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BNP Paribas SA (BNPQY)
:BNPQY

BNP Paribas (BNPQY) AI Stock Analysis

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BNP Paribas

(OTC:BNPQY)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:―
BNP Paribas scores well due to its strong financial foundation, positive technical indicators, and attractive valuation metrics. The earnings call provides an optimistic outlook with growth in key divisions, but operational challenges and economic uncertainties remain. The company's ability to manage leverage and improve cash flows will be crucial for future performance.

BNP Paribas (BNPQY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BNP Paribas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBNP Paribas SA provides a range of banking and financial services in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers corporate and institutional banking services, such as consulting, financing and transaction banking for corporate clients and institutional investors; capital markets investment and financing; securities clearing, and custody services. It also provides commercial, and personal banking and services, including financing and leasing services, financing of individuals, and digital banking services, as well as current and savings account products, equipment leasing and financing solutions, and consumer loans. In addition, the company offers investment and protection services, which includes borrowers' insurance, which protects the insured party from the unexpected when taking out a mortgage, personal, auto, or consumer loan; savings and protection solutions comprising life insurance, employee savings, retirement savings, etc.; asset management, wealth management, and real estate services. The company was formerly known as Banque Nationale de Paris and changed its name to BNP Paribas SA in May 2000. BNP Paribas SA was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyBNP Paribas generates revenue through a diverse range of financial services. In Retail Banking, the company earns income from interest on loans, mortgages, and credit products provided to individuals and small businesses, as well as fees from account management, transactions, and other banking services. In Investment Solutions, BNP Paribas makes money through asset management fees, wealth management advisory services, and insurance products. The Corporate & Institutional Banking division generates significant revenue through underwriting, advisory services, trading in securities and derivatives, and corporate lending. Additionally, BNP Paribas benefits from strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and a global network that enhances its ability to offer comprehensive financial solutions to multinational corporations and institutional clients.

BNP Paribas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a balanced sentiment. While BNP Paribas demonstrated strong revenue growth in several divisions and maintained cost control, challenges such as the decline in net profit, economic uncertainties, and specific segment underperformance were notable. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with strategic initiatives and acquisitions expected to drive future growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Group revenues increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with operating divisions achieving a 6.1% increase. CIB had a record quarter with 12.5% revenue growth, driven by strong performance in global markets (up 17.3%) and Security Services (up 13.4%).
Cost Control and Savings
Achieved €190 million in cost savings in Q1, on track to meet the €600 million target for the year. Operating divisions achieved a positive jaws effect of 1.9 points.
Positive Outlook for IPS Division
IPS posted a 6.6% revenue growth, driven by Wealth Management and Insurance. The division is expected to become a significant growth driver for the group, with the AXA IM acquisition strengthening its position.
Stable CET1 Capital Ratio
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio remained stable at 12.4%, comfortably above the SREP requirement and in line with the 12.3% target before FRTB.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Profit
Net profit decreased by 4.9% due to lower contributions from the Corporate Center and the absence of exceptional items that benefited the previous year's first quarter.
Impact of Economic Uncertainty
Acknowledged elevated uncertainties in markets and economic environment, with potential impacts on investment and corporate decision-making due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policies.
CET1 Capital Ratio Impact from AXA IM Acquisition
Potential increase in CET1 impact from the AXA IM acquisition from 25 basis points to 35 basis points if the ECB's prudential treatment stance prevails.
Challenges in Personal Finance and Eurozone Banks
Personal Finance core only achieved 2% revenue growth in Q1, below the 5% annual target. Eurozone banks' NII showed a slow start, with particular pressure in Belgium and Italy.
Company Guidance
During the BNP Paribas First Quarter 2025 Results call, CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafe and CFO Lars Machenil provided guidance reflecting a strong performance and reaffirmed their trajectory for 2024-2026. Key metrics included a 3.8% increase in revenues, with operating divisions up by 6.1%, and a notable 12.5% growth in CIB revenues. The company also reported a cost of risk at 33 basis points, below the guidance of 40 bps, and achieved €190 million in cost savings against a €600 million annual target. Despite a 4.9% drop in net profit due to lower contributions from the Corporate Center, the operating income grew by 6.7%. The CET1 ratio was reported at 12.4%, in line with guidance. The company confirmed its intention to distribute 60% of profits and announced a €1 billion share buyback to commence in the second quarter. BNP Paribas remains optimistic about achieving a return on tangible equity of 11.5% in 2025 and 12% in 2026, driven by strategic growth initiatives across its divisions.

BNP Paribas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BNP Paribas demonstrates a strong financial position with a high equity ratio and profitability, supported by robust cash reserves. However, volatile revenues and negative cash flows indicate operational challenges, requiring focus on cash flow stabilization and operational efficiency.
Income Statement
72
Positive
BNP Paribas shows a volatile revenue trend with a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023. The net profit margin is relatively high, showcasing effective cost management despite the absence of EBIT and EBITDA metrics. However, the fluctuating revenue growth rates and lack of EBIT margins indicate potential operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The company maintains a strong equity position with a robust equity ratio, supported by significant cash reserves and a manageable level of debt. The improving return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds, although the overall high liabilities relative to total assets highlight leverage risks typical in the banking industry.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
BNP Paribas experiences negative operating and free cash flows, indicating potential liquidity challenges. However, there is a substantial free cash flow improvement from 2023 to 2024, reflecting a positive trajectory in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational inefficiencies need addressing.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue129.37B59.73B57.48B56.35B52.28B
Gross Profit65.87B59.73B57.48B56.35B87.19B
EBITDA23.46B0.000.000.000.00
Net Income11.69B10.97B9.85B9.49B7.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.70T2.59T2.66T2.63T2.49T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments786.01B408.22B474.92B484.27B412.58B
Total Debt379.89B346.85B625.71B718.22B687.29B
Total Liabilities2.57T2.46T2.54T2.51T2.37T
Stockholders Equity128.14B123.74B121.24B117.89B112.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-99.51B-36.46B-55.37B40.71B138.55B
Operating Cash Flow-97.38B-34.24B-52.84B42.38B139.32B
Investing Cash Flow-180.00M7.30B-2.16B-1.18B-851.00M
Financing Cash Flow-6.42B-4.68B9.25B14.52B18.52B

BNP Paribas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price44.79
Price Trends
50DMA
43.50
Positive
100DMA
40.96
Positive
200DMA
36.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.54
Negative
RSI
53.37
Neutral
STOCH
63.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNPQY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.35, above the 50-day MA of 43.50, and above the 200-day MA of 36.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNPQY.

BNP Paribas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$102.88B8.799.69%5.78%5.70%11.52%
PNPNC
76
Outperform
$78.30B13.9811.15%3.23%3.07%19.01%
74
Outperform
$64.72B9.0620.65%0.46%-6.74%5.13%
LYLYG
72
Outperform
$61.38B12.998.73%4.97%-2.65%-14.84%
IBIBN
69
Neutral
$118.45B19.5117.89%0.71%22.15%12.13%
MFMFG
65
Neutral
$68.14B12.028.45%2.32%13.63%27.77%
64
Neutral
$6.55B11.227.19%5.04%23.75%4.96%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BNPQY
BNP Paribas
44.79
12.04
36.76%
IBN
Icici Bank
33.28
4.32
14.92%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
6.30
1.10
21.15%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
4.10
1.23
42.86%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
5.50
1.17
27.02%
PNC
PNC Financial
197.02
32.49
19.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 26, 2025