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Blackstone Group (BX)
NYSE:BX
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Blackstone Group
(NYSE:BX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$122.00
▲(6.89% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high profitability and solid free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook supported by robust inflows and AUM growth. These positives are tempered by weak current technical momentum (downtrend across major moving averages) and a valuation that looks demanding on earnings despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, large free cash flow provides durable funding for distributions, reinvestment, and debt servicing. High FCF-to-earnings parity supports earnings quality and financial flexibility, enabling Blackstone to fund new funds, buyouts, and return capital across cycles.
Scaleable AUM and record fundraising
Large, growing AUM and outsized inflows create a durable fee base and economies of scale. Strong fundraising and abundant dry powder support sustained management fee growth, deployment optionality, and the ability to capture opportunities as deal activity accelerates.
Diversified, high-performing platform
Broad, multi-asset scale across credit, infrastructure, private equity and private wealth reduces single-market dependence. Strong performance and rising credit/infrastructure scale create durable fee diversification and competitive advantage in fundraising and product distribution.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage on balance sheet
Higher leverage constrains financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to rising interest rates or downturns. Elevated debt levels can limit opportunistic deal activity, heighten refinancing risk, and pressure distributable earnings if asset realizations or fee growth slow.
Reliance on nonrecurring monetizations
Dependence on one-time realizations reduces comparability and predictability of distributable earnings and FRE. When outcomes rely on sporadic monetizations, forecasting fee-related earnings and investor returns becomes harder, raising execution risk across planning horizons.
Sector concentration in portfolio holdings
Heavy exposure to a few sectors amplifies vulnerability to sector-specific shocks (e.g., valuation resets or regulatory changes). Concentration can create correlated downside across portfolios and reduce the benefit of diversification during adverse cycles.
Blackstone Group (BX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$135.57B
Dividend Yield3.02%
Average Volume (3M)7.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.9
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth33.12%
EPS Growth19.86%
CountryUS
Employees4,895
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.75
Shares Outstanding742,180,700
10 Day Avg. Volume10,342,674
30 Day Avg. Volume7,749,426
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.55
Price to Book (P/B)13.89
Price to Sales (P/S)8.70
P/FCF Ratio68.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$159.27Price Target Upside39.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)6.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.66B
Blackstone Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlackstone Inc. is an alternative asset management firm specializing in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early-stage companies. It also provide capital markets services. The real estate segment specializes in opportunistic, core+ investments as well as debt investment opportunities collateralized by commercial real estate, and stabilized income-oriented commercial real estate across North America, Europe and Asia. The firm's corporate private equity business pursues transactions throughout the world across a variety of transaction types, including large buyouts,special situations, distressed mortgage loans, mid-cap buyouts, buy and build platforms, which involves multiple acquisitions behind a single management team and platform, and growth equity/development projects involving significant majority stakes in portfolio companies and minority investments in operating companies, shipping, real estate, corporate or consumer loans, and alternative energy greenfield development projects in energy and power, property, dislocated markets, shipping opportunities, financial institution breakups, re-insurance, and improving freight mobility, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, enterprise tech and consumer, as well as consumer technologies. The firm considers investment in Asia and Latin America. It has a three year investment period. Its hedge fund business manages a broad range of commingled and customized fund solutions and its credit business focuses on loans, and securities of non-investment grade companies spread across the capital structure including senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock and common equity. Blackstone Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices across Asia, Europe and North America.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackstone generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. The company earns management fees based on the assets it manages, which are calculated as a percentage of the committed capital in its private equity, real estate, and credit funds. Additionally, Blackstone collects performance fees, also known as carried interest, which are earned when the funds exceed specific return benchmarks. This model incentivizes the firm to maximize returns for its investors. Significant partnerships and relationships with institutional investors, such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, contribute to its capital raising efforts and overall earnings. Furthermore, Blackstone's diverse investment strategies across various sectors help mitigate risks and enhance revenue stability.
Blackstone Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets Under Management
Indicates the total value of assets that Blackstone Group manages on behalf of clients, reflecting the scale of its operations and potential for fee-based revenue growth.
Indicates the total value of assets that Blackstone Group manages on behalf of clients, reflecting the scale of its operations and potential for fee-based revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBlackstone Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized record financial results, strong fundraising, significant AUM growth, robust investment performance across credit, infrastructure, and private equity, and accelerating deal activity and realizations. Management acknowledged real estate's slow recovery, some sector-specific headwinds, retail redemption sensitivity in certain credit vehicles, and dependence on a few one-time monetizations. On balance, the firm presented multiple structural tailwinds (AI infrastructure, private markets adoption, and institutional demand), clear momentum in fee growth and inflows, and a constructive outlook for 2026–2027.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Distributable Earnings and Strong Quarterly Results
GAAP net income of $2.0 billion in Q4; distributable earnings (DE) of $2.2 billion in Q4 ($1.75 per common share). Full-year DE grew ~20% to $7.1 billion, or $5.57 per share — the best year in the firm's history.
