Popular (BPOP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.39B
• Dividend Yield: 2.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 565.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 5.87%
• EPS Growth: 53.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,274
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 3.38
• Shares Outstanding: 65,104,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 589,287
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 565,028
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.46
• 1Y Price Target: $153.25
• Price Target Upside: 18.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 14.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.49B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $152.00 ▲(17.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

BPOP’s score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (revenue growth, 2025 earnings rebound, improving leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E plus a moderate dividend). The main offsets are mixed near-term technicals (below the 20-day average with subdued momentum) and earnings-call risks around deposit outflows, higher 2026 charge-offs, and modest expense growth despite positive NII and loan growth guidance.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent multi-year revenue expansion demonstrates durable market traction across retail, commercial and wealth channels. That steady top-line growth supports loan origination capacity, fee income stability and provides a structural base for earnings and reinvestment over the next 2–6 months.

Capital & Shareholder Returns

A strong CET1 ratio and active buybacks plus a maintained dividend signal robust capital generation and management discipline. This allows continued capital returns while retaining buffers for stress scenarios, supporting long-term investor confidence and flexible capital allocation.

Cash Generation

Substantial and improving free cash flow that covered ~0.78x of net income in 2025 underpins sustainable funding for dividends, buybacks and transformation investments. Strong absolute cash generation enhances resilience across economic cycles despite prior-year volatility.

Negative Factors

Deposit Concentration

Heavy reliance on Puerto Rico public deposits creates funding concentration and outflow vulnerability. Persistent public deposit normalization pressures funding mix and cost of deposits, which can structurally compress margins and force more expensive wholesale funding if outflows continue.

Higher Credit Loss Guidance

Management's guidance for higher net charge-offs signals a material near-term rise in credit costs. An uptick in loss rates would reduce net income and capital generation, requiring higher provisions and potentially constraining dividend/buyback capacity if realized.

Geographic & Macro Risk

Significant exposure to Puerto Rico's macro and infrastructure challenges creates a structural risk premium. Energy instability, affordability constraints and regional concentration can slow local loan demand, increase credit stress, and necessitate higher capital cushions over time.

Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.

How the Company Makes Money

Popular generates revenue through several key streams, including net interest income from loans and deposits, non-interest income from fees associated with banking services, and investment income. The bank earns interest by lending money at higher rates than it pays on deposits. Non-interest income is derived from service charges, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Additionally, Popular engages in partnerships with various financial institutions and service providers, enhancing its product offerings and customer reach, which contributes to its overall earnings.

Popular Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and a clear 2025 earnings rebound support the score, alongside improving leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.23) and solid absolute cash generation (2025 FCF $681M). Offsetting factors include profitability still below prior peak margin years and uneven cash-flow consistency across 2023–2024.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from $2.49B (2020) to $4.43B (2025), indicating durable top-line momentum. Profitability remains solid in 2025 with a ~18.8% net margin and ~22.7% EBIT margin, and net income rebounded to $833M from $614M in 2024. The key offset is margin compression versus 2021–2022 (when net margins were ~34–35%), suggesting profitability is still below prior peak levels despite the recovery.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled for the period shown, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.23 in 2025 (better than ~0.39 in 2022), alongside equity growth to $6.25B. Returns are healthy but moderated: return on equity was ~13.3% in 2025 versus much stronger levels in 2021–2022, implying less efficient profitability than the peak years. Assets have grown to ~$75.3B, but the combination of a large balance sheet and lower ROE versus earlier periods is the primary constraint on the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in absolute terms, with 2025 operating cash flow of $878M and free cash flow of $681M, and free cash flow up ~13.7% year over year. Free cash flow covers a substantial portion of earnings (about 0.78x net income in 2025), supporting earnings quality. The main weakness is volatility—free cash flow growth was negative in 2023 and 2024—pointing to less consistent cash conversion across the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.43B	4.19B	3.76B	3.24B	2.64B
Gross Profit	2.93B	2.54B	2.44B	2.85B	2.67B
EBITDA	1.01B	856.63M	737.23M	1.29B	1.31B
Net Income	833.16M	614.21M	541.34M	1.10B	934.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	75.35B	73.05B	70.76B	67.64B	75.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	439.32M	25.02B	24.08B	23.76B	42.84B
Total Debt	1.58B	1.31B	1.24B	1.58B	1.34B
Total Liabilities	69.10B	67.43B	65.61B	63.54B	69.13B
Stockholders Equity	6.25B	5.61B	5.15B	4.09B	5.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	680.99M	461.31M	478.57M	910.75M	931.47M
Operating Cash Flow	878.45M	674.72M	686.61M	1.01B	1.01B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-1.63B	-2.61B	5.35B	-10.52B
Financing Cash Flow	864.58M	959.58M	1.88B	-6.32B	9.45B

Popular Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 128.92
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 128.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.69, below the 50-day MA of 133.98, and above the 200-day MA of 120.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BPOP.

Popular Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPOP	74 Outperform	$8.39B	8.78	13.82%	2.31%	5.87%	53.36%
ONB	73 Outperform	$8.25B	12.93	8.51%	2.43%	20.72%	3.63%
CBSH	72 Outperform	$6.98B	12.84	15.43%	1.97%	12.63%	14.25%
CFR	69 Neutral	$8.18B	12.51	14.95%	3.05%	2.85%	20.57%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ZION	66 Neutral	$7.93B	9.58	13.33%	2.97%	0.12%	27.30%

Popular Corporate Events

Popular announces director Myrna Soto to step down

Popular, Inc. announced that on February 25, 2026, director Myrna M. Soto notified the board of her decision not to stand for re-election when her current term ends at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, scheduled for May 8, 2026. The company stated that Soto’s departure is not due to any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices, and the board will reduce its size from twelve to eleven directors effective at the 2026 shareholders’ meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $170.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Popular Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Signals Ongoing Strength

On February 26, 2026, Popular, Inc. announced that its board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on April 1, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 18, 2026, signaling continued capital return to investors and underscoring the bank’s confidence in its financial position and earnings resilience.

The dividend declaration maintains Popular’s pattern of shareholder distributions and provides income visibility to investors in a period of ongoing scrutiny of bank capital and payout policies. For stakeholders, the move suggests management sees sufficient balance sheet strength to support both regulatory requirements and consistent cash returns, reinforcing the company’s standing among leading regional banking institutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $170.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Popular reports stronger Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings

On January 27, 2026, Popular, Inc. reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $233.9 million from $211.3 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $3.53, supported by higher net interest income, an expanded net interest margin and lower operating expenses. Full-year 2025 net income reached $833.2 million, up from $614.2 million in 2024, while adjusted net income excluding FDIC special assessment effects grew to $823.5 million from $646.1 million, reflecting stronger profitability, loan growth to $39.3 billion, and improved credit quality metrics such as lower non-performing loans and net charge-offs. Deposits ended 2025 at $66.2 billion, down quarter-on-quarter due to lower Puerto Rico public deposits but higher when those are excluded, and Popular underscored its robust capital position with a 15.72% Common Equity Tier 1 ratio and continued capital returns, including repurchasing 4.66 million shares for $501.5 million and paying a quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share, as it advances a strategic framework aimed at boosting returns and cementing its position as a top-performing bank for customers and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.