BNP Paribas (BNPQY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $109.41B
• Dividend Yield: 2.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 131.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: -6.04%
• EPS Growth: 14.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 178,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.55
• Shares Outstanding: 2,209,300,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 50,425
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 131,503
• PEG Ratio: 1.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 39.16
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.91
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $63.97B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $52.00 ▲(24.05% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/10/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/10/26

The score is driven by improved 2025 profitability and an attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend), partly offset by highly variable cash flow history and elevated leverage sensitivity. Technicals are supportive but look overextended, adding near-term pullback risk.

Positive Factors

Diversified universal bank model

BNP Paribas operates across retail, commercial, corporate & institutional banking, asset and wealth management, and insurance. This multi-line diversification supports stable fee mixes and cross‑sell opportunities, reducing single-market sensitivity and supporting revenue resilience over quarters.

Material profitability improvement in 2025

A meaningful rebound to ~10.3% net margin and higher EBIT margin in 2025 indicates stronger operating leverage and improved cost/revenue dynamics. If sustained, these margins enhance internal capital generation and support ongoing investment and risk absorption across the cycle.

Scale and stable capital base

A ~$2.8T asset base and steady equity provide substantial scale for lending, markets and custody activities, enabling broad client coverage and funding diversification. Size supports market franchise, risk pooling and the capacity to underwrite larger transactions over medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated and variable leverage

High and historically volatile leverage raises sensitivity to funding costs, regulatory capital shifts and credit cycles. Elevated debt-to-equity constrains capital flexibility, increases refinancing and liquidity risk, and can amplify earnings and solvency pressure during adverse economic turns.

Inconsistent cash generation

Large swings from deeply negative OCF to a positive 2025 rebound show unstable cash conversion. This unpredictability complicates funding of dividends, buybacks or balance sheet repair, and raises refinancing and operational liquidity risks through varying economic cycles.

Volatile revenue and earnings history

Sharp year-to-year swings in revenue and profitability reduce confidence in recurring earnings power. Such volatility complicates planning, forecasting and capital allocation, and makes long-term cash flow predictability and stress planning more challenging for management.

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BNP Paribas SA provides a range of banking and financial services in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers corporate and institutional banking services, such as consulting, financing and transaction banking for corporate clients and institutional investors; capital markets investment and financing; securities clearing, and custody services. It also provides commercial, and personal banking and services, including financing and leasing services, financing of individuals, and digital banking services, as well as current and savings account products, equipment leasing and financing solutions, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers investment and protection services, which includes borrowers' insurance, which protects the insured party from the unexpected when taking out a mortgage, personal, auto, or consumer loan; savings and protection solutions comprising life insurance, employee savings, retirement savings, etc.; asset management, wealth management, and real estate services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

How the Company Makes Money

BNP Paribas primarily makes money by earning net interest income and fee/commission income across its banking and investment platforms. 1) Net interest income (spread-based revenue) - Retail and commercial banking: BNP Paribas takes in deposits and other funding and uses those funds to originate loans (e.g., mortgages, consumer credit, small business and corporate loans). It earns interest on these loans and pays interest on deposits and wholesale funding; the difference (the net interest margin) is a major earnings driver. - Corporate financing: The bank also provides financing to larger corporates (including working capital facilities, term loans, and structured financing). Revenue is generated from interest spreads and, where applicable, arrangement/underwriting economics tied to financing transactions. - Securities financing/prime-type activities (within institutional businesses): Where applicable, lending against or financing securities positions can generate interest income and financing spreads (subject to market conditions and risk limits). 2) Fees and commissions (service-based revenue) - Payments and transaction banking: BNP Paribas charges fees for cash management, payment processing, merchant services, custody-related services (if offered within its institutional set-up), and other transaction services provided to corporate and institutional clients. - Investment and corporate banking fees: The bank earns advisory and execution fees from activities such as debt and equity capital markets services, underwriting/placement, certain structured solutions, and corporate advisory (e.g., M&A-related advisory when provided). It also earns commissions and service fees from trading-related client facilitation and other capital markets services. - Asset management and wealth management: BNP Paribas earns management fees calculated as a percentage of assets under management/advisory, performance fees where applicable (product-dependent), and distribution/servicing fees. Wealth management can also generate brokerage, advisory, and structuring fees tied to client portfolios. - Insurance: Insurance activities typically generate revenue through premiums and fees, with profitability influenced by underwriting results and claims experience, and through investment income on the insurer’s investment portfolio. 3) Trading and investment-related income (market-linked revenue) - In corporate and institutional banking, BNP Paribas can generate income from market-making/client flow, hedging solutions, and other capital markets activities. Results depend on client activity, market volatility, spreads, and risk management. 4) Other important earnings factors - Cross-selling and integrated distribution: A key driver for large universal banks is distributing multiple products (banking, investment products, and insurance) through retail networks and dedicated corporate/institutional coverage, increasing fee opportunities per client relationship. - Credit quality and cost of risk: Interest and fee revenue translate into profit after accounting for loan losses/impairments; changes in macro conditions and borrower defaults can materially affect earnings. - Interest-rate environment and funding mix: Net interest income is sensitive to policy rates, yield curves, deposit betas, and the mix of low-cost deposits versus wholesale funding. Significant partnerships or specific counterparties contributing to earnings: null