Exceptional Fundraising and Inflows
Inflows reached $71 billion in Q4 (the highest level in 3.5 years) and roughly $239–$240 billion for the full year, lifting momentum across institutional, private wealth, and insurance channels.
Assets Under Management Growth
AUM increased 13% year-over-year to a record of approximately $1.275 trillion (nearly $1.3 trillion), reflecting broad-based fundraising and product expansion.
Fee-Related Earnings and Management Fee Expansion
Q4 fee-related earnings (FRE) of $1.5 billion ($1.25 per share); management fees of $2.1 billion in Q4, up 11% YoY. Full-year FRE grew 9% to $5.7 billion and management fees rose 12% to $8.0 billion; FRE margin expanded over 100 basis points to a record full-year level.
Strong Investment Performance Across Key Businesses
Infrastructure appreciated 24% for 2025 (8.4% in Q4); corporate private equity up 14% for 2025 (5% in Q4); BXMA composite returned ~13% for 2025 and positive for 23 consecutive quarters.
Credit Platform Momentum and Performance
Total credit AUM of $520 billion, up 15% YoY; full-year non-investment grade private credit gross return 11% and real estate credit 17%. Direct lending realized losses were minimal at ~11 basis points over the last 12 months.
Private Wealth Channel Acceleration
Private wealth fundraising rose 53% YoY to $43 billion in 2025; private wealth AUM grew 16% YoY to over $300 billion. Notable products: BCRED gross sales $3.3 billion in Q4 and record $14 billion gross sales for full year; BXP annualized net return ~17% since inception and $18 billion AUM.
Deployment and Investment Activity
Invested $138 billion across the firm in 2025 (highest level in four years) and closed/signed eight privatizations including the $18 billion WholeLogic acquisition and the $7.2 billion Medline IPO, which traded +40% on day one.
Realizations and Monetizations Accelerating
Net realizations rose 59% YoY in Q4 to $957 million and increased ~50% for the full year to $2.1 billion, driven by several realizations (Resolution Life stake, Las Vegas asset, life sciences royalties, and BXMA crystallizations).
Negative Updates
Real Estate Recovery Is Slow and Values Still Below Prior Cycle
Since the start of the interest-rate cycle (~4 years), private real estate values remain down ~16% while the S&P 500 rose ~75%. Real estate funds saw limited appreciation in 2025 (overall RE appreciated ~1% in Q4 and ~1.5% for the year).
Sector-Specific Real Estate Headwinds
Notable headwinds within real estate included life sciences office and UK student housing, which offset strength from data centers and logistics.
Reliance on One-Time Realizations
Some Q4 and FY results benefitted from one-time monetizations (e.g., Resolution Life stake and Bistro sale), which will not repeat and reduce comparability going forward.
Retail Redemptions and Distribution Sensitivity in Credit
BCRED experienced an uptick in redemptions in Q4 amid headlines and retail nervousness despite continued gross sales; retail demand for some investment-grade private credit products lags institutional interest.
Geopolitical and Macro Uncertainty
Management repeatedly cited tariff uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and the prolonged U.S. government shutdown as sources of market turbulence and near-term uncertainty.
Regulatory and Distribution Friction in Europe
European direct lending (eCred) faces a more complex regulatory and distribution landscape, slowing scale relative to the U.S. opportunity despite positive early traction ($700 million raised in a recent quarter).
Concentration and Sector Risk
Approximately 75% of global equity holdings are concentrated in data centers, logistics, and rental housing — a source of strength but also concentration risk if those sectors weaken.
