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Carlsberg
(OTC:CABGY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(8.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
CABGY’s score is primarily driven by solid operating profitability and improved cash generation, but tempered by higher leverage and historical earnings volatility. The latest earnings call was a positive offset with upgraded/narrowed guidance and faster synergy delivery, while technical signals are mixed and valuation metrics (P/E ~19.7, ~3.19% yield) are broadly moderate.
Positive Factors
Broad-based category and portfolio growth
Growth across soft drinks, premium beer, alcohol-free products and Pepsi broadens Carlsberg’s revenue base. This portfolio diversification can improve resilience, support premiumization and reduce dependence on mainstream beer demand over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and reduced financial flexibility
Despite recent net leverage reduction, the year-end debt-to-equity increase leaves Carlsberg more exposed to weaker profits, refinancing needs and higher financing costs. A heavier capital structure can constrain acquisitions, dividends and investment flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based category and portfolio growth
Growth across soft drinks, premium beer, alcohol-free products and Pepsi broadens Carlsberg’s revenue base. This portfolio diversification can improve resilience, support premiumization and reduce dependence on mainstream beer demand over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Carlsberg (CABGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.61B
Dividend Yield3.19%
Average Volume (3M)2.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.7
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth23.86%
EPS Growth-3.91%
CountryUS
Employees36,998
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.29
Shares Outstanding494,787,780
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)3.96
Price to Sales (P/S)1.24
P/FCF Ratio14.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.24B
Carlsberg Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carlsberg A/S (CABGY) is a global brewing company that produces, markets, and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, with a primary focus on beer. The company owns and manages a portfolio of international, regional, and local brands (includi...
How the Company Makes Money
Carlsberg makes money primarily by selling beverages—mainly beer—under its portfolio of brands. Revenue is generated through (1) sales to off-trade customers such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and wholesalers, and (2) sales to on-trade cust...
Carlsberg Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive message: the Group delivered solid organic revenue and operating profit growth, improved margins, stronger cash generation and materially reduced leverage. Strategic moves (Britvic integration, Pepsi expansions, Sapporo JV) and faster-than-expected synergy delivery underpin upgraded confidence and a narrowed, higher earnings guidance. Main challenges noted were a weak China beer market exacerbated by severe weather and temporary destocking, Kazakhstan’s current lack of profitability diluting regional margins, FX headwinds and localized market softness (Poland, Ukraine). Overall, the positive operational progress, balance-sheet improvements and clearer outlook outweigh the near-term regional headwinds.Positive Updates
Top-line and Earnings Growth
Organic revenue +2.7% (Group CPM) driven by volume (+1.7%) and revenue per hectoliter (+1%). Organic operating profit +5.9%; operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 15.8%.
Negative Updates
Weak China Beer Market and Severe Weather Impact
Asia volumes flat (H1); beer volumes in Asia -0.9%. China significantly impacted by severe Q2 weather (heavy rain/flooding) with stronger-than-normal destocking and reduced consumption in key strongholds (noted Q2 and early Q3 weakness); distributor inventory build expected to weigh on near-term sell-through and Q3.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line and Earnings Growth
Organic revenue +2.7% (Group CPM) driven by volume (+1.7%) and revenue per hectoliter (+1%). Organic operating profit +5.9%; operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 15.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carlsberg narrowed its 2026 guidance for organic operating profit (CPM) growth to 4–6% (up from a prior 2–6% range), reflecting a solid H1 (CPM) performance—organic operating profit +5.9%, operating margin 15.8% and revenue DKK 47.1bn (+2.7% organic)—and management now expects to realize roughly 80% of total Britvic synergies by year‑end; assumptions include no currency impact on operating profit at yesterday’s spot rates, net finance costs (ex‑FX) of ~DKK 1.8bn (down from DKK 2.2bn previously), CapEx of DKK 6–7bn, a tax rate of ~23%, limited 2026 profitability benefit from the Kazakhstan plant (start-up end‑Q3), and continued H2 earnings growth provided no material deterioration in the external environment.Carlsberg Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 89.09B | 75.01B | 73.58B | 70.27B | 60.10B |
| Gross Profit | 40.24B | 34.38B | 32.83B | 32.07B | 28.57B |
| EBITDA | 17.39B | 15.80B | 15.02B | 13.96B | 13.80B |
| Net Income | 5.96B | 9.12B | -40.79B | -1.06B | 6.85B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 153.94B | 113.33B | 111.83B | 115.34B | 126.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.58B | 11.60B | 15.62B | 8.16B | 8.34B |
| Total Debt | 70.62B | 38.14B | 39.10B | 28.65B | 28.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 123.27B | 82.72B | 86.08B | 80.62B | 77.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.80B | 27.77B | 23.23B | 31.90B | 45.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.81B | 1.03B | 7.36B | 8.93B | 9.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.54B | 1.76B | 11.61B | 12.95B | 13.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.21B | -1.52B | -6.73B | -4.65B | -4.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 20.36B | -13.94B | 1.37B | -9.76B | -8.95B |
Carlsberg Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $43.57B | 14.17 | 18.13% | 4.28% | 4.24% | 19.95% | |
68 Neutral | $16.91B | 12.45 | 23.13% | 3.14% | -9.99% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $19.61B | 19.67 | 23.31% | 3.26% | 23.86% | -3.91% | |
63 Neutral | $153.93B | 13.05 | 12.72% | 1.65% | 6.60% | 31.61% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $7.62B | -3.53 | -22.65% | 4.64% | -1.77% | -326.16% | |
60 Neutral | $2.16B | 19.19 | 6.96% | 2.49% | 0.56% | -28.00% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
CABGY
Carlsberg
28.15
4.42
18.61%
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131.00
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-18.92%
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41.13
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-16.42%
ABEV
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32.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.