bpost SA (BPOSY) AI Stock Analysis

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bpost SA

(OTC:BPOSY)

Rating:54Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▼(-1.19%Downside)

bpost SA's stock score is primarily driven by financial performance challenges due to negative profitability and high leverage. Despite these issues, the stock's positive technical momentum provides some support. However, the valuation is a notable risk given the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield.

bpost SA (BPOSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$506.20M

Dividend Yield3.27%

Average Volume (3M)0.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7

Beta (1Y)0.34

Revenue Growth4.97%

EPS Growth-512.20%

CountryUS

Employees36,527

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength92

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.03

Shares Outstanding200,001,000

10 Day Avg. Volume0

30 Day Avg. Volume0

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.07

Price to Book (P/B)0.53

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio1.53

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.50

Price Target Upside-1.19% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

bpost SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptionbpost SA is a leading postal service provider based in Belgium, primarily engaged in the collection, sorting, transportation, and delivery of letters and parcels. The company operates through several segments, including Mail & Retail Solutions, Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia, and Parcels & Logistics North America. bpost offers comprehensive postal and courier services, as well as value-added solutions such as e-commerce logistics, fulfilment, and supply chain management. With its extensive network and digital platforms, bpost serves a diverse range of clients, including individuals, businesses, and governmental organizations.

How the Company Makes Moneybpost SA generates revenue through a multi-faceted business model centered on its core postal and logistics services. The Mail & Retail Solutions segment is a primary revenue stream, focusing on traditional mail services, direct marketing, and retail offerings, including financial and insurance products through post offices. The Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia and Parcels & Logistics North America segments drive revenue by providing parcel delivery and logistics solutions, capitalizing on the growth in e-commerce. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers to enhance its logistics capabilities. Additionally, bpost leverages its infrastructure to offer fulfilment and supply chain services, increasing its value proposition to business clients. The integration of digital platforms and technology also supports cost efficiency and enhances customer experience, contributing to its earnings.

bpost SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 64.29%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call highlighted strong performances from Staci and growth in Domestic Parcel volumes, but these were overshadowed by significant challenges including revenue declines, a €300 million impairment at Radial U.S., and a substantial reported net loss. The strategic focus on transformation and operational efficiencies offers some positive outlook, yet the immediate financial pressures and market challenges suggest a cautious sentiment.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Staci's Strong Performance

Staci delivered approximately €340 million in revenues and €41 million in EBIT, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 12%, ranking among the highest in the logistics industry. This solid performance aligns with expectations despite a seasonally softer start.

Domestic Parcel Volume Growth

Domestic Parcel volume continued to grow, delivering a solid performance in 2024 with an increase of more than €30 million in revenue, marking a strong uptick compared to the previous year.

Operational Efficiency at Radial U.S.

Radial U.S. achieved a record-high peak period variable contribution margin rate, with efficiency gains delivering an impact of approximately $18 million compared to last year.

3PL Europe Growth

Constant perimeter Radial and Active Ants sales were up 14.6% year-over-year, driven by customer onboarding and upselling activities targeting existing customers.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline Excluding Staci

Excluding Staci’s strategic contribution, revenues declined approximately €270 million, driven by a reduction of €50 million in Press revenues and a decline of more than €210 million in Radial U.S. revenues.

Significant Impairment at Radial U.S.

An impairment of €300 million was recognized on Radial U.S., bringing the book value from €912 million to €612 million, due to customer departures and a challenging market environment.

Reported Group Net Loss

The reported Group net result stands at minus €209 million, leading the Board of Directors to recommend not distributing a dividend this year.

Impact of Press Revenue Decline

Press revenues declined by €50 million following new contracts, directly impacting EBIT, and contributing to a €45 million decrease in Belgium's EBIT.

Challenges in North America

Topline pressure at Radial and Landmark in North America was partly offset by productivity gains, but the departure of several significant customers impacted future growth projections.

