BNP Paribas SA (BNPQY)
OTHER OTC:BNPQY
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BNP Paribas
(OTC:BNPQY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$62.00
â–²(47.90% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/20/26
The score reflects a solid but not fully stable fundamental profile: improving earnings are tempered by leverage sensitivity and historically volatile cash flows. This is partly offset by strong technical momentum and an attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), with the earnings call supporting the outlook despite near-term capital and restructuring headwinds.
Positive Factors
Diversified business mix
BNP Paribas operates across retail, corporate, CIB, asset & wealth management and insurance, with multiple divisions showing organic growth. This diversified model reduces reliance on any single market cycle, supports recurring fee income and cross-sell, and provides durable revenue stability over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Negative Factors
Below-target capital & elevated leverage
Capital remains short of the stated 13% CET1 objective and leverage is elevated, increasing sensitivity to market and funding stress. Meeting targets relies on disposals and earnings, which constrains capital flexibility for buybacks or higher dividends and raises the structural risk profile until CET1 is sustainably above the target.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified business mix
BNP Paribas operates across retail, corporate, CIB, asset & wealth management and insurance, with multiple divisions showing organic growth. This diversified model reduces reliance on any single market cycle, supports recurring fee income and cross-sell, and provides durable revenue stability over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Read all positive factors
BNP Paribas (BNPQY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$115.64B
Dividend Yield2.41%
Average Volume (3M)128.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.7
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth-0.56%
EPS Growth12.34%
CountryUS
Employees178,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.64
Shares Outstanding2,209,300,300
10 Day Avg. Volume128,752
30 Day Avg. Volume128,020
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.76
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda39.42
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)6.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.81B
BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BNP Paribas SA provides a range of banking and financial services in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers corporate and institutional banking services, such as consulting, financing and transaction banking f...
How the Company Makes Money
BNP Paribas primarily makes money by earning net interest income and fee/commission income across its banking and investment platforms.
1) Net interest income (spread-based revenue)
- Retail and commercial banking: BNP Paribas takes in deposits a...
BNP Paribas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a clear acceleration in revenues and profits, strengthened three-year financial targets and a concrete plan to improve efficiency (including a structural support-function transformation and quantified AI benefits). Capital and asset-quality trends are constructive but the CET1 ratio remains below the 13% target and the Corporate Center / restructuring costs are a meaningful near-term drag. On balance, positive top-line momentum, delivered cost savings, and a credible medium-term profitability trajectory outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Profit Acceleration
Group revenues +8% in Q4 2025; net profit +28% year-over-year, approaching EUR 3.0 billion (record Q4). Jaws effect +2.9 points (3.9 points excluding AXA IM).
Negative Updates
Corporate Center Drag and Restructuring Charges
Corporate Center underperformed in H2 2025; forecast gross operating loss ~EUR 1.4 billion in 2026 driven by higher restructuring and central shareholder costs. Restructuring charges expected at EUR 800 million in 2026 (vs EUR 600m in 2025; long-run average ≈EUR 400m).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Profit Acceleration
Group revenues +8% in Q4 2025; net profit +28% year-over-year, approaching EUR 3.0 billion (record Q4). Jaws effect +2.9 points (3.9 points excluding AXA IM).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BNP Paribas guided to continued momentum: Q4 revenues +8% (CIB +1% / +4.8% at constant scope, CPBS +5.5%, IPS +11% organic and ~+40% including AXA IM), net profit +28% to ~€3bn, CET1 12.6% (+10bps) with a 13% target (aiming to reach it by end‑'27 after a 30bps FRTB assumption), and a 2025 dividend per share of €5.16 (final €2.57). Management reconfirmed >7% earnings and 8% EPS CAGR for ’24–’26, targets 12% RoTE in ’26 and >13% in ’28 (and >10% earnings CAGR / sharper EPS CAGR for ’25–’28), expects to deliver a 1.5pp jaws effect, keep cost of risk below 40bps, and cut the cost‑to‑income ratio from ~58% to <56% by ’28 building on €3.5bn savings (completed by end‑’26) plus a new support‑functions program covering ~€15bn of costs with first benefits from ’27; they also expect AI benefits of ~€600m to date (rising to €750m by ’26), confirm a ≥60% payout (not less than 60% for ’27–’30), plan disposals to free 30–50bps of CET1, and have corporate‑center restructuring ~€800m and central costs ~€600m in 2026 (gross operating loss ≈€1.4bn).BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 119.13B | 45.74B | 43.03B | 77.63B | 107.81B |
| Gross Profit | 68.80B | 65.87B | 59.73B | 57.48B | 41.63B |
| EBITDA | 23.70B | 23.46B | 18.28B | 19.68B | 13.65B |
| Net Income | 11.74B | 11.69B | 10.97B | 9.85B | 9.49B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.79T | 2.70T | 2.59T | 2.67T | 2.63T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 326.96B | 308.05B | 296.61B | 474.92B | 484.27B |
| Total Debt | 398.49B | 727.82B | 673.44B | 293.98B | 718.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.66T | 2.57T | 2.46T | 2.55T | 2.52T |
| Stockholders Equity | 125.51B | 128.14B | 123.74B | 121.24B | 117.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.80B | -99.51B | -36.46B | -55.37B | 26.18B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.56B | -97.38B | -34.24B | -52.84B | 27.84B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.06B | -180.00M | 7.30B | -2.16B | 13.35B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.82B | -6.42B | -4.68B | 9.25B | 14.52B |
BNP Paribas Technical Analysis
Positive
41.92
Price Trends
51.85
Positive
49.87
Positive
46.67
Positive
Market Momentum
1.03
Negative
66.23
Neutral
96.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNPQY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.04, below the 50-day MA of 51.85, and below the 200-day MA of 46.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNPQY.
BNP Paribas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $87.95B | 10.39 | 12.22% | 3.77% | 3.87% | 18.20% | |
73 Outperform | $95.40B | 14.67 | 15.75% | 0.85% | 1.39% | 0.34% | |
72 Outperform | $125.19B | 4.96 | 13.60% | 3.03% | 0.81% | 1.99% | |
71 Outperform | $115.64B | 7.69 | 9.43% | 2.41% | -0.56% | 12.34% | |
71 Outperform | $89.95B | 12.15 | 11.98% | 3.11% | 3.51% | 21.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $104.30B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -8.02% | 22.45% |
* Financial Sector Average
BNPQY
BNP Paribas
52.34
13.30
34.08%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
25.41
-10.36
-28.96%
IBN
Icici Bank
26.59
-6.71
-20.14%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
8.60
3.68
74.80%
PNC
PNC Financial
223.00
67.25
43.18%
USB
US Bancorp
56.66
17.81
45.84%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.