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Brc Inc. (BRCC)
:BRCC
US Market

BRC (BRCC) AI Stock Analysis

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BRC

(NYSE:BRCC)

Rating:40Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(13.64%Upside)
BRCC's overall stock score is primarily driven by significant financial challenges and bearish technical momentum. The company's struggles with profitability, high leverage, and negative cash flow generation are major concerns. While corporate governance improvements are noted, they do not offset the current financial and technical weaknesses.
Positive Factors
Earnings Guidance
Management affirmed its full-year sales and EBITDA guidance.
Quarterly Performance
Fourth-quarter EBITDA of $10 million were above the estimate of $7 million.
Sales Performance
Earnings quality was mixed, with sales above expectations.
Negative Factors
Earnings Estimate
EBITDA of $0.9 million were below the estimate of $3.0 million.
Future Guidance
Management provided initial 2025 EBITDA guidance below the forecast.
Wholesale Sales
Headline wholesale sales fell 9%.

BRC (BRCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlack Rifle Coffee Company (BRCC) is a veteran-owned coffee company that primarily sells high-quality coffee products through direct-to-consumer channels and retail partnerships. The company is known for its strong brand identity that resonates with military veterans and conservative consumers, offering a range of coffees, apparel, and accessories. BRCC seeks to support veterans, active-duty military, and first responders through its products and philanthropic efforts.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlack Rifle Coffee Company generates revenue through the sale of coffee products, including whole bean and ground coffee, coffee pods, and ready-to-drink beverages. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model via its website, which is a significant revenue stream, allowing customers to purchase products through one-time purchases or subscription services. Additionally, BRCC sells its products through retail partnerships with major retailers, expanding its market reach. The company also generates income from branded merchandise, such as apparel and accessories, which complements its core coffee offerings. BRCC's unique brand positioning and strong community engagement help maintain customer loyalty and drive sales.

BRC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -44.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with significant achievements in operational efficiency, product launch, and market share gains countered by challenges in revenue growth and direct-to-consumer performance. The growth in Adjusted EBITDA and market expansion highlights strong financial health, but the overall revenue decline and cost pressures from green coffee inflation present notable concerns.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA tripled in 2024, demonstrating strong financial performance and operational efficiency improvements.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin improved by 950 basis points to 41.2% in 2024, driven by supply chain productivity and reduced transformation costs.
Distribution Growth and Market Share Gains
Black Rifle Coffee's distribution in packaged coffee at grocery increased by 28 points to 45% ACV over the year, with total distribution reaching 49% by Q4.
Energy Drink Launch
Black Rifle Energy launched with a reach of 17% ACV within the first month, with plans for significant growth in 2025 supported by a partnership with Keurig Dr Pepper.
Ready-to-Drink Coffee Market Position
Black Rifle Coffee became the #3 brand in the Ready-to-Drink coffee category, growing sales by 0.5% despite an overall category decline.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Overall revenue declined by 1% in 2024 compared to 2023, with specific declines in Outpost and direct-to-consumer segments.
Direct-to-Consumer Segment Challenges
The direct-to-consumer segment saw a 14% revenue decline in 2024, impacted by shifting consumer preferences and reduced marketing focus.
Green Coffee Inflation Impact
Green coffee input costs are expected to be 35% higher in 2025, impacting gross margin by 2.5 percentage points.
Fourth Quarter Revenue Decline
Fourth quarter revenue declined by 12% year-over-year, primarily due to RTD inventory depletion and softness in the coffee and RTD categories.
Company Guidance
During the Black Rifle Coffee Company's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting a focus on brand awareness, distribution expansion, and efficient capital deployment. For 2024, Black Rifle reported significant improvements, with adjusted EBITDA tripling and gross margin improving by 9.5 percentage points. Distribution growth was notable, with ACV in packaged coffee at grocery increasing by 28 points to 45%. Looking ahead, the company expects 2025 revenue to range between $395 million and $425 million, with gross margins between 37% to 39%, partially impacted by a 2.5 percentage point headwind from green coffee inflation. They also anticipate adjusted EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million. The Energy launch, expected to significantly contribute to growth, already achieved a 17% ACV and aims for a 20% to 30% ACV by year-end. The company’s wholesale segment is anticipated to drive growth, with a focus on expanding shelf presence and improving operational efficiencies.