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved materially into 2025 (net income up to ~$12.2B with ~10.3% net margin and ~14.3% EBIT margin), but the overall profile is tempered by a highly leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~3.2x in 2025, higher in prior years) and especially volatile cash flows, including deeply negative operating/free cash flow in 2022–2024 before rebounding in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and improving: net income rose from $7.1B (2020) to $12.2B (2025) with a healthy 2025 net margin of ~10.3% and EBIT margin of ~14.3%. Revenue growth is strong in 2025 (+30.3% YoY) after more muted growth in 2024. Offsetting this, results show notable volatility across years (including weak/negative operating profitability indicators in 2020 and sharp revenue swings), which reduces confidence in the consistency of earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a large, stable asset base (total assets ~$2.79T in 2025) and equity that has been broadly steady (~$121B–$128B over 2021–2025). However, leverage is high and variable: debt-to-equity ranges from ~2.4x (2022) to ~6.1x (2020–2021) and remains elevated at ~3.2x in 2025. Return on equity in the available years is moderate (~8%–9% in 2021–2024), but the leverage profile increases sensitivity to funding conditions and credit cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area due to large swings. Operating cash flow was deeply negative in 2022–2024 (including -$97.4B in 2024) and free cash flow was also negative over that period, before rebounding to positive in 2025 (operating cash flow ~$14.6B; free cash flow ~$11.8B). Even in 2025, free cash flow declined ~27.5% YoY, and cash conversion versus earnings is inconsistent across the cycle, signaling elevated variability in underlying cash dynamics.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	119.13B	45.74B	43.03B	77.63B	107.81B
Gross Profit	68.80B	65.87B	59.73B	57.48B	41.63B
EBITDA	23.70B	23.46B	18.28B	19.68B	13.65B
Net Income	11.74B	11.69B	10.97B	9.85B	9.49B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.79T	2.70T	2.59T	2.67T	2.63T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	326.96B	308.05B	296.61B	474.92B	484.27B
Total Debt	398.49B	727.82B	673.44B	293.98B	718.22B
Total Liabilities	2.66T	2.57T	2.46T	2.55T	2.52T
Stockholders Equity	125.51B	128.14B	123.74B	121.24B	117.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.80B	-99.51B	-36.46B	-55.37B	26.18B
Operating Cash Flow	14.56B	-97.38B	-34.24B	-52.84B	27.84B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.06B	-180.00M	7.30B	-2.16B	13.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.82B	-6.42B	-4.68B	9.25B	14.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 41.92
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNPQY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.75, below the 50-day MA of 52.44, and below the 200-day MA of 45.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BNPQY.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PNC	72 Outperform	$82.26B	10.18	11.88%	3.11%	1.79%	30.93%
HDB	71 Outperform	$140.85B	21.06	13.72%	3.03%	-1.78%	0.65%
IBN	69 Neutral	$99.83B	18.92	15.95%	0.85%	10.85%	7.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BNPQY	66 Neutral	$109.41B	7.69	9.43%	2.41%	-6.04%	14.88%
USB	65 Neutral	$80.14B	10.95	12.12%	3.77%	2.91%	33.77%
MFG	57 Neutral	$95.85B	10.79	9.73%	2.31%	-2.84%	25.48%