bpost SA (BPOSY) AI Stock Analysis

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bpost SA

(OTC:BPOSY)

Rating:51Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▼(-3.85% Downside)

bpost SA's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage, which are partially offset by positive cash flow management. Technical indicators show moderate strength, but valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings. The earnings call suggests cautious optimism, but external challenges persist.

bpost SA (BPOSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$516.94M

Dividend Yield3.27%

Average Volume (3M)0.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7

Beta (1Y)0.42

Revenue Growth9.85%

EPS Growth-684.15%

CountryUS

Employees36,527

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength76

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)<0.01

Shares Outstanding200,001,000

10 Day Avg. Volume0

30 Day Avg. Volume0

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.04

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.15

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.92

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.50

Price Target Upside-3.85% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

bpost SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptionbpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides mail and parcel services to consumers, businesses, and government in Belgium, rest of Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Mail & Retail; PaLo N. Am.; and PaLo Eurasia. Its mail and parcels services include collection, transport, sorting, and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers, and parcels, as well as banking and financial products, e-commerce logistics, express delivery, proximity and convenience, document management, and related services. The company also offers transactional mails, advertising mails, press, domestic and international parcels, logistic solutions, and cross-border products, as well as value-added services. bpost NV/SA was incorporated in 1830 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.

How the Company Makes Moneybpost generates revenue primarily through its mail and parcel delivery services. The company earns income from the distribution of letters, direct mail, and parcels, with a significant emphasis on e-commerce logistics, which has seen growth due to the rise in online shopping. Key revenue streams include domestic and international mail services, parcel delivery fees, and logistics solutions for businesses. Additionally, bpost has established partnerships with various e-commerce platforms and retailers, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. The company also generates revenue through its financial services, which include payment and banking solutions, further diversifying its income sources.

bpost SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 1.17%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture. While there were notable achievements such as increased operating income, improved outlook, and successful strategic initiatives, the company faced significant challenges including declines in mail volume, financial results, and certain segments' revenues. The balance of these factors suggests a cautious outlook with room for optimism.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Operating Income Increase

Group operating income for Q2 stood at EUR 1.092 billion, an increase year-over-year by 10.5%.

Parcel Revenue Growth

Parcels revenue increased by EUR 4 million or 3.1% year-on-year, reflecting a volume growth of 4.1%.

Improved Outlook

The company reaffirmed its guidance and now targets the higher end of the EBIT range for 2025.

Radial U.S. Performance

Radial U.S. maintained stable EBIT despite a 23% revenue drop, thanks to effective margin actions.

Cross-Selling Success

Staci and Active Ants demonstrated successful cross-selling and geographical expansion.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Operating Income at Constant Perimeter

Operating income decreased by 9% or EUR 91 million at constant perimeter, mainly due to contract terminations in North America and lower domestic mail revenue.

BeNe Last Mile Segment Challenges

EBIT for the BeNe Last Mile segment decreased due to lower press and mail revenue.

Financial Result Decline

Financial result decreased by EUR 44 million, mainly due to high interest expenses and noncash items like unrealized FX impact.

3PL Revenue Decline

3PL revenues declined by EUR 54 million or 20% when excluding the EUR 197 million contribution from Staci consolidation.

Mail Volume Decline

Mail recorded an underlying volume decline of minus 12.4% for the quarter.

Company Guidance

During the bpost Group's Second Quarter 2025 Analyst Conference Call, CEO Christiaan Peeters and CFO Philippe Dartienne provided a comprehensive overview of the company's financial performance and future outlook. The group's Q2 operating income was reported at EUR 1.092 billion, marking a 10.5% increase year-over-year, although it decreased by 9% when excluding the EUR 195 million impact from the Staci consolidation. The adjusted EBIT stood at EUR 58.3 million with a 5.3% margin. Notably, the BeNe Last Mile segment saw a decline in EBIT due to lower press and domestic mail revenues. Meanwhile, the 3PL segment, excluding Staci, saw a 20% revenue decline, but Radial U.S. managed to maintain a stable EBIT. The financial outlook is optimistic, targeting the higher end of the EUR 150 million to EUR 180 million EBIT range for 2025, supported by productivity gains at Radial U.S. and cost control in Belgium. However, the company remains cautious about external factors that could impact their performance.

bpost SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

bpost SA faces significant financial challenges, with negative profitability metrics and high leverage. While cash flow remains a relative strength, the company must address its operational inefficiencies and improve profitability to enhance financial health and shareholder value.

