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bpost SA
(OTC:BPOSY)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-13.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (profitability deterioration and high leverage) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The main support comes from resilient cash generation, but the latest earnings call added pressure due to the lowered FY26 EBIT guidance and strike/structural demand headwinds, while valuation is not clearly attractive given losses and missing dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Positive operating and free cash flow show that the network continues converting activity into cash despite weak earnings. This provides funding for lockers, fleet renewal and logistics capacity, although cash generation must remain durable to offset leverage.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Negative Returns
High leverage alongside negative returns reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk. It also limits the company’s ability to rebuild equity organically, making sustained operational improvement important for balance-sheet stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Positive operating and free cash flow show that the network continues converting activity into cash despite weak earnings. This provides funding for lockers, fleet renewal and logistics capacity, although cash generation must remain durable to offset leverage.
Read all positive factors
bpost SA (BPOSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$321.88M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth2.93%
EPS Growth85.73%
CountryUS
Employees33,532
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding200,001,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.57
Price to Sales (P/S)0.09
P/FCF Ratio1.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
bpost SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
bpost SA engages in the provision of postal services. It operates through the following segments: Mail and Retail Solutions (MRS) and Parcels and Logistics (P andL). The MRS segment offers solutions to private and public, self-employed workers, sm...
How the Company Makes Money
bpost makes money primarily by charging customers for the collection, processing, transport, and delivery of mail and parcels, plus fees for logistics and other value‑added services. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Mail & document servi...
bpost SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of operational resilience and strategic progress alongside significant near-term headwinds. Positives include strong Paxon Europe growth and Paxon profitability improvement, tangible progress on the parcel-led transformation (locker rollout, new distribution model, retail partnerships) and underlying cost savings that supported margins. Offsetting these are material negative developments: a costly April strike (estimated ~EUR 25m EBIT impact), accelerating structural mail volumes decline, weaker U.S. 3PL revenues (Radial/Staci) and slower-than-expected commercial ramp-ups at Paxon which together forced management to revise FY26 adjusted EBIT guidance sharply downward to ~EUR 140m. Cash flow was stable ex-financing effects but headline cash outflows and higher financing costs increased pressure. Overall, the positives demonstrate operational momentum and execution of strategic initiatives, but the scale of the strike, structural mail decline and U.S. commercial shortfalls materially weigh on near-term financial outcomes.Positive Updates
Resilient Group Performance and Net Profit Improvement
Group operating income for Q2 was EUR 1.046 billion (YoY -EUR 46 million or -4%). Excluding the strike impact, the year-on-year decline in adjusted EBIT was limited to around EUR 3 million. Adjusted net profit benefited from a EUR 19 million improvement in financial results (mainly FX and higher treasury income).
Negative Updates
April Strike — Material and Increasing EBIT Impact
A 5-week April strike created significant operational disruption. Management's estimate of the strike-related EBIT impact rose to approximately EUR 25–25.5 million (up from ~EUR 15 million initially) due to contractual penalties, compensation and other short-term effects; this materially affected the full-year outlook.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Group Performance and Net Profit Improvement
Group operating income for Q2 was EUR 1.046 billion (YoY -EUR 46 million or -4%). Excluding the strike impact, the year-on-year decline in adjusted EBIT was limited to around EUR 3 million. Adjusted net profit benefited from a EUR 19 million improvement in financial results (mainly FX and higher treasury income).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management revised full‑year 2026 adjusted EBIT to approximately EUR 140 million (previous guidance EUR 165–195m, midpoint EUR 180m), driven by an estimated April strike impact of roughly EUR 25m (up from ~EUR 15m earlier) and slower Paxon commercial ramp (c. EUR 20m EBIT shortfall partly offset by ~EUR 5m of corporate savings, net ~EUR 15m); the strike‑adjusted range is about EUR 140–170m (midpoint ~EUR 155m). They expect low single‑digit parcel growth in H2; key first‑half metrics include group operating income of EUR 1.046bn (Q2), Q2 adjusted EBIT of EUR 29.4m, a c. EUR 100m portion of revenue decline attributable to U.S. 3PL (Radial U.S. + Staci Americas down c. EUR 62m, −14% incl. ~−6% FX), Paxon revenue down ~EUR 40m (−5%), Bpost mail volumes accelerating (~−16.8% in Q2; ~−15% anticipated) causing ~EUR 50m revenue reduction, and a Q2 net cash outflow of EUR 90m with free cash flow broadly stable excluding last year’s bond financing.bpost SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.39B | 4.47B | 4.33B | 4.26B | 4.37B | 4.28B |
| Gross Profit | 67.20M | 402.30M | 220.00M | 688.30M | 550.90M | 570.00M |
| EBITDA | 492.92M | 503.13M | 551.30M | 475.20M | 608.30M | 622.50M |
| Net Income | -37.15M | -40.30M | -205.10M | 65.70M | 232.50M | 250.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.37B | 5.49B | 5.35B | 4.12B | 4.36B | 4.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.27B | 1.26B | 747.40M | 870.60M | 1.05B | 907.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.02B | 3.03B | 2.55B | 1.29B | 1.49B | 1.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.64B | 4.78B | 4.49B | 3.09B | 3.29B | 3.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 730.50M | 708.80M | 859.50M | 1.03B | 1.07B | 884.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 381.46M | 290.85M | 388.30M | 221.50M | 258.00M | 226.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 502.09M | 410.92M | 534.90M | 376.20M | 422.40M | 398.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -139.92M | -137.07M | -1.42B | -152.40M | -19.20M | -145.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -307.28M | 247.43M | 758.60M | -428.70M | -262.10M | -309.10M |
bpost SA Technical Analysis
Negative
1.73
Price Trends
1.79
Negative
1.95
Negative
2.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
28.36
Positive
9.52
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOSY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.70, below the 50-day MA of 1.79, and below the 200-day MA of 2.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.36 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BPOSY.
bpost SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $26.27B | 40.25 | 18.75% | 0.62% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
68 Neutral | $2.46B | 29.24 | 4.81% | 1.04% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
67 Neutral | $24.71B | 61.51 | 21.57% | ― | 7.03% | 16.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.45B | 50.10 | 15.87% | 1.80% | 4.10% | -19.02% | |
60 Neutral | $2.25B | 13.13 | -23.27% | 2.01% | -5.31% | 115.80% | |
44 Neutral | $321.88M | -7.36 | -32.13% | ― | 2.93% | 85.73% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BPOSY
bpost SA
1.56
-1.07
-40.68%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.