Company Guidance
Blackstone guided that momentum should continue into 2026, forecasting continued management fee growth and a strong FRE trajectory (after FY‑2025 FRE of $5.7B and management fees of $8.0B, with FRE margin +100 bps in 2025), plus net realizations should remain “strong” (FY realizations $2.1B; Q4 $957M) even without one‑time items; key balance‑sheet and fundraising metrics underpinning this view include Q4 inflows of $71B and FY inflows of ~ $240B, AUM up 13% to $1.275T, nearly $200B of dry powder, DE of $7.1B for 2025 (Q4 DE $2.2B, $1.75/sh), and record segment strength (credit AUM $520B, +15% YoY with >$140B inflows; private wealth AUM >$300B, +16% YoY with Q4 sales >$11B; infrastructure $77B, +40% YoY; BXMA AUM $96B, +14% YoY). Management highlighted fundraising and product rollouts — five new PE drawdown funds targeting >$50B aggregate and expected to be fee‑earning by year‑end, a growing investment‑grade private credit base ($130B, +30% YoY), and continued contributions from perpetual strategies — and characterized the 2026 starting position as one of fee stability with potential upside to FRE margin and strong realization and transaction activity as the deal cycle accelerates.Blackstone Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and improving 2025 revenue growth (+12.6% YoY) support the score, with healthy free cash flow generation (~$4.55B, ~98% of net income). Offsetting factors are elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.5–1.8x in 2022–2025) and multi-year earnings/cash-flow volatility.Income Statement
Revenue accelerated in 2025 (+12.6% YoY) after a sluggish 2024 (+0.5%) and flat-to-down 2022–2023, indicating improving momentum. Profitability is a clear strength: 2025 margins remained very high (gross ~86%, EBIT/EBITDA ~52%) and net margin stayed solid (~22%), though below the peak levels seen in 2021. Net income rose in 2025 vs. 2024, but earnings have been more volatile across the cycle (notably stronger in 2021), which tempers the score.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows moderate-to-elevated leverage for the period, with debt-to-equity rising from ~0.9x in 2020–2021 to ~1.5–1.8x in 2022–2025, and total debt increasing to ~$14.2B in 2025. Equity has grown, but not as fast as debt, keeping leverage a key watch item. A positive offset is strong profitability on equity (ROE ~35% in 2025, ~34% in 2024), supporting balance sheet resilience despite the higher leverage profile.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a strength: free cash flow was ~$4.55B in 2025 (up ~24.5% YoY) and closely matched reported earnings (free cash flow was ~98% of net income), suggesting good earnings quality. However, cash-flow stability is uneven across years (free cash flow declines in 2023 and roughly flat in 2024), and the provided operating cash flow coverage indicator is inconsistent (including a 0.0 value in 2024), which adds uncertainty and reduces the score modestly.73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.83B | 11.37B | 7.44B | 7.45B | 16.85B |
| Gross Profit | 11.90B | 10.93B | 7.01B | 7.13B | 16.65B |
| EBITDA | 7.21B | 6.50B | 3.00B | 3.53B | 13.63B |
| Net Income | 3.02B | 2.78B | 1.39B | 1.75B | 5.86B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 47.71B | 43.47B | 40.29B | 42.52B | 41.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.85B | 1.97B | 2.96B | 4.25B | 2.12B |
| Total Debt | 14.17B | 12.29B | 12.29B | 13.37B | 8.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.83B | 23.97B | 22.21B | 22.84B | 19.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.67B | 8.21B | 6.82B | 7.66B | 9.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.74B | 3.42B | 3.83B | 6.10B | 3.92B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.86B | 3.48B | 4.06B | 6.34B | 3.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.28B | -61.41M | -229.65M | -235.50M | -64.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.40B | -4.50B | -5.05B | -3.79B | -3.78B |
Blackstone Group Technical Analysis
Negative
114.14
Price Trends
140.54
Negative
144.09
Negative
151.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-7.90
Positive
33.44
Neutral
31.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 114.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 123.81, below the 50-day MA of 140.54, and below the 200-day MA of 151.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BX.
Blackstone Group Risk Analysis
Blackstone Group disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blackstone Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $171.74B | 29.90 | 10.74% | 1.92% | 15.79% | -3.85% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $135.57B | 39.87 | 35.78% | 3.02% | 33.12% | 19.86% | |
64 Neutral | $37.12B | 66.62 | 12.40% | 2.65% | 50.70% | 7.32% | |
60 Neutral | $18.66B | 26.29 | 14.23% | 2.30% | -24.62% | 437.16% | |
59 Neutral | $17.51B | 31.80 | 13.14% | 3.03% | 25.02% | 235.70% | |
57 Neutral | $83.65B | 47.88 | 8.69% | 0.56% | -33.80% | -24.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
BX
Blackstone Group
114.14
-26.70
-18.95%
BLK
BlackRock
1,049.23
108.87
11.58%
KKR
KKR & Co
93.83
-21.58
-18.70%
CG
Carlyle Group
52.50
10.07
23.73%
ARES
Ares Management
116.21
-33.04
-22.14%
TPG
TPG
45.57
-2.19
-4.58%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.