revenue is generated through (1) sales to off-trade customers such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and wholesalers, and (2) sales to on-trade cust...
Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call shows a balanced picture: strong acquisition execution (Britvic) with faster-than-expected cost synergies, solid reported top-line and EPS growth, improved cash flow and increased dividends. Offsetting this are persistent organic softness in some markets (notably parts of Asia, Ukraine and Beyond Beer), non-cash PPA amortization and elevated leverage that keep financial costs higher. Management presents a cautious but constructive outlook for 2026 with clear deleveraging targets and ongoing integration and commercial initiatives.Positive Updates
Successful Britvic acquisition and fast integration
Britvic closed in mid-Jan 2025; integration started immediately, people changes concluded ahead of plan, procurement integration underway; 2025 reported contribution: 24m hl, DKK 15.6bn revenue, operating profit DKK 2.2bn (GBP 253m).
Negative Updates
Limited organic revenue growth and softer volumes
Group organic revenue development -0.6% on reported basis; excluding loss of San Miguel, organic revenue would have been +1.1%. Volumes declined slightly overall, with Asia being a main drag.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Britvic acquisition and fast integration
Britvic closed in mid-Jan 2025; integration started immediately, people changes concluded ahead of plan, procurement integration underway; 2025 reported contribution: 24m hl, DKK 15.6bn revenue, operating profit DKK 2.2bn (GBP 253m).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carlsberg guided 2026 organic operating profit (MPM) growth of 2–6% (on a 2025 operating profit MPM base of DKK 13.996bn), expects to deliver 30–40% of the GBP 110m Britvic cost synergies in 2026 (with up to 60–70% delivered after two years), and sees the Kazakhstan Pepsi license adding ~1.5 percentage points to group organic volume; it assumes a FX translation headwind of ~DKK 100m, financial expenses (ex FX) of ~DKK 2.2bn, an effective tax rate around 23%, CapEx of DKK 6–7bn, and flattish COGS per hectoliter while holding SG&A tight (with a slight rise in marketing and capability investments); the group finished 2025 with NIBD DKK 61.6bn (3.28x EBITDA) and aims to reach ≤2.5x NIBD/EBITDA by end‑2027, having generated DKK 7bn free operating cash flow in 2025, adjusted EPS of DKK 61, and proposing a DKK 29 dividend (≈48% payout).Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 89.09B | 75.01B | 73.58B | 70.27B | 60.10B |
| Gross Profit | 40.24B | 34.38B | 32.83B | 32.07B | 28.57B |
| EBITDA | 17.39B | 15.80B | 15.02B | 13.96B | 13.80B |
| Net Income | 5.96B | 9.12B | -40.79B | -1.06B | 6.85B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 153.94B | 113.33B | 111.83B | 115.34B | 126.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.58B | 11.60B | 15.62B | 8.16B | 8.34B |
| Total Debt | 70.62B | 38.14B | 39.10B | 28.65B | 28.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 123.27B | 82.72B | 86.08B | 80.62B | 77.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.80B | 27.77B | 23.23B | 31.90B | 45.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.81B | 1.03B | 7.36B | 8.93B | 9.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.54B | 1.76B | 11.61B | 12.95B | 13.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.21B | -1.52B | -6.73B | -4.65B | -4.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 20.36B | -13.94B | 1.37B | -9.76B | -8.95B |
Carlsberg Technical Analysis
Positive
26.22
Price Trends
26.69
Positive
26.79
Positive
25.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.55
Negative
59.80
Neutral
67.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CABGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.95, below the 50-day MA of 26.69, and above the 200-day MA of 25.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CABGY.
Carlsberg Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $48.80B | 15.98 | 17.19% | 8.22% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
66 Neutral | $22.89B | 12.78 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -9.99% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $157.49B | 16.30 | 8.66% | 1.83% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
64 Neutral | $19.60B | 19.76 | 23.31% | 3.02% | 23.86% | -3.91% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $2.07B | 16.97 | 7.53% | 2.53% | 0.23% | -28.74% | |
57 Neutral | $7.38B | -3.68 | -19.15% | 4.08% | -1.30% | -312.85% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
CABGY
Carlsberg
28.14
0.41
1.47%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
79.61
12.69
18.96%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.10
-1.36
-10.92%
STZ
Constellation Brands
134.06
-26.17
-16.33%
TAP
Molson Coors
39.17
-8.27
-17.43%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.07
0.85
38.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.