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BNP Paribas SA (BNPQY)
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BNP Paribas (BNPQY) AI Stock Analysis

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BNPQY

BNP Paribas

(OTC:BNPQY)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:―
BNP Paribas scores well due to its strong financial foundation, positive technical indicators, and attractive valuation metrics. The earnings call provides an optimistic outlook with growth in key divisions, but operational challenges and economic uncertainties remain. The company's ability to manage leverage and improve cash flows will be crucial for future performance.

BNP Paribas (BNPQY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBNP Paribas SA provides a range of banking and financial services in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers corporate and institutional banking services, such as consulting, financing and transaction banking for corporate clients and institutional investors; capital markets investment and financing; securities clearing, and custody services. It also provides commercial, and personal banking and services, including financing and leasing services, financing of individuals, and digital banking services, as well as current and savings account products, equipment leasing and financing solutions, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers investment and protection services, which includes borrowers' insurance, which protects the insured party from the unexpected when taking out a mortgage, personal, auto, or consumer loan; savings and protection solutions comprising life insurance, employee savings, retirement savings, etc.; asset management, wealth management, and real estate services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyBNP Paribas generates revenue through a diverse range of financial services. In Retail Banking, the company earns income from interest on loans, mortgages, and credit products provided to individuals and small businesses, as well as fees from account management, transactions, and other banking services. In Investment Solutions, BNP Paribas makes money through asset management fees, wealth management advisory services, and insurance products. The Corporate & Institutional Banking division generates significant revenue through underwriting, advisory services, trading in securities and derivatives, and corporate lending. Additionally, BNP Paribas benefits from strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and a global network that enhances its ability to offer comprehensive financial solutions to multinational corporations and institutional clients.

BNP Paribas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong outlook for future growth, particularly with the forecasted net profit exceeding EUR 12.2 billion and positive revenue growth across most divisions. However, there were notable challenges, including a decline in net profit due to tax effects, challenges in specialized businesses, and a dip in Equity and Prime Services. Overall, the sentiment of the call is cautiously optimistic with significant growth expected in the second half of the year.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Profit Guidance
BNP Paribas expects net profit for 2025 to exceed EUR 12.2 billion, driven by a strong acceleration in revenues in the second half of the year.
Revenue Growth Across Divisions
Overall group revenues were up 2.5% year-on-year, with CIB posting a 4% growth and Securities Services up 7.6%. Euro-Med showed strong revenue growth at 22%.
Positive Jaws Effect
The company achieved a positive jaws effect of 1.7 points, above the target of 1.5, with cost savings of EUR 190 million implemented in Q2.
CET1 Capital Ratio Stability
CET1 capital ratio remained stable at 12.5%, demonstrating tight control and stability through the cycle.
Integration of AXA IM
The acquisition of AXA IM is expected to significantly contribute to growth, with integration launched and synergies targets to be provided by Q3.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Profit
Net profit was down 4% due to a low tax charge in the second quarter of 2024, although not compromising the trajectory of profitability.
Challenges in Specialized Businesses
Revenues from specialized businesses were down 7% year-on-year, impacted by the ongoing normalization of used car prices.
Equity and Prime Services Dip
Equity and Prime Services revenues were down 15% due to high base effects and lower demand for structured products.
Asset Management Revenue Decline
Asset Management revenues were down 1.8% due to financial income, particularly real estate, despite strong inflow and transactional activity.
Company Guidance
During the BNP Paribas second quarter 2025 results call, CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafe and CFO Lars Machenil provided guidance anticipating a net profit exceeding EUR 12.2 billion for the year, driven by over 5% revenue growth in the second half, excluding AXA IM. The bank reported a 2.5% quarterly revenue increase, with CIB growing by 4% and IPS by 4.4%, while CPBS was marginally up. The cost of risk was maintained within guidance at 38 bps, with Stage 3 provisions reduced by 9 bps year-on-year. The CET1 ratio remained stable at 12.5%, and a 60% distribution policy was confirmed, including an interim dividend of EUR 2.59 per share. BNP Paribas also completed a EUR 1.80 billion share buyback. They highlighted operational efficiencies, achieving EUR 190 million in additional savings in Q2, and a positive jaws effect of 1.7 points, exceeding their 1.5 ambition. The bank remains focused on delivering cost savings of EUR 600 million for the year and expects a sharp profit acceleration in the second half.

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BNP Paribas demonstrates a strong financial position with a high equity ratio and profitability, supported by robust cash reserves. However, volatile revenues and negative cash flows indicate operational challenges, requiring focus on cash flow stabilization and operational efficiency.
Income Statement
72
Positive
BNP Paribas shows a volatile revenue trend with a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023. The net profit margin is relatively high, showcasing effective cost management despite the absence of EBIT and EBITDA metrics. However, the fluctuating revenue growth rates and lack of EBIT margins indicate potential operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The company maintains a strong equity position with a robust equity ratio, supported by significant cash reserves and a manageable level of debt. The improving return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds, although the overall high liabilities relative to total assets highlight leverage risks typical in the banking industry.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
BNP Paribas experiences negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. However, there is a substantial free cash flow improvement from 2023 to 2024, reflecting a positive trajectory in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational inefficiencies need addressing.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue129.37B59.73B57.48B56.35B52.28B
Gross Profit65.87B59.73B57.48B56.35B87.19B
EBITDA23.46B0.000.000.000.00
Net Income11.69B10.97B9.85B9.49B7.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.70T2.59T2.66T2.63T2.49T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments786.01B408.22B474.92B484.27B412.58B
Total Debt379.89B346.85B625.71B718.22B687.29B
Total Liabilities2.57T2.46T2.54T2.51T2.37T
Stockholders Equity128.14B123.74B121.24B117.89B112.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-99.51B-36.46B-55.37B40.71B138.55B
Operating Cash Flow-97.38B-34.24B-52.84B42.38B139.32B
Investing Cash Flow-180.00M7.30B-2.16B-1.18B-851.00M
Financing Cash Flow-6.42B-4.68B9.25B14.52B18.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price45.39
Price Trends
50DMA
44.49
Positive
100DMA
42.29
Positive
200DMA
37.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Positive
RSI
52.70
Neutral
STOCH
38.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNPQY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.24, above the 50-day MA of 44.49, and above the 200-day MA of 37.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNPQY.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$73.53B12.7011.19%3.50%3.60%22.68%
76
Outperform
$100.04B8.639.19%6.26%5.70%11.52%
72
Outperform
$60.04B12.5710.06%3.85%3.47%-8.90%
71
Outperform
$120.47B19.1517.47%0.71%17.32%12.99%
68
Neutral
$64.17B8.9520.65%6.79%-6.74%5.13%
67
Neutral
$17.01B11.599.50%3.95%10.65%1.31%
65
Neutral
$75.61B12.368.69%2.69%13.63%27.77%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BNPQY
BNP Paribas
45.39
15.16
50.15%
IBN
Icici Bank
32.83
5.19
18.78%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
6.43
1.41
28.09%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
4.33
1.67
62.78%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
5.93
2.24
60.70%
PNC
PNC Financial
189.07
25.89
15.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 26, 2025