Income Statement

Neutral

The income statement reveals a challenging financial period for bpost SA, with declining revenue growth and negative profitability metrics. The TTM revenue shows modest growth of 2.86% compared to the previous year, but the gross profit margin decreased significantly. EBIT and net profit margins are in negative territory, indicating operational losses. This is a concern for the company's profitability outlook.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.13 in the TTM period. The equity ratio stands at a lower 15.78%, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, raising concerns about shareholder value creation. However, the company's asset base has grown, providing some stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

bpost SA's cash flow statement shows a decrease in free cash flow from the previous period, with a free cash flow to net income ratio at -1.05 due to negative net income. However, the operating cash flow remains positive and provides some cushion for operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at -1.68, which indicates efficient cash generation relative to net income losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.45B	4.33B	4.26B	4.37B	4.28B	4.12B
Gross Profit	198.20M	220.00M	688.30M	550.90M	570.00M	430.40M
EBITDA	530.00M	551.30M	475.20M	608.30M	622.50M	523.80M
Net Income	-252.80M	-205.10M	65.70M	232.50M	250.90M	-19.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.19B	5.35B	4.12B	4.36B	4.14B	3.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	781.40M	747.40M	870.60M	1.05B	907.50M	948.10M
Total Debt	2.56B	2.55B	1.29B	1.49B	1.38B	1.44B
Total Liabilities	4.37B	4.49B	3.09B	3.29B	3.26B	3.29B
Stockholders Equity	818.20M	859.50M	1.03B	1.07B	884.80M	582.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	264.60M	388.30M	221.50M	258.00M	226.10M	423.60M
Operating Cash Flow	423.30M	534.90M	376.20M	422.40M	398.20M	571.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-1.42B	-152.40M	-19.20M	-145.00M	-127.60M
Financing Cash Flow	733.50M	758.60M	-428.70M	-262.10M	-309.10M	-138.80M

bpost SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price2.60

Price Trends

50DMA

2.58

Negative

100DMA

2.18

Positive

200DMA

2.07

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.03

Positive

RSI

45.28

Neutral

STOCH

7.31

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOSY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.67, above the 50-day MA of 2.58, and above the 200-day MA of 2.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BPOSY.

bpost SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDX	76 Outperform	$53.14B	13.39	14.68%	2.36%	0.27%	-2.64%
EXPD	72 Outperform	$16.07B	19.32	39.01%	1.25%	23.70%	31.33%
HUBG	70 Outperform	$2.16B	21.33	6.03%	1.33%	-5.37%	-11.26%
JBHT	66 Neutral	$13.88B	26.06	14.33%	1.17%	-2.24%	-5.43%
Sector *	65 Neutral	€10.66B	24.01	6.13%	2.50%	4.78%	-14.92%
PBI	52 Neutral	$1.94B	20.10	35.20%	2.20%	-39.89%	―
BPOSY	51 Neutral	$516.94M	4.73	-29.59%	3.27%	9.85%	-684.15%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BPOSY

bpost SA

2.60

-0.30

-10.34%

EXPD

Expeditors International

120.02

-1.15

-0.95%

FDX

FedEx

236.80

-54.06

-18.59%

HUBG

Hub Group

37.48

-5.94

-13.68%

JBHT

JB Hunt

150.14

-23.84

-13.70%

PBI

Pitney Bowes

11.82

4.78

67.90%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025