BRC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BRC faces significant financial challenges. Despite a reasonable gross profit margin, the company struggles with profitability and cash flow generation. High leverage and low equity ratio add to financial risks, necessitating strategic initiatives to improve operational efficiency and strengthen the balance sheet for better financial stability.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
The income statement reveals mixed trends. While total revenue has shown some fluctuations, the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a slight decline compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is fairly healthy at 39.54%. However, the company has been struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -2.96% in 2024 and further deterioration to -2.96% in the TTM data. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
The balance sheet presents a challenging picture with a high debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting significant leverage at 2.97 in the TTM. The return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is low at 5.01%, indicating heavy reliance on liabilities for asset financing. These factors suggest financial instability and potential risk if leverage is not managed effectively.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
The cash flow analysis shows a concerning trend in free cash flow, which has been negative in the TTM, indicating issues in generating cash from operating activities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in sustaining positive cash flows after capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue383.07M391.49M395.62M301.31M233.10M163.91M
Gross Profit151.46M161.17M125.45M99.18M89.69M69.41M
EBITDA-37.00K12.78M-42.94M-64.11M-9.48M7.02M
Net Income-11.35M-2.95M-16.75M-82.91M-13.85M4.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets222.89M227.38M235.78M225.33M87.08M72.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.90M6.81M12.45M38.99M18.33M35.23M
Total Debt33.22M96.70M109.24M70.30M35.00M14.23M
Total Liabilities178.71M177.89M189.27M129.40M236.57M175.42M
Stockholders Equity11.17M13.17M13.27M25.80M-149.49M-102.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.87M2.64M-52.19M-146.59M-26.98M1.79M
Operating Cash Flow2.25M11.31M-24.97M-116.19M-7.69M11.55M
Investing Cash Flow-6.21M-7.71M-21.51M-30.40M-19.29M-9.76M
Financing Cash Flow2.40M-10.70M21.40M167.25M9.68M28.81M

BRC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.32
Price Trends
50DMA
1.80
Negative
100DMA
2.03
Negative
200DMA
2.58
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.15
Positive
RSI
32.18
Neutral
STOCH
24.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.51, below the 50-day MA of 1.80, and below the 200-day MA of 2.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRCC.

BRC Risk Analysis

BRC disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Changes in U.S. trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs, including punitive and retaliatory tariffs, specifically with respect to countries where we source our high-quality coffee beans, or tariffs that specifically target coffee beans, may adversely impact our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Q4, 2024

BRC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$267.72M27.096.42%2.00%-37.09%
73
Outperform
$375.67M37.2114.73%12.84%-22.88%
66
Neutral
$1.94B17.252.40%5.45%-0.31%5.93%
63
Neutral
$689.97M-5.95%2.44%91.41%
BGBGS
47
Neutral
$350.31M-32.48%17.31%-7.06%-83.82%
47
Neutral
$563.12M-23.58%2.38%-30.88%
40
Neutral
$284.83M-49.54%-6.69%55.07%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BRCC
BRC
1.32
-4.79
-78.40%
BGS
B&G Foods
4.39
-2.97
-40.35%
LWAY
Lifeway Foods
24.71
12.41
100.89%
NATR
Nature's Sunshine Products
14.79
-0.21
-1.40%
STKL
SunOpta
5.80
0.54
10.27%
WEST
Westrock Coffee
5.95
-4.05
-40.50%

BRC Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
BRC Announces Elimination of Key Executive Position
Neutral
Jun 25, 2025

On June 23, 2025, BRC Inc. announced the elimination of the Chief Technology and Operations Officer position, effective with the departure of Christopher Clark on July 4, 2025. Following his departure, Mr. Clark will receive severance payments, including twelve months of salary and health coverage, and accelerated vesting of certain stock units. This decision reflects a strategic shift in the company’s operational structure, potentially impacting its technological and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
BRC Appoints New CFO to Drive Growth
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

On June 18, 2025, BRC, Inc. announced the appointment of Matthew Amigh as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 7, 2025. Mr. Amigh, a seasoned financial executive with extensive experience in the consumer-packaged goods industry, will play a crucial role in driving BRCC’s profitable growth and delivering long-term shareholder value. His previous roles include CFO positions at Ethos Pet Nutrition and Bulletproof 360, Inc., where he led significant financial turnarounds and strategic exits. This appointment is expected to enhance BRCC’s operational efficiency and execution towards its long-term vision.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Legal Proceedings
BRC Settles Lawsuit with Alta Partners
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 20, 2025, BRC Inc. entered into a settlement agreement with Alta Partners, LLC, resolving a lawsuit filed by Alta. The lawsuit, which was filed in the Southern District of New York, alleged breach of contract and sought damages due to BRC’s refusal to allow Alta to exercise warrants in 2022. As part of the settlement, Alta will pay BRC $1,000,000, and BRC will issue 2,300,100 shares of its Class A common stock to Alta.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
BRC Inc. Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting and Elections
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

On May 28, 2025, BRC Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where a quorum of 119,977,998 shares was represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected Evan Hafer, Steven Taslitz, and Glenn Welling as Class III directors until 2028 and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
BRC Expands Board with New Director Appointments
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

On April 11, 2025, BRC Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from seven to nine members, appointing Stephen Kadenacy and Sean Moriarty as Class II directors until the 2027 annual meeting. Kadenacy, the current CFO, will continue in his role until a successor is appointed. Moriarty, as a non-employee director, opted to receive his $50,000 annual compensation in restricted stock units, with additional RSUs granted under the company’s incentive plan. This strategic board expansion reflects BRC’s commitment to strengthening its governance structure.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 21, 2025