BNP Paribas (BNPQY) AI Stock Analysis

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BNP Paribas

(OTC:BNPQY)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$50.00

▲(11.01% Upside)

BNP Paribas scores well due to its strong financial position and attractive valuation, supported by effective cost management and revenue growth in key regions. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and operational challenges such as volatile revenues and negative cash flows pose risks. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both positive growth and some segment-specific challenges.

BNP Paribas (BNPQY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$101.24B

Dividend Yield6.17%

Average Volume (3M)19.19K

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8

Beta (1Y)0.54

Revenue Growth-6.04%

EPS Growth14.88%

CountryUS

Employees178,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength70

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.63

Shares Outstanding2,261,621,300

10 Day Avg. Volume17,957

30 Day Avg. Volume19,190

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.92

Enterprise Value/Revenue9.87

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit40.56

Enterprise Value/Ebitda74.19

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$50.00

Price Target Upside11.01% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBNP Paribas is a leading international banking and financial services group headquartered in Paris, France. The company operates across various sectors, including retail banking, corporate and institutional banking, investment solutions, and asset management. BNP Paribas offers a wide range of core products and services, such as loans, mortgages, investment banking, wealth management, and insurance, serving both individual and corporate clients globally.

How the Company Makes MoneyBNP Paribas generates revenue through a diversified business model that includes several key revenue streams. Retail banking contributes significantly to its earnings through interest income from loans and fees from banking services offered to individual and small business clients. Corporate and institutional banking provides revenue through fees and commissions for advisory services, capital markets activities, and transaction banking. Additionally, the investment solutions segment, which includes asset management and insurance services, contributes to revenue through management fees and premiums. The bank benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with various financial institutions and companies, enhancing its service offerings and market reach. Factors such as economic conditions, interest rate fluctuations, and regulatory changes also play a crucial role in shaping its financial performance.

BNP Paribas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth, particularly in the CIB and Euro-Med regions, and effective cost management. However, challenges such as a decline in net profit, underperformance in some segments like Asset Management and Equities, and margin pressure in Italy were noted.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

BNP Paribas reported a 2.5% increase in revenues for the second quarter of 2025, with a projected revenue acceleration of more than 5% in the second half of the year.

Record Performance in CIB

The Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) division achieved a record second quarter with a 4% year-on-year increase in revenues, driven by strong performance across Global Banking, Global Markets, and Securities Services.

Cost Efficiency and Savings

The company implemented EUR 190 million in cost savings in Q2, contributing to a positive jaws effect of 1.7 points, exceeding their target of 1.5 points.

Positive Performance in Euro-Med Region

Euro-Med reported a 22.7% increase in revenues, driven by improved margins in Poland and Turkey.

Personal Finance Growth

Personal Finance showed commercial performance improvement with loan growth of 2.7% and margin enhancements from repricing.

Insurance and Wealth Management Growth

Insurance revenues rose by 8.2%, and Wealth Management experienced a 6.1% increase due to strong inflows and transaction activity.

Negative Updates

Net Profit Decline

Net profit decreased by 4% year-on-year due to a low tax charge in Q2 2024.

Equities and Prime Services Challenges

Equities and Prime Services revenues were down 15% compared to the previous year, affected by high base effects and lower demand for structured products.

Asset Management Revenue Decline

Asset Management revenues decreased by 1.8% despite strong inflows, impacted by financial income challenges, particularly in real estate.

