Black Hills Corp. (BKH)
NYSE:BKH
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Black Hills
(NYSE:BKH)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$81.00
â–²(6.48% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—stable utility profitability but pressured cash generation and leverage considerations—partly offset by solid technical trend signals. Guidance and the earnings call tone are supportive (mid-single-digit EPS growth and strong liquidity), while valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend; merger-related regulatory/execution risk tempers the upside.
Positive Factors
Regulated earnings stability
As a rate‑regulated utility Black Hills benefits from predictable cost recovery and allowed returns tied to its regulated asset base. Stable net margins and resumed revenue growth imply durable cash generation driven by rate cases and infrastructure investment, supporting multi‑year earnings visibility.
Negative Factors
Volatile, often negative free cash flow
Heavy capital spending causes recurring negative free cash flow in several years, forcing reliance on external financing. Persistent negative FCF through investment cycles constrains organic funding for growth, dividends, and deleveraging, raising structural funding and execution risk over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated earnings stability
As a rate‑regulated utility Black Hills benefits from predictable cost recovery and allowed returns tied to its regulated asset base. Stable net margins and resumed revenue growth imply durable cash generation driven by rate cases and infrastructure investment, supporting multi‑year earnings visibility.
Read all positive factors
Black Hills (BKH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.73B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)1.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.4
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth8.56%
EPS Growth1.70%
CountryUS
Employees2,841
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.41
Shares Outstanding76,054,726
10 Day Avg. Volume1,213,066
30 Day Avg. Volume1,028,610
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)2.19
P/FCF Ratio-34.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.50Price Target Upside8.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.40B
Black Hills Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Black Hills Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities. The Electric Utilities segment generates, transmits...
How the Company Makes Money
BKH makes most of its money through regulated utility operations. Its electric utilities earn revenue by delivering electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through regulated rates approved by state public utility commissio...
Black Hills Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized consistent execution: EPS growth (adjusted +5%), maintained credit metrics, successful completion of major projects (Ready Wyoming), a large and fast-growing data center pipeline (>3 GW) with potential meaningful EPS contribution (>10% by 2028), and constructive 2026 guidance (+6% midpoint). Offsetting these positives are higher O&M and financing costs, merger-related expenses and share issuance, increased depreciation, weather sensitivity, and material uncertainty around signing and structuring very large data center projects and obtaining regulatory approvals for the merger and multiple rate filings. Overall, the positives (steady earnings growth, strong liquidity, dividend track record, major project delivery and attractive pipeline) materially outweigh the challenges, though several execution and regulatory risks remain.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS Growth
Reported GAAP EPS of $3.98 and adjusted EPS of $4.10 for 2025, a 5% increase versus $3.91 in 2024 (adjusted for $0.12 of merger-related transaction costs).
Negative Updates
Rising Operating and Financing Costs
O&M increased by $0.36 per share (including $0.12 merger costs); excluding merger costs O&M rose $0.24 per share driven by higher employee/outside services (+$0.13), insurance (+$0.08) and unplanned outages (+$0.05). Financing costs increased $0.33 per share (including $0.25 higher interest expense and $0.19 dilution offset by $0.12 AFUDC).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS Growth
