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Carlsberg A/S (CABGY)
OTHER OTC:CABGY
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Carlsberg
(OTC:CABGY)
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(19.55%Upside)
Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.91B
Dividend Yield0.39%
Average Volume (3M)2.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth1.83%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees32,098
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength57
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding494,787,780
10 Day Avg. Volume7,918
30 Day Avg. Volume2,639
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)3.28
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio14.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.00Price Target Upside19.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCarlsberg A/S produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Denmark. It offers core, and craft and specialty beers; and alcohol-free brews. The company provides its products primarily under the Carlsberg, Tuborg, Feldschlösschen, Baltika, Chongqing, 1664 Blanc, Grimbergen, Ringnes, and Somersby brand names. Carlsberg A/S also exports its products to approximately 100 countries worldwide. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarlsberg Group generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of beer and other beverage products. The company's revenue model is centered around its extensive portfolio of beer brands, which it distributes across various markets globally. Key revenue streams include direct sales to consumers through retail outlets, bars, and restaurants, as well as through partnerships with distributors and wholesalers. Carlsberg also leverages its strong brand presence to earn from premium and specialty beer offerings, which often command higher prices. Additionally, the company continuously explores growth opportunities through strategic acquisitions and joint ventures in emerging markets, further enhancing its revenue potential. Significant factors contributing to Carlsberg's earnings include its focus on enhancing operational efficiency, expanding its product portfolio, and investing in marketing and brand-building activities to increase market share and consumer loyalty.
Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: 41.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strategic acquisitions and strong performance in CEE&I, but faced challenges in France and volume declines in key regions. Despite increased costs, the overall financial performance showed improvement. The strategic initiatives and acquisitions position Carlsberg for future growth, but market challenges remain.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Accelerate SAIL Strategy
Launched a refreshed strategy aiming for 4% to 6% CAGR in top-line growth and higher operating profit.
Britvic Acquisition
Acquired Britvic for GBP 3.3 billion, doubling exposure to soft drinks, and enhancing partnership with PepsiCo.
Market Expansion
Acquired full ownership of businesses in India and Nepal for $744 million, with India showing strong growth potential.
Strong Performance in CEE&I
Volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 7.8%, and operating profit growth of 9.6% in the CEE&I region.
Improved Financial Metrics
Reported operating profit grew by 2.8% to DKK 11.4 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 120 basis points.
Negative Updates
Challenges in France
Market share loss due to price increases, impacting volumes of the mainstream Kronenbourg brand.
Volume Decline in Western Europe and Asia
Beer volumes declined by 1.1% in Western Europe and 1% in Asia, mainly due to soft markets in France and China.
Increased Costs
Higher logistics, sales investments, and write-off of obsolete technology platforms increased operating expenses by 5%.
San Miguel Contract Termination
Loss of San Miguel brand in the UK expected to negatively impact organic operating profit growth by 2-3 percentage points.
Company Guidance
In the Carlsberg Full Year 2024 Conference Call, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company launched an updated strategy, Accelerate SAIL, which targets a 4% to 6% CAGR in long-term top-line growth and aims to grow operating profit faster by recovering gross margins despite higher commercial investments. Carlsberg made significant acquisitions, including Britvic for GBP 3.3 billion and partners in the UK for GBP 206 million, while divesting its Russian business for DKK 2.3 billion. The company returned DKK 5.6 billion to shareholders and plans to reduce leverage to below 2.5x by 2027. Operating profit grew organically by 6%, with improvements in gross margin by 120 basis points to 45.8%. For 2025, Carlsberg expects organic operating profit growth of 1% to 5%, driven by stable consumer environments and strategic investments, while also integrating Britvic with anticipated GBP 100 million in cost synergies by 2029.Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Carlsberg's financial health is robust, characterized by consistent revenue growth, strong operational margins, and an improved balance sheet. Despite a temporary setback in 2023, the company has shown resilience with a recovery in profitability and sound cash flow management. The balance between leverage and equity supports future growth prospects.Income Statement
Carlsberg has demonstrated solid revenue growth, increasing from 70.27 billion in 2022 to 75.01 billion in 2024, reflecting consistent demand. The gross profit margin remained stable around 45-46%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin turned positive in 2024 after a negative spike in 2023 due to exceptional items affecting net income that year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have stayed strong, indicating robust operational performance.88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, improving from 1.26 in 2023 to 1.37 in 2024, suggesting managed leverage. Stockholders' equity has grown, enhancing the equity ratio. The return on equity is healthy, although it was negatively impacted in 2023 by the significant net income loss but recovered in 2024, showcasing resilience. Overall, the company maintains a stable asset base.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Carlsberg's operating cash flow remains strong, with a slight decline from 2022 to 2024. Free cash flow, although decreasing from 2022 to 2024, remains positive, providing ample liquidity for strategic investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved significantly in 2024, demonstrating efficient cash conversion despite past challenges.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 74.56B | 75.01B | 73.58B | 70.27B | 66.63B | 58.54B |
| Gross Profit | 33.90B | 34.38B | 32.83B | 32.07B | 31.33B | 28.36B |
| EBITDA | 14.52B | 15.80B | 15.02B | 14.85B | 15.33B | 14.29B |
| Net Income | -40.55B | 9.12B | -40.79B | 8.18B | 6.85B | 6.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 125.42B | 113.33B | 111.83B | 115.34B | 126.38B | 118.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.13B | 11.60B | 15.62B | 8.16B | 8.34B | 8.09B |
| Total Debt | 25.89B | 38.14B | 39.10B | 28.65B | 28.92B | 30.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 78.73B | 82.72B | 86.08B | 80.62B | 77.63B | 75.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 44.21B | 27.77B | 23.23B | 31.90B | 43.94B | 39.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.66B | 6.28B | 7.36B | 8.93B | 9.04B | 6.53B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.39B | 11.31B | 11.61B | 12.95B | 13.26B | 10.93B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.45B | -1.52B | -6.73B | -3.06B | -4.38B | -5.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.89B | -13.94B | 1.37B | -9.96B | -8.95B | -1.81B |
Carlsberg Technical Analysis
Positive
28.44
Price Trends
28.19
Positive
26.79
Positive
23.80
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
52.36
Neutral
66.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CABGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.29, above the 50-day MA of 28.19, and above the 200-day MA of 23.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CABGY.
Carlsberg Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $18.91B | 18.97 | 27.24% | 0.39% | 1.83% | ― | |
79 Outperform | $136.53B | 23.50 | 7.31% | 1.55% | 0.58% | 9.94% | |
75 Outperform | $38.76B | 14.72 | 15.09% | 3.64% | 1.25% | -13.02% | |
73 Outperform | $2.45B | 14.12 | 11.33% | 3.25% | 6.18% | 61.39% | |
65 Neutral | $27.02B | 15.16 | -4.24% | 3.17% | 1.01% | 1.94% | |
65 Neutral | $30.03B | 49.10 | -5.05% | 2.39% | -0.47% | -117.62% | |
65 Neutral | $10.02B | 9.93 | 7.90% | 3.81% | -5.17% | -0.74% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CABGY
Carlsberg
28.44
3.33
13.26%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
67.51
6.98
11.53%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
12.89
0.99
8.32%
STZ
Constellation Brands
169.04
-85.23
-33.52%
TAP
Molson Coors
49.55
0.00
0.00%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.40
0.40
20.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.