TopBuild (BLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 313.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -1.28%
• EPS Growth: -0.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,984
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 4.50
• Shares Outstanding: 28,139,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 398,814
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 313,775
• PEG Ratio: -2.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.18
• 1Y Price Target: $484.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 18.69
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.09B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $410.00 ▲(5.97% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and free-cash-flow generation, tempered by a meaningful recent rise in leverage and slower/softer earnings momentum. Near-term technicals are weak (below key short-term averages), while management’s outlook is balanced but cautious due to organic volume declines, margin pressure, and embedded price/cost headwinds; valuation remains moderate-to-elevated at ~24.6x earnings without dividend support.

Positive Factors

Multi-year revenue expansion and scale

TopBuild's sustained revenue scale doubles purchasing power, branch density and cross-sell reach, underpinning durable cost advantages and bargaining leverage with suppliers. Broad scale across installation and distribution supports fixed-cost absorption and long-term operating margin resilience despite cyclical dips.

Strong free cash flow and capital returns

Healthy free cash flow near net income levels gives TopBuild the ability to fund M&A, pay down debt, and repurchase shares without relying solely on external financing. Consistent cash generation is a structural strength that enables strategic reinvestment and liquidity buffer through cycles.

Aggressive, productive M&A program with synergy delivery

A repeatable M&A engine broadens TopBuild's product mix and geographies, accelerating scale and adding higher-margin specialty businesses. Successfully capturing announced synergies (including SPI/Progressive targets) can structurally raise revenue diversification and long-term EBITDA contribution even if organic growth lags.

Negative Factors

Material increase in leverage

Leverage materially increased due to sizable acquisitions, reducing financial flexibility and raising interest exposure. Higher leverage limits the company's ability to absorb construction-cycle downturns, increases refinancing risk and constrains discretionary investment or further large-scale M&A without de-risking the balance sheet.

Persistent organic volume declines and residential sensitivity

Significant organic volume weakness, especially in installation (heavy residential exposure ~52% of sales), undermines operating leverage and revenue quality. Prolonged softness in housing/rebuild activity can compress margins and offset revenue added via acquisitions, making earnings growth contingent on market recovery.

Margin pressure and embedded price/cost headwinds

Margin contraction reflects mix shifts, acquisition-related costs and commodity/competitive pricing pressures (notably fiberglass and spray foam). With deleverage from lower volumes and elevated interest costs, sustaining historical margins will require persistent cost discipline and successful synergy capture.

TopBuild Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, afterpaint products, fireproofing products, garage doors, fireplaces, closet shelving, roofing materials, and other products; and insulation installation services. The company also offers various services and tools to assist builders in applying the principles of building science to new home construction, which include pre-construction plan reviews, diagnostic testing, and various inspection services; and home energy rating services. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial general contractors, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates approximately 235 installation branches and 175 distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

TopBuild generates revenue primarily through its Installation and Distribution segments. The Installation segment provides insulation installation services for residential and commercial construction projects, making it a significant source of recurring revenue. The Distribution segment involves the sale of insulation products and other building materials to contractors and retail customers. Key revenue streams include direct sales from installations, product sales from distribution centers, and value-added services such as energy audits and consulting. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, enabling it to offer a wide range of products while maintaining competitive pricing. Economic factors such as housing starts, renovation activity, and energy efficiency regulations also contribute to its revenue growth.

TopBuild Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue expansion, solid historical margins, and robust free cash flow, but recent results show slowing growth, a step-down in earnings, softer cash-flow momentum, and a sharp increase in leverage that reduces flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the multi-year period (from ~$2.7B in 2020 to ~$5.4B in 2025), but the growth rate has slowed sharply in the last two years (low-single-digits). Profitability remains solid with gross margin around ~29–31% and net margin near ~10–12%, though 2025 shows a clear step-down in net income versus 2024. Overall: good scale and historically strong profitability, offset by slowing growth and recent margin/earnings softness.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.64–0.71 (2023–2024) to ~1.36 in 2025, indicating a meaningfully more debt-heavy capital structure. Equity is still sizable (~$2.3B) and returns on equity have been attractive (generally ~20%+), but the higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises risk if the cycle weakens. Overall: strong historical returns, but a notable deterioration in leverage in the most recent year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy: operating cash flow remains strong (roughly ~$0.76B in 2025) and free cash flow is robust (roughly ~$0.70B), with free cash flow close to net income (about ~0.91–0.92x in 2024–2025). However, free cash flow declined in 2024–2025 (negative growth), and operating cash flow covered net income slightly below 1x in 2025, suggesting a modest weakening in cash conversion versus the prior year. Overall: strong ongoing cash production with some recent softening in momentum.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.41B	5.33B	5.19B	5.01B	3.49B
Gross Profit	1.57B	1.62B	1.60B	1.49B	974.39M
EBITDA	1.08B	1.05B	1.03B	922.19M	541.98M
Net Income	521.73M	622.60M	614.25M	555.99M	324.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.73B	4.74B	5.16B	4.61B	4.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.74M	400.32M	848.57M	240.07M	139.78M
Total Debt	3.15B	1.58B	1.64B	1.68B	1.68B
Total Liabilities	4.42B	2.53B	2.60B	2.68B	2.62B
Stockholders Equity	2.32B	2.21B	2.56B	1.93B	1.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	696.89M	706.68M	785.41M	419.42M	347.48M
Operating Cash Flow	756.32M	776.03M	849.41M	495.80M	403.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.99B	-203.52M	-198.17M	-93.91M	-1.32B
Financing Cash Flow	1.02B	-1.02B	-43.84M	-300.07M	729.01M

TopBuild Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 386.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 386.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 491.95, below the 50-day MA of 475.52, and below the 200-day MA of 412.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -21.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BLD.

TopBuild Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIX	82 Outperform	$48.27B	32.26	48.52%	0.20%	27.71%	80.54%
STRL	76 Outperform	$12.61B	32.23	30.17%	―	6.20%	72.81%
MTZ	74 Outperform	$23.50B	42.42	13.08%	―	12.99%	274.10%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BLD	62 Neutral	$10.89B	22.33	23.72%	―	-1.28%	-0.66%
DY	62 Neutral	$10.43B	162.45	18.81%	―	13.19%	33.58%
FLR	55 Neutral	$6.72B	-1.07	-1.14%	―	-1.81%	1228.51%

TopBuild Corporate Events

TopBuild Posts Q4 2025 Results, Highlights Acquisition-Driven Growth

On February 26, 2026, TopBuild reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $1.49 billion, up 13.2% year over year, driven primarily by the acquisitions of SPI and Progressive Roofing, which offset weakness in residential and light commercial new construction. Despite higher sales, profitability metrics, including gross and operating margins, declined as mix and acquisition-related costs weighed on results, although Installation Services maintained a robust 21.0% adjusted EBITDA margin.

For full-year 2025, sales edged up 1.5% to $5.41 billion as seven acquisitions added about $1.2 billion in annual revenue, while volume fell and margins compressed versus 2024. The company reinforced its growth-through-M&A strategy by prioritizing acquisitions for capital deployment, highlighted by the SPI deal that strengthens its leadership in mechanical insulation, and it returned $434.2 million to shareholders via buybacks as it set a 2026 outlook of $5.925 billion to $6.225 billion in sales and $1.005 billion to $1.155 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLD) stock is a Buy with a $620.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TopBuild stock, see the BLD Stock Forecast page.