Black Hills (BKH)
NYSE:BKH
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Black Hills
(NYSE:BKH)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
â–²(5.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven primarily by steady but not accelerating financial fundamentals (stable profitability/ROE but pressured recent revenue/margins and negative free cash flow), supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and ~3.7% yield). Technicals are mildly constructive, and the earnings call adds a positive tilt via reaffirmed guidance and growth pipeline, tempered by financing cost headwinds and regulatory/execution risk.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility business model
Black Hills’ core earnings derive from regulated electric and gas operations where rates are designed to recover prudently incurred costs and provide an authorized return on invested capital. This ratemaking framework yields predictable cash flows and supports steady long‑term earnings as the rate base grows with capital investment.
Negative Factors
Negative and inconsistent free cash flow
TTM negative free cash flow driven by heavy capex erodes internal funding capacity and increases reliance on external financing. Over a multi‑month horizon, persistent negative FCF can pressure credit metrics and raise the probability of additional equity or debt issuance to fund projects and dividends, affecting financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility business model
Black Hills’ core earnings derive from regulated electric and gas operations where rates are designed to recover prudently incurred costs and provide an authorized return on invested capital. This ratemaking framework yields predictable cash flows and supports steady long‑term earnings as the rate base grows with capital investment.
Read all positive factors
Black Hills (BKH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.62B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)941.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth3.58%
EPS Growth-1.83%
CountryUS
Employees2,841
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.86
Shares Outstanding76,128,590
10 Day Avg. Volume945,065
30 Day Avg. Volume941,959
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)2.19
P/FCF Ratio-34.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$81.50Price Target Upside7.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.40B
Black Hills Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Black Hills Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Utilities and Gas Utilities. The Electric Utilities segment generates, transmits...
How the Company Makes Money
BKH makes most of its money through regulated utility operations. Its electric utilities earn revenue by delivering electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through regulated rates approved by state public utility commissio...
Black Hills Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and strategic momentum: management reaffirmed full-year guidance, maintained strong liquidity and credit targets, advanced major projects (Lange II, Ready Wyoming placed in service) and merger progress, and highlighted a deep large-load pipeline with customer-funded reservations. Offsetting these positives were notable near-term headwinds — an unusually warm winter that reduced demand (18¢ per share impact), an adjusted EPS decline versus prior year, higher financing and depreciation costs, merger transaction expenses, and remaining uncertainty on definitive agreements and regulatory approvals tied to large-load projects. On balance, the company demonstrated financial resilience and a clear path for growth, though material execution and regulatory risks remain as the large-load opportunities and merger close over the remainder of the year.Positive Updates
Adjusted and GAAP EPS
GAAP EPS of $1.73 for Q1 2026 (included 5¢ of merger-related costs); adjusted EPS of $1.79 versus $1.87 in Q1 2025 (≈4.3% YoY decline after adjustments).
