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BRC (BRCC)
NYSE:BRCC
US Market

BRC (BRCC) AI Stock Analysis

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BRCC

BRC

(NYSE:BRCC)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$0.95
▼(-2.47% Downside)
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial fundamentals (profitability, leverage, and cash flow) and a bearish technical trend with the stock below key moving averages. Offsetting this, earnings commentary and recent updates support continued revenue growth and reiterated guidance, but margin and DTC pressures keep the outlook mixed.
Positive Factors
Outsize Revenue Growth
Sustained ~37% YoY sales growth vs. category indicates strong product-market fit and share gains. Durable top-line expansion supports scale economies, funds distribution and RTD expansion, and provides a foundation to improve unit economics and long-term profitability.
Expanded Retail Distribution
Broader retail ACV meaningfully increases shelf presence and wholesale reach, diversifying revenue beyond DTC. Durable distribution gains raise long-term revenue visibility, enable higher shipment volumes, and strengthen bargaining power with retailers, aiding sustainable growth of packaged and RTD lines.
Explicit multi-year targets and profitability roadmap
Management has set multi-year revenue CAGR and margin targets, signaling strategic focus on scale and margin improvement toward ~40% gross margin. Clear targets improve resource allocation, accountability, and investment planning—key for converting growth into durable, profitable operations.
Negative Factors
Negative Profitability Margins
Persistent negative net and EBIT margins indicate the business has not yet converted sales into sustainable earnings. Structural profitability shortfalls limit reinvestment capacity, strain returns to shareholders, and increase sensitivity to commodity and trade-cost shocks unless unit margins improve.
Weak Cash Flow and Negative FCF Trends
Ongoing negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion reduce the firm's ability to fund store rollouts, inventory for wholesale/RTD, or deleveraging from operations. Reliance on external financing raises execution risk and could constrain strategic investments over the medium term.
Elevated Leverage and Low Equity Base
A still-elevated debt load and low equity ratio limit financial flexibility and raise fixed-cost pressure from interest. This structural leverage makes the company more vulnerable to margin compression or demand shocks and heightens the need for sustained cash generation to de-risk the balance sheet.

BRC (BRCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BRC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBRC Inc., through its subsidiaries, purchases, roasts, and sells coffee, coffee accessories, and branded apparel. The company also produces media content; podcasts; and digital and print journals, as well as sells coffee brewing equipment, and outdoor and lifestyle gear. It supports active military, veterans, and first responders. The company offers its products through convenience, grocery, drug, and mass merchandise stores; outdoor, do it yourself, and lifestyle retailers; and company operated and franchised Black Rifle Coffee retail coffee shop locations, as well as through e-commerce. BRC Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in Salt Lake City, Utah.
How the Company Makes MoneyBRC generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by selling its coffee products directly to consumers via its e-commerce platform and through retail partnerships. The company offers subscriptions for regular deliveries, which provides a steady income stream. Additionally, BRC has established partnerships with various military organizations and events, allowing for promotional collaborations that further enhance brand visibility and sales. The brand's focus on community engagement and veteran support also fosters customer loyalty, driving repeat purchases and enhancing overall revenue.

BRC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

BRC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong sales growth, successful retail expansion, and initiatives to improve customer experience and community support. However, challenges such as a decline in the Direct-to-Consumer segment, a decrease in gross margins, and guidance towards the lower end due to external pressures were also noted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Sales Growth
Black Rifle Coffee Company outperformed the market with sales up 36.7% year-over-year, nearly triple the U.S. coffee category's growth rate of 13.2%.
Expansion in Retail Distribution
ACV in grocery increased by 6 points year-over-year to 48%, and total ACV across all tracked channels increased by 9 points to 54%.
Improved Customer Experience
Enhancements in the Direct-to-Consumer segment, including website and mobile updates, improved navigation and checkout speed, and added functionality in the subscription platform.
Resilient Ready-to-Drink Coffee Performance
While the Ready-to-Drink coffee category sales declined 3.1%, Black Rifle's performance was down just 0.6%, with grocery sales growing by 18%.
Community and Veteran Support
Initiatives to forgive up to $25 million in medical debt for veterans, reflecting the company's commitment to its mission.
Negative Updates
Direct-to-Consumer Segment Decline
Sales in the Direct-to-Consumer segment declined 4% year-over-year in the third quarter.
Gross Margin Decline
Gross margin decreased by 520 basis points to 36.9%, primarily due to increased trade investment, green coffee inflation, and tariffs.
Guidance Towards Lower End
The company expects to finish the year towards the lower end of its guidance range, with continued pressures from commodity inflation and tariffs.
Company Guidance
During the Black Rifle Coffee Company's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. They expect to achieve at least $395 million in revenue, a gross margin of at least 35%, and adjusted EBITDA of at least $20 million for the full year. This guidance suggests a cautious outlook, with expectations towards the lower end of their previously communicated ranges. The company also highlighted its strong performance in the U.S. coffee category, with sales up 36.7% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the category's growth rate of 13.2%. Black Rifle Coffee's wholesale segment grew by 5%, with a 9% increase when adjusted for nonrecurring revenue in the prior year. Their direct-to-consumer sales declined by 4% year-over-year in Q3, but adjusted results were slightly positive when accounting for previous benefits and timing shifts. The company remains confident in its long-term guidance, projecting a 10% to 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue through 2027, aiming to approach a 40% gross margin by then.

