BRC (BRCC) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

297 Followers

Top Page

BRC

(NYSE:BRCC)

Rating:50Neutral

Price Target:

$1.50

▲(4.17% Upside)

The overall stock score of 50 reflects a company with significant growth potential but facing substantial financial and operational challenges. The most significant factor is the financial performance, which is currently weak due to high leverage and negative margins. Technical analysis and valuation also present concerns, while the earnings call and corporate events provide some positive outlooks.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

Fourth-quarter EBITDA of $10 million were above our estimate of $7 million.

Sales Growth

Second-quarter sales increased 6.5%, driven primarily by growth in the wholesale segment.

Wholesale Performance

Wholesale sales grew 14%, driven by strong performance of Black Rifle Energy, as well as new distribution gains and expanded shelf presence in grocery and mass.

Negative Factors

Earnings Quality

Earnings quality was mixed, with sales above, gross margin below, and the operating expense ratio higher than forecast.

Guidance Concerns

Management provided initial 2025 EBITDA guidance below our forecast.

Wholesale Challenges

Headline wholesale sales fell 9%.

BRC (BRCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$357.44M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.09M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.70

Revenue Growth-4.59%

EPS Growth-19.09%

CountryUS

Employees551

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength67

IndustryPackaged Foods

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.07

Shares Outstanding113,820,786

10 Day Avg. Volume1,105,680

30 Day Avg. Volume1,090,749

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.64

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.56

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-15.21

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$1.92

Price Target Upside33.33% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlack Rifle Coffee Company (BRCC) is a veteran-owned coffee company that primarily sells high-quality coffee products through direct-to-consumer channels and retail partnerships. The company is known for its strong brand identity that resonates with military veterans and conservative consumers, offering a range of coffees, apparel, and accessories. BRCC seeks to support veterans, active-duty military, and first responders through its products and philanthropic efforts.

How the Company Makes MoneyBlack Rifle Coffee Company generates revenue through the sale of coffee products, including whole bean and ground coffee, coffee pods, and ready-to-drink beverages. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model via its website, which is a significant revenue stream, allowing customers to purchase products through one-time purchases or subscription services. Additionally, BRCC sells its products through retail partnerships with major retailers, expanding its market reach. The company also generates income from branded merchandise, such as apparel and accessories, which complements its core coffee offerings. BRCC's unique brand positioning and strong community engagement help maintain customer loyalty and drive sales.

BRC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -12.73%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of significant successes in sales growth, distribution expansion, and product launches, alongside challenges in gross margin and increased operational costs. The company's ability to outperform the market and expand its footprint, coupled with its community engagement initiatives, were offset by pressures from costs and legal expenses, making the overall sentiment balanced.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Sales Growth

Black Rifle Coffee Company significantly outperformed the U.S. coffee category with 32% sales growth and a 29% increase in unit volume, compared to the category's 9.6% sales growth and 1% decline in units.

Expansion in Distribution

ACV in grocery increased by 19 percentage points year-over-year to 46.5%, while total ACV across all tracked channels rose 15 points to 56.6%. The company also expanded national distribution with a leading rural lifestyle retailer.

RTD Coffee Outperformance

The ready-to-drink coffee business delivered 7% sales growth, with unit volume up 9% in a category that declined 4% and category units fell 6%.

Successful Launch of Black Rifle Energy

Black Rifle Energy was launched in January and by the end of Q2 was available in over 15,000 retail locations, reaching 23% ACV.

Direct-to-Consumer Channel Improvement

DTC revenue was 7.8% lower year-over-year, but after adjusting for a $2.4 million loyalty reserve benefit recognized in the prior year, sales in the channel were slightly positive.

Community Engagement and Brand Building

The company deepened engagement with service members, veterans, first responders, and their families, enhancing brand awareness and authenticity.

Negative Updates

Gross Margin Decline

Gross margin was 33.9% in Q2, reflecting a 790 basis point reduction compared to the prior year, primarily driven by green coffee inflation and trade and pricing impacts.

DTC Revenue Decline and Stabilization

Although showing signs of stabilization, direct-to-consumer revenue was still 8% lower in the second quarter compared to the previous year.

Legal and Depreciation Costs

General and administrative expenses increased 31% primarily due to legal costs and higher depreciation tied to capitalized software.

Tariff-Related Cost Pressures

Tariff-related cost pressures were incremental to original expectations on gross margin and adjusted EBITDA.