Negative Updates
Significant Weather Impact
Extremely warm winter significantly reduced demand: weather cost the company 18¢ per share versus Q1 2025 and was 13¢ per share unfavorable versus normal-weather assumptions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted and GAAP EPS
GAAP EPS of $1.73 for Q1 2026 (included 5¢ of merger-related costs); adjusted EPS of $1.79 versus $1.87 in Q1 2025 (≈4.3% YoY decline after adjustments).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Black Hills reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.25–$4.45 (midpoint ≈ 6% growth vs. 2025) and reiterated a 4%–6% long‑term growth target with confidence in delivering in the upper half; Q1 GAAP EPS was $1.73 (including 5¢ of merger costs) and adjusted EPS $1.79 vs. $1.87 a year ago, with very warm weather weighing on results by 18¢ vs. Q1 2025 (13¢ vs. normal). Management highlighted 24¢ per share of new rates/rider recovery margin and 10¢ of lower O&M (4¢ employee, 6¢ other) that largely offset 16¢ of higher financing and depreciation (10¢ financing: 9¢ from new shares, 1¢ interest net of AFUDC; 6¢ depreciation driven in part by the $350M Ready Wyoming project). Other metrics: $4.7B five‑year capital plan, >3 GW data‑center pipeline (2.5+ GW pursued; 600 MW in the plan by 2030), a 1.8 GW project with $201M refundable CIAC to date, credit targets of 14%–15% FFO/debt and ≤55% net debt to total capitalization, expected 2026 equity need $50–70M, $41M equity issued in Q1 under the ATM, ≈$500M revolver availability, a Jan 2027 $400M 3.15% note maturity under review, and a dividend raised in January (56 consecutive years; 55%–65% payout target).Black Hills Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.29B | 2.31B | 2.13B | 2.33B | 2.55B | 1.95B |
| Gross Profit | 814.90M | 888.70M | 840.40M | 796.40M | 772.80M | 705.50M |
| EBITDA | 826.20M | 827.40M | 785.30M | 738.40M | 709.50M | 648.50M |
| Net Income | 288.30M | 291.60M | 273.10M | 262.20M | 258.40M | 236.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.82B | 10.87B | 10.02B | 9.62B | 9.62B | 9.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.40M | 182.80M | 16.10M | 86.60M | 21.40M | 8.92M |
| Total Debt | 4.65B | 4.70B | 4.38B | 4.40B | 4.67B | 4.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.79B | 6.96B | 6.44B | 6.31B | 6.53B | 6.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.95B | 3.82B | 3.50B | 3.22B | 2.99B | 2.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -312.50M | -146.40M | -24.90M | 388.80M | -19.60M | -742.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 621.80M | 673.40M | 719.30M | 944.40M | 584.80M | -64.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -943.00M | -828.20M | -746.00M | -536.70M | -603.90M | -664.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 338.50M | 321.80M | -42.90M | -341.70M | 32.30M | 731.87M |
Black Hills Technical Analysis
Positive
76.07
Price Trends
72.30
Positive
71.81
Positive
67.28
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Positive
53.61
Neutral
44.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.83, above the 50-day MA of 72.30, and above the 200-day MA of 67.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKH.
Black Hills Risk Analysis
Black Hills disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Black Hills reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Black Hills Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.63B | 12.62 | 15.21% | 2.54% | -0.54% | -5.27% | |
67 Neutral | $2.79B | 14.58 | 10.94% | 2.36% | 8.91% | 10.48% | |
66 Neutral | $3.40B | 8.98 | 7.65% | 5.10% | -1.47% | 7.23% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $4.40B | 15.97 | 5.80% | 4.09% | 9.06% | -29.09% | |
64 Neutral | $5.62B | 9.99 | 7.60% | 3.91% | 3.58% | -1.83% |
* Utilities Sector Average
BKH
Black Hills
74.16
18.85
34.07%
AVA
Avista
40.92
4.15
11.27%
MGEE
MGE Energy
75.99
-11.59
-13.23%
NWE
Northwestern
71.79
19.46
37.17%
OTTR
Otter Tail
86.67
11.95
16.00%
Black Hills Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Black Hills Advances All-Stock Merger With NorthWestern Energy
Positive
May 15, 2026
Black Hills Corporation operates as a regulated energy company, providing electric and natural gas utility services through its subsidiaries. NorthWestern Energy Group, its pending merger partner, is likewise a regulated utility with a sizable bas...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Black Hills Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay Policies
Positive
May 1, 2026
Black Hills Corp. reported that shareholders at its April 29, 2026 annual meeting elected three Class II directors—Scott M. Prochazka, Teresa A. Taylor and Anne G. Waleski—to three-year terms ending in 2029, reflecting solid investor s...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Black Hills Shareholders Approve Transformative All-Stock Merger
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, shareholders of Black Hills Corp. and NorthWestern Energy Group approved an all-stock merger that will combine the two regulated utilities into Bright Horizon Energy Corporation. At a special meeting, Black Hills investors backed...
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Black Hills Details Pro Forma Merger Financial Disclosures
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Black Hills has filed a current report to furnish historical financial statements for NorthWestern Energy Group and unaudited pro forma combined financial information, reflecting the planned all‑stock merger agreed on August 18, 2025 and una...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.