BRC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BRCC faces significant financial challenges. Despite strong revenue growth, profitability and cash flow metrics are concerning, with high leverage and negative returns on equity. The company needs to focus on improving cost management and cash flow generation to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company shows a mixed performance in its income statement. While there is a significant revenue growth in the TTM period, the company struggles with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, reflecting potential cost management issues.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that has improved but remains elevated. The return on equity is negative, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a concerning trend with negative free cash flow growth and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio. Although there is some improvement in free cash flow to net income ratio, the overall cash flow position remains weak.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue391.40M391.49M395.62M301.31M233.10M163.91M
Gross Profit142.18M161.17M125.45M99.18M89.69M69.41M
EBITDA-10.12M13.90M-42.94M-64.11M-9.48M7.02M
Net Income-11.19M-2.95M-16.75M-82.91M-13.85M4.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets222.40M227.38M235.78M225.33M87.08M72.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.48M6.81M12.45M38.99M18.33M35.23M
Total Debt62.93M96.70M109.24M70.30M35.00M14.23M
Total Liabilities148.21M177.89M189.27M129.40M236.57M175.42M
Stockholders Equity47.99M13.17M13.27M25.80M-149.49M-102.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.56M2.64M-52.19M-146.59M-26.98M1.79M
Operating Cash Flow1.07M11.31M-24.97M-116.19M-7.69M11.55M
Investing Cash Flow-4.48M-7.71M-21.51M-30.40M-19.29M-9.76M
Financing Cash Flow5.24M-10.70M21.40M167.25M9.68M28.81M

BRC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.97
Price Trends
50DMA
1.20
Negative
100DMA
1.35
Negative
200DMA
1.56
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
32.70
Neutral
STOCH
31.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.12, below the 50-day MA of 1.20, and below the 200-day MA of 1.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRCC.

BRC Risk Analysis

BRC disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BRC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BRC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$1.64B5.08-0.78%265.56%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
53
Neutral
$22.38M12.077.17%17.92%64.96%
49
Neutral
$432.81M-4.59-27.64%28.89%-13.96%
48
Neutral
$28.96M-15.08-14.63%17.73%-34.71%
45
Neutral
$241.13M-6.90-35.78%-3.42%-85.49%
45
Neutral
$33.05M-2.43-33.46%-1.58%-78.08%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BRCC
BRC
0.97
-2.16
-69.01%
JVA
Coffee Holding Co
3.92
0.15
3.98%
FARM
Farmer Brothers Company
1.53
-0.11
-6.71%
HLF
Herbalife
15.89
9.48
147.89%
LSF
Laird Superfood
2.71
-4.72
-63.53%
WEST
Westrock Coffee
4.47
-1.53
-25.50%

BRC Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Black Rifle Coffee Affirms 2025 Outlook, Notes Impairment Charge
Positive
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Black Rifle Coffee Company announced preliminary, unaudited results for its fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, indicating it expects to meet its prior guidance of at least $395 million in revenue and at least $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA. The company expects to record a non-cash impairment charge of approximately $1.4 million tied to raw materials made unusable by a formulation change, which is projected to trim fiscal 2025 gross margin to about 34.5%–34.7% but does not reflect underlying consumer demand or operating performance. Also on January 13, 2026, the company presented at the 28th Annual ICR Conference, highlighting its multi-year growth opportunities in large beverage categories and its profitability goals, underscoring a focus on scaling its brand and improving financial performance despite the modest margin impact from the impairment.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Sell with a $0.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
BRC Engages Investors in Strategic Roadshow
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, BRC Inc.’s senior management will engage with investors during a non-deal roadshow, using an investor presentation to outline the company’s strategic initiatives and market positioning. The presentation highlights potential risks and uncertainties in the industry, emphasizing the company’s challenges in managing growth, competition, and maintaining brand reputation, which could impact its operations and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRCC) stock is a Buy with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BRC stock, see the BRCC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 15, 2026