Builders Firstsource (BLDR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 90.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: -6.44%
• EPS Growth: -48.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.12
• Shares Outstanding: 110,605,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,009,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,543,637
• PEG Ratio: -0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.93
• 1Y Price Target: $127.33
• Price Target Upside: 40.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.94
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.03B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $88.00 ▼(-2.96% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened recent profitability/cash conversion and reduced balance-sheet confidence due to the 2025 data discontinuity. Technicals are mixed with soft momentum (below key moving averages), while valuation is moderate. Earnings call guidance and cost actions provide some offset, but near-term uncertainty remains elevated.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow & Leverage

Sustained, high free cash flow and manageable net leverage provide durable financial flexibility. Strong FCF funds capex, M&A and buybacks, supports debt service through housing cycles, and the lack of near-term maturities materially reduces refinancing risk over the next several years.

Value-Added Mix & Service Levels

A durable premium gross margin indicates the company’s value-added manufactured components and services retain pricing power versus commodity distribution. Coupled with high on-time, in-full delivery and footprint optimization, this supports stable margins and deeper builder relationships across cycles.

Digital Sales & Automation

Rapid digital adoption and investments in automation/ERP are structural improvements that raise sales productivity, speed quoting, and lower operating costs. Over the medium term this enhances cross-sell, reduces sales friction for large builders, and scales more efficiently with volume recovery.

Negative Factors

Profitability Compression

Sharp margin deterioration reduces earnings power and return on capital, weakening the company’s ability to self-fund growth and investments. If margin pressure persists from lower volumes or pricing, the firm faces structural profitability risk that could strain capital allocation choices over several quarters.

End‑market Demand Weakness

Sizable declines in single‑family and multifamily activity point to a structurally softer housing start environment and lower value per start. Continued weakness reduces utilization of manufacturing capacity and volume-based leverage, making revenue recovery dependent on an uncertain housing cycle.

Balance Sheet Data Uncertainty

A reporting discontinuity impedes reliable assessment of leverage and ROE, increasing uncertainty about true capital cushions and solvency metrics. Combined with weaker 2025 cash conversion (OCF below prior coverage), this complicates credit risk analysis and longer-term planning for investors and lenders.

Builders Firstsource Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing; manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, steel roof trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products; and windows, and interior and exterior door units, as well as interior and exterior trims and custom products under the Synboard brand name. The company also offers gypsum, roofing, and insulation products, including wallboards, ceilings, joint treatments, and finishes; and siding, metal, and concrete products, such as vinyl, composite, and wood siding products, as well as exterior trims, other exteriors, metal studs, and cement products. In addition, it provides other building products and services, such as cabinets and hardware, as well as turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Builders FirstSource makes money primarily by selling building products and related services to professional customers in residential construction and repair/remodel markets. Its revenue is generated through (1) distribution sales of building materials and construction supplies—commonly including lumber, plywood/OSB, millwork, windows/doors, siding, and other jobsite materials—sold through branch locations and delivered to job sites; and (2) manufacturing sales of value-added components and prefabricated/factory-built solutions—such as roof and floor trusses, wall panels, and other engineered components—produced in company facilities and sold to builders as higher-value, labor-saving inputs. The company also earns revenue from installation and other on-site services tied to certain product categories where it provides turnkey or value-added support. Earnings are influenced by residential construction activity (new housing starts and repair/remodel demand), product mix (higher value-added manufactured components vs. commodity-oriented materials), pricing and availability of key inputs (notably lumber and panel products), and the company’s ability to leverage scale, logistics, and its branch/manufacturing footprint to win large builder accounts and service regional markets.

Builders Firstsource Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Recent fundamentals show a clear downshift: 2025 net margin (~2.9%) and EBITDA margin (~5.2%) fell sharply versus prior years, with modest revenue contraction. Cash conversion also weakened in 2025 (OCF < net income; lower FCF-to-NI). The balance sheet signal is difficult to underwrite due to a noted 2025 data discontinuity and very low reported ROE, limiting confidence despite seemingly benign leverage ratios.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially versus prior years: net margin fell to ~2.9% in 2025 (from ~6.6% in 2024 and ~12.1% in 2022), with EBITDA margin also stepping down to ~5.2% (from ~9.7% in 2024 and ~18.8% in 2022). Revenue has been contracting recently (down ~3% in 2025 and slightly down in 2024), pointing to a softer demand/pricing environment. Offsetting this, gross margin remains relatively healthy at ~30% in 2025 (though below 2022–2024 levels), suggesting cost discipline at the product level even as overall earnings power compresses.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been manageable historically (debt-to-equity generally ~0.7–1.0 from 2021–2024), but the latest 2025 balance sheet shows a major discontinuity: total debt and equity appear orders of magnitude higher than prior years, which makes year-over-year comparability and risk assessment difficult. Using the provided ratios for 2025, leverage screens low (debt-to-equity ~0.15), but the reported return on equity is near zero, implying very weak profitability relative to the stated equity base. Overall, the balance sheet signal is mixed due to the apparent data break and the sharp deterioration in equity returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally tracked earnings well in the 2021–2024 period, with operating cash flow covering net income (coverage >1x in 2022–2024) and free cash flow running at ~0.79–0.91 of net income—solid conversion for the business. In 2025, cash flow metrics weaken (operating cash flow covers net income at ~0.77x and free cash flow is ~0.70 of net income), indicating reduced cash conversion alongside the earnings decline. Free cash flow growth in 2025 is extremely high, but given the broader 2025 scale shift versus prior years, that growth figure should be treated cautiously.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.19B	16.40B	17.10B	22.73B	19.89B
Gross Profit	4.62B	5.38B	6.01B	7.74B	5.85B
EBITDA	1.38B	1.60B	2.73B	4.27B	2.93B
Net Income	435.20M	1.08B	1.54B	2.75B	1.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.24B	10.58B	10.50B	10.60B	10.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	181.75M	153.62M	66.16M	80.44M	42.60M
Total Debt	5.65B	4.33B	3.71B	3.49B	3.40B
Total Liabilities	6.89B	6.29B	5.77B	5.63B	5.91B
Stockholders Equity	4.35B	4.30B	4.73B	4.96B	4.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	853.28M	1.49B	1.83B	3.26B	1.52B
Operating Cash Flow	1.22B	1.87B	2.31B	3.60B	1.74B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.47B	-710.72M	-668.29M	-957.48M	-1.34B
Financing Cash Flow	279.42M	-1.07B	-1.65B	-2.60B	-780.11M

Builders Firstsource Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 90.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLDR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 90.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.90, below the 50-day MA of 111.59, and below the 200-day MA of 118.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLDR.

Builders Firstsource Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WMS	76 Outperform	$10.89B	30.06	25.82%	0.47%	2.48%	-6.92%
AWI	72 Outperform	$7.29B	31.80	36.09%	0.66%	15.10%	23.35%
SSD	71 Outperform	$7.36B	29.69	17.58%	0.69%	4.26%	8.52%
MAS	64 Neutral	$12.57B	16.37	-537.31%	1.94%	-3.62%	3.41%
OC	64 Neutral	$8.76B	-17.89	-11.39%	2.43%	3.47%	-148.53%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BLDR	52 Neutral	$10.03B	90.31	10.11%	―	-6.44%	-48.84%