Reported GAAP EPS of $3.98 and adjusted EPS of $4.10 for 2025, a 5% increase versus $3.91 in 2024 (adjusted for $0.12 of merger-related transaction costs).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Black Hills provided 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.25–$4.45 (midpoint = $4.35), which represents roughly 6% year‑over‑year growth from 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.10 (GAAP $3.98, including $0.12 of merger costs); management said it expects to deliver in the upper half of its long‑term 4%–6% EPS growth target (2023 base year). Key financial and operating metrics underpinning the guidance include a $4.7 billion five‑year capital plan (with $900 million invested in 2025), expected 2026 equity need of $50–$70 million (vs. $220 million issued in 2025), maintenance of investment‑grade ratings with target ~55% net debt to total capitalization and 14%–15% FFO-to-debt (100 bps above a 13% downgrade threshold), over $700 million of revolver availability, and recently issued $450 million of 4.55% notes (next maturity $400 million at 3.15% in Jan 2027). Management cited $0.95 of 2025 EPS benefit from new rates/rider recovery, weather impacts (+$0.09 vs 2024; –$0.11 vs normal), O&M headwinds of $0.36 per share (including $0.12 merger costs; ex‑merger +$0.24 with +$0.13 employee/outside services, +$0.08 insurance, +$0.05 outages), financing cost increases of $0.33 (incl. $0.25 higher interest, $0.19 share dilution, +$0.12 AFUDC), and +$0.15 depreciation, while reaffirming a 55%–65% dividend payout target after 56 consecutive years of increases. They also highlighted a >3 GW data‑center pipeline (600 MW expected to be served by 2030 and expected to contribute >10% of consolidated EPS beginning in 2028 under current plans), and noted potential upside from additional contracted or utility‑owned generation and transmission.Black Hills Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.31B | 2.13B | 2.33B | 2.55B | 1.95B |
| Gross Profit | 888.70M | 840.40M | 796.40M | 772.80M | 705.50M |
| EBITDA | 827.40M | 785.30M | 738.40M | 709.50M | 648.50M |
| Net Income | 291.60M | 273.10M | 262.20M | 258.40M | 236.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.87B | 10.02B | 9.62B | 9.62B | 9.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 182.80M | 16.10M | 86.60M | 21.40M | 8.92M |
| Total Debt | 4.70B | 4.38B | 4.40B | 4.67B | 4.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.96B | 6.44B | 6.31B | 6.53B | 6.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.82B | 3.50B | 3.22B | 2.99B | 2.79B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -146.40M | -24.90M | 388.80M | -19.60M | -742.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 673.40M | 719.30M | 944.40M | 584.80M | -64.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -828.20M | -746.00M | -536.70M | -603.90M | -664.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 321.80M | -42.90M | -341.70M | 32.30M | 731.87M |
Black Hills Technical Analysis
Positive
76.07
Price Trends
72.29
Positive
71.44
Positive
65.63
Positive
Market Momentum
1.30
Negative
64.56
Neutral
73.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.70, above the 50-day MA of 72.29, and above the 200-day MA of 65.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKH.
Black Hills Risk Analysis
Black Hills disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Black Hills reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Black Hills Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.74B | 12.26 | 15.36% | 2.54% | -1.99% | -8.73% | |
66 Neutral | $5.73B | 17.38 | 7.85% | 3.91% | 8.56% | 1.70% | |
66 Neutral | $4.45B | 22.16 | 6.28% | 4.09% | 9.06% | -29.09% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
61 Neutral | $2.95B | 21.08 | 10.59% | 2.36% | 9.85% | 11.68% | |
54 Neutral | $3.39B | 16.17 | 7.25% | 5.10% | 1.34% | 4.71% |
* Utilities Sector Average
BKH
Black Hills
75.29
16.52
28.12%
AVA
Avista
41.10
1.36
3.42%
MGEE
MGE Energy
80.22
-8.69
-9.77%
NWE
Northwestern
72.34
16.65
29.89%
OTTR
Otter Tail
89.24
10.31
13.06%
Black Hills Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Black Hills Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay Policies
Positive
May 1, 2026
Black Hills Corp. reported that shareholders at its April 29, 2026 annual meeting elected three Class II directors—Scott M. Prochazka, Teresa A. Taylor and Anne G. Waleski—to three-year terms ending in 2029, reflecting solid investor s...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Black Hills Shareholders Approve Transformative All-Stock Merger
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, shareholders of Black Hills Corp. and NorthWestern Energy Group approved an all-stock merger that will combine the two regulated utilities into Bright Horizon Energy Corporation. At a special meeting, Black Hills investors backed...
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Black Hills Details Pro Forma Merger Financial Disclosures
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Black Hills has filed a current report to furnish historical financial statements for NorthWestern Energy Group and unaudited pro forma combined financial information, reflecting the planned all‑stock merger agreed on August 18, 2025 and una...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.