BRC (BRCC)
NYSE:BRCC
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BRC
(NYSE:BRCC)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$0.86
▲(7.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, margin compression, and negative 2025 operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by improved leverage and constructive 2026 guidance targeting higher EBITDA and a return to cash-flow generation, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no indicated dividend.
Positive Factors
Packaged coffee growth and market share gains
Sustained outperformance in packaged coffee demonstrates scalable brand strength and demand elasticity. Market-share gains and above-category velocity indicate durable retail acceptance and pricing power that can support improved revenue mix and margins as distribution and shelf presence continue to scale.
Negative Factors
Gross margin compression from coffee inflation and tariffs
Large input-cost driven margin erosion signals structural vulnerability to commodity cycles and policy-driven tariffs. If coffee prices or tariff impacts persist, sustaining prior margin levels will require persistent pricing, mix shifts, or cost saves—each of which can be slow or demand-sensitive, pressuring medium-term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Packaged coffee growth and market share gains
Sustained outperformance in packaged coffee demonstrates scalable brand strength and demand elasticity. Market-share gains and above-category velocity indicate durable retail acceptance and pricing power that can support improved revenue mix and margins as distribution and shelf presence continue to scale.
Read all positive factors
BRC (BRCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$200.28M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)769.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-3.42%
EPS Growth-85.49%
CountryUS
Employees551
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding115,208,120
10 Day Avg. Volume553,469
30 Day Avg. Volume769,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)0.27
P/FCF Ratio-7.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-18.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.50Price Target Upside212.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$428.24M
BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BRC Inc., through its subsidiaries, purchases, roasts, and sells coffee, coffee accessories, and branded apparel. The company also produces media content; podcasts; and digital and print journals, as well as sells coffee brewing equipment, and out...
How the Company Makes Money
BRC Inc. generates revenue primarily by selling coffee and coffee-related products across multiple channels. A key revenue stream is direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, where customers purchase products through the company’s owned online platforms and...
BRC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business units, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where strategic focus may be needed.
Breaks down revenue across different business units, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where strategic focus may be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBRC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful operating momentum—particularly in packaged coffee growth, distribution expansion, wholesale strength, debt reduction and clear 2026 guidance—with significant near-term margin pressure and a materially lower 2025 EBITDA driven by coffee cost inflation, tariffs and one-time charges. Management highlighted operational improvements (Q4 EBITDA nearly flat) and a path to margin recovery, but the 2025 profitability impact and channel pressure in RTD/C-stores are notable risks.Positive Updates
Packaged Coffee Strong Growth and Market Share Gains
Packaged coffee grew 31.1% for the year and 34% in the fourth quarter versus ~13% category growth; units were up more than 22% in 2025. National market share reached 3.3% in bagged coffee (up 60 basis points year-over-year) and 2.2% in pods (up 40 basis points). Velocity in grocery reached parity with the overall bagged coffee category despite pricing approximately 40% above the category average.