Pressure on Corporate Banking in Italy

BNL in Italy faced margin pressure within its Corporate Banking segment, affecting profitability.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, BNP Paribas reported a 2.5% increase in revenues, with the Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) division experiencing a 4% revenue growth. The Euro-Mediterranean region showed strong performance with a 22% revenue increase, while Personal Finance grew by 3%. The group's cost control measures led to EUR 190 million in additional savings in Q2, contributing to a positive jaws effect of 1.7 points, above the target of 1.5 points. The cost of risk was maintained at 38 basis points, within the guidance of less than 40 basis points. BNP Paribas aims to achieve a net profit exceeding EUR 12.2 billion for 2025, driven by expected revenue growth exceeding 5% in the second half, primarily from the Eurozone commercial banks and Personal Finance. The bank's CET1 ratio remained stable at 12.5%, and a share buyback program of EUR 1.80 billion was completed, with shares to be canceled. The group confirmed its distribution policy of a 60% payout, announcing an interim dividend of EUR 2.59 per share.

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BNP Paribas demonstrates a strong financial position with high equity and profitability, supported by a robust return on equity and net profit margin. However, operational challenges are evident in volatile revenues and negative cash flows, indicating a need for improved cash flow stability and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Positive

BNP Paribas shows a volatile revenue trend with a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023. The net profit margin is relatively high, showcasing effective cost management despite the absence of EBIT and EBITDA metrics. However, the fluctuating revenue growth rates and lack of EBIT margins indicate potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a strong equity position with a robust equity ratio, supported by significant cash reserves and a manageable level of debt. The improving return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds, although the overall high liabilities relative to total assets highlight leverage risks typical in the banking industry.

Cash Flow

Positive

BNP Paribas experiences negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. However, there is a substantial free cash flow improvement from 2023 to 2024, reflecting a positive trajectory in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational inefficiencies need addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	91.46B	45.74B	43.03B	77.63B	107.81B	87.19B
Gross Profit	22.26B	65.87B	59.73B	57.48B	41.63B	37.41B
EBITDA	12.17B	23.46B	17.97B	19.68B	-4.45B	-4.07B
Net Income	10.63B	11.69B	10.97B	9.85B	9.49B	7.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.85T	2.70T	2.59T	2.67T	2.63T	2.49T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	315.45B	308.05B	296.61B	474.92B	484.27B	317.08B
Total Debt	401.86B	727.82B	673.44B	293.98B	718.22B	687.29B
Total Liabilities	2.72T	2.57T	2.46T	2.55T	2.52T	2.38T
Stockholders Equity	125.69B	128.14B	123.74B	121.24B	117.89B	112.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.26B	-99.51B	-36.46B	-55.37B	26.18B	4.43B
Operating Cash Flow	18.48B	-97.38B	-34.24B	-52.84B	27.84B	5.21B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.48B	-180.00M	7.30B	-2.16B	13.35B	133.27B
Financing Cash Flow	2.02B	-6.42B	-4.68B	9.25B	14.52B	18.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price45.04

Price Trends

50DMA

45.84

Negative

100DMA

44.11

Positive

200DMA

38.83

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.41

Positive

RSI

44.38

Neutral

STOCH

43.75

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNPQY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.66, below the 50-day MA of 45.84, and above the 200-day MA of 38.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNPQY.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PNC	79 Outperform	$80.49B	13.97	11.19%	3.18%	3.60%	22.68%
USB	76 Outperform	$75.94B	11.68	11.64%	4.11%	1.10%	32.55%
IBN	73 Outperform	$113.68B	18.03	17.47%	0.81%	17.32%	12.99%
BNPQY	72 Outperform	$101.24B	8.76	9.19%	6.17%	-6.04%	14.88%
HDB	69 Neutral	$167.79B	43.37	13.78%	0.36%	2.48%	0.37%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.80B	11.94	10.22%	3.74%	9.69%	1.17%
MFG	65 Neutral	$82.32B	13.78	8.69%	2.41%	-2.22%	24.37%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BNPQY

BNP Paribas

45.04

12.01

36.36%

HDB

Hdfc Bank

35.38

4.94

16.23%

IBN

Icici Bank

31.86

2.92

10.09%

MFG

Mizuho Financial

6.67

2.66

66.33%

PNC

PNC Financial

203.77

27.54

15.63%

USB

US Bancorp

48.65

5.35

12.36%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025