Company Guidance

In the bpost Group's fourth-quarter 2024 analyst call, the company reported a total operating income exceeding €4.3 billion for the year, with an adjusted EBIT of €224.9 million, aligning with the upper end of the guidance range of €205 million to €230 million. The EBIT margin was reported at 5.2%. The logistics company Staci contributed significantly, delivering €340 million in revenues and €41 million in EBIT, with a 12% margin. However, excluding Staci, bpost's revenues declined by approximately €270 million, with €50 million lost from Press revenues and over €210 million from Radial U.S. revenues. Domestic Parcel volume grew, adding over €30 million in revenue, but overall EBIT declined by around €65 million year-over-year. Belgium's EBIT dropped by €45 million, and Radial faced an impairment of €300 million, reducing its book value from €912 million to €612 million. Consequently, the Group's reported net result was minus €209 million, leading to the Board's recommendation not to distribute a dividend. The company also outlined strategic shifts focusing on SMEs and new market segments, aiming to become a digital expert in parcel-size logistics across North America and Europe.

bpost SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company faces financial challenges with declining profitability and increased leverage, as evidenced by the negative net profit margin and high debt-to-equity ratio. However, strong cash flow generation provides some stability.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from the previous year, indicating increased cost pressures. Additionally, the net profit margin turned negative, driven by a substantial net loss. Revenue growth rate is low, suggesting challenges in driving top-line growth. The negative EBIT margin further highlights operational inefficiencies. Despite these issues, the EBITDA margin remains positive, providing some operational leverage.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet presents concerns with a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio has decreased, reflecting a lower proportion of equity financing. Return on equity turned negative, impacted by the net loss. These factors suggest financial instability and potential liquidity risks, though the company maintains a reasonable level of cash and short-term investments.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals strengths in operating cash flow, which exceeds net income, indicating effective cash generation despite poor profitability. The free cash flow growth rate is strong, supported by controlled capital expenditures. However, high financing cash flows imply reliance on external funding, which could be a concern if sustained.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.45B	4.33B	4.26B	4.37B	4.28B	4.12B
Gross Profit	198.20M	220.00M	688.30M	550.90M	570.00M	430.40M
EBITDA	530.00M	551.30M	475.20M	608.30M	622.50M	523.80M
Net Income	-252.80M	-205.10M	65.70M	232.50M	250.90M	-19.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.19B	5.35B	4.12B	4.36B	4.14B	3.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	781.40M	747.40M	870.60M	1.05B	907.50M	948.10M
Total Debt	2.56B	2.55B	1.29B	1.49B	1.38B	1.44B
Total Liabilities	4.37B	4.49B	3.09B	3.29B	3.26B	3.29B
Stockholders Equity	818.20M	859.50M	1.03B	1.07B	884.80M	582.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	264.60M	388.30M	221.50M	258.00M	226.10M	423.60M
Operating Cash Flow	423.30M	534.90M	376.20M	422.40M	398.20M	571.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-1.42B	-152.40M	-19.20M	-145.00M	-127.60M
Financing Cash Flow	733.50M	758.60M	-428.70M	-262.10M	-309.10M	-138.80M

bpost SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price2.53

Price Trends

50DMA

2.15

Positive

100DMA

1.92

Positive

200DMA

2.08

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.09

Positive

RSI

59.21

Neutral

STOCH

28.68

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOSY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.50, above the 50-day MA of 2.15, and above the 200-day MA of 2.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOSY.

bpost SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDX	75 Outperform	$56.67B	14.18	14.69%	2.43%	0.27%	―
EXPD	73 Outperform	$16.06B	19.80	37.70%	1.29%	24.07%	27.40%
HUBG	69 Neutral	$2.24B	21.46	6.35%	1.36%	-4.63%	-18.94%
JBHT	69 Neutral	$15.14B	28.08	13.97%	1.14%	-3.82%	-12.80%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.89B	15.56	5.22%	1.87%	3.09%	-26.84%
PBI	61 Neutral	$2.01B	43.05	35.20%	2.53%	-29.43%	―
BPOSY	54 Neutral	$506.20M	4.73	-26.39%	3.27%	4.97%	-512.20%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BPOSY

bpost SA

2.51

-0.44

-14.92%

EXPD

Expeditors International

115.76

-2.60

-2.20%

FDX

FedEx

236.06

-56.54

-19.32%

HUBG

Hub Group

35.65

-8.27

-18.83%

JBHT

JB Hunt

153.57

-10.83

-6.59%

PBI

Pitney Bowes

11.01

4.48

68.61%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 09, 2025