Negative Updates
Significant Gross Margin Compression
Gross margins declined 650 basis points for the full year and 610 basis points in the fourth quarter (Q4 gross margin 32.1%). Coffee inflation and tariffs were the largest headwinds, contributing roughly 420 basis points of margin pressure in Q4 and ~350 basis points for the full year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Packaged Coffee Strong Growth and Market Share Gains
Packaged coffee grew 31.1% for the year and 34% in the fourth quarter versus ~13% category growth; units were up more than 22% in 2025. National market share reached 3.3% in bagged coffee (up 60 basis points year-over-year) and 2.2% in pods (up 40 basis points). Velocity in grocery reached parity with the overall bagged coffee category despite pricing approximately 40% above the category average.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue of at least +7% to approximately $425,000,000 (with Q1 growth of at least +10%), full‑year gross margins of 33%–36% (versus 34.6% in 2025), and at least 30% EBITDA growth versus 2025’s $21.4M (implying EBITDA ≥ ~$27.8M); they expect first‑half EBITDA to represent roughly one quarter to one third of the full year (vs. ~15% in 1H/2025) with EBITDA second‑half weighted, operating expenses to decline year‑over‑year (marketing to grow in line with sales, labor muted), capex roughly in line with the prior year, and to be cash‑flow generative after 2025 operating cash use of ~ $10M (≈ $9M due to working‑capital normalization). Balance‑sheet metrics cited include ~$39M debt outstanding (down >$30M in 2025), total liquidity >$50M, and net‑debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~1.8x (≈1.4x on 2026 guidance). The outlook is grounded in confirmed distribution gains, pricing, productivity and mix improvements and does not assume incremental, unconfirmed distribution wins, while acknowledging residual coffee cost and tariff headwinds early in 2026.BRC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 398.26M | 391.49M | 395.62M | 301.31M | 233.10M |
| Gross Profit | 137.95M | 161.17M | 125.45M | 99.18M | 89.69M |
| EBITDA | -12.40M | 13.90M | -42.94M | -64.11M | -9.48M |
| Net Income | -11.91M | -2.95M | -16.75M | -82.91M | -13.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 209.24M | 227.38M | 235.78M | 225.33M | 87.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.33M | 6.81M | 12.45M | 38.99M | 18.33M |
| Total Debt | 29.72M | 96.70M | 109.24M | 70.30M | 35.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 141.23M | 177.89M | 189.27M | 129.40M | 236.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 45.65M | 13.17M | 13.27M | 25.80M | -149.49M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -13.47M | 2.64M | -52.19M | -146.59M | -26.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.81M | 11.31M | -24.97M | -116.19M | -7.69M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.42M | -7.71M | -21.51M | -30.40M | -19.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.91M | -10.70M | 21.40M | 167.25M | 9.68M |
BRC Technical Analysis
Neutral
0.80
Price Trends
0.79
Positive
0.98
Negative
1.25
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
48.95
Neutral
49.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.84, above the 50-day MA of 0.79, and below the 200-day MA of 1.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BRCC.
BRC Risk Analysis
BRC disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BRC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $24.43M | 2.76 | 6.84% | ― | 17.92% | 64.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.48B | 5.80 | -36.19% | ― | -0.78% | 265.56% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
50 Neutral | $27.31M | -3.33 | -14.36% | ― | 17.73% | -34.71% | |
50 Neutral | $455.33M | ― | -30.31% | ― | 28.89% | -13.96% | |
45 Neutral | $200.28M | -9.91 | -41.47% | ― | -3.42% | -85.49% | |
44 Neutral | $27.65M | -1.63 | -48.26% | ― | -1.58% | -78.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
BRCC
BRC
0.81
-1.19
-59.75%
JVA
Coffee Holding Co
4.28
1.51
54.74%
FARM
Farmer Brothers Company
1.26
-0.51
-28.81%
HLF
Herbalife
14.27
7.21
102.12%
LSF
Laird Superfood
2.50
-2.28
-47.70%
WEST
Westrock Coffee
4.70
-0.85
-15.32%
BRC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BRC Reaffirms 2026 Outlook After Unauthorized Director Remarks
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 22, 2026, BRC Inc. disclosed that a board member, speaking without authorization on the Forged In America podcast, informally suggested the company would “probably” generate about $450 million in revenue and discussed potentia...
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BRC Faces NYSE Non-Compliance Notice on Share Price
Negative
Feb 13, 2026
On February 11, 2026, BRC Inc., which operates as Black Rifle Coffee Company, was notified by the New York Stock Exchange that the average closing price of its Class A common stock had fallen below the $1.00 minimum over the preceding 30 trading d...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Black Rifle Coffee Affirms 2025 Outlook, Notes Impairment Charge
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Black Rifle Coffee Company announced preliminary, unaudited results for its fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, indicating it expects to meet its prior guidance of at least $395 million in revenue and at least $20 million in ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.