MGE Energy (MGEE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.92B
• Dividend Yield: 2.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 135.28K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: 8.26%
• EPS Growth: 12.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 717
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 36,541,847
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 172,661
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 135,282
• PEG Ratio: 11.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 83.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.50
• 1Y Price Target: $73.00
• Price Target Upside: -7.64% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $86.00 ▲(8.81% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (profitability and balance-sheet stability) tempered by weaker free-cash-flow dynamics. Technicals add caution due to a downtrend versus major moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation and dividend are mid-range, while recent corporate actions modestly improve the outlook by simplifying capital structure and securing longer-term funding.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The increase in Q3 revenue indicates a positive growth trajectory, reflecting the company's ability to expand its market presence and enhance its service offerings.

Profitability

Strong profitability with stable margins suggests efficient operations and effective cost management, supporting long-term financial health and shareholder returns.

Balance Sheet Stability

A stable balance sheet with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio indicates prudent financial management, providing resilience against economic fluctuations and supporting future growth.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Challenges in cash flow management could hinder the company's ability to fund new investments and growth initiatives, potentially impacting long-term operational flexibility.

Volatile Revenue Growth

Volatility in revenue growth can pose risks to financial stability and investor confidence, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain consistent growth.

Increased Debt Levels

Rising debt levels may limit financial flexibility and increase interest obligations, potentially affecting the company's ability to invest in future opportunities.

MGE Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGE Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company primarily in Wisconsin. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility Operations; Regulated Gas Utility Operations; Nonregulated Energy Operations; Transmission Investments; and All Other. The company generates, purchases, and distributes electricity; owns or leases electric generation facilities located in Wisconsin and Iowa; and plans, constructs, operates, maintains, and expands transmission facilities to provide transmission services. It also generates electricity from coal-fired, gas-fired, and renewable energy sources, as well as purchases power under short and long-term commitments. As of December 31, 2021, the company generated and distributed electricity to 159,000 customers in Dane County, Wisconsin; and purchased and distributed natural gas to 169,000 customers in seven Wisconsin counties. MGE Energy, Inc.is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

MGE Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to its customers. The company earns money by charging customers for energy consumption based on regulated rates set by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. Additionally, MGE Energy has diversified its revenue streams by investing in renewable energy projects, such as solar and wind, which not only help in reducing costs but also align with regulatory incentives for cleaner energy. The company may also receive supplemental income from energy efficiency programs and initiatives designed to reduce overall energy demand. Partnerships with local governments and organizations for community solar projects further enhance revenue opportunities by attracting more customers interested in renewable options.

MGE Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and efficient operations (high EBIT/EBITDA margins) support the score, and the balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and healthy ROE. The main constraint is cash flow: negative free cash flow growth and a low free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio indicate weaker cash conversion and potential investment/cash management pressure.

Income Statement

MGE Energy demonstrates strong profitability with consistent gross and net profit margins over the years. The TTM data shows a slight improvement in revenue growth compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operational management. However, the revenue growth rate has been volatile, with some periods of decline, which could pose a risk if not managed.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity is healthy, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure, although the debt levels have slightly increased over time, which could impact future financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a high coverage ratio indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth and low free cash flow to net income ratio highlight potential challenges in cash management and investment activities. The company needs to address these issues to ensure long-term cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	725.52M	676.94M	690.43M	714.52M	606.58M	538.63M
Gross Profit	407.22M	278.83M	269.04M	243.92M	213.55M	203.94M
EBITDA	300.05M	272.68M	276.28M	249.37M	210.97M	209.55M
Net Income	134.61M	120.57M	117.70M	110.95M	105.76M	92.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.99B	2.83B	2.68B	2.52B	2.37B	2.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.81M	21.30M	11.14M	11.60M	17.44M	44.74M
Total Debt	841.44M	787.45M	780.01M	727.17M	641.92M	594.11M
Total Liabilities	1.69B	1.60B	1.54B	1.44B	1.34B	1.28B
Stockholders Equity	1.30B	1.23B	1.14B	1.08B	1.03B	976.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.77M	40.86M	15.49M	-21.30M	-15.64M	-30.70M
Operating Cash Flow	296.72M	277.78M	237.56M	153.74M	137.53M	172.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-335.72M	-241.49M	-230.02M	-180.15M	-156.97M	-210.41M
Financing Cash Flow	34.62M	-26.83M	-10.48M	25.54M	-8.76M	59.19M

MGE Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 79.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGEE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 79.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.01, below the 50-day MA of 79.47, and below the 200-day MA of 84.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGEE.

MGE Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVA	77 Outperform	$3.36B	17.55	7.31%	5.10%	2.14%	-6.51%
OTTR	77 Outperform	$3.74B	13.46	16.10%	2.54%	-3.18%	-8.62%
NWE	74 Outperform	$4.17B	19.21	7.62%	4.09%	4.90%	-4.42%
MGEE	69 Neutral	$2.92B	21.68	10.80%	2.36%	8.26%	12.47%
BKH	68 Neutral	$5.51B	18.42	7.90%	3.91%	7.03%	6.64%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%

MGE Energy Corporate Events

MGE Energy Retires Final First Mortgage Bonds, Ends Indenture

On January 27, 2026, Madison Gas and Electric Company (MGE) redeemed the remaining $1.2 million of its outstanding 7.70% First Mortgage Bonds due 2028, which were the last series of first mortgage bonds issued under its longstanding 1946 Indenture of Mortgage and Deed of Trust. With no first mortgage bonds remaining, MGE satisfied and discharged the Indenture, is recording the discharge to remove the related lien from its utility plant assets in the relevant jurisdictions, and will no longer issue additional first mortgage bonds under that Indenture, simplifying its capital structure and releasing those assets from mortgage security.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGEE) stock is a Buy with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGE Energy stock, see the MGEE Stock Forecast page.

MGE Energy Issues New Senior Notes Under Purchase Agreement

On January 22, 2026, MGE issued an aggregate $90 million of unsecured senior notes in three tranches—a $30 million 5.05% Series A due January 31, 2036, a $30 million 5.25% Series B due January 31, 2041, and a $30 million 5.79% Series C due January 31, 2056—under a new Note Purchase Agreement with institutional purchasers. The notes, which are outside MGE’s existing 1998 indenture, carry semiannual interest payments starting July 31, 2026, are optionally redeemable with a make-whole premium (subject to limited maturity-window exceptions), and must be prepaid at par plus accrued interest, but without a premium, following certain change-of-control events tied to ownership of MGE Energy and the company’s investment-grade ratings. The agreement imposes leverage and structural protections, including a cap on the ratio of consolidated indebtedness to total capitalization at 65% and restrictions on issuing priority debt above 20% of consolidated assets, effectively limiting additional secured borrowing and requiring equal and ratable security for these notes if the principal bank credit facilities are ever secured, thereby preserving noteholder protections while providing MGE funding flexibility for capital spending and other corporate obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGEE) stock is a Sell with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGE Energy stock, see the MGEE Stock Forecast page.

MGE Energy Prepares for EEI Financial Conference 2025

On November 7, 2025, MGE Energy, Inc. shared a financial presentation on its Investor Relations website. The company is set to engage with investors at the 2025 EEI Financial Conference in Hollywood, Florida, from November 9-11, 2025, indicating its proactive approach to investor relations and market engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGEE) stock is a Hold with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGE Energy stock, see the MGEE Stock Forecast page.