Company Guidance

During the Black Rifle Coffee Company's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics underpinning its guidance for the year. CEO Christopher Mondzelewski highlighted a 32% sales growth on a 29% increase in unit volume, significantly outperforming the U.S. coffee category's 9.6% sales growth and 1% decline in units. The company achieved a year-over-year increase of 19 percentage points in grocery ACV, reaching 46.5%, while total ACV across all tracked channels rose by 15 points to 56.6%. In the ready-to-drink segment, Black Rifle reported 7% sales growth in a category that declined by 4%, with unit volume up by 9% while category units fell by 6%. The energy drinks segment demonstrated promising expansion, reaching 23% ACV in over 15,000 retail locations by the end of the second quarter. Financially, the company maintains its full-year revenue guidance of $395 million to $425 million and expects full-year gross margins between 35% and 37%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains at $20 million to $30 million, with an anticipated step-up in revenue and EBITDA in the second half of the year.

BRC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BRC faces challenges in profitability and leverage, with high debt levels and negative margins. While revenue growth and free cash flow improvements are positive signs, the company needs to address operational inefficiencies and manage its debt to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Neutral

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced revenue growth in recent periods, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.52%. However, profitability remains a concern with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins, indicating ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin has decreased from previous periods, suggesting pressure on cost management.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a TTM debt-to-equity ratio of 3.26, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting limited equity buffer against liabilities.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals improvement in free cash flow growth, with a significant increase in TTM. However, operating cash flow remains negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to reported losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	388.89M	391.49M	395.62M	301.31M	233.10M	163.91M
Gross Profit	146.38M	161.17M	125.45M	99.18M	89.69M	69.41M
EBITDA	-15.01M	13.90M	-42.94M	-64.11M	-9.48M	7.02M
Net Income	-20.42M	-2.95M	-16.75M	-82.91M	-13.85M	4.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	225.25M	227.38M	235.78M	225.33M	87.08M	72.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.30M	6.81M	12.45M	38.99M	18.33M	35.23M
Total Debt	32.90M	96.70M	109.24M	70.30M	35.00M	14.23M
Total Liabilities	189.60M	177.89M	189.27M	129.40M	236.57M	175.42M
Stockholders Equity	10.10M	13.17M	13.27M	25.80M	-149.49M	-102.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.31M	2.64M	-52.19M	-146.59M	-26.98M	1.79M
Operating Cash Flow	-3.37M	11.31M	-24.97M	-116.19M	-7.69M	11.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.88M	-7.71M	-21.51M	-30.40M	-19.29M	-9.76M
Financing Cash Flow	3.60M	-10.70M	21.40M	167.25M	9.68M	28.81M

BRC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1.44

Price Trends

50DMA

1.58

Negative

100DMA

1.80

Negative

200DMA

2.31

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.05

Positive

RSI

49.01

Neutral

STOCH

42.11

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.68, below the 50-day MA of 1.58, and below the 200-day MA of 2.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRCC.

BRC Risk Analysis

BRC disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BRC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LWAY	80 Outperform	$448.50M	42.69	14.46%	―	9.19%	-23.91%
NATR	72 Outperform	$287.11M	22.47	9.15%	―	4.33%	-6.33%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$21.01B	14.53	-7.26%	3.13%	3.36%	-7.91%
STKL	59 Neutral	$752.85M	―	-1.34%	―	10.90%	96.02%
BRCC	50 Neutral	$357.44M	―	-89.88%	―	-4.59%	-19.09%
WEST	49 Neutral	$625.07M	―	-27.07%	―	13.05%	-72.80%
BGS	48 Neutral	$332.82M	―	-35.36%	17.63%	-6.91%	-83.51%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BRCC

BRC

1.58

-2.32

-59.49%

BGS

B&G Foods

4.31

-3.16

-42.30%

LWAY

Lifeway Foods

30.19

11.19

58.89%

NATR

Nature's Sunshine Products

16.76

3.60

27.36%

STKL

SunOpta

6.30

0.14

2.27%

WEST

Westrock Coffee

6.50

-2.60

-28.57%

BRC Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures

BRC Reaffirms Annual Guidance for 2025

Positive

Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, BRC Inc. reaffirmed its annual guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, which was initially provided in its earnings release for the first quarter of 2025 on May 5, 2025. This announcement underscores the company’s confidence in its financial performance and stability for the remainder of the year, potentially reassuring stakeholders